2025 年 9 月 29 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 药明康德 (603259 CH) 药明康德 (603259 CH) - 投资者日：TIDES 势头延续，早期研发初现回暖 药明康德举办了投资者日活动，我们认为此次会议的要点如下：1）TIDES 业务 发展势头不变，产能扩张迅速、管线储备丰富；2）早期研发显现进一步复苏的 信号，将拉动占公司总收入约 1/3 的早期业务收入的增长；3）精细化运营助力 公司在面对宏观不确定性以及进行全球产能扩张的同时保持有韧性的盈利能力。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 40,341 | 39,241 | 43,981 | 50,952 | 58,999 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5 | (2.7) | 12.1 | 15.9 | 15.8 | | 调整后净利润 (百万人民币) | 10,854 | 10,583 | ...

Core Insights - The report from Cinda Securities indicates a significant recovery in domestic innovative drug financing, with a total of $7.75 billion in financing from January to August 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 89% [1] - The secondary market financing reached $5.135 billion, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of about 304% [1] - The CXO industry is experiencing an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies expected to re-enter an expansion phase due to recovering market demand [2] Group 1: CXO Industry Overview - The CXO industry operates on a "water seller" business model, closely tied to the financing of the biopharmaceutical sector [1] - Domestic innovative drug financing has begun to recover, aided by a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market and business development (BD) opportunities abroad [1] - The overall supply-demand relationship in the CXO sector is improving, with leading companies like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics planning significant capital expenditures for 2025, indicating confidence in market recovery [2] Group 2: CDMO Sector Insights - CDMO leaders are experiencing marginal improvements in performance since Q4 2024, driven by high overseas revenue and a recovery in overseas investment and financing demand [3] - The unique business model of CDMOs allows for project pipeline expansion, which can sustain performance growth even amid challenges in new project signings [3] - The demand for new molecules such as peptides and ADCs is robust, prompting CDMO leaders to strategically position themselves in these emerging markets [3] Group 3: CRO Sector Insights - The CRO sector shows performance divergence among leading companies, with some beginning to recover, likely due to their specific business characteristics and operational cycles [4] - Most CRO companies are seeing improvements in order volumes, which serve as a leading indicator for future performance [4] - The slight increase in the price of experimental monkeys suggests a potential recovery in preclinical CRO demand, highlighting the importance of companies that control these scarce resources [4] Group 4: Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec's ADC business, and others, with their valuations falling within reasonable ranges based on their business characteristics and market trends [5][6] - Specific highlights include WuXi AppTec's TIDES business, WuXi Biologics' project reserves, and the resilience of Sunlight Nuohuo's CRO business [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Insights - The CXO industry is experiencing a recovery in market conditions, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a rebound in financing activities for innovative drugs [3][4] - The CDMO sector continues to show high growth potential, with leading companies improving their performance and expanding into emerging markets [5][6] - The CRO sector is approaching a turning point, with signs of demand recovery and improved order conditions [6][7] Summary by Sections CXO Industry Overview - The CXO industry operates on a "water seller" business model, closely tied to the financing of the biopharmaceutical sector. In the first eight months of 2025, overseas innovative drug financing reached $22.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 36%, while domestic innovative drug financing amounted to $7.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 89% [3][31] - The leading companies in the CXO sector are expected to enter an expansion phase as demand recovers, while smaller companies may face increased competition and exit the market [4][44] CDMO Sector - CDMO leading companies have begun to see marginal improvements in performance since Q4 2024, attributed to high overseas revenue and a unique business model that supports project pipeline growth [5][46] - The order situation for CDMO companies has improved significantly, with notable increases in backlogged orders for major players like WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics [49][50] - The CDMO business model is characterized by strong customer retention and project scalability, allowing for sustained growth despite challenges in new project signings [52] CRO Sector - The CRO sector is witnessing a divergence in performance among leading companies, with some starting to recover. The overall order situation has shown improvement, indicating a potential demand revival [6][22] - The price increase of experimental monkeys suggests a forthcoming recovery in preclinical CRO demand, highlighting the importance of resource availability for leading CRO companies [6][24] - The integration of AI in drug development processes is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with many domestic CRO leaders already adopting AI technologies [7][18] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on key players in the CXO sector, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and others, which are positioned well for growth based on their business characteristics and market trends [8][10]

Group 1 - CRO concept stocks have shown significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Viatris (up 12.83% to HKD 2.11), Zhaoyan New Drug (up 9.23% to HKD 24.62), and others [1] - WuXi AppTec has raised its full-year sales forecast after reporting a 141.6% year-on-year increase in TIDES business revenue, reaching RMB 5.03 billion in the first half of the year, driven by high demand in the GLP-1 sector [1] - CICC believes that the valuation center for innovative drug sectors has been adjusted upwards, which will enhance domestic new drug R&D demand and increase financing activity for primary innovative drug projects [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported stable inflation in July, reducing barriers for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating a recovery trend in overall investment and financing [2] - The domestic market for preclinical CRO, clinical CRO, and CDMO services has stabilized in pricing, with a steady recovery in new orders expected to lead to an industry turnaround [2] - Internationally, the CDMO pricing system remains reasonable, and the impact of high pandemic baselines has been absorbed, suggesting a positive trend for overseas orders [2]

