2025.09. 04 本文字数：3286，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 "目前的价格已经足够有吸引力。"面对不断刷新最低价的无人车售价，一位快递行业从业者发出了如此感叹。 今年以来，多家厂商下调了价格或者给出更优惠的政策，带动不少快递从业者从高价尝鲜转为低价大批量采购，无人车进入了快速普及阶段。 9月3日，新石器宣布针对旗下主力车型X3、X6货厢车推出了"零首付、零利息、48期分期"购车方案，在竞争白热化的无人配送车领域掀起新一轮热 潮。 足够有吸引力的价格 快递网点负责人李黎是最早购入无人车的从业者之一，他切身感受到了过去一年无人车价格的下降。李黎回忆称，他在2024年年初购入一辆无人车， 购车费加上5年服务收费成本在20万元左右，到了今年年初下降至13万~14万元，而近期价格已经到了10万元。 从模式看，部分厂商收费采用单车+服务费的模式，单车价格降至低点。6月，菜鸟宣布推出新款无人车GT-Lite，该款车型定价2.18万。同时菜鸟表示 叠加限时优惠后售价为1.68万元。算上每年2万元的服务费后，一台GT-Lite的5年花费预计在11.7万元左右。菜鸟相关负责人表示，新款平价车型与高 ...

Summary of the Autonomous Logistics Vehicle Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The autonomous logistics vehicle industry is experiencing explosive growth, with an expected scale of 30,000 units by 2025, increasing to 100,000 units by 2026, and potentially reaching 600,000 units by 2030. The penetration rate could reach 30% in the short term, corresponding to a market space of approximately 600,000 vehicles, with long-term potential exceeding 1 million vehicles [2][4][19]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Profitability Model**: Companies primarily profit through hardware sales and Full Self-Driving (FSD) services. Initial hardware sales may incur losses, but the software service model is profitable. A breakeven point is reached at 5,000 units sold, with a profit of 40,000 to 50,000 yuan per vehicle at 50,000 units sold, resulting in a net profit margin close to 50% [2][5][22]. - **Cost Reduction**: The cost of logistics has significantly decreased, with the cost per delivery dropping to 0.08 yuan, a 60% reduction compared to traditional methods. The hardware cost gap with traditional logistics vehicles has narrowed to about 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, enhancing economic viability [2][17]. - **Technological Development**: The industry is moving towards lightweight mapping and even no-mapping solutions, which lower costs and deployment times but require higher data collection and algorithm demands. The deployment time for lightweight mapping is significantly shorter, taking only one to two days compared to two weeks to a month for high-definition mapping [2][6][16]. - **Policy Support**: There is increasing policy support, with over 200 cities in China accelerating the issuance of road usage permits, simplifying processes for industry development [2][13][14]. Competitive Landscape - **Barriers to Entry**: The competitive barriers in the autonomous logistics vehicle sector include access rights, differences in autonomous driving technology, and innovation in business models. Efficiently mobilizing resources to meet diverse demands is crucial [3][21]. - **Market Leaders**: Key players include the publicly listed company WeRide, Jinlong Automobile, and Zhongyou Technology. Other notable companies include intelligent hardware manufacturers and electric vehicle-related firms [8][23][24]. Market Demand and Growth Expectations - **Order Growth**: Major manufacturers are seeing significant increases in orders, with companies like 90 and New Stone achieving substantial sales targets. The market demand is strong and continues to grow [18][19]. - **Future Projections**: The industry is expected to grow significantly in the coming years, with projections of 30,000 units in 2025, 100,000 units in 2026, and 600,000 units by 2030. Chinese companies are growing rapidly, while overseas markets are expanding at a slower pace [19][20]. Application Scenarios - **Ideal Use Cases**: Short-distance transportation scenarios, such as urban cross-district or rural-urban routes, are more suitable for autonomous logistics development due to their standardization potential. The e-commerce and express delivery sectors are the most mature and automated, making them the first to adopt autonomous logistics solutions [11][12]. Conclusion - The autonomous logistics vehicle industry is at a pivotal moment, driven by technological advancements, significant cost reductions, and strong policy support. The competitive landscape is evolving, with established players and new entrants vying for market share. The future looks promising, with substantial growth expected in both domestic and international markets.