分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 陈硕旸 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524020002 SFC：BQK487 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨 H&H 国际控股（01112.HK） [Table_Title] H&H 国际控股 2025 年前三季经营数据点评： 婴配粉修复加速，国内保健品维持良性增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年前三季度，撇除外汇影响，公司总收入 108.1 亿元（同比+12.3%）。所有业务分部收入 均录得正面增长，成人营养及护理用品分部收入同比+6.0%。婴幼儿营养及护理用品分部收入 同比+24.0%，其中婴配粉收入同比+33.3%，婴幼儿益生菌及营养补充品业务收入跌幅收窄至 2.3%。宠物营养及护理用品分部收入同比+8.2%。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com %% %% 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] H&H 国际控股（01112.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title H&H 国际控股2] 202 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：陈文博/王文丹 公司近况 公司公布3Q25 经营数据：9M25 收入108.1 亿元，同比+12%（按照同类比较基准增长12.3%）；其中 3Q25 收入37.9 亿元，同比+28.1%；经营数据超市场预期，主因婴配奶粉增长超预期。 评论 预计全年收入同比增长高单至低双，利润率有望保持健康水平。 我们预计公司全年收入有望实现同比高单至低双的增长，三大板块收入均将保持较好增长趋势；其中 ANC全年收入有望实现同比中至高单增长，BNC全年收入有望同比增长超20%，PNC全年收入有望同比 增长低双位数。利润端，我们预计公司25 年将维持健康的利润率水平，财务成本有望持续优化。 盈利预测与估值 考虑奶粉业务表现亮眼，上调25/26 年盈利预测5.1%/4.3%至6.7/7.9 亿元，公司当前交易于12/10 倍25/26 年P/E。维持目标价17.7 港币，对应16/13 倍25/26 年P/E和29%股价上行空间，维持跑赢行业评级。 风险 需求疲弱；竞争加剧；新品拓展不及预期；关税不确定性。 3Q25 BNC 婴配奶粉表现亮眼，ANC 及PNC 稳健增长。分业务看：1）BNC：3Q25 收入 ...

预计2025年收入同比增长高单至低双，利润率有望保持健康水平 该行预计公司全年收入有望实现同比高单至低双的增长，三大板块收入均将保持较好增长趋势;其中 ANC全年收入有望实现同比中至高单增长，BNC全年收入有望同比增长超20%，PNC全年收入有望同比 增长低双位数。利润端，该行预计公司25年将维持健康的利润率水平，财务成本有望持续优化。 中金主要观点如下： 业绩表现 9M25收入108.1亿元，同比+12%(按照同类比较基准增长12.3%);其中3Q25收入37.9亿元，同比+28.1%;经 营数据超市场预期，主因婴配奶粉增长超预期。 25Q3BNC婴配奶粉表现亮眼，ANC及PNC稳健增长 1)BNC：Q3收入同比+90.6%至14.7亿元，其中婴配奶粉收入同比+104%至12.3亿元，合生元在中国超高 端婴配奶粉市场的份额于3Q提升至17.3%，主因公司持续投入母婴及电商渠道推进消费者教育;益生菌 收入同比+58.8%至1.8亿元，主因线上及母婴渠道增势较好，且药店渠道逐步企稳。 2)ANC：25Q3收入同比+5.6%(可比口径6.3%)至18亿元，实现稳健增长。9M25中国区收入同比 +15.7%，占比提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food industry in Suzhou is a crucial pillar of the city's development, with over 200,000 food production and operation units generating an annual output value exceeding 90 billion yuan. The focus is on enhancing food safety and quality through comprehensive regulatory measures and innovative practices [1]. Policy and Regulatory Framework - A detailed implementation plan titled "Implementation Plan for Further Strengthening Food Safety Full-Chain Supervision to Promote High-Quality Development of the Food Industry" was released, outlining ten initiatives covering industry upgrades, brand cultivation, and regulatory innovation [2]. - The market regulatory authority is actively utilizing food safety and quality standards to provide comprehensive support for industry development, exemplified by the pilot town of Zhangpu in Kunshan [2]. Industry Collaboration and Innovation - The establishment of the "Suzhou Food Industry Quality Innovation Consortium" led by Yihai Kerry (Kunshan) Food Industry Co., Ltd. aims to integrate resources from upstream and downstream enterprises to tackle technical challenges and enhance brand development [3]. - A "Policy Clarity Card" has been created to simplify complex regulations for businesses, and targeted support measures have been implemented for food production enterprises facing compliance issues [3]. Service Enhancements and Market Access - The market regulatory authority has expedited the approval process for food business licenses, achieving a 50% reduction in processing time for certain projects, thereby facilitating faster market entry for businesses [5]. - Innovative service models have been introduced to streamline the application process for small and medium-sized enterprises, significantly reducing waiting times and administrative burdens [5]. Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A "trigger + penetration" support mechanism has been developed to assist small food enterprises in identifying and rectifying quality management issues, resulting in the resolution of 46 safety hazards [6]. - Collaborations with major retailers like Hema have been established to help small food producers expand their market reach [6]. Quality Standards and Brand Development - The establishment of group standards for traditional agricultural products has been initiated to ensure consistent quality and enhance product value [8]. - The regulatory authority has supported the development of industry standards and facilitated the recognition of local brands, contributing to the overall enhancement of the food industry in Suzhou [8]. Future Directions - The Suzhou market regulatory authority plans to continue implementing stringent food safety measures and deepen full-chain empowerment to foster a safe and vibrant food industry environment [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 科拓生物 (Keto Bio) - **Industry**: Probiotics - **Market Size**: The domestic probiotics market has exceeded 100 billion, with significant growth potential as per capita consumption is much lower than overseas markets [2][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: The probiotics market is driven by increasing consumer