财报公布后，包括AMD、博通在内的AI生态系统相关股票最初受到提振，但随后均随大盘回落。德意志银行分析师Ross Seymore虽认可业绩亮 眼，但指出股票"估值合理"，维持中性评级。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会议上直言： 有很多关于AI泡沫的讨论，但从我们的角度看，情况截然不同。 这一表态试图打消市场疑虑。然而，分析认为指望黄仁勋承认泡沫存在本就不现实——没有哪个"卖铲子"的人会告诉淘金者山里没有金子。 业绩超预期但仍存争议 英伟达本次财报表现超过了市场的最乐观预期。 公司预计第四季度营收将达到约650亿美元，显著高于市场预期。更引人注目的是，黄仁勋在华盛顿的演讲中透露，未来六个财季，仅Blackwell 和Rubin产品线在海外市场的销售额就将达到5000亿美元。 Quilter Cheviot全球科技研究主管Ben Barringer表示，英伟达在财报电话会议上"试图反驳几乎所有看空理由"，包括扩展定律、超大规模客户资本 支出以及主权AI等各个层面。 华尔街见闻提及，例如面对市场关注的"循环融资"风险。黄仁勋解释称，对OpenAI、Anthropic等公司的战略投资是为了深化技术合作、扩大 CUDA ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the market has largely priced in the growth potential of NVIDIA's new Blackwell architecture chips, and while Q2 performance and guidance are solid and generally meet expectations, they may still fall short of the heightened market anticipation, potentially leading to downward pressure on the stock in the short term [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q2 revenue reached $46.7 billion, marking the lowest year-over-year growth rate in over two years, yet it still exceeded analyst expectations. The guidance for Q3 revenue is projected at a midpoint of $54 billion, aligning closely with market expectations but perceived as "lukewarm" and lacking excitement [3][4]. - Following the earnings report, NVIDIA's stock fell over 3% in after-hours trading [4]. Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Future Performance - Goldman Sachs identifies four critical factors that will determine NVIDIA's future trajectory: customer demand and supply chain issues, long-term revenue visibility and new product launches, the status of the China business, and trends in gross margins [7][8]. - Investor focus is on the sustainability of demand for AI chips and any potential supply chain constraints [9]. - There is also interest in the company's revenue visibility for 2026 and details regarding the next-generation Rubin product line [9]. - Additional details regarding NVIDIA's China business are crucial, especially after management confirmed that no H20 chips were shipped to China this quarter [10]. - Investors will closely monitor future gross margin trends to assess the company's pricing power and profit outlook amid intense competition [11]. Group 3: Investment Rating and Target Price - Despite potential short-term stock pressure, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on NVIDIA, setting a 12-month target price of $200, based on an estimated normalized EPS of $5.75 and a P/E ratio of 35 [12].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's performance was solid but did not exceed expectations, leading to concerns about its ability to meet high market expectations [1][4]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $46.7 billion, marking the lowest year-on-year growth rate in over two years, yet still above analyst expectations [1]. - The guidance for Q3 revenue is set at a midpoint of $54 billion, aligning closely with market expectations but perceived as lackluster [1]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Nvidia's stock fell over 3% in after-hours trading [2]. Analyst Insights - Goldman Sachs noted that while Nvidia's quarterly performance and guidance were stable and met Wall Street expectations, they may not satisfy the previously high market expectations, potentially leading to downward pressure on the stock [4]. - Key factors influencing Nvidia's future include customer demand and supply chain issues, long-term revenue visibility, details on the next-generation Rubin product line, and the status of its China business [5]. Future Considerations - Investors are particularly focused on the sustainability of AI chip demand and any potential supply chain constraints [5]. - The company has not shipped H20 chips to China this quarter, raising questions about its business in that region [5]. - Future gross margin trends will be closely monitored to assess Nvidia's pricing power and profitability in a competitive landscape [5]. Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Nvidia with a 12-month price target of $200, based on a normalized EPS of $5.75 and a P/E ratio of 35 [6]. - The report highlights four key risks that investors should be aware of, including potential slowdowns in AI infrastructure spending, increased competition from rivals like AMD, and supply chain limitations [6][7].