Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% year-on-year in 2025, with projected revenues of 14.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 690 million yuan [1]. Group 1: Revenue Growth - All three business segments are anticipated to show strong growth in 2025. Specifically, ANC revenue is expected to grow in the mid-to-high single digits, while BNC and PNC revenues are projected to achieve low double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. - ANC segment is expected to benefit from increased demand for health products and related policy catalysts, with Swisse China projected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025. The official account indicates a 6% year-on-year increase in sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, maintaining its position as the leader in the nutrition and health industry [1]. - BNC segment is projected to see over 20% revenue growth in 2025, primarily due to effective customer acquisition strategies, while probiotics and infant nutrition products are expected to stabilize with a significant reduction in decline [1]. - PNC segment is expected to continue double-digit growth in the U.S. market for Zesty Paws, contributing to overall PNC growth, while Solid Gold is anticipated to recover with high single-digit growth, with a narrowing decline in the U.S. market [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Margin - The EBITDA margin for 2025 is expected to align with market expectations, with ANC EBITDA margin remaining stable year-on-year. BNC EBITDA margin is projected to improve to low double digits due to sales improvements, while PNC EBITDA margin is expected to remain in the mid-single digits [2]. - Overall, the group’s EBITDA margin is anticipated to remain stable year-on-year in 2025. For 2026, ANC revenue is expected to achieve high single-digit growth, BNC revenue is projected to grow in the mid-single digits due to a high base, and PNC revenue is expected to continue double-digit growth [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is trading at 10-9 times the P/E ratio for 2026/2027. Given the strong performance of the milk powder segment, net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3% to 690 million yuan and 820 million yuan, respectively, with a profit forecast of 910 million yuan for 2027 [2]. - Considering the competitive nature of the industry, the target price is maintained at 17.7 HKD, corresponding to 13-11 times the P/E ratio for 2026/2027, indicating a 29% upside potential. The company maintains an outperform rating relative to the industry [2].

Core Insights - The nutrition and health industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with declines in infant formula, intensified competition in adult nutrition, and structural differentiation in the pet segment. Despite this, the company achieved a revenue of 10.805 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, indicating stability [1] Group 1: Company Growth Strategy - The core value of the company lies not in a single product explosion but in the establishment of a "whole family nutrition health ecosystem" across infant, adult, and pet segments, extending the consumer lifecycle [1] - The company leverages maternal and infant channels, content marketing, and a comprehensive domestic and international e-commerce system to create a wide-reaching touchpoint network [1] - In the adult segment, Swisse has established clear positioning through a high-end and youthful product matrix across multiple subcategories [1] Group 2: International Market Structure - The company's international layout consists of three layers: - Core driving market (China) accounts for over 70% and remains the growth engine [2] - Mature markets (Australia and New Zealand) show stable growth, with Swisse maintaining a leading position and achieving an 8.9% growth [2] - Expanding markets (Southeast Asia, Middle East, Italy, etc.) are experiencing double-digit growth, representing potential future waves over the next three to five years [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Resilience - The company's supply chain system is crucial for supporting multi-market operations, with six R&D centers and multiple production bases facilitating resource sharing and raw material interchange [3] - The resilience of the supply chain allows the company to maintain stable gross margins during cost fluctuations and ensures product quality consistency within a global traceability system [3] Group 4: Long-term Investment Value - The company possesses three long-term value points: - A multi-category structure that reduces cyclical risks [4] - A multi-regional layout that enhances growth elasticity [4] - A high-end product mix that improves profitability and brand barriers [4] - As the industry transitions from an expansion phase to a refined competition phase, the company's systemic competitiveness in supply chain, internationalization, and brand matrix will be key to its sustained growth capability [4]

