Tabl e_Title 2025 年 9 月 29 日 大类资产运行周报（20250922-20250926） 美国通胀数据符合预期 大宗商品整体 上涨 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -1.14% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.41% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.54% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.61% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.44% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.55% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.02% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.92% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源：Wind 资讯 相关 ...

1. Index Trends - On September 25th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.01%, closing at 3853.3 points with a trading volume of 1001.211 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of 0.67%, closing at 13445.9 points with a trading volume of 1369.879 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of -0.37% and a trading volume of 464.745 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7521.32, a closing price of 7506.51, a daily high of 7563.08, and a low of 7487.12 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index had a change of 0.24% and a trading volume of 493.047 billion yuan, with an opening price of 7325.66, a closing price of 7341.32, a daily high of 7379.61, and a low of 7312.35 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index had a change of 0.6% and a trading volume of 669.867 billion yuan, with an opening price of 4563.98, a closing price of 4593.49, a daily high of 4613.95, and a low of 4558.84 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index had a change of 0.45% and a trading volume of 158.667 billion yuan, with an opening price of 2944.73, a closing price of 2952.74, a daily high of 2962.18, and a low of 2941.87 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 Index rose -27.71 points from the previous closing price. Media and communication sectors significantly pulled the index up, while basic chemicals, machinery, and electronics sectors pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 17.61 points from the previous closing price. Computer, machinery, and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the non - banking financial sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 27.42 points from the previous closing price. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and communication sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the banking sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 13.23 points from the previous closing price. Non - ferrous metals, pharmaceutical biology, and electronics sectors significantly pulled the index up, while food and beverage and banking sectors pulled it down [3]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of -69.91, IM01 of -156.48, IM02 of -236.36, and IM03 of -449.96 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of -51.53, IC01 of -122.3, IC02 of -177.77, and IC03 of -356.12 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of -8.53, IF01 of -24.0, IF02 of -33.81, and IF03 of -65.69 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 2.04, IH01 of -0.05, IH02 of 1.44, and IH03 of -0.53 [13]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc.) [21]. - For IC, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc.) [23]. - For IF, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc.) [24]. - For IH, from 09:45 to 15:00, there were data on point differences and annualized costs for different roll - over combinations (e.g., IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc.) [26].

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by capital inflow and valuation enhancement due to declining interest rates, with a notable increase in retail investor participation [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market increase has seen a rise of over 1000 points, yet the overall market valuation remains reasonable without signs of a bubble [3][4] - A-shares financing balance has surpassed the peak levels of 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is significantly lower than in 2015, indicating a more stable market environment [8][9] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 remains within a rational range, with the CSI 300's P/E at approximately 14 times compared to 29 times for the S&P 500 [13][14] Group 2: Growth and Earnings - Sustained market growth relies on continuous corporate earnings growth, with A-share companies' net profit growth averaging only 2.5% for the first half of 2025, raising concerns about future market momentum [21][17] - The net profit of A-share companies reached 2.99 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 2.5% increase from the previous year, with significant growth in sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy [20][21] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing supportive macroeconomic policies in the fourth quarter and into 2025 to bolster market confidence [4][39] - The market is currently in a more rational state compared to previous years, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than speculative bubbles [23][12] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The ongoing trend of declining interest rates is likely to continue, making equities with high dividend yields and low volatility attractive to investors [9][28] - Diversification across various asset classes, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bonds, and commodities, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [31][28]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by capital inflow and valuation enhancement due to declining interest rates, with a notable increase in personal investor participation [3][10][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market increase has seen a rise of over 1000 points, yet the overall market valuation remains reasonable without signs of a bubble [3][10]. - A-shares financing balance has surpassed the peak levels of 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is significantly lower than in 2015, indicating a more stable market environment [3][13]. - The average P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is around 14 times, compared to 29 times for the S&P 500 and 41 times for the Nasdaq, suggesting that A-shares are still reasonably valued [18][20]. Group 2: Growth and Earnings - The growth potential of the market is contingent on sustained corporate earnings growth, with A-share companies' net profit growth averaging only 2.5% in the first half of 2025 [27]. - The net profit of A-share companies for the first half of 2025 reached 2.99 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy [25][27]. - The market's rebound is influenced by the decline in deposit rates, which enhances valuations, but long-term bullish trends require continuous earnings growth [27]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The Chinese government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market, which is expected to support a stable upward trend in the market [8][9]. - There are numerous policy tools available to support the market, and a cautious optimism is advised as the market is not expected to experience extreme fluctuations [6][42]. - The current market environment differs from previous years, with a shift from an expanding to a contracting balance sheet for households, which limits the potential for excessive market bubbles [5][43]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The A-share market is characterized by rationality, with significant differentiation in returns among actively managed equity funds, highlighting the importance of underlying asset selection [28]. - A diversified investment strategy across various markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bonds, and commodities, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [34][37]. - The ongoing advancements in technology, particularly in AI, present significant growth opportunities, but investors should remain cautious and avoid speculative narratives [38][39].

