拟回购股份彰显发展信心，智驾新品及出 口加快发展 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 60.55、70.86、82.90 亿元，可比公司 26 年平均 PE 估值 21 倍，目标价 14.91 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 长安自主品牌销量低于预期、长安合资品牌销量低于预期、行业价格战影响盈利。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 151,298 | 159,733 | 180,654 | 200,457 | 219,509 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.8% | 5.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 10,447 | 6,624 | 6,275 | 7,366 | 8,641 | | 同比增长 (%) | 36.9% | -36.6% | -5.3% | 17.4% | 17.3% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 11,327 | 7, ...

Group 1: Share Buyback Plan - The company plans to repurchase shares with a total amount not less than RMB 1 billion and not exceeding RMB 2 billion, using its own funds through centralized bidding [1] - The repurchased shares will be used to reduce the company's registered capital, reflecting confidence in the company's strategic development and intrinsic value [1] - This buyback is part of a broader strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize the capital structure, following previous actions like mid-term dividends and executive share purchases [1] Group 2: Product Development Strategy - The company aims to launch a total of 43 new models over the next three years, including 13 sedans, 20 SUVs, 1 MPV, 3 pickups, and 6 commercial vehicles [2] - Of these, 8 will be energy-efficient fuel vehicles and 35 will be new energy vehicles, focusing on creating a core product matrix in the domestic market [2] - In the overseas market, the company plans to introduce 26 new models across over 140 countries and regions [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company will invest over 5% of its revenue annually in R&D during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to attract over 10,000 core talents and 400 top industry experts [3] - It plans to release over 160 new technologies in key areas such as AI, software, and battery technology [3] - The collaboration with CATL on sodium-ion batteries aims to produce the world's first mass-produced sodium battery passenger vehicle, enhancing safety and efficiency [5] Group 4: Product Specifications - The Avita 06T features a cross-border design with dimensions of 4940×1960×1475mm and a wheelbase of 2940mm, optimizing rear passenger space and trunk capacity [6] - It will be equipped with Huawei's latest laser radar for enhanced environmental perception and safety [6] - The vehicle will offer both range-extended and pure electric powertrains, with the pure electric version achieving a CLTC range of over 740 km [6] Group 5: Autonomous Driving and Robotics - The company is currently testing L3 autonomous driving in limited areas, with plans to expand nationwide and introduce corresponding models under the Changan and Avita brands [7] - In robotics, the company is implementing a "1+N+X" strategy, focusing on humanoid robots and various applications across different scenarios [8] - The strategy includes collaboration with leading tech firms to develop advanced computing facilities and integrate core technologies for autonomous and intelligent applications [8]

Sales Performance - In 2025, Changan Automobile's total sales reached 2.913 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, marking a nine-year high [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales exceeded 1.1 million units, up 51% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 97.3% during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - Overseas sales reached 637,000 units in 2025, an 18.9% increase, with a CAGR of 50.5% during the same period [1] - The sales target for 2026 is set at 3.3 million units, a 13.3% increase, with NEV sales projected at 1.4 million units (up 26.2%) and overseas sales at 750,000 units (up 17.7%) [5] Brand Development - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Changan launched three smart NEV brands: Avita, Deep Blue, and Changan Qiyuan [2] - Avita has maintained over 10,000 units in monthly sales for 10 consecutive months, while Deep Blue surpassed 700,000 units in sales within three years [2] - A total of 24 NEV models were launched, including 6 from Avita, 6 from Deep Blue, and 7 from Changan Qiyuan [2] Technological Advancements - Changan's self-developed battery brand "Jinzhongzhao" has superior thermal insulation performance, outperforming the industry by 30% [2] - The company has introduced the world's first multi-in-one electric drive and a hybrid engine with a thermal efficiency of 44.39% [2] - The "Beidou Tianshu" intelligent safety plan has evolved to version 2.0, focusing on comprehensive safety across various dimensions [3] Global Expansion - Changan's global sales network expanded from 63 countries in 2020 to 117 countries by 2025 [4] - The company established 7 spare parts centers and 5 service engineering centers globally, covering over 100 countries [4] - The number of overseas models increased from 17 to 41 during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including 25 fuel vehicles and 16 NEVs [4] Future Goals - By 2028, Changan aims to achieve cumulative sales of 40 million units for Chinese brands and break through 5 million units in annual production and sales by 2030, with NEVs accounting for over 60% [5] - The company plans to launch 43 new models over the next three years, including 35 NEVs and 8 fuel-efficient vehicles [6] - Continuous investment of over 5% of revenue in R&D is planned, focusing on AI, software, and next-generation battery technologies [7]