wo[Table_Title] Research Report 6 Nov 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 全球科技业绩快报：Uber 25Q3 Uber 25Q3 Earnings Analysis: Profitable Growth Led by Volume and Platform Efficiency 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吕小潼 Xiaotong Lyu 利润路径"稳中提效"，短期有节奏换取长期粘性。公司当前利润路径呈现"稳中提效"特征，即在保持整体盈利能力 稳步提升的同时，更注重增长质量与长期用户粘性的培育。本季度调整后 EBITDA 占总预订额比例提升至 4.5%的历 史新高，但管理层明确表示将有意放缓边际利润率的抬升节奏，转而将利润总额与自由现金流的持续增长作为核 心目标，并积极通过股份回购优化资本回报。Uber One 会员计划作为关键运营抓手，在前 6 个月虽因折扣投入对 利润率形成短期压制，但满期后用户留存、跨平台渗透与终身价值显著改善，有效以短期利润换取了长期生态价 值；目前公司在同时运营出行与配送的市场中，双产品活跃用户渗透率仅 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. gig economy is demonstrating strong profitability, with major platforms Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, and Airbnb collectively generating $4.2 billion in free cash flow, exceeding expectations [1][10] Group 1: Company Performance - Uber leads the industry with $2.475 billion in free cash flow, a 44% year-over-year increase, and revenue of $12.7 billion, up 18% [2][3] - DoorDash's revenue grew 25% to $3.28 billion, surpassing expectations, with a total market value of orders reaching $24.2 billion, a 23% increase [6][7] - Airbnb reported a 13% revenue increase to $3.1 billion and a net profit of $642 million, with a new $6 billion stock buyback plan announced [8][9] - Lyft's revenue of $1.59 billion was slightly below expectations, but it achieved a free cash flow of $329 million, indicating a higher profitability level than Uber [4][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The gig economy is experiencing deep expansion, with non-employer businesses growing at an average rate of 2.7% annually from 2012 to 2023, significantly outpacing traditional employer businesses at 1.1% [11][12] - The transportation and warehousing sectors are primary drivers of this growth, with over 200,000 new non-employer businesses added between 2022 and 2023 [11] - Despite some sectors like retail contracting, non-employer businesses contribute approximately $1.8 trillion to GDP, accounting for 6.4% of the U.S. economy [12]

Core Viewpoint - Uber's latest financial report indicates strong growth signals with revenue exceeding expectations and a significant $20 billion stock buyback plan. The traditional ride-hailing business is experiencing a slowdown, while the food delivery segment is accelerating, driven by the success of the Uber One membership program, which is becoming a new pillar of performance [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Uber reported revenue of $12.65 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $12.46 billion. Net profit rose to $1.36 billion, or $0.63 per share, exceeding last year's $1.02 billion. Total order volume grew 17% to $46.8 billion, with monthly active platform users (MAPCs) increasing 15% to a record 180 million [3][4]. Stock Buyback - Uber announced a new $20 billion stock buyback authorization, bringing the total buyback capacity to approximately $23 billion, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Delivery Business Growth - The food delivery segment saw total order volume reach $21.73 billion in Q2, a 20% year-over-year increase, significantly outpacing the traditional ride-hailing business. The growth in the delivery segment is attributed to the successful Uber One membership program, which now has 36 million members, a 60% increase year-over-year [6][8]. Ride-Hailing Business Slowdown - In contrast to the delivery segment, Uber's core ride-hailing business experienced a slowdown, with total order volume of $23.76 billion, an 18% year-over-year increase, slightly below market expectations. However, the total number of trips increased by 19%, indicating healthy user engagement [8][12]. Autonomous Driving Strategy - Uber's strategy in the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector focuses on a "light asset" and "platform-led" approach, avoiding heavy investments in full-stack self-development. The company has established partnerships with 20 AV-related firms, including Waymo and Baidu's Apollo [9][10]. Profitability Outlook - Uber provided a stable performance outlook, expecting Q3 total order volume between $48.25 billion and $49.75 billion, with year-over-year growth of 17% to 21%. However, analysts are concerned about the profit margin, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $2.19 billion and $2.29 billion, indicating a decrease in profit margin compared to Q2 [12][14]. Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts maintain a positive outlook on Uber's future, with Bank of America reiterating a "buy" rating and a target price of $115, citing strong revenue growth and a significant discount compared to the FANG sector. JPMorgan also maintains an "overweight" rating, highlighting Uber's advantageous position in future AV deployments [15].

