Industry Dynamics - The 2025 version of the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries" has been released, effective from February 2026, promoting foreign investment in the health industry, particularly in the central and northeastern regions of China [1] - A total investment of 377 million yuan has been initiated for the modern sheep milk industry park project, aiming to create a closed-loop industrial chain, with the first phase expected to be operational by November next year [2] - The 2025 Hurun China Food Industry Top 100 list includes 11 dairy companies and 3 health food companies, with notable growth in the cheese business of Miaokelando, which saw a 63% increase in value [3] Brand Dynamics - Yili Group's Jin Hao factory has received a "five-star" rating for on-site management from the China Quality Association, marking it as the first dairy factory in China to achieve this recognition [4] - Jianhe Group has signed a new strategic cooperation agreement with JD Health, targeting a combined business goal of 10 billion yuan over the next three years, covering various nutrition brands [5] - Mengniu has launched the "Inner Mongolia Flavor" 2026 plan, showcasing innovative products and aiming to promote domestic raw material substitution in the dairy industry [6] Channel Dynamics - Gao Ge Dairy has initiated the "Student Nutrition Service Station" strategy to address declining foot traffic in traditional maternal and infant channels, targeting families with children aged 3-15 [7] - ThaiBev is shifting its strategic focus towards dairy products and soft drinks, planning to invest in expanding its halal dairy production base in Malaysia as part of its 2030 strategy [8] - Kidswant Ultra has opened its first store in Beijing, integrating cultural elements and popular global IPs to establish a competitive edge in the market [9] - The "Xiaofeixiang" Sichuan-Chongqing branch has been launched, marking a significant step in deepening regional market penetration and resource integration [10]

根据尼尔森零研数据显示，2025年上半年，中国飞鹤婴配粉全渠道市场份额及销量继续稳居市场第一。 据弗若斯特沙利文数据，截至2024年，飞鹤在中国婴幼儿配方奶粉市场连续六年位居第一，在全球婴幼 儿配方奶粉市场连续四年销量第一。 科技创新是中国飞鹤引领行业高质量发展的核心驱动力。依托与全球7个国家20余所顶尖科研机构的深 度合作，飞鹤持续产出重磅研究成果。2025年上半年，飞鹤相继发布"乳蛋白鲜萃提取科技"、国内首个 应用型母乳低聚糖（HMOs）全谱系结构数据库等研究成果，更斩获"中国母乳研究成果第一""中国婴 幼儿配方奶粉专利数第一""中国母源配方营养第一品牌"三大权威认证。 全球化战略的加速推进成为中国飞鹤领军优势的重要支撑，在北美市场，飞鹤加拿大金斯顿工厂生产的 产品已成功进驻北美超过1500家大型商超，2025年上半年门店数环比增长270%。在东南亚市场，飞鹤 以菲律宾为首站，推出了产自"黄金奶源带"并经由"两小时生态圈"保鲜的AceKid纯鲜奶配方奶粉。 当晚，年会举办了"2025金骏马奖颁奖典礼"，对推动资本市场健康发展作出突出贡献的机构与个人予以 表彰。典礼现场颁发了11项重磅奖项，涵盖上市公司、金 ...

如此市场环境下，乳业巨头纷纷承压。 第三季度，伊利营收同比下滑1.70%至286.31亿元。在上半年，蒙牛营收同比下滑6.9%至415.67亿元。 21世纪经济报道记者 贺泓源 市场波动下，乳业市场迎来变局之年。 客观上，这一市场还在收缩。据欧睿数据，2024年我国液态奶行业规模为3442亿元，对应 2011-2021年 CAGR为7.2%。此后，液态奶行业需求阶段性承压，2022-2024年CAGR为-4.2%。尼尔森IQ数据显示， 在2025年9月，乳品全渠道销售额同比下滑16.8%。 落地到区域乳企，则是分化加剧。 三季度，光明乳业液态奶收入同比下滑8.44%至35.40亿元。三元股份液态奶收入同比下滑13%至9.24亿 元。新乳业、君乐宝却保持扩张。 整个市场都在调整期。 显然，伊利在市场起伏中相对稳住了身位。 在2025年前三季度，伊利营收同比增长1.71%至905.64亿元；归母净利润同比下滑4.07%至104.26亿元。 伊利营收下滑，主要受到液体乳市场波动影响。前三季度，伊利液体乳收入同比下滑4.49%至549.39亿 元，其中第三季度液体乳收入同比下滑8.83%至188.1亿元。 背后是，市 ...

