2月27日，InfoLink基于自身供需数据库，公开2025年全球组件出货排名： 根据调研，2025 年全球上榜组件供货商总出货量约为536GW，由于末段出货尤其集中，上榜玩家总计有12家。 第一梯队出货区间落在80-90GW，晶科能源与隆基绿能于叠加美国组件厂出货后，以些微差距并列第一。 第二梯队出货区间落在60-70GW，天合光能与晶澳太阳能并列第三。 第一至四名，占据本次出货榜单约58%，以60GW 作为分水岭，与后续企业呈现明显断层。 2月27日，InfoLink基于自身供需数据库，公开2025年全球组件出货排名： 第三梯队落出货在30-50GW，第五与第六名仍维持既有排序，分别为通威股份与正泰新能。 第四梯队出货落在20-30GW，第七名是协鑫集成，第八名由横店东磁与阿特斯并列；第十名为TCL中环、英利发展与一道新能三家并列。 从技术路线看，2025年TOPCon组件已成为全球前十大供货商的一致主力产品。统计显示，上榜企业TOPCon出货占比接近95%，PERC占比仅剩1-2%。至 于BC与HJT技术，受限于爱旭股份及主要HJT厂商未进入榜单，此统计并未能真实反应BC和HJT的全球市场占比，而更侧重 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 行 业 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 投资评级：强于大市 执业证书编号：S0990524110001 电话：0755-83007043 邮箱：lisy@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 最近一年走势 行业事件：2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系 的实施意见》，全国统一电力市场顶层设计出台，电力市场化改革从区域试 点、机制探索，进入了全国一盘棋、系统化推进的新阶段。 指数表现：根据 iFind 数据，2026/2/9-2026/2/15 期间，沪深 300 上涨 0.36%， 电力设备指数上涨 1.13%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.77pct。 行业表现：根据 iFind 数据，2026/2/9-2026/2/15 期间，31 个申万一级行业 中，电力设备上涨 1.13%，排第 13 位。申万三级行业，电力能源相关子板块 中，输变电设备、其他电源设备Ⅲ、电网自动化设备涨幅位列前三位，分别 上涨 5.24%、5.22%、3.98%；光伏电池组件、光伏加工设备、锂电专用设备 跌幅位列前三位，分别下跌 4.08%、3.15%、2.77%。 数据来源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and potential opportunities for JinkoSolar, particularly in light of Elon Musk's interest in space photovoltaic technology, which could provide a new direction for the company amidst its current financial struggles [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - JinkoSolar, once a leader in global solar module shipments, has faced significant challenges in recent years, including a 32.63% year-on-year revenue decline and a net loss of 2.909 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3][12]. - The company's debt levels have risen, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 74.07% and interest-bearing liabilities of 37.914 billion yuan, indicating financial strain [14]. Group 2: Market Context - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is experiencing a severe downturn, with overcapacity leading to a price collapse; product prices have dropped by over 80% from their 2020 peak [12][14]. - The optimistic demand forecast for the global photovoltaic market in 2025 is only 630 GW, while domestic production capacity exceeds 1100 GW, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance [12]. Group 3: Strategic Moves - Elon Musk's exploration of solar technology for space applications has opened a potential new avenue for JinkoSolar, aligning with Musk's vision of deploying solar energy in space [3][16]. - JinkoSolar's management has expressed a commitment to innovation and strategic foresight, with plans to explore opportunities in space photovoltaic technology as a long-term trend [18]. Group 4: Leadership Insights - JinkoSolar's founder, Li Xian-de, has a history of making bold strategic decisions, such as adopting the N-type TOPCon technology early on, which helped the company regain its position in global shipments [9][10]. - Li emphasizes the importance of resilience and foresight in navigating industry cycles, suggesting that current challenges are temporary compared