Core Insights - The U.S. gig economy is demonstrating strong profitability, with major platforms Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, and Airbnb collectively generating $4.2 billion in free cash flow, exceeding expectations [1][7] Group 1: Uber - Uber leads the gig economy with a free cash flow of $2.475 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and revenue of $12.7 billion, up 18% [2] - The total bookings for Uber's ride-hailing and delivery services grew by 16% and 20%, respectively, indicating sustained growth in a competitive market [1][2] - Uber's CEO announced a $20 billion stock buyback plan and raised third-quarter booking guidance to between $48.25 billion and $49.75 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [2] Group 2: Lyft - Lyft's revenue for the quarter was $1.59 billion, slightly below expectations, but it reported a free cash flow of $329 million, which is 7% of total bookings, indicating a higher profitability level than Uber [2] - Lyft raised its booking guidance for the quarter to between $4.65 billion and $4.8 billion, significantly above the expected $4.59 billion [3] Group 3: DoorDash - DoorDash reported a revenue increase of 25% to $3.28 billion, exceeding expectations, with a total order volume growth of 20% to 761 million orders [4] - The company's market gross order value (GOV) reached $24.2 billion, up 23% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the restaurant sector [4] - DoorDash is accelerating its expansion in Europe, preparing for direct competition with Uber [4] Group 4: Airbnb - Airbnb's revenue for the second quarter was $3.1 billion, a 13% increase, and net profit rose 16% to $642 million, surpassing market expectations [5][6] - The company announced a new $6 billion stock buyback plan, reflecting confidence in future business prospects [6] Group 5: Gig Economy Trends - The strong performance of these platforms reflects the deep expansion of the U.S. gig economy, with non-employer businesses growing at an average rate of 2.7% annually from 2012 to 2023, significantly outpacing traditional employer businesses [7] - The transportation and warehousing sectors are key drivers of this growth, with over 200,000 new non-employer businesses established between 2022 and 2023 [7] - Despite some sectors like retail contracting, non-employer businesses contribute approximately $1.8 trillion to GDP, accounting for 6.4% of the U.S. economy [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. gig economy is demonstrating strong profitability, with major platforms Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, and Airbnb collectively generating $4.2 billion in free cash flow, exceeding expectations [1] Group 1: Uber - Uber leads the gig economy with a free cash flow of $2.475 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44%, and revenue of $12.7 billion, up 18% [2] - The total bookings for Uber's ride-hailing and delivery services grew by 16% and 20%, respectively, indicating sustained growth in a competitive market [1][2] - Uber's CEO announced a $20 billion stock buyback plan and raised third-quarter booking guidance to between $48.25 billion and $49.75 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [2] Group 2: Lyft - Lyft's revenue for the quarter was $1.59 billion, slightly below expectations, but it reported a free cash flow of $329 million, which is 7% of total bookings, indicating a higher profitability level than Uber [2] - Lyft raised its booking guidance for the quarter to between $4.65 billion and $4.8 billion, significantly above the expected $4.59 billion [3] Group 3: DoorDash - DoorDash reported a revenue increase of 25% to $3.28 billion, exceeding expectations, with a total order volume growth of 20% to 761 million orders [4] - The company's market gross order value (GOV) reached $24.2 billion, up 23% year-on-year, and it is accelerating its expansion in Europe [4] Group 4: Airbnb - Airbnb's second-quarter revenue was $3.1 billion, a 13% increase, surpassing market expectations, with a net profit of $642 million, up 16% [6] - The company announced a new $6 billion stock buyback plan, reflecting confidence in its future business prospects [6] Group 5: Gig Economy Trends - The strong performance of these platforms reflects the deep expansion of the U.S. gig economy, with non-employer businesses growing at an average rate of 2.7% annually from 2012 to 2023, significantly outpacing traditional employer businesses [7] - The transportation and warehousing sectors are major drivers of this growth, with over 200,000 new non-employer businesses added between 2022 and 2023 [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, Uber achieved all-time highs in audience and frequency, with trips and gross bookings both increasing by 18% [5] - Adjusted EBITDA, GAAP operating income, and free cash flow also reached new highs [5] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in