编辑/周毅 9月23日，位于"中国快递之乡"桐庐的新石器无人车生产基地内，第1万台无人物流车缓缓驶下生产线。 企业创始人兼CEO余恩源在接受采访时，现场爆料实时销售数据："我们现在的销量是每月2000多台，相当于过去两年的量。不算海外，预计明年的市场 需求将达到4-5万台，相当于过去10年总销量的4-5倍。" 等待交付的新石器无人车 这组数据并非个例，而是中国无人物流车行业整体爆发的缩影——2025年上半年全行业交付量已达1.2万台，超过2024年全年近一倍，德赛西威、佑驾创 新等跨界玩家密集入局，赛道迎来"钢铁洪流"式增长。 01.新人扎堆入场，老兵订单暴增 佑驾创新9月中旬发布的小竹无人车 据观察者网不完全统计，仅2025年三季度就有至少6家上市公司跨界切入或发布新品扩大布局无人物流车，订单量较去年同期增长10倍以上。 需要指出的是，新玩家的涌入并未分流头部企业的增长红利，反而随着蛋糕的迅速做大，收获订单呈现指数级增长。 "新石器去年全年销售才一千多台，2025年初一个月就达到去年一年的量；到今天，我们一个月的销量超过过去两年。"余恩源在采访中透露，生产基地已 启动三班倒模式，仍在紧急扩充产能，比如新增的 ...

（文/张志峰 编辑/周毅） 9月23日，位于"中国快递之乡"桐庐的新石器无人车生产基地内，第1万台无人物流车缓缓驶下生产线。 企业创始人兼CEO余恩源在接受采访时，现场爆料实时销售数据："我们现在的销量是每月2000多台，相当于过去两年的量。不算海外，预计明年的市场需 求将达到4-5万台，相当于过去10年总销量的4-5倍。" T NIT S ist C) 8 8 < B e [ 客服电话 400- (P 等待交付的新石器无人车 这组数据并非个例，而是中国无人物流车行业整体爆发的缩影——2025年上半年全行业交付量已达1.2万台，超过2024年全年近一倍，德赛西威、佑驾创新 等跨界玩家密集入局，赛道迎来"钢铁洪流"式增长。 新人扎堆入场，老兵订单暴增 "现在每周都能接到新入局者的咨询电话，连传统车企都来问供应链方案。"余恩源的感受得到行业数据印证：2025年初，以Robotaxi业务起家的文远知行 WeRide，针对城市高频物流场景，推出了全新的无人物流车Robovan W5；2025年7月，京东推出自研VAN无人轻卡，加入无人物流车赛道；2025年9月，德 赛西威推出"川行致远"品牌，发布车规级无人配送车；同 ...

末端配送成本占到物流总成本超30%，且随着人力成本持续上升，无人配送需求日益迫切。据了解，在 政策、市场、成本三方面加持下，无人车在医药、重物配送、快递等领域纷纷落地，商业化取得显著成 果。这背后，出现了不少上市公司的身影。 行业按下加速键 日前举行的2025全球智慧物流峰会无人车论坛上透露了一组数据：截至2025年9月，中国3600个区县 中，超1900个已支持无人车上路，占比过半，政策支持范围仍在持续扩大。 市场需求爆发成为行业发展的"助推器"。无人车论坛上，中盈医药集团董事长庄怀凯深有体会："在医 药流通中，配送对药品质量至关重要，但传统隔日、次日达的模式，已无法满足当下需求。尤其是加急 药品，客户对时效的要求越来越高。" 数据显示，末端配送成本占物流总成本比例超过30%，且人力成本持续上升，而即时零售市场规模的扩 大，进一步加剧了运力缺口。润泽汇数字科技控股集团董事长毛中吾跨界进入物流行业后，也发现了重 物配送的痛点："全国有70万个水站，销售一桶水的物流成本很高，同时水店从业者年龄偏大，送水体 力消耗大，这些都需要技术来解决。" 成本下降则为行业商业化扫清了障碍，目前无人车已进入价格快速下降通道。 ...