Group 1 - The current market is experiencing a "strong stock and weak bond" seesaw pattern, with the equity market breaking through key levels while the bond market remains under pressure [2][4] - Historical analysis shows that there have been six notable "strong stock and weak bond" periods in the past decade, with the most recent one starting in late June this year [2][4] - The initiation of this pattern typically occurs when stock valuations are low and attractive, while bond yields have already declined significantly after a bull market [4][8] Group 2 - The bond market's performance during these "strong stock and weak bond" periods has shown that the adjustment in bond yields is often not closely correlated with stock market movements, but rather with the factors driving stock price increases and central bank monetary policy [15][20] - In previous cycles, the duration of the "strong stock and weak bond" periods ranged from 15 to 456 days, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing gains between 13% and 98% [15][26] - The bond market's yield curve indicates that short-term bonds are more influenced by monetary policy and liquidity conditions than by stock market performance [15][20] Group 3 - The conclusion of previous "strong stock and weak bond" patterns has typically been driven by a weakening equity market, often due to regulatory tightening, rapid stock price increases leading to profit-taking, or external factors [26][29] - Market expectations regarding policy changes can also lead to the end of the "seesaw" pattern, as seen in notable periods such as April 2019 and October 2024 [29][30] - The current outlook suggests that the probability of transitioning to a "dual bull" market is low, with continued pressure from rising equity prices on the bond market [32][34] Group 4 - The current sentiment in the bond market indicates a potential for a short-term rebound, particularly if the 10-year government bond yield can break below the critical level of 1.75% [40] - The recent rapid increase in valuations in the technology sector may lead to a slowdown in further stock price increases, which could alleviate some pressure on the bond market [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the week from August 18th to 22nd, at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released a dovish signal, causing the expectation of a September US dollar interest rate cut to rise. The US and the EU reached an agreement on the trade agreement framework, and the US dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks were divided, while bonds and commodities rose, with commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of US - dollar - denominated performance. In China, the stock market rose, while the bond and commodity markets were weak, with stocks > bonds > commodities. Liquidity and policy expectations resonated, driving the rise of the domestic equity market. With the Fed releasing a rate - cut signal, the subsequent market sentiment changes should be monitored [3][6][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks Divided, Bonds and Commodities Rising - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of the market regarding Powell's speech, the global stock market first declined and then rose. European stocks had the highest increase, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index continued to fluctuate at a low level. For example, MSCI Europe rose 1.42% weekly, while MSCI Asia - Pacific fell 0.56% [7][11][13]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: Powell signaled a cautious US dollar interest rate cut. His statement made it difficult for Fed officials to reach a broad policy consensus. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 7BP to 4.26% weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was better than expected and the previous value. The expectation of a September interest rate cut led to a 0.12% weekly decline in the US dollar index. Major non - US currencies against the US dollar had mixed performances, and the RMB exchange rate was oscillating strongly [17]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut weakened the US dollar index, promoting the rise of the international commodity market. Major industrial products and agricultural products generally rose [19]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rising, Bond and Commodity Markets Weak - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: The positive momentum of market risk appetite remained unchanged. Major broad - based A - share indexes generally rose, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. The growth style was more prominent, and the communication and electronics sectors had the highest increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.49% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: The central bank's net investment in the open - market operations was 126.52 billion yuan. The capital supply tightened, and the bond market declined weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the energy sector rose, while the black sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.44% weekly [25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - Pay attention to the sentiment changes in the domestic equity market. The resonance of liquidity and policy expectations drove the rise of the domestic equity market. Coupled with the Fed's rate - cut signal, monitor the subsequent market sentiment changes [26].