谁能想到，一份被分析师誉为"无可挑剔"的财报，竟会引发一场市值单日蒸发超2万亿美元的股市血崩。 2025年11月20日，美股市场上演了戏剧性一幕：芯 片巨头英伟达在公布营收同比增长62%的亮眼业绩后，股价却从盘中大涨5%猛烈翻绿，收盘暴跌3%，单日市值蒸发约1万亿元人民币。 这本该是场多头狂 欢的盛宴，最终却以标普500指数高开低走、收盘重挫1.56%的结局惨淡收场。 更令人错愕的是，这场暴跌并非因业绩爆雷。 英伟达第三季度数据中心营收达到512亿美元，同比增长66%，毛利率仍维持在73%的惊人水平。 公司管理层 对新一代Blackwell架构芯片的需求信心满满，强调"AI工厂化"的下一阶段正在推进。 然而，市场用脚投票，这份优质财报反而成了资金出逃的导火索。 "利率预期"掐灭科技股狂欢 真正扭转盘面的，是一份迟到的非农就业报告。 原本在9月发布的报告因技术原因延迟至11月20日公布，数据显示美国新增非农就业11.9万人，远超市场预 期，但失业率却升至4.4%。 这份喜忧参半的报告，结合部分美联储官员的偏鹰表态，让市场瞬间清醒：经济不差，英伟达很好，但美联储可能更没有理由 急于在12月降息了。 对于估值高企、 ...

Unicorns and Cockroaches: Blessed Fraud 独⻆兽与蟑螂：神圣骗局 Part 2 of The Heretic's Guide to AI's Stars 《异端 AI 指南》第⼆部分 NOV 26, 2025 2025 年 11 ⽉ 26 ⽇ ∙ PAID ∙付费内容 MICHAEL BURRY 迈克尔·伯⾥ 分享 Perusing the 10-Ks of the companies that are making and spending the most money is always fun. 翻阅那些烧钱最多的公司的 10-K 年报总是件趣事。 In the last stages of a proper mania, where everyone fawns lovingly over new spending, perusing 10-Ks can seem a pointless old-world endeavor, one or more steps below brushing youngsters off my lawn. Yet, it is w ...

首先，让我们来看看中国的AI芯片市场。根据估算，目前这一市场规模已接近500亿美元，并预计到2030年将飙升至2000亿美元。在这一庞大 的潜力面前，黄仁勋表达了他对重返中国市场的渴望，同时也不无遗憾地指出，如果美国企业无法参与其中，将是一个巨大的损失。这一前景 足以让许多追求利润的商业领袖心动，如同在金矿边缘试图寻找机会的矿工。 与此同时，美国内部对于这一决定的讨论显得复杂且微妙。路透社和彭博社的相关报道显示，特朗普政府正在进行初步讨论，但情况并不乐 观。有消息人士表示，美国商务部正在审查现行政策是否需要变更，但这一切仍在摇摆不定之中。由于即将到来的中期选举，特朗普政府若轻 率批准此项目可能会面临政治上的强烈反弹。在这种复杂的背景下，所传出的"批准"消息更像是一种试探，既测试国内反对声浪，也观察中国 的反应。 从技术层面来看，H200芯片虽然被誉为英伟达在AI领域的顶尖产品，但与其最新的Blackwell架构芯片相比，其实并不算是最先进的型号。美 国若真想借此向中国出口，似乎是在一条灰色地带游走，一方面希望抓住中国市场的巨大蛋糕，另一方面又不愿打破对高端芯片的封锁。这种 两面派的态度，不禁让人想到美国在国际 ...