Core Insights - H&H International Holdings Limited reported a revenue of 10.805 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [1] - The company’s three core business segments—Adult Nutrition and Care (ANC), Infant Nutrition and Care (BNC), and Pet Nutrition and Care (PNC)—all experienced growth, with China remaining the primary revenue source, accounting for 71.0% of total revenue, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to enhance scientific innovation investments to drive growth in adult nutrition, infant formula, and pet nutrition products while optimizing its capital structure [3] Business Segment Performance - ANC segment achieved a revenue of 5.24 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% year-on-year, with Swisse in China growing by 15.7%, driven mainly by e-commerce channels [1][2] - BNC segment revenue reached 3.97 billion yuan, up 24.0% year-on-year, with sales of infant formula in mainland China increasing by 35.2%, outperforming the overall market [2] - PNC segment generated 1.59 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth, supported by an upgrade in pet consumption structure [2] Financial Health - The company has optimized its capital structure by repaying 300 million yuan (equivalent) of USD syndicated loans ahead of schedule, reducing debt levels and improving financing efficiency [2] - As of the end of September, the company maintained a cash reserve of 1.74 billion yuan, ensuring stable overall liquidity [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The LGFV space remained stable, with higher-yielding issues tightening due to HF demand, and overall two-way flows skewed towards buying from RMs, especially for onshore AAA-guaranteed CNH issues [3] - BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target based on the 9M25 run-rate. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower, so the recommendation changes to neutral, and the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 for better carry [4] - Bangkok Bank's new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s are expected to have FVs of T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively [4][8] - H&H's credit profile is improving, and it is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. Its near-term refinancing risk is manageable [16][17][21] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the MEITUA curve and TW lifer NSINTW/FUBON widened by 2 - 5bps. There were two-way flows on CCAMCL Perp and block two-way trading on CDBFLC 35. Chinese and global funds sold HK bank SHCMBK/DAHSIN/BNKEA/NANYAN T2s [2] - The NWDEVL complex rose 1.4 - 2.9pts. BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 was 0.1pt lower. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 were down by 0.4 - 1.0pt, and FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were 0.1pt lower [2] - Japanese/Korean IG spaces were up to 5bps wider on financial and corporate bonds, but flows were balanced on JP bank FRNs. SOFTBK and RAKUTN bonds were down by 0.9 - 1.3pts. Yankee AT1s and insurance subs dropped by 0.3 - 0.5pt. In SEA, OCBCSP/BBLTB T2s traded 3 - 5bps wider, and ACPM 5 1/8 Perp lowered by 1.3pts. There were two-way flows on BSFR 35 in the Middle Eastern space [2] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-0.83%), Dow (-1.07%), and Nasdaq (-1.21%) were lower. The latest initial jobless claims were +232k, higher than the market expectation of +223k. UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.58%/3.70%/4.12%/4.74% [7] Desk Analyst Comments - Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr Reg S/144A senior unsecured USD bonds. The FV of the new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s is expected to be T+80 - 85bps and T+95 - 100bps, respectively, considering its existing curve [8] BBLTB Analysis - Bangkok Bank is the largest bank in Thailand by total assets as of Sep'25, with a presence in 14 international markets. Its loan book is more diversified geographically than local peers, and it has the largest exposure to corporate and lowest to SME and retail [11] - In 9M25, Bangkok Bank showed resilient profitability, stable asset quality, and strong capital adequacy. NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24, and the cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from 46.3%. ROA/ROE increased to 1.12%/8.99% from 1.03%/8.54% in 9M24 [12] - In 3Q25, Bangkok Bank's asset quality stabilized, with credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25. The gross NPL ratio rose to 3.3% as of Sep'25 from 3.2% as of Jun'25, mainly due to a shrink in the loan book. NPL coverage ratio was 294% as of Sep'25 [13] - Bangkok Bank's capital buffers remain ample, with a standalone CET1 