Group 1 - CRO concept stocks have shown significant gains, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Viatris Bio (+12.83%), Zhaoyan New Drug (+9.23%), and others [1] - WuXi AppTec has raised its full-year sales forecast after reporting a 141.6% year-on-year increase in TIDES business revenue, reaching RMB 5.03 billion in the first half of the year, driven by high demand in the GLP-1 sector [1] - CICC believes that the valuation center for innovative drug sectors has been adjusted upwards, which will enhance domestic new drug R&D demand and increase financing activity for primary innovative drug projects [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported stable inflation in July, reducing barriers for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2] - Overall investment and financing trends are showing signs of recovery, with prices for preclinical CRO, clinical CRO, and CDMO services stabilizing [2] - The international CDMO business maintains a reasonable pricing structure, with the impact of high pandemic baselines now absorbed [2]

Core Insights - The CXO (Contract Research Organization and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) sector in A-shares shows a mixed performance in the first half of the year, with 19 out of 35 companies reporting a year-on-year profit increase, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - WuXi AppTec leads the CXO companies with a net profit of 5.313 billion yuan, followed by Kelun Pharmaceutical with 1.686 billion yuan, and Tigermed with 1.388 billion yuan [2] - WuXi AppTec's revenue reached 18.871 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.28%, with a net profit growth of 14.61% [2] - Kelun Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 4.622 billion yuan, a decline of 8.33%, and a net profit decrease of 3.09% [3] Group 2: Sector Trends - The demand for peptide drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) is increasing, leading to significant order growth for some CXO companies [4] - WuXi AppTec's TIDES business, focusing on oligonucleotides and peptides, generated 1.33 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 37.9%, with a backlog of orders increasing by 188% [4] - The CRO service provider Boji Pharmaceutical reported a 49% increase in new business contracts, with traditional Chinese medicine contracts growing by approximately 400% [4] Group 3: Market Expansion - Despite a cooling investment environment in the global pharmaceutical sector, several CXO companies are experiencing growth in overseas markets [5] - Kelun Pharmaceutical's revenue from U.S. clients reached 3.348 billion yuan, with a 44.77% increase when excluding large orders [5] - Tigermed's revenue was 3.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.25%, with a net profit growth of 16.47% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Minsheng Securities has issued a recommendation rating for Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456.SH) based on several positive indicators regarding its business performance and growth potential [1] Group 1: Revenue Structure - The revenue structure shows steady growth in the CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business, while the specialty API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) segment has experienced a year-on-year decline [1] Group 2: CDMO Funnel Data - The project funnel size for the CDMO business continues to expand, with a steady increase in the number of commercialized projects [1] Group 3: Emerging Technology Platforms - Significant progress has been made in establishing new technology platforms, with rapid growth in overseas orders for the TIDES (Therapeutics, Immunology, Drug Delivery, and Engineering Solutions) business [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，药明康德(02359)上半年业绩表现强劲，收入及净利润增长稳 健，利润率扩张，TIDES业务表现突出，同时化学业务韧性增长，有助抵销临床CRO及测试业务的疲 软。管理层上调2025年收入指引至425亿至435亿元人民币，即持续经营业务料增长13%至17%，资本开 支维持70亿至80亿元人民币不变。 中银国际将药明康德今明两年盈利预测上调15%及22%，目标价从81 港元升至122港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with robust growth in revenue and net profit, alongside margin expansion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit showed steady growth, indicating a solid financial foundation [1] - The management raised the 2025 revenue guidance to between 42.5 billion to 43.5 billion, reflecting an expected growth of 13% to 17% in ongoing operations [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The TIDES (Therapeutics, Inhalation, Drug Delivery, and Specialty) business performed exceptionally well, contributing significantly to overall growth [1] - The chemical business exhibited resilient growth, showcasing the company's diversified capabilities [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Capital expenditure is expected to remain stable at 7 billion to 8 billion [1] - Earnings forecasts for the next two years have been raised by 15% and 22%, respectively, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 81 HKD to 122 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - WuXi AppTec reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, leading to an optimistic outlook for the full year [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.64% [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 8.56 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 101.92% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 5.58 billion yuan, up 26.47% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 7.43 billion yuan [2]. Market Response - Following the earnings report, the stock price of WuXi AppTec rose over 7% in A-shares and over 11% in H-shares [2]. Business Segments - The chemical business was the primary revenue driver, generating 16.3 billion yuan, a 33.51% increase year-on-year, accounting for nearly 80% of total revenue [4][5]. - The small molecule development and manufacturing (D&M) segment within the chemical business saw a revenue of 8.68 billion yuan, growing 17.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The TIDES business experienced explosive growth, with revenue reaching 5.03 billion yuan, a 141.6% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - The biological business generated 1.25 billion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year, contributing to customer diversification [7][8]. - The testing business reported a slight decline in revenue to 2.69 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year [8]. Global Market Presence - Revenue from U.S. clients was 14.03 billion yuan, a 38.4% increase, representing nearly 70% of total revenue, indicating strong competitiveness in the U.S. market [9][11]. - Revenue from European clients was 2.33 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, reflecting successful market strategies [11]. - Revenue from Chinese clients decreased by 5.2% to 3.15 billion yuan, attributed to the ongoing challenges in the domestic innovation drug market [11]. Order Backlog - The company reported a backlog of 56.69 billion yuan in orders, a 37.2% increase year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for future growth [12][13]. - The growth in backlog is driven by the small molecule CDMO and TIDES businesses, with an increasing proportion of high-value clinical and commercial projects [12][13]. Strategic Outlook - The global expansion and robust order backlog are crucial for the company's future growth, allowing it to leverage global resources and mitigate market risks [13].