投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 生物柴油属性，马棕产量和 出口，印尼出口，主产国关税 政策，国内到港、库存，替 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆需求前景向好推升美豆期价创一年半最高。同时美豆压榨量创历史新高也为美豆期价 构成支撑。短期市场在美豆供应偏紧与需求不及预期之间震荡反复。国内豆类市场成本驱动与产业链 压力博弈持续。短期豆类期价高位动荡加剧。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 7 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 核心逻辑：尽管财政部宣布自 11 月 10 日起对美豆加征关税税率调整为 13%，但这一税率仍远高于巴 西大豆的 3%，使得美豆在价格上缺乏竞争优势。市场对美豆的出口预期因此趋于理性。国内贸易商 前期高价合同普遍解套，整体以获利了结和滚动拿货为主，追涨动能不足。目前豆粕市场正从 "政 策情绪驱动" 向 "基本面现实" 回归。虽然油厂因压榨利润亏损而挺价意愿较强，但国内豆粕库 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated October 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of commodities in the agricultural futures sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with prices under pressure. Palm oil production is increasing while demand is weakening, and the substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil is rising. Overall, the short - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures are all expected to be weakly volatile [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic soybean meal market has an ample supply of soybeans, high port inventories, and some oil mills face the risk of inventory overstocking. Downstream breeding losses have deteriorated, leading to cautious purchasing by feed enterprises and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The short - term futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7][6] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil production has increased while demand has decreased. The substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil has risen, and domestic palm oil inventories have increased. The market still depends on the biodiesel policy expectations and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6] - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and core logics of different agricultural commodity futures, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday views [5][6][7]. - For different futures varieties, the core logics are affected by multiple factors such as international policies, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic** - Optimistic signals from China - US negotiations have led to a slight decline in the high premium of Brazilian soybeans. But before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, the high - premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is hard to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The far - month contracts still have dual support of supply and cost, and the short - term futures price fluctuates at a high level [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic** - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures price. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the futures price fluctuates at a high level with strong support below. After continuous short - term rises, short - term capital closing positions cause the futures price to fluctuate at a high level, but the overall strong trend remains [7]. 3.3. Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term and medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating weakly, affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating strongly, influenced by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term and intraday strong, medium - term oscillating, reference view oscillating strongly, affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].