ratio of 19.6% as of Sep'25, well above the 8.0% regulatory minimum. The net reduction in CAR from redeeming USD750mn AT1 was mitigated by issuing USD1bn T2 bonds in Mar'25 [15] BTSDF Analysis - Based on the 9M25 run-rate, BTSDF is on track to achieve its FY25 revised revenue target. The conviction level of BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 is now lower after moving up c5pts since the buy recommendation in Jan'25, so the switch is made to FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 [4][16] H&H Analysis - H&H's 9M25 revenue increased by 12.0% yoy to RMB10.8bn, with all business segments growing. Mainland China remained the largest market, contributing 71.0% of revenue in 9M25, up from 65.9% in 9M24 [17] - The ANC segment grew 5.2% yoy in 9M25, driven by Swisse's performance in mainland China, especially in cross-border e-commerce and Douyin channels [18] - The BNC segment grew 24.0% yoy in 9M25, mainly due to a 35.2% yoy increase in mainland China IMF sales, reaching a market share of 16.4% as of Sep'25. The decline in pediatric probiotic and nutritional supplements narrowed [19] - The PNC segment grew 8.2% yoy in 9M25, due to Zesty Paws' growth in North America, partially offset by Solid Gold's decline in North America [20] - As of Sep'25, H&H held RMB1.7bn of cash, up from RMB1.6bn as of Dec'24. It has been proactive in debt management, and its near-term refinancing risk is manageable, with no major debt maturities until 2027 [21] - H&H targets to reduce net debt/adj. EBITDA to 3.7x by Dec'25 from 3.9x as of Jun'25 and considers an 80% RMB share of total debt as an optimal currency mix [22] Offshore Asia New Issues - New issued: The Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation issued USD1000mn 5yr bonds with a 3.875% coupon at T+20 [25] - In the pipeline: Bangkok Bank plans to issue 5yr and 10yr bonds at T+115 and T+130; the Government of Indonesia plans 5yr and 10yr bonds at 4.8% and 5.3%; SMBC Aviation Capital Finance plans a 10yr bond at T+145 [26] News and Market Color - There were 161 credit bonds issued onshore yesterday with an amount of RMB193bn. Month-to-date, 1,188 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB1,299bn, a 35.4% yoy increase [27] - S&P upgraded Marubeni Corp by one notch to A- from BBB+ with a stable outlook [27] Company News - NWD increased the cap on exchange offers to USD1.79bn from USD1.6bn, added an early tender date on 25 Nov'25 and an extra early payment date on 1 Dec'25 [33] - PDD Holdings 9M25 revenue was up 8.7% yoy to RMB307.9bn (cUSD43.4bn) [33] - POSCO's trading arm will acquire KRW1.3tn (cUSD860mn) worth of shares in Singapore's AGPA [33] - SoftBank's USD6.5bn bid for Ampere secured HSR early termination [33] - A former TSMC executive was probed by Taiwan over potential technology transfer and received TWD147bn (cUSD4.7bn) in government subsidies over 21 months [33] - Moody's placed West China Cement under review for upgrade following a bond deal and tender offer [33] - Xiaomi 3Q25 revenue was up 22.3% yoy to RMB113.1bn (cUSD16bn) [33]

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings (01112) reported a 5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for H1 2025, amounting to 7.019 billion yuan, with adjusted comparable EBITDA decreasing by 3% to 1.101 billion yuan, and adjusted comparable net profit increasing by 5% to 363 million yuan. The company is expected to see EPS of 0.79, 1.05, and 1.30 yuan for 2025-2027, with a "Buy" investment rating assigned by Huaxin Securities [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue increase, with a notable improvement in gross margin. The gross margin for H1 2025 rose by 2 percentage points to 62.53%, driven by higher margins in adult and pet nutrition and care products, along with product mix optimization [1]. - The proportion of sales and distribution/administrative expenses relative to revenue increased by 3 percentage points and decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 42.33% and 5.68%, respectively, due to changes in the channel mix for adult nutrition and care products in mainland China and investments in new market expansion strategies [1]. - Adjusted comparable EBITDA margin and adjusted comparable net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.02 percentage points to 15.68% and 5.17%, respectively, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year and increased selling expenses [1]. Business Segment Performance - The adult nutrition and care products segment saw a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to 3.439 billion yuan, largely attributed to the outstanding performance of Swisse's innovative anti-aging product line, which grew by 39% compared to the benchmark [2]. - Revenue from infant nutrition and care products increased by 3% year-on-year to 2.501 billion yuan, driven by effective e-commerce channel