awareness and clinical trial support, with a shift from imported brands to local brands due to better alignment with local needs [2][3] - **Production Capacity**: The new factory in Inner Mongolia is expected to significantly enhance production capacity, with projected revenues of around 600 million by 2027 [2][4] - **C-end Brand Development**: The company has incubated C-end brands, 乌卡实验室 (Uka Lab) and MBB, with Uka Lab expected to generate 1.5 billion in revenue next year and MBB projected to reach 200-500 million [2][5][6] - **Business Structure Adjustment**: Probiotics have become the main growth driver, accounting for over 70% of revenue, while the contribution from food additives has decreased [2][7] Industry Dynamics - **Market Potential**: The probiotics industry is seen as a blue ocean market with significant growth potential due to increasing health-conscious consumer behavior and aging population [3][11] - **Consumer Shift**: There is a notable shift in consumer preference from imported brands to domestic brands, driven by the recognition of the benefits of probiotics for gut health and other areas [3][12] - **Competition**: The company has established a strong competitive position through extensive R&D, clinical trials, and partnerships with well-known brands [16][20] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: By 2027, total revenue is expected to reach approximately 760 million, with a net profit of around 200 million [3][21] - **Market Valuation**: The company’s valuation is projected to exceed 5 billion, with potential for doubling based on the performance of C-end brands and overall market growth [21][22] Additional Important Insights - **R&D and Technology**: The company has a robust R&D team and the largest lactic acid bacteria resource library globally, which supports its competitive edge [15][16] - **Impact of Trade Policies**: The trade war has prompted domestic brands to seek local alternatives, benefiting the company due to its cost advantages and product quality [17] - **Production Expansion**: The new Inner Mongolia factory is set to become the largest probiotics factory in Asia, significantly increasing the company's production capacity [4][18] Conclusion - **Long-term Growth Potential**: The company is well-positioned for long-term growth in the probiotics market, with strong fundamentals, a diversified product portfolio, and a strategic focus on local consumer needs [2][20]

0:00 / 5:17 近年来，我国大力发展老龄事业和老龄产业，然而有些不良商家却盯上了"银发"市场，通过私域直播专做坑老、骗老的勾当。上海市宝山区 市场监管局近期成功查处一起利用私域直播进行虚假宣传、误导消费者的违法案件。 近期，中国消费者协会对消费者投诉热点进行分析发现，私域营销逐渐成为消费者投诉的一个重要领域。其中售假问题突出、诱导消费者通 过第三方支付渠道或银行转账等方式完成付款、缺乏完整的交易留痕等环节造成维权难度不断增加。 上海市宝山区市场监管局最终认定，王阿姨购买的益生菌产品，仅是普通食品，并非药品或保健食品。目前执法部门已对当事人作出责令停 止违法行为，并作出相应处罚。 业内人士指出，随着老年人保健品市场的蓬勃发展，越来越多的商家采用私域直播对商品进行营销，私域直播电商能否杜绝乱象、持续释放 积极价值，既需要监管部门通过政策法规加以引导，更离不开平台、从业者等各方的协同共治。 记者：陈杰、程思琪 新华社音视频部制作 退休在家的王阿姨今年就在涉案的这家门店进行了一笔消费。执法人员介绍，在王阿姨观看的私域直播里，主播大力宣传一款名为复合乳酸 菌冻干粉的产品，具有立竿见影的疗效，消费者可以到指定的门 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Microbiome International Probiotic and Health Summit, co-hosted by Weikang Probiotics and the APC Microbiome Centre of Ireland, emphasizes the theme "Quality Bacteria, Quality Life," focusing on the forefront of probiotic research, evidence-based innovation, and sustainable development strategies in the industry [1][8]. Group 1: Keynote Addresses - Dr. Fang Shuguang, Chairman and Chief Scientist of Weikang Probiotics, and Paul Ross, a member of the American Academy of Microbiology and the Royal Irish Academy, delivered keynote addresses at the summit [5][9]. - The summit highlighted the transition of the global probiotic industry towards a science-based, quality-focused, and industrialized era, advocating for rigorous research design and traceable data for quality control [8][11]. Group 2: Research Reports - Renowned scholars, including Catherine Stanton from the Royal Irish Academy and experts from Fudan University and Suzhou University, presented reports on core topics such as cutting-edge probiotic research, scientific evidence, and future development [13]. - Catherine Stanton discussed the establishment of infant gut microbiota and its impact on host health, emphasizing the role of various factors in gut diversity and the clinical benefits of specific probiotics [14][16]. - Other presentations included innovative approaches to gut health management, the necessity of clinical evidence for probiotics, and the potential of probiotics in cancer treatment and chronic disease management [18][20][22][27]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Future Directions - The summit served as a vibrant platform for intellectual exchange, fostering meaningful collaborations and innovations in the probiotic field [11]. - Weikang Probiotics is committed to its mission of "Quality Bacteria, Quality Life," focusing on probiotic strain research, clinical evidence, and large-scale production to provide high-quality probiotic solutions for global consumers [27].