Q3, projecting high teens growth in gross bookings and low to mid-30s growth in EBITDA [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The introduction of lower-cost products, such as Moto, contributed to a significant audience growth of 15% [22] - The premium business surpassed $10 billion, growing at 35%, while the reserve business grew by 60% [22] - Uber One membership increased by 6 million quarter over quarter, reaching a total of 36 million members, with a focus on enhancing mobility offerings [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the top 10 markets, only about 20% of consumers aged 18 and older use Uber on a monthly basis, indicating substantial room for audience expansion [24] - The average Waymo vehicle deployed on Uber's network is busier than 99% of human drivers in terms of completed trips per day [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Uber is focusing on a platform strategy that integrates mobility and delivery services, aiming to increase cross-platform engagement [6] - The company announced a $20 billion share repurchase authorization to enhance shareholder value [7] - Uber is investing in autonomous vehicle partnerships and expanding its operating zones, with significant progress in partnerships with Waymo and others [7][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued growth of audience and bookings, driven by the introduction of new products and improved pricing strategies [50] - The company is optimistic about the future of autonomous vehicles, with plans to ramp up deployments significantly [7][28] - Management highlighted the importance of experimentation and targeted promotions to enhance consumer engagement across platforms [10][11] Other Important Information - Uber's advertising business is growing rapidly, with plans to externalize technical capabilities, including data licensing opportunities [78] - The company is exploring various business models for autonomous vehicles, including merchant and agency models [64] Q&A Session Summary Question: Follow-up on platform initiatives and consumer behavior - Management acknowledged the challenges of executing cross-platform promotions but noted that users engaging with both mobility and delivery services have higher retention rates and generate more bookings [10][11] Question: Insights on audience growth and autonomous vehicle deployment - Management attributed audience growth to the introduction of lower-cost products and emphasized the ongoing potential for expansion in the market [22][24] - Updates on autonomous vehicle utilization indicated that Waymo vehicles are performing exceptionally well on the network [28] Question: Clarification on vehicle commitments and partnerships - Management discussed the strategic importance of partnerships with Neuro and Lucid, emphasizing the benefits of increased supply for the platform [33][64] Question: Consumer response to pricing changes and confidence in trip acceleration - Management reported positive consumer responses to pricing adjustments, with expectations for continued growth in mobility trips [50][51] Question: Future of OEM partnerships and market share - Management expressed confidence in expanding OEM partnerships and highlighted the competitive landscape for autonomous vehicles [43][46]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts have become optimistic about Uber due to its strong defensive capabilities and potential for robust growth supported by consumer behavior trends [3][4]. Financial Performance - Since receiving a "Strong Buy" rating, Uber's stock has outperformed the market by over 30%, indicating strong company performance [4]. - Uber's revenue and profit have been consistently rising, with record sales and accelerating growth in recent quarters [6][8]. - The company reported significant year-over-year revenue growth, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching $11.96 billion, a 20.36% increase [7]. Growth Drivers - Uber's core competitive advantages include strong network effects, solid technological execution, and the successful Uber One membership program, which has seen a 60% year-over-year increase in total members [9][10]. - Analysts expect Uber's revenue to achieve mid-to-low double-digit growth in the foreseeable future, with an average EPS growth rate of 20% over the next few years [10]. Valuation - Uber's current P/E ratio is only 3.5 times, indicating that its valuation is relatively low compared to its growth potential [11]. - The company is expected to maintain stable financial performance, which should support its stock price against market volatility [11]. - Analysts believe that paying 17 times the projected earnings for FY27 is a sound capital allocation given Uber's strong market position [13]. Conclusion - Overall, Uber appears to be undervalued, especially considering its organic growth and strong business execution [15].