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 乳制品行业事件点评：对欧盟进口乳制品采取反 补贴措施，深加工国产替代进程有望加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 商务部公告 2025 年第 83 号：公布对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品反补贴调查的初步裁定—— 调查机关初步认定，原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品存在补贴，中国国内相关乳制品产业受到实 质损害，而且补贴与实质损害之间存在因果关系。国务院关税税则委员会根据商务部的建议作 出决定，自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起，采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对原产于欧盟的进口相关 乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。 董思远 徐爽 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 食品、饮料与烟草 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 乳制品行业事件点评：对欧盟进口乳制品采取 2] 反补贴措施，深加工国产替代进程有望加速 [Table_ ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective decline, with major indices such as the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 Index seeing significant drops, while the Hang Seng Index fell over 1% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.55% at 3867.92 points, with the Shenzhen Component down 1.1%, and the ChiNext down 1.77% [1] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7945 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 320 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector faced a pullback, with stocks like Chipone Technology dropping nearly 12% and Jiangbo Technology down over 8% [1] AI Industry Chain - AI-related stocks saw a significant decline, with companies like Tengjing Technology and Shijia Photon down over 10% [12] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed strength, with China Ping An rising approximately 5%, reaching a four-year high, and other major insurers like China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance also posting gains [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the insurance sector is entering a recovery phase, supported by regulatory policies and improving fundamentals [5] Retail Sector - The retail sector was notably active, with stocks such as Hongqi Chain and Baida Group hitting the daily limit up, and Baida Group achieving three consecutive days of limit-up trading [7][9] - The retail sales total for January to November increased by 4% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [9] Dairy Industry - The dairy sector performed well, with stocks like Huanlejia and Huangshi Group reaching the daily limit up, driven by policy support and improving demand [10] - The industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in consumer confidence and demand, particularly in the infant formula segment [10] Conclusion - Overall, the market showed mixed performance across sectors, with notable declines in technology and AI stocks, while insurance and retail sectors demonstrated resilience and growth potential [1][5][9]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective decline on the 15th, with major indices such as the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 Index falling sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.55% at 3867.92 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.77% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 17,945 billion yuan, a decrease of over 3,200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed strong performance, with China Ping An rising approximately 5%, reaching a new high not seen in over four years. Other companies like China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance also saw gains of around 3% [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the insurance sector is entering a recovery phase, supported by regulatory policies that alleviate pressure on profit margins and improve asset performance. The sector is expected to see a positive growth cycle in new policies and profitability [5] Retail Sector - The retail sector was notably active, with several companies such as Hongqi Chain and Dongbai Group hitting the daily limit up. Dongbai Group achieved six consecutive limit-up days [7][9] - The retail sales total for January to November showed a year-on-year growth of 4%, indicating a faster pace than the previous year [9] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance support for the retail industry, focusing on quality-driven and service-driven development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Dairy Industry - The dairy sector also performed well, with companies like Huanlejia and Huangshi Group reaching their daily limit up. The overall dairy industry is expected to benefit from policy stimuli aimed at improving population issues and increasing demand [11][12] AI Industry - The AI industry saw a significant pullback, with companies like Tengjing Technology and Shijia Photon dropping over 10%. The overall sentiment in the AI sector remains cautious despite ongoing demand for computing power [13][14] - Analysts from CITIC Securities remain optimistic about the AI computing power sector, highlighting the potential for domestic companies to enhance their capabilities and infrastructure [16]

食品饮料板块15日盘中强势拉升，乳业股表现亮眼，截至发稿，欢乐家、皇氏集团、阳光乳业等涨停， 骑士乳业涨超8%，贝因美、晨光生物涨约5%。 消息面上，12月13日，全国医疗保障工作会议在北京召开，国家医保局在会议上发布多项数据和措施， 其中包括，力争2026年全国基本实现政策范围内分娩个人"无自付" 。 2026年，医保部门将推动将灵活就业人员、农民工、新就业形态人员纳入生育保险覆盖范围。合理提升 产前检查医疗费用保障水平，力争全国基本实现政策范围内分娩个人"无自付"。将适宜的分娩镇痛项目 按程序纳入基金支付范围。全面实现生育津贴按程序直接发放给参保人。 开源证券近日指出，近年婴配粉行业需求承压，政策刺激下需求及消费信心有望恢复。从整体乳制品行 业来看，长期也将受益于政策刺激下人口问题改善趋势。此外，近期乳制品行业出现新的积极变化，一 是国内乳企开始利用奶价底部窗口期发展以乳清为代表的深加工产品，产能逐渐释放后有望加大原奶下 游需求，将进一步填补供需缺口；二是行业开始探索出口潜力，当前国内大包粉价格优势明显，乳企在 确保相关指标及生产规范性的前提下尝试出口；两者均带来行业需求新动能，叠加供给侧持续出清，行 业 ...