Investment Rating - The report rates the nutrition supplement industry in China with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4%, indicating strong growth potential and positioning China as a leading growth engine globally [18][19]. Core Insights - The global nutrition supplement market is expected to grow from $189.2 billion in 2024 to $402.2 billion by 2034, driven by increased health awareness, aging populations, lifestyle changes, and product innovation [6][8]. - China's nutrition supplement market is projected to reach $466 billion by 2034, with significant growth driven by policy support, generational demand, and consumption upgrades [19][20]. - The market is characterized by a shift from standardized products to personalized nutrition strategies, particularly through age and gender-specific formulations [60][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Global and Chinese Nutrition Supplement Market Landscape - The global market is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 7.8% from 2024 to 2034, influenced by health awareness, aging populations, lifestyle changes, and product innovation [6][10]. - The Asia-Pacific region leads in market share and growth rate, with China achieving a 10% growth rate, making it the most dynamic growth area globally [12][13]. 2. Industry Development Trends and Innovations - The market is transitioning from trend-driven consumption to a more rational, demand-based approach, emphasizing the need for personalized nutrition solutions [43][46]. - There is a notable increase in the demand for probiotics and immune-boosting products, with iron supplements emerging as a star category due to heightened health awareness [39][40]. 3. Consumer Insights on Nutrition Supplement Needs and Behaviors - There is a growing awareness of proactive nutrition among consumers, with six key segments driving rapid demand growth [3][3]. - The market is witnessing a significant shift towards online sales channels, which now dominate with a 56% market share, while traditional channels are declining [22][24]. 4. Future Trends and Opportunities in the Nutrition Supplement Industry - The industry is moving towards precision nutrition and technological innovation, with a focus on multi-dimensional strategies and localized innovations driving brand growth [4][4]. - The report highlights the importance of age and gender-specific nutrition strategies, which are gaining acceptance among consumers, indicating a shift towards more tailored health solutions [60][71].

Industry Overview - The global functional food market is entering a structural growth phase, with a projected market size of 1.09 trillion yuan in 2024 and expected to exceed 1.46 trillion yuan by 2030 [1] - Key growth drivers include vitamins, probiotics, and protein powders, with the Chinese market expected to reach approximately 231.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 5% [1] Demographic Trends - The dual trends of an aging population and younger consumer preferences are driving market growth, with the elderly population boosting categories related to bone and cardiovascular health, while Generation Z favors convenient and fun supplement options [1] Company Analysis: Swisse - Swisse, under the Health and Happiness Group, demonstrates strong structural adaptability by investing in three strategic paths: efficacy, premiumization, and snackification [1] - The brand focuses on specific functional areas such as anti-aging, gut health, and bone health, while also launching convenient products like gummies and effervescent powders [1] - Financial results indicate that Swisse's ANC business revenue grew by 5.9% year-on-year to 3.44 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] Investment Perspective - Swisse's strategic positioning reflects a proactive response to industry trends rather than a short-term performance spike [1] - The ability to maintain a balanced product structure in the face of rational competition in the functional food sector will determine its contribution to the overall valuation of the Health and Happiness Group in the medium to long term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The health industry is experiencing significant growth, with new brands driving this expansion by integrating health into everyday life and consumer experiences [4][5][6]. Group 1: Health Industry Trends - The health sector is evolving, with a shift from general wellness to precision health, focusing on specific needs such as acne treatment, sleep aid, and emotional management [7][8]. - Consumers are increasingly seeking products that provide tangible experiences and emotional satisfaction, moving beyond mere functionality [9]. - Young women are identified as the primary growth drivers in the health industry, emphasizing the importance of both product efficacy and brand alignment with lifestyle [9][10]. Group 2: Brand Development and Support - New brands face challenges in transitioning from initial success to sustainable growth, requiring a balance of research capabilities and effective consumer communication [11][12]. - Tmall's "Treasure New Brand" initiative supports emerging brands through systematic measures, enhancing their market presence and long-term viability [12][30]. - Successful brands leverage unique product offerings and innovative marketing strategies to resonate with consumers, as seen with Swisse Me and its engaging approach to probiotics [14][15][17]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The health market is diversifying, with brands exploring niche segments that combine health with lifestyle, such as emotional wellness and functional foods [33][34]. - The growth of the health industry is driven by a collaborative ecosystem involving research institutions, supply chains, and consumer insights, leading to a more structured approach to brand development [34][35]. - The ongoing trend towards health consciousness indicates that the market will continue to expand, with a focus on scientific and sustainable consumer care [36].