超越英伟达的依然是TA自己—— 2026财年，英伟达最后一份季度财报出炉。不出意料，又是连破三个纪录： 单季度营收达681亿美元（约4678亿元），同比增长73%，环比增长20%。 数据中心季度营收623亿美元（约4280亿元），同比增长75%，环比增长22%。 公司全年营收2159亿美元（约14831亿元），同比增长65%。 这份成绩可以说让资本市场吃了"定心丸"，"AI鬼故事"的阴霾一扫而空……财报后，英伟达盘后股价一度涨超3.7%。 英伟达最新季度财报 从财务指标入手，"猛涨"依旧是英伟达财报的基调。 2026财年（即2025年）第四季度，公司营业收入为681亿美元（约4678亿元），同比增长73%，环比增长20%。 2026财年全年营收2159亿美元（约14831亿元），同比增长65%。 透过业务基本盘进一步感知，还是从数据中心、游戏、专业可视化，以及汽车四个方面去展开。 英伟达业务的绝对核心数据中心，第四财季营收623亿美元，同比增长75%，环比增长22%；全年营收1937亿美元，同比增长68%。 数据中心业务的增长，主要来自平台转型在背后推动，Blackwell架构全面放量，推理算力需求呈现指数级 ...

经济观察网根据2026年2月25日的市场数据和分析，英伟达股价当日表现强势，主要受到即将发布的季 度财报预期推动。 市场对英伟达2026财年第四季度(截至2026年1月31日)财报的乐观预期是主要推动力。华尔街普遍预计 其营收将达658亿-662亿美元，同比增长68%，每股收益(EPS)预计为1.47-1.52美元。数据中心业务作为 核心增长引擎，预计营收超600亿美元，同比增长约69%。此外，新一代Blackwell架构芯片的放量(当季 销售额或达110亿美元)以及与Meta等公司的合作消息提振了市场情绪。 截至2月25日收盘，英伟达股价报196.15美元，当日上涨1.71%，创下三个月新高。当日开盘价为194.45 美元，最高触及196.56美元，最低为193.80美元，振幅1.43%。半导体板块整体上涨1.86%，纳斯达克指 数上涨0.92%。 股价异动原因 行业政策现状 尽管英伟达估值处于历史低位(远期市盈率不足24倍，接近五年最低)，但投资者关注点从"增长是否强 劲"转向"增长能否持续"。期权市场显示，交易员预计财报后股价波动幅度可能达±6%。部分分析师认 为，即使财报亮眼，股价也可能因"利好出尽" ...

随着英伟达(NVDA.US)即将发布其2026财年第四季度财务报告，瑞银集团在最新的研报中指出，该芯片巨头目前的业绩发布背景条件依然"有利"。 瑞银分析师指出，尽管市场近期对AI硬件需求的持续性以及利润率压缩存在担忧，导致英伟达股价表现相对平稳，但这种情绪反而为即将到来的 业绩发布降低了预期门槛，为超预期的财务表现和股价反弹埋下了伏笔。该行分析师蒂莫西·阿库里重申"买入"评级，并将目标价从235美元上 调至245美元。 阿库里在客户报告中写道："鉴于股价表现不温不火、供应链信号仍显乐观，以及管理层似乎对围绕增长与利润率可持续性的普遍质疑感到沮 丧，此次财报的背景设定显得积极——尤其是随着我们即将在下月迎来GTC大会。" 瑞银对英伟达业绩的乐观信心主要源于强劲的供应链信号以及关键产品的产能释放。根据该行对亚洲供应链，尤其是中国台湾地区1月份出口数 据的分析，自动数据处理相关设备的出口额在传统淡季中实现了逆势增长，这直接反映了全球数据中心对AI基础设施的旺盛需求。 与此同时，英伟达新一代Blackwell架构芯片的产能正处于加速扩张期，瑞银预计该系列产品在第四季度将贡献约90亿美元的收入，成为拉动业 绩超预期的核 ...

Group 1 - UBS raised Nvidia's target price from $235 to $245 and reiterated a "buy" rating ahead of Nvidia's Q4 2026 earnings report [1] - Analyst Timothy Arcuri noted that despite lackluster stock performance and management's frustration over sustainability concerns regarding growth and margins, supply chain signals remain optimistic, especially with the upcoming GTC conference [1] - UBS's optimistic outlook is supported by two main factors: analysis of January export data from the Asian supply chain showing growth in data processing equipment during the traditional off-season, indicating strong global demand for AI infrastructure; and the accelerated production capacity of Nvidia's new Blackwell architecture chips, expected to contribute approximately $9 billion in revenue in Q4 [1] Group 2 - UBS forecasts Nvidia's Q4 revenue to reach approximately $67.5 billion, significantly above the company's previous guidance of $65 billion; no factors are expected to shake the company's 75% gross margin guidance [1] - Nvidia is anticipated to provide a quarterly revenue guidance of up to $76 billion, exceeding the market consensus range of $74 billion to $75 billion [1][2]