development and new mother education initiatives in specialty stores. The company successfully transitioned its products to meet new national standards, with the market share of its premium infant formula brand reaching a historical high of 15.9% [2]. - The pet nutrition and care products segment experienced a 10% year-on-year revenue increase to 1.079 billion yuan, with gross margin rising by 12 percentage points to 58.70%. This growth was supported by deepened partnerships in North America and the ongoing high-end upgrade of Solid Gold in mainland China, leading to significant improvements in profitability [2]. Regional and Channel Insights - Revenue from mainland China increased by 9% year-on-year to 4.936 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in adult nutrition and care products and rapid channel expansion. Cross-border e-commerce revenue grew by 18%, with Douyin channel revenue surging by 80%, becoming a key growth engine [3]. - Revenue from Australia and New Zealand decreased by 18% to 801 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in corporate purchasing business [3]. - North American revenue increased by 6% to 862 million yuan, benefiting from the popularity of premium pet nutrition products and a growing pet population, with major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and PerSmart performing well [3]. - Other regions saw a 17% year-on-year revenue increase to 420 million yuan, with strong growth in the Asian expansion market [3].

Core Viewpoint - H&H International Holdings reported a total revenue of 7.019 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase, with adjusted comparable EBITDA of 1.101 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, and adjusted comparable net profit of 363 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year. The company is expected to see EPS of 0.79, 1.05, and 1.30 yuan for 2025-2027, with a "Buy" investment rating assigned by Huaxin Securities [1]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin increase of 2 percentage points to 62.53% in H1 2025, driven by improved margins in adult and pet nutrition and care products, along with product mix optimization [1]. - The proportion of sales and distribution/administrative expenses to revenue increased by 3 percentage points and decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 42.33% and 5.68%, respectively, due to changes in the channel mix for adult nutrition and care products in mainland China and investments in new market expansion strategies [1]. - Adjusted comparable EBITDA margin and adjusted comparable net profit margin decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.02 percentage points to 15.68% and 5.17%, respectively, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year and increased selling expenses [1]. Business Segment Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from adult nutrition and care products increased by 5% to 3.439 billion yuan, largely due to the outstanding performance of Swisse's innovative anti-aging product line, which saw a 39% growth compared to the benchmark [2]. - Revenue from infant nutrition and care products rose by 3% to 2.501 billion yuan, supported by effective e-commerce channel development and educational initiatives for new mothers in specialty stores, with the product successfully transitioning to new national standards [2]. - Revenue from pet nutrition and care products increased by 10% to 1.079 billion yuan, with gross margin rising by 12 percentage points to 58.70%, driven by deepened North American channel cooperation and the ongoing high-end upgrade of Solid Gold in mainland China [2]. Regional and Channel Insights - Revenue from mainland China in H1 2025 grew by 9% to 4.936 billion yuan, primarily due to strong growth in adult nutrition and care products and rapid channel expansion, with cross-border e-commerce revenue increasing by 18% and Douyin channel revenue surging by 80% [3]. - Revenue from Australia and New Zealand decreased by 18% to 801 million yuan, mainly due to a decline in corporate purchasing business [3]. - North American revenue increased by 6% to 862 million yuan, benefiting from the popularity of high-end pet nutrition products and the growing pet population, with major retailers like Amazon and Walmart performing well [3]. - Other regions saw a revenue increase of 17% to 420 million yuan, with strong growth in the Asian expansion market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 7.