Core Insights - A fierce price war is sweeping the unmanned logistics vehicle industry, with companies like Neolix introducing attractive financing options and free services, marking a shift from high-tech products to cost-effective logistics tools [1][2] - The price drop has led to a significant increase in market demand, with over 60% of the 15,000 units delivered by mid-2025 coming after the price war began [2][4] - The influx of capital and technological advancements are driving this transformation, with major companies raising substantial funds to support their operations [4][6] Price War Dynamics - The price of unmanned vehicles has plummeted from around 200,000 yuan to approximately 100,000 yuan, including service fees [1][2] - Companies like Cainiao and Jiusense are setting aggressive price points, with models priced as low as 16,800 yuan and 19,800 yuan respectively [2] - The operational efficiency of unmanned vehicles is improving, with delivery times reduced significantly, allowing for increased package handling by delivery personnel [2][4] Capital and Investment - Major companies have raised over 3 billion yuan in funding within a few months, indicating strong investor interest in the unmanned logistics sector [4][6] - Neolix and Jiusense have secured significant investments from prominent backers, enhancing their market positions [4][6] Technological Advancements - The cost of essential components like laser radars has decreased dramatically, contributing to the overall reduction in vehicle prices [7] - The establishment of self-owned factories by leading firms has led to significant manufacturing cost reductions [7] Future Competition Landscape - As the price competition intensifies, companies are shifting focus from price to ecosystem development, emphasizing the importance of innovation and service capabilities [8][9] - The future success in the unmanned logistics market will depend on companies' abilities to understand logistics challenges and provide reliable services [9][10]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index rose by 3.82%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index surged over 7%, indicating a strong performance in the AI technology sector [1] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. achieved a five-day consecutive increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Companies like Feile Audio and Tianfu Communication are expanding their product offerings in automotive electronics and high-power semiconductor chips, respectively [3][5] Group 2 - Nvidia's CFO predicts that AI infrastructure spending will reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, highlighting the growing investment in AI technologies [3] - Longfly Optical Fiber, a leading global player in the optical fiber and cable industry, has secured projects with advanced hollow core technology [3] - Companies such as East Mountain Precision and Deep South Circuit are making significant moves in the PCB and electronic materials sectors, with acquisitions and expansions planned [5][6] Group 3 - The State Council has issued guidelines to promote the development of the satellite communication industry, indicating government support for this sector [6] - Companies like Aibisen and Tianfu Communication reported substantial year-on-year profit growth, with increases of 30.84% and 37.46%, respectively [6] - The domestic ETC chip market leader reported a 149.33% increase in net profit for the first half of the year, showcasing strong financial performance [6] Group 4 - The market transaction volume has consistently exceeded 2 trillion, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, reflecting robust market activity [10] - Companies in the rare earth sector, such as China Minmetals, are experiencing significant performance increases, driven by new regulatory measures [10] - The government is accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and new consumption models, indicating a shift in economic focus [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector is expected to have the highest earnings growth, while the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is anticipated to show the most significant improvement in performance [2] - The light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors are projected to have high earnings growth in their mid-year reports, whereas the construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are expected to show substantial performance improvements [2] Industry Research - The autonomous logistics vehicle market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the complete commercialization of autonomous logistics vehicles, which are set to reshape urban delivery ecosystems [6] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from the new long-cycle assessment requirements, which will allow insurance companies to invest more aggressively in the market by smoothing out short-term performance fluctuations [7] - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a rebound in oil prices due to increased demand and OPEC+ production adjustments, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.1% and 3.4% respectively [9] - The basic chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in organic silicon prices following the closure of a major production facility by Dow Chemical, which will reduce supply in Europe [10] - The livestock sector is showing signs of recovery with improved pig prices and a long-term upward trend in profitability expected [11] - The copper industry is facing potential supply pressures due to changes in U.S. tariffs and inventory flows, with investment recommendations focusing on several key companies [12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain stable supply and demand dynamics, with a positive outlook for coal prices during the summer peak [13] Company Research - China State Construction Engineering Corporation is highlighted for its competitive dividend yield compared to banks, with stable earnings growth and a strong order book, maintaining a "buy" rating [14] - TCL Technology is recognized for its improving display business profits, although its solar energy segment remains under pressure, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15] - Sunny Optical Technology is expected to benefit from rising optical specifications and increased automotive lens shipments, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being raised [16][17] - Miao Ke Lan Duo is projected to achieve significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable cheese consumption trends, maintaining an "overweight" rating [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential growth and commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles, highlighting their efficiency in urban delivery and the favorable conditions for large-scale deployment by 2030 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Application and Market Potential - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily used for short-distance transportation and last-mile delivery, effectively addressing labor shortages in remote areas and peak times, with high delivery efficiency and broad application range [2]. - The current penetration rate of unmanned logistics vehicles is approximately 0.1%, indicating significant growth potential, with projections suggesting sales could exceed 800,000 units and market size could surpass 10 billion by 2030 [4]. Group 2: Commercialization Factors - The commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles is supported by mature conditions in policy, technology