一份看似完美的财报，一次180度的市场反转，一场价值1万亿美元的市值波动，都在暗示着这场人工智能狂欢之下的暗流涌动。 来源网络 "未来会将这张图片视为欺诈而非良性循环"。因预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的迈克尔·伯里在英伟达财报发布后，毫不留情地发出了警告。 他的指责直指几家科技巨头之间复杂的人工智能投资交易，包括微软、OpenAI、甲骨文和英伟达，声称存在"可疑的收入确认"问题。 就在伯里发出警告的同一天，美国司法部指控四名男子非法向中国出口先进的英伟达AI芯片，揭露了黑市上对这些"人工智能黄金"的疯狂需求。 消息一出，英伟达股价在盘后交易中飙升5%，市值瞬间增加约1300亿美元。首席执行官黄仁勋自豪地宣布，对Blackwell架构芯片的需求"超出了图表"。 然而，香槟的泡沫尚未散尽，市场却突然变天。 不到18小时，这场狂欢便戛然而止。英伟达股价暴跌3%，纳斯达克综合指数收盘下跌1.21%。更令人震惊的是，在短短54小时内，英伟达经历了超过1万亿 美元市值的剧烈波动。 是什么让投资者的信心如此脆弱？问题的答案隐藏在财报的细节之中。 02 财务数据的红色警报 算法交易系统在人类分析师尚未完全消化财报细节时，就已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA, indicating expected investment returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY26Q3 revenue reached $57.006 billion, exceeding market expectations and showing a year-over-year growth of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 22% [1][2]. - The company expects FY26Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion, which is higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $62.133 billion [1]. - Strong demand for AI and data center products, particularly from the Blackwell and Rubin platforms, is driving revenue growth [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q3 revenue was $57.006 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.6% and a Non-GAAP net profit of $31.767 billion, resulting in a Non-GAAP EPS of $1.30 [1]. - The data center business generated $51.215 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The gaming segment reported $4.265 billion in revenue, a 30% increase year-over-year [3]. Business Segments - Data Center: Contributed significantly to revenue, with expectations of continued capital expenditure growth from major cloud service providers [2]. - Gaming: Revenue growth driven by strong demand for Blackwell architecture chips [3]. - Professional Visualization: Revenue of $760 million, up 56% year-over-year, attributed to new product sales [3]. - Automotive: Revenue reached $592 million, a 32% increase year-over-year, supported by the adoption of the autonomous driving platform [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts NVIDIA's GAAP net profit for FY2026 at $113.88 billion, with upward revisions for FY2027 and FY2028 net profits to $170.236 billion and $209.333 billion, respectively [4][5]. - The current stock price of $186.52 corresponds to projected P/E ratios of 40x for FY2026, 27x for FY2027, and 22x for FY2028 [4].