to the long-term trends in the energy sector [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential collaboration between Tesla's Elon Musk and JinkoSolar, focusing on the exploration of space photovoltaic technology as a future energy solution, amidst JinkoSolar's current financial struggles and industry challenges [1][13]. Company Overview - JinkoSolar has been in contact with Elon Musk, who has shown interest in various domestic photovoltaic companies, including JinkoSolar, although no collaboration has been finalized yet [2]. - The company's stock price surged from 6.28 yuan to 8.4 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of 840.44 billion yuan following Musk's visit [2]. - JinkoSolar's financial situation is concerning, with a 32.63% year-on-year revenue decline and a net loss of 2.909 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, alongside a high debt ratio of 74.07% [2][12]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a severe downturn, with overcapacity leading to a significant price drop of more than 80% from 2020 highs, resulting in substantial losses across the sector [9]. - As of 2024, the domestic production capacity for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules exceeds 1,100 GW, while the optimistic global demand forecast for 2025 is only 630 GW [9]. - JinkoSolar's financial health is under pressure, with a debt of 37.914 billion yuan against cash reserves of 29.753 billion yuan, indicating a tight cash flow situation [12]. Strategic Moves - JinkoSolar's founder, Li Xian-de, has a history of making bold strategic decisions, such as adopting the N-type TOPCon technology early on, which helped regain the top global shipment position in 2023 [8]. - The company is now looking towards space photovoltaic technology as a potential breakthrough, aligning with Musk's vision for solar energy in space, which could provide a new revenue stream [13][14]. - Li Xian-de has expressed a long-term vision for the company, emphasizing the importance of not underestimating future trends despite current challenges [14][15].

过去一周，TOPCon组件国内均价为0.739元/瓦，较上周持平。 他说："因分布式光伏管理办法、上网电价市场化改革等政策刚落地，中国市场存在观望情绪，2026年 新增装机量可能出现回调。" Infolink Consulting表示，国内市场在手地面项目订单执行量逐步下滑，新签订单能见度有限；海外市场 拉货节奏受到出口退税影响反转增强。"季节性需求偏弱的背景叠加前期组件涨价的市场氛围，采购趋 于观望态度，第一季度市场订单的能见度不足。" 记者注意到，眼下国内市场新签订单能见度不足的现状，与中国光伏行业协会顾问王勃华日前在光伏行 业2025年发展回顾与2026年形势展望研讨会上给出的全年新增装机预判情况保持一致。 王勃华预计，一般情况下，2026年中国新增光伏装机为180GW，乐观情况可达240GW。但无论何种情 况，预测值均较2025年315.07GW的新增光伏装机有所回落。 轰轰烈烈涨了半个月的光伏组件价格，终于在年前出现持稳的迹象。据行业机构Infolink Consulting最新 统计，过去一周，TOPCon组件国内均价为0.739元/瓦，较上周持平。 而在此之前的1月，受银价上涨影响，下游厂家集体 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]

第三方行业分析机构InfoLink Consulting认为，当前硅料市场缺乏大宗新单成交，下游采购情绪偏观望，部分硅片企业暂缓采购并期 待价格进一步下探。硅片方面，整体成交价格持续下移，高价成交逐步消失，低价区间不断扩大，库存累积迹象开始显现。在终端需求 偏弱、电池片排产下修的背景下，硅片价格短期内难言企稳，涨价预期相对有限。 中游博弈 光伏产业链价格走势出现阶段性分化。 ▲ 图片由AI生成 光伏产业链价格走势出现阶段性分化。在出口退税政策调整、原材料成本波动以及市场需求结构变化等多重因素作用下，组件及电池片 价格呈现上行态势，而硅料、硅片等上游环节价格承压下行，产业链不同环节的价格传导逻辑和节奏出现明显差异。 道琼斯公司发布的监测数据显示，受白银价格快速上涨、"抢出口"需求集中释放等因素影响，TOPCon组件价格已连续三周上涨，涨 幅超30%，远期合约价格同步抬升。与此同时，多晶硅库存高企、硅片去库压力加大，上游价格重心持续走低。 上游承压 从产业链上游看，多晶硅与硅片环节仍处于明显的去库存周期，价格整体延续下行态势，成为当前光伏供应链中承压最突出的部分。 第三方行业研究机构TrendForce集邦咨询旗 ...