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the relationship between the equity market, specifically the 中证 500 Index, and the bond market, particularly the 10-year government bond yield. Core Insights and Arguments - There exists a "seesaw effect" between the stock market and the bond market, where the 中证 500 Index and the 10-year government bond yield are positively correlated. Specifically, for every 100-point increase in the 中证 500 Index, the 10-year bond yield rises by approximately 0.9 basis points [1][2][5]. - The Bernanke three-factor model effectively decomposes the yield of the 10-year government bond, achieving an R-squared value of 0.85 when fitted to data since 2016. This model uses the 7-day reverse repo rate as a proxy for short-term rates, current CPI for inflation expectations, and the difference between social financing and M2 to represent economic conditions [1][4][7]. - The relationship between the 中证 500 Index and the 10-year bond yield shows a leading effect, indicating that an increase in the stock index can lead to a rise in bond yields in the following month [2][11]. - The bond market has already absorbed the impact of the recent rise in the equity market, with an increase of about 4-5 basis points in the bond yield since mid-June [14]. - If the equity market rises by an additional 5%, it could exert an extra pressure of about 3 basis points on the bond market, pushing yields to a range of 1.70% to 1.75%. A further 10% increase in the equity market could raise yields by approximately 6 basis points, resulting in a range of 1.75% to 1.80% [2][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Different equity indices have varying degrees of influence on the 10-year bond yield. The 中证 1,000 and 中证 2000 indices show weaker correlation with the bond market compared to larger indices like the 上证综指 and 深证成指 [8][9]. - The structural integrity of the model is affected by the inclusion of large-cap indices, which can disrupt the original model's structure, particularly the impact of social financing minus M2 [9]. - The current market environment has led to a notable increase in the correlation between the 中证 500 Index and the 10-year bond yield, a phenomenon not seen in the past decade. This is attributed to stable fundamental and monetary conditions [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the commodity market showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the CSI Commodity Futures Index rising slightly by 0.20%. Positive returns mainly came from gold, silver, and copper, while negative returns were mainly from rebar, rubber, and soda ash [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, potentially indicating that the PPI sequence is in the process of bottoming out and rebounding. Microscopically, the sector index trends reflect certain operational pressures in the steel and chemical industries [2]. - Investors should gradually reduce their reliance on fixed - income assets and practice the methodology of stock - bond - commodity asset allocation, increasing the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [2]. - The CSI Commodity Index has shown a relatively independent and excellent performance compared to overseas indices, but the recent increase in correlation needs attention. Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the commodity market presented a narrow - range oscillation. The CSI Commodity Index rose slightly by 0.20% annually, with an amplitude of only 10.27%. It was difficult to form a long - term trend, showing an inverted V - shaped oscillation after a strong start [9]. - Driven by frequent macro - events, the commodity market was repeatedly disturbed by policies and geopolitics. With the global economy still bottoming out, the demand side was weak, especially for industrial products. Three macro black - swan events occurred in H1 [12][14]. - There were two obvious characteristics in the commodity market: the significant differentiation between agricultural and industrial products, and the further differentiation within commodities due to different types of event shocks [15]. 3.2 Index Return Attribution 3.2.1 Roll Yield Contribution - The roll yield in H1 2025 was positive overall, at 1.07%, an improvement compared to 2024, possibly suggesting that the global economic growth is bottoming out. Most months had positive roll yields, except for March which had a large negative value [20]. 3.2.2 Sector Return Contribution - In H1 2025, the trends of industrial and agricultural products diverged. The agricultural product market had a small price increase and relatively low volatility, while the industrial product market had a large price decline and relatively large amplitude fluctuations. Agricultural products outperformed industrial products in most months [23]. 3.2.3 Variety Return Contribution - At the sector level, black and energy - chemical sectors mostly made negative return contributions, while precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products mostly made positive return contributions. At the variety level, gold, silver, and copper had large positive return contributions, while rebar, rubber, and soda ash had large negative return contributions [24]. 3.3 Macro - Micro Representativeness 3.3.1 Macro Level: The CSI Commodity Index Leads PPI by About 2 Months - The CSI Commodity Index's year - on - year sequence is highly correlated with the PPI year - on - year and can lead by about 2 months. Recently, the commodity index's year - on - year sequence has bottomed out and rebounded, perhaps indicating that the PPI sequence is bottoming out and rebounding [25]. 3.3.2 Micro Level: The Sector Index Moves in Sync with the Industry's Total Profits - The year - on - year sequence of the sub - sector index is highly correlated with the year - on - year sequence of the corresponding industry's total profits. The energy - chemical futures index is in the process of bottoming out, and the steel futures index is still finding its bottom [29]. 3.4 Comparison of Major Asset Classes - In the long - term, the commodity market has similar returns but lower risks compared to the equity market. In H1 2025, the commodity market's risk indicators were still better than those of the equity market [38][39]. - The current risk - free interest rate is quite low, and the investment cost - performance of bonds has declined significantly. Investors should gradually practice the methodology of major asset allocation and increase the proportion of commodities in the portfolio [40]. - Since 2024, the correlation between the commodity market and the equity market has been increasing. In H1 2025, the correlation remained relatively high, but it decreased rapidly at the end of June [43]. 3.5 Comparison with Overseas Indices - In the long - term, the CSI Commodity Index has obvious advantages in both returns and risks compared to overseas mainstream commodity indices. In H1 2025, it still had better performance in risk control [47][48]. - The correlation between the CSI Commodity Index and overseas mainstream commodity indices increased rapidly in early April and remained high in Q2, mainly due to the impact of the tariff shock [50]. 