隔夜，现货黄金冲高回落，早盘一度狂飙1.6%，最高涨至4132.66美元，可随后快速回落，最终收报于 4077.79美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4067美元附近徘徊。 12月降息基本没戏了！ 隔夜，美股三大股指集体收涨，截至收盘，道指涨0.1%，标普500指数涨0.38%，纳指涨0.59%。 消息面上，美联储内部分歧加剧。 当地时间11月19日，美联储公布的10月会议纪要显示，美联储官员们对12月是否应进一步降息存在明显 分歧。在会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔坦言官员间存在分歧，并表示12月降息"并非既成定 局"。 纪要显示，"在讨论近期货币政策路径时，与会者对12月会议最可能采取的适当政策决定表达了强烈不 同的观点"。许多与会者认为根据经济展望，年底前维持利率在当前3.75%至4%区间可能更为合适。但 也有几位与会者表示，如果经济发展符合预期，12月再次降息可能是适当的。 美联储在10月会议上连续第二次降息25个基点，但该决定未能获得一致通过。特朗普任命的理事米兰主 张降息50个基点，而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则倾向于维持利率不变，这是连续第三次利率决定出现异 议。 有"美联储传声筒"之称的记 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 earnings report exceeded market expectations, showcasing strong revenue growth driven by AI chip demand, despite ongoing concerns about an AI bubble in the market [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $57.01 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, surpassing the market expectation of $55.19 billion [1]. - Net profit rose 65% year-over-year to $31.91 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.30, exceeding the forecast of $1.25 [1]. - The data center business, a key revenue driver, generated $51.2 billion, reflecting a 66% year-over-year growth, attributed to strong AI chip demand [1]. Future Guidance - Nvidia's Q4 revenue guidance is set between $65 billion, indicating a potential new quarterly record and a year-over-year growth of over 65% [1]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 73.5% to 75% year-over-year [1]. Market Sentiment and Concerns - Despite strong earnings, there are rising concerns about an AI bubble, with over 60% of fund managers in a recent survey believing AI stocks are overvalued [2][3]. - Notable investors, including Masayoshi Son and Peter Thiel, have liquidated their Nvidia holdings, raising alarms about the sustainability of AI market growth [2][3]. - Michael Burry's hedge fund has taken significant short positions against Nvidia, indicating skepticism about the AI sector's future [2][3]. Industry Dynamics - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the ongoing demand for AI technology, countering claims of an AI bubble and asserting that AI is at a critical juncture [4]. - The company has made substantial investments in AI, including a planned $100 billion investment in OpenAI, which will utilize Nvidia's GPUs for AI data centers [5]. - Nvidia's stock price increased over 5% post-earnings report, maintaining its position as the highest-valued company globally, with a market cap of $4.53 trillion [5].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's latest earnings report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 significantly exceeded expectations, showcasing strong revenue growth and robust guidance for the upcoming quarter, alleviating concerns about an "AI bubble" in the market [3][6]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported revenue of $57.01 billion, representing a substantial year-over-year increase of 62%, surpassing analyst expectations of $55.19 billion [3][4]. - Adjusted operating profit reached $37.75 billion, also up 62% year-over-year, exceeding the forecast of $36.46 billion [4]. - Research and development expenses increased by 39% year-over-year, while the market had anticipated a 46% rise [4]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted gross margin was reported at 73.1%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 1.4 percentage points, although slightly below the analyst expectation of 73.7% [5]. Future Guidance - For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, Nvidia expects revenue to be around $65 billion, which is above market expectations [7]. - The adjusted gross margin is projected to be between 74.5% and 75.5%, with the median analyst expectation at 74.6% [8]. Market Demand and Product Performance - Nvidia's CEO highlighted that the sales of the latest Blackwell architecture chips have exceeded expectations, with cloud GPUs sold out [9]. - The demand for computing in both training and inference areas is accelerating, with both showing exponential growth [9]. - The AI ecosystem is rapidly scaling, with an increasing number of new foundational model developers and AI startups emerging across various industries and countries [10][11]. Product Insights - The best-selling chip series currently is the Blackwell Ultra, which is the second generation of Blackwell chips, with demand consistently exceeding expectations [13]. - Nvidia anticipates $500 billion in revenue from the Blackwell and Rubin projects [13]. - The A100 GPUs, released six years ago, are still operating at full capacity, indicating an extended lifespan for GPUs [13]. - The Rubin chip is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026 [13].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report exceeded expectations, dispelling concerns about an "AI bubble" and showcasing strong growth across its business segments [7][10][50]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported record revenue of $57 billion for Q3 FY26, surpassing analyst expectations of $55.2 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22% [8][11]. - Net income reached $31.9 billion, a 65% increase year-over-year, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.30, exceeding market expectations of $1.25 [11][8]. - The company anticipates revenue to exceed $60 billion in Q4, potentially reaching $65 billion [10][49]. Business Segments - **Data Center**: This segment is the backbone of Nvidia's business, generating $51.2 billion in revenue, a 66% year-over-year increase and a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase [19][18]. - Data center computing revenue reached $43 billion, up 56% year-over-year [21]. - Networking revenue surged 162% year-over-year to $8.2 billion [23]. - **Gaming**: Revenue from gaming increased by 30% year-over-year, driven by demand for high-end GPUs, although it saw a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 1% [26][27]. - **Professional Visualization**: This segment saw a 56% year-over-year increase in revenue, attributed to the launch of the new DGX Spar platform [29][30]. - **Automotive**: Revenue grew by 32% year-over-year, primarily due to the adoption of Nvidia's autonomous driving platform [34]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Nvidia's strong performance has alleviated some market fears regarding the sustainability of AI investments, with the CEO asserting that the AI ecosystem is expanding rapidly [50][55]. - Despite concerns about potential limitations in AI infrastructure spending, Nvidia's results suggest ongoing demand for AI capabilities [52][50]. - The company's ability to maintain growth in a challenging market environment has led to increased stock prices, positively impacting the broader tech sector [44][2].

11月20日，A股CPO（共封装光学）概念开盘迎来强势拉升，腾景科技（688195.SH）涨超10%，中际旭 创（300308.SZ）、胜宏科技（300476.SZ）、新易盛(300502.SZ)涨超4%，方正科技（600601.SH）、生 益电子（688183.SH）等个股同步跟涨。 国盛证券最新研报表示，海外云厂商资本开支再度上修，需求持续旺盛。光模块行业正迎来"量价齐 增"发展局面。1.6T光模块零售价格大幅上涨；800G及以下产品需求旺盛且覆盖范围广，降价速度明显 减缓，呈现企稳态势。这一现象源于供需两端的多重因素共振：需求侧，全球云厂商资本开支持续上 修，算力建设需求旺盛；供给侧，技术迭代加速，头部厂商积极扩产满足增长需求。随着全球算力投资 规模不断扩大、技术迭代持续加速，光通信产业链将维持高景气度。 | 共封装光学(CPO) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 886033.TI | | | | 名称代码 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 → | 涨跌额 ▶ | | (共封装光学(CPO) | 3330.793 | 1.87% | 61.112 | | 腾景科技 | ...