Group 1 - UBS Group indicates that Nvidia's upcoming Q4 FY2026 financial report is set against a favorable backdrop, despite market concerns about the sustainability of AI hardware demand and margin compression [1] - UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price from $235 to $245, citing the stock's stable performance and optimistic supply chain signals [1] - The report highlights strong supply chain signals and capacity release of key products, with a notable increase in exports of data processing equipment from Taiwan, reflecting robust global demand for AI infrastructure [1] Group 2 - UBS expects Nvidia's new Blackwell architecture chips to significantly contribute approximately $9 billion in revenue during Q4, driving performance beyond expectations [2] - The firm forecasts Nvidia's Q4 revenue to reach around $67.5 billion, exceeding the company's previous guidance of $65 billion, with no short-term factors expected to impact the 75% gross margin guidance [2] - Looking ahead, UBS anticipates Nvidia will provide a revenue guidance of up to $76 billion for the next quarter, surpassing market expectations of $74 billion to $75 billion [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant evolution of AI in 2025, transitioning from simple chat interfaces to advanced reasoning agents capable of complex tasks, marking a shift towards a competitive landscape focused on computational power and efficiency [2]. Group 1: AI Developments - AI has transformed into agents that drive embodied intelligence across various industries, showcasing enhanced multimodal capabilities and reasoning skills akin to human logic [2]. - The year 2025 saw the emergence of key AI terms that influenced decision-making, with a focus on the competitive landscape of AI infrastructure, particularly centered around GPUs [2]. Group 2: Key AI Terms - **GPU**: In 2025, GPUs became a critical indicator of technological prowess, with NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture GPUs dominating high-end shipments, accounting for over 80% of their output [2]. - **Multimodal**: The release of models like Sora 2.0 and Veo 3 marked the transition of multimodal AI from demo stages to practical applications, enabling high-quality video generation and real-time analysis through AI-integrated devices [4]. - **ChatGPT**: As a leading AI application, ChatGPT maintained its position with over 800 million weekly active users and 20 million paid users, evolving into a comprehensive interactive platform [5]. - **NVIDIA**: NVIDIA solidified its status as a cornerstone of the AI economy, achieving a market valuation exceeding $5 trillion, driven by the successful production of Blackwell architecture chips [6]. - **Reasoning**: The concept of reasoning evolved, with AI models demonstrating advanced capabilities in logical reasoning and self-correction, significantly impacting commercial viability [7]. - **OpenAI**: Despite market challenges, OpenAI continued to lead in technology, achieving a valuation of $500 billion following significant investments [8]. - **DeepSeek**: DeepSeek emerged as a major player, achieving competitive performance with a training cost under $300,000, recognized for its innovative architecture [9]. - **Computational Power**: Computational power became a strategic asset in the AI era, with NVIDIA and AMD enhancing their market positions, while domestic players began commercializing their capabilities [10]. - **Robots**: The rise of embodied intelligence positioned robots at the forefront, with advancements in humanoid robots and autonomous systems gaining public attention [11]. - **Agents**: 2025 was dubbed the "Year of the Agent," with AI systems centered around agents proving to unlock significant productivity potential, as evidenced by the success of startups like Manus [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The global top AI models are in a phase of rapid iteration, with continuous advancements in technology and capabilities [1]. - Google's Gemini 3 Pro excels in multimodal understanding and long-term planning, showcasing superior performance in various data types [1][13]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 is designed for professional knowledge work, demonstrating significant improvements in complex document handling and project management [1][14]. - The DeepSeek V3.2 series from domestic developers shows innovation through sparse attention mechanisms and extensive post-training, although it acknowledges limitations in pre-training [1][16][19]. - The transition from NVIDIA's Hopper architecture to Blackwell represents a generational leap in AI computing power, enhancing performance and efficiency [2][20]. - ByteDance's Doubao mobile assistant marks a significant breakthrough in user interaction, initiating a new era of edge-side agents [4][26]. Summary by Sections AI Model Development - The report highlights the ongoing evolution of AI models, with significant advancements in multimodal capabilities and planning skills, particularly with models like Gemini 3 Pro and GPT-5.2 [1][14][16]. - DeepSeek V3.2's innovations include sparse attention mechanisms and aggressive post-training strategies, which enhance its performance in reasoning tasks [17][19]. Computing Power Transition - The shift to Blackwell architecture is characterized by substantial improvements in computational performance across various precision levels, memory capacity, and interconnect bandwidth [2][21][23]. - Blackwell's enhancements allow for larger batch sizes in training, improving gradient stability and convergence quality, which are crucial for developing more complex models [3][24][25]. User Interaction Innovations - The Doubao mobile assistant integrates advanced AI capabilities into mobile operating systems, allowing users to perform tasks with simple voice commands, thus transforming mobile interaction paradigms [4][26][28]. - Despite initial resistance from certain applications, the assistant's potential to streamline user interactions signifies a major advancement in AI application deployment [4][27][28]. Investment Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and others, as well as those developing AI agents like ByteDance and Google [5][29].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has developed a new AI chip location verification technology that aims to combat the rising issue of high-end AI chip smuggling, enhancing global chip export control systems [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Development - The new location verification technology will be initially available as optional software on the latest Blackwell architecture chips, utilizing unique communication latency analysis to determine the chip's country of origin [1]. - This technology is a response to the increasing smuggling of banned Nvidia chips, with an estimated $1 billion worth of such chips entering the Chinese market through Southeast Asia in Q2 2025 [3]. - The technology captures latency differences during communication between the chip and Nvidia's official servers, allowing for precise geographical location tracking without impacting chip performance [4]. Group 2: Strategic Significance - The introduction of this technology is a strategic move for Nvidia to comply with U.S. government regulations, as the U.S. Department of Justice has initiated criminal proceedings against smuggling operations involving over $160 million worth of Nvidia chips [5]. - This innovation provides a technical framework for addressing high-tech product smuggling, potentially filling gaps in traditional regulatory oversight for cross-regional monitoring [5]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - The rollout of this technology faces challenges, including scrutiny from Chinese cybersecurity regulators regarding potential "backdoors" and user data security concerns, which could impact its adoption [6].