Core Insights - The nutrition and health industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with declines in infant formula, intensified competition in adult nutrition, and structural differentiation in the pet segment. Despite this, the company achieved a revenue of 10.805 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, indicating stability [1] Group 1: Company Growth Strategy - The core value of the company lies not in a single product explosion but in the establishment of a "whole family nutrition health ecosystem" across infant, adult, and pet segments, extending the consumer lifecycle [1] - The company leverages maternal and infant channels, content marketing, and a comprehensive domestic and international e-commerce system to create a wide-reaching touchpoint network [1] - In the adult segment, Swisse has established clear positioning through a high-end and youthful product matrix across multiple subcategories [1] Group 2: International Market Structure - The company's international layout consists of three layers: - Core driving market (China) accounts for over 70% and remains the growth engine [2] - Mature markets (Australia and New Zealand) show stable growth, with Swisse maintaining a leading position and achieving an 8.9% growth [2] - Expanding markets (Southeast Asia, Middle East, Italy, etc.) are experiencing double-digit growth, representing potential future waves over the next three to five years [3] Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Resilience - The company's supply chain system is crucial for supporting multi-market operations, with six R&D centers and multiple production bases facilitating resource sharing and raw material interchange [3] - The resilience of the supply chain allows the company to maintain stable gross margins during cost fluctuations and ensures product quality consistency within a global traceability system [3] Group 4: Long-term Investment Value - The company possesses three long-term value points: - A multi-category structure that reduces cyclical risks [4] - A multi-regional layout that enhances growth elasticity [4] - A high-end product mix that improves profitability and brand barriers [4] - As the industry transitions from an expansion phase to a refined competition phase, the company's systemic competitiveness in supply chain, internationalization, and brand matrix will be key to its sustained growth capability [4]

雀巢正在经历一场自上而下的大改革。 2025年12月1日，雀巢中国向21世纪经济报道记者确认，惠氏营养品业务和雀巢婴儿营养品业务两大业 务单元将于2026年1月1日起正式合并，成立雀巢营养品业务。谢国耀（Joel Seah）将成为该业务的负责 人。 对此，雀巢大中华区董事长兼首席执行官马凯思向员工表示："这不是倒退，而是为了一个更加美好的 开篇。" "婴儿营养始终是我们的核心业务，我们将继续加大对品牌和渠道的投资。在业务调整过程中，公司严 格依法合规执行。调整不影响现有业务开展，惠氏营养品（中国）有限公司和惠氏（上海）贸易有限公 司将继续运行，惠氏启赋、S-26等品牌将继续服务中国消费者。"雀巢方面如此向21世纪经济报道记者 回应称。 竞争变难 "这一整合将帮助我们重拾增长势头，巩固在中国婴儿营养市场的领导地位。"对于此次整合，雀巢中国 如此解释。 背后是，雀巢婴儿营养板块的核心市场婴配粉行业正走向存量。 毕竟，在婴配粉市场，国产品牌已经占据主导位置。欧睿数据显示，飞鹤、伊利早在2022年就已超越外 资跻身前二。 由此，对雀巢中国来说，将惠氏营养品业务与雀巢婴儿营养品业务两大业务单元合并，有助于减少内 耗，形 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 10.81 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, with all business segments showing positive growth [1] Revenue Breakdown - The adult nutrition and care products segment saw a revenue increase of 6.0% year-on-year [1] - The infant nutrition and care products segment experienced a significant revenue growth of 24.0%, with infant formula revenue rising by 33.3% [1] - The pet nutrition and care products segment recorded a revenue increase of 8.2% year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue for the adult nutrition and care segment grew by 15.7%, with cross-border e-commerce revenue increasing by 23.1% and Douyin revenue soaring by 77.7% [1] - Revenue from Australia declined by 19.4%, attributed to the company's proactive adjustment of purchasing channels, while local growth in Australia was 8.9% [1] - Other regions saw a revenue increase of 19%, mainly driven by high growth in nine emerging markets in Asia [1] Brand Performance - The company's brand, Biostime, achieved a market share of 16.4% in the ultra-premium infant formula market, with a quarterly share of 17.3% in Q3 2025 [1] - The decline in probiotic revenue has narrowed, likely due to new product promotions and the stabilization of pharmacy channels [1] Financial Position - The company ended Q3 2025 with a cash balance of 1.74 billion RMB after repaying 150 million RMB equivalent in USD debt, indicating a strong financial position [1] - Overall, the company is expected to maintain positive growth across multiple business segments, positioning itself as a long-term supplier of nutrition products for all family members [1] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 518 million RMB, 672 million RMB, and 781 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 12, and 11 times [2]