3.6 Application Cases - Adding an appropriate amount of commodities to the traditional stock - commodity portfolio can significantly improve the return - risk ratio of the portfolio. Replacing half of the stocks in the traditional 40 - 60 stock - bond portfolio with commodities can significantly reduce the portfolio's volatility and drawdown while keeping the returns similar [54][60].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3472, with a gain of 1.40% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 985, down 0.35% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.3 [1] - The Shanghai 180 Index closed at 8764, gaining 1.38% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 [1] - The Shanghai 380 Index closed at 5541, up 1.04% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for main board stocks reached 222.20 billion [2] - Bond trading volume was significant at 1192.18 billion, while repurchase agreements totaled 1125.20 billion [2] - The trading volume for the STAR Market stocks was 51.19 billion [2] Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization for main board stocks is 48.3 trillion [3] - The STAR Market stocks have a market capitalization of 699.22 billion [3] - The total bond custody value is 18214.9 billion [3] Fund and ETF Data - The total fund market value is 3306.5 billion, with ETF shares totaling 1772.2 billion [4] - The ETF market value is 3159.3 billion, with a total of 1736.8 billion ETF shares [4] Stock Connect - The trading volume for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 266.6 billion for Shanghai stocks and 304.7 billion for Hong Kong stocks [5] Options Market - There are 500 listed contracts in the stock options market, with a weekly transaction value of 661.56 billion [6] - The total open interest in options is 550.31 million [6] IPO and Financing Activities - In the main board, there were 77 refinancing cases raising 13.76 billion, while the STAR Market had 22 refinancing cases raising 2.23 billion [7] - A total of 159 bonds were issued, raising 93.2 billion [7] Project Dynamics - The main board has received a total of 215 applications, with 69 already reviewed [8] - The STAR Market has received 969 applications, with 649 already reviewed [10] Regulatory Overview - From June 30 to July 4, the Shanghai Stock Exchange processed 60 bond issuance applications totaling 2340.63 billion [11] - The exchange issued 17 regulatory letters and conducted investigations into 139 cases of abnormal trading behavior [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, with the significant easing of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the Senate's procedural vote, the dollar index declined weekly. Globally, stocks and bonds rose while commodities fell significantly. In China, the stock market rose, the bond market fluctuated, and commodities declined. The market's focus shifted to the global macro - economy, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations as the 90 - day tariff exemption period approaches its end [3][6][26] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Rise, Commodities Fall Significantly - **Global Stock Market Overview: Major Stock Markets Rise Universally** - From June 23 to June 27, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment boosted equity assets. Major global stock markets generally rose, with US stocks leading in gains. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index remained low. For example, MSCI US rose 3.45% weekly, MSCI Europe rose 3.04%, and MSCI Asia - Pacific rose 3.15% [8][11][12] - **Global Bond Market Overview: Expectations of Dollar Interest Rate Cuts Increase** - Fed Chairman Powell's remarks in the congressional hearing raised expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, causing the yields of medium - and long - term US bonds to decline. The 10 - year US bond yield dropped 9BP to 4.29% weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds. For instance, the global high - yield bond index rose 1.10% weekly [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview: The Dollar Index Declines Weekly** - Due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment and the increase in expectations of dollar interest rate cuts, the dollar index dropped significantly, once falling below the 97 - integer mark. Most non - US currencies appreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate rose. The dollar index fell 1.52% weekly [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview: International Oil Prices Drop Sharply** - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices and a subsequent correction in international gold prices. Most major agricultural products fell, while non - ferrous metal prices rose. For example, the S&P GSCI Energy Index dropped 10.69% weekly [19][20] 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Rises, Bond Market Fluctuates, Commodities Fall - **Domestic Stock Market Overview: Major A - share Broad - based Indexes Rise Weekly** - With the easing of international geopolitical conflicts, major A - share broad - based indexes rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed outstandingly. Sectors such as comprehensive finance and computer led in gains, while the petroleum and petrochemical sector performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91% weekly [22] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview: The Bond Market Fluctuates Narrowly** - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in the open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan. The capital situation was relatively stable overall. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Generally, credit bonds > corporate bonds > government bonds. For example, the ChinaBond Credit Bond Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.02% weekly [23] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview: The Commodity Market Drops Significantly** - The domestic commodity market declined overall. Among major commodity sectors, non - ferrous metals led in gains, while the energy sector performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index rose 2.71% weekly, while the Nanhua Energy Index dropped 8.78% weekly [24] 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Progress of US Tariff Policy - The market's focus has shifted to the global macro - economy. As the 90 - day US tariff exemption period nears its end, attention should be paid to the progress of tariff negotiations [26]