Group 1 - Nvidia reported a remarkable revenue growth of 62% year-on-year, with data center revenue reaching $51.2 billion, a 66% increase, and a gross margin of 73% [1][3] - Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock price fell by 3% on the day of the announcement, leading to a market capitalization loss of approximately 1 trillion yuan [1] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant drop of 1.56% following Nvidia's report, indicating a broader market reaction [1] Group 2 - A delayed non-farm payroll report showed that the U.S. added 119,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, creating mixed signals for the market [3][4] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December dropped below 40%, impacting high-valuation tech stocks negatively [4] - Goldman Sachs highlighted that the liquidity in the S&P 500's top buy-sell orders had decreased significantly, leading to increased volatility in the market [6] Group 3 - Risk aversion spread across asset classes, with Bitcoin dropping below the psychological level of $90,000, indicating a broader sell-off in risk assets [7][8] - Defensive stocks like Walmart saw a rise in share price, suggesting a rotation of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive assets [8] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose against the backdrop of U.S. market declines, with Alibaba and Tencent reporting better-than-expected earnings [10] Group 4 - The A-share market showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking above 3,800 points, marking a nearly ten-year high [10] - Regulatory measures have tightened IPO approvals, leading to a decrease in the number of IPOs and a shift towards high-tech and strategic emerging industries [13] - Foreign investment interest in Chinese assets is increasing, with potential inflows estimated to exceed 10 trillion yuan [13][14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **semiconductor industry**, specifically focusing on **Nvidia** and its impact on major tech companies like **Meta**, **Alphabet**, and **Microsoft**. The broader context includes the **AI chip market** and the financial practices of large tech firms. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Depreciation Practices**: Hyperscalers are extending the useful lives of chips and servers for depreciation purposes, despite investing heavily in new graphics chips with shorter product cycles. This practice can inflate profits and overvalue assets [4][10][54]. 2. **Nvidia's Product Cycle**: Nvidia's product cycle has shortened significantly, with the current cycle lasting only one year. This raises concerns about the sustainability of its revenue model as new products are released rapidly [4][8]. 3. **Financial Manipulation Risks**: Extending the useful life of assets is a common financial manipulation tactic that can lead to overvalued assets and overstated profits. This has historical precedence, as seen in the collapse of WorldCom [10][56]. 4. **Impact of AI Infrastructure Spending**: Major tech companies are planning to spend over **$3 trillion** on data centers in the next three years, which is more than double their combined cash flow. A significant portion of this expenditure is directed towards Nvidia products [54][55]. 5. **Alphabet's Depreciation Policy Change**: Alphabet's change in depreciation policy in 2023 to a six-year useful life resulted in a **$3.9 billion** increase in pre-tax income, showcasing how accounting practices can significantly impact financial statements [56][57]. 6. **Potential Overvaluation of Assets**: If the trend of extending useful lives continues, companies like Alphabet may face risks of overvalued AI infrastructure assets, leading to potential write-downs in the future [58][61]. 7. **Competitive Landscape**: The competition in the AI chip market is intensifying, with well-funded companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft posing a threat to Nvidia's market share. Analysts need to consider this competitive pressure in their evaluations [62]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Nvidia's CEO Remarks**: Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang made controversial remarks about the future value of older products, suggesting that as new products are released, older models like the Hopper will lose value rapidly [7][8]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: The market's reaction to Nvidia's financial practices and the broader implications for the tech industry reflect a growing concern among investors regarding the sustainability of current business models [32][56]. 3. **Spender Corp Example**: The hypothetical example of Spender Corp illustrates how companies might manipulate depreciation schedules to present better financial results, highlighting the ethical implications of such practices [48][52][53]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call, emphasizing the financial strategies employed by Nvidia and its customers, as well as the broader implications for the semiconductor industry and investor sentiment.