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue Performance - All three business segments recorded positive growth, with milk powder revenue rebounding. Overall revenue increased by 4.9% year-on-year, with ANC revenue up 5% and ANC China revenue up 13.1%, driven by strong performance of Swisse's new product categories and rapid growth in cross-border e-commerce and new retail channels [1]. - ANC Australia and New Zealand revenue decreased by 18.5% due to adjustments in the purchasing agent channel [1]. - BNC revenue increased by 2.9%, with milk powder revenue up 9.6%, while probiotics and infant nutrition products saw declines of 16% and 17.1%, respectively [1]. - PNC revenue grew by 9.6%, with PNC China revenue up 17.5% and North America PNC revenue up 6.4%, driven by Zesty Paws' 12.8% revenue growth, while Solid Gold's revenue fell by 23.3% [1]. Profitability Metrics - EBITDA margin remained healthy, with adjusted net profit margin improving. ANC's adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 20.9%, primarily due to increased investment in overseas expansion and a higher proportion of sales through Douyin in China [2]. - BNC's adjusted EBITDA margin fell by 2.6 percentage points to 12.4%, mainly due to costs associated with the new national standard transition and consumer education [2]. - PNC's adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 12.4%, benefiting from improvements in product and channel mix [2]. - The company completed refinancing in 1H25, with financing costs rising by 34% year-on-year to 580 million yuan, impacting overall profit performance [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve high single-digit revenue growth for the full year, with ANC projected to see mid to high single-digit growth [2]. - Milk powder business is anticipated to accelerate to low double-digit growth in the second half of the year, while PNC is expected to continue its growth trend [2]. - The company forecasts continued improvement in internal profit margins and ongoing optimization of financial costs [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 5% and 6% to 640 million yuan and 760 million yuan, respectively, due to the recovery in the milk powder business [3]. - The current valuation is set at 14 and 11 times the P/E for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price increase of 23% to 17.7 HKD, corresponding to 16 and 14 times the P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 20% upside potential [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue growth of 4.9% for the first half of 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin maintained at 15.7% [48][49][64] - Adjusted net profit increased by 4.6%, reaching a net profit margin of 5.2% [49][64] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points for core product categories [55] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ANC business grew by 5.9%, BNC by 2.9%, and P&C by 8.6% [22] - Nutritional supplements accounted for 65.6% of total revenue, up by 4.1% [18] - The P&C segment saw a 15.5% growth, while the probiotic business experienced a decline of around 10% [9][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China contributed 70% of total revenue, with a growth driven by IMF sales and nutritional products [20] - The North American market grew by 4.6%, while the ANZ market saw a decline of 15.6% due to Daigou channel sales [20][21] - Expansion markets contributed 66% of revenue, growing by 18.6% [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its number one position in the ANC market in China and expand into new markets [44][45] - Focus on premiumization and diversification strategies to enhance profitability and market share [46] - Continued investment in product innovation and consumer education to drive growth [15][44] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged fierce competition in the Chinese market and emphasized the importance of adapting strategies [3] - The company expects to achieve high single-digit sales growth for the full year, with a stable EBITDA margin around 15% [66] - Confidence in overcoming challenges from the Guo Biao transition and maintaining growth momentum [8][49] Other Important Information - The interim dividend payout is set at HKD0.19 per share [12] - The company completed a refinancing of USD 300 million, which is expected to lower financial expenses [11][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Do you have any guidance update for the whole year's performance? - The company expects high single-digit growth for the whole group, with adjusted EBITDA margin around 15% and adjusted net profit margin close to 5% [66] Question: What are the key drivers for the B&C business growth? - Main drivers include innovative products and penetration into new channels, with a focus on retail and online channels [70][71] Question: Will the IMF gross profit margin be restructured? - Adjustments are being made to improve profitability, with 80% of product categories returning to expected growth [72][73] Question: What is the expectation for the ANC business in ANZ? - The company will continue to promote domestic business growth to offset declines in the Daigou channel, maintaining guidance for the whole year [85][86]