1月30日，光伏行业最后一批业绩预告揭晓。在此之前，A股已有24家光伏企业披露了业绩预告数据。 统计显示，其中13家企业净利润亏损较2024年明显收窄，但行业整体仍处于周期底部，企业经营承压态 势尚未根本扭转。在此背景下，阿特斯公布2025年度业绩预告，预计2025年实现归母净利润为人民币9 亿元-11亿元，业绩在行业里凸显韧性。 01 行业转折：寒冬中的曙光 光伏行业的"寒冬"正在出现微弱转机。根据同花顺iFinD数据，已披露2025年度业绩预告的24家光伏公 司中，超过半数实现减亏。 这一趋势背后，是行业从无序扩张向理性发展的艰难转型。2025年下半年以来，"反内卷"政策推动行业 自律，多家光伏企业落实了减产计划，部分玻璃企业减产规模达30%。 市场的反馈也逐渐显现。相比2025年中期0.6元/瓦左右的极端低价，目前头部厂TOPCon组件报价已普 遍抬升至0.85—0.90元/W……种种迹象都表明最困难的时期已经过去了。 然而值得关注的是，巨头们已将目光投向2026年。隆基绿能在《2025年员工持股计划》中明确提出， 2026年考核目标为年度净利润翻正。天合光能同样在近期发布的激励计划中将2026年至20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant losses across all major segments, with a call for recovery and improvement in profitability by 2026, focusing on asset management and pricing power [2][11]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The photovoltaic sector is in a "dark moment," with all major segments, including silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules, reporting losses [2]. - The overall performance of the industry is characterized by high inventory and weak demand, despite some signs of recovery in silicon material prices [3]. - The integrated companies face significant pressure, with a notable decline in profitability due to rising costs of key materials like silver paste [3][6]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Daqo New Energy forecasts a net loss of 1 to 1.3 billion yuan for 2025, but with a reduced loss margin of 52.17% to 63.21% year-on-year due to improved operational efficiency [3]. - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, a reduction of over 2 billion yuan compared to the previous year, driven by increased production efficiency [5]. - Junda Co. anticipates a net loss of 1.5 to 1.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous year's loss of 590 million yuan, citing supply-demand imbalance and price transmission issues [4]. Group 3: Component and Equipment Sector - Companies focusing on Bifacial (BC) modules, such as Aiko Solar, are seeing a significant reduction in losses, with expected losses narrowing from 5.319 billion yuan to between 1.9 billion and 1.2 billion yuan [5]. - The equipment sector, represented by Aotai Technology, is also facing declines, with expected revenue dropping by 26.71% to 30.50% year-on-year [8]. - Silver paste manufacturer Dike Co. is projected to shift from profit to loss, with expected losses of 200 to 300 million yuan due to rising silver prices [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is still in a phase of "deleveraging and capacity reduction," but there are signs of recovery in upstream segments, with discussions about potential profitability improvements in 2026 [11][12]. - Aiko Solar reports that its ABC module sales volume is expected to double, indicating a positive trend despite overall losses [12]. - Analysts predict that the industry may see a shift from supply-demand pricing to cost-based pricing by early 2026, potentially improving profit margins significantly [12].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing widespread losses, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. both forecasting significant net losses for 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected loss of 68 to 74 billion yuan after excluding non-recurring items [2][5]. - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of approximately 90 to 100 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 70.39 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. - Aiko Solar predicts a net loss of 12 to 19 billion yuan for 2025, citing structural overcapacity and ongoing price pressures [7]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a deep adjustment phase, with supply-demand mismatches and intense price competition leading to sustained low operating rates [5][8]. - Rising costs of raw materials, such as silver and silicon, have further pressured profit margins, contributing to the overall losses in the sector [5][6]. - The industry is expected to undergo a reshaping process in 2026 as "anti-involution" measures take effect, potentially restoring supply-demand balance and improving pricing [1][10]. Group 3: Price Trends - Recent data indicates an increase in photovoltaic component prices, with TOPCon and BC components seeing price adjustments due to changes in export tax policies and rising silver prices [1][10]. - The average transaction price for distributed photovoltaic components has reached between 0.67 yuan/watt and 0.8 yuan/watt, with an average of 0.72 yuan/watt [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that policy adjustments may accelerate industry consolidation and capacity elimination, with leading Chinese battery companies likely to enhance their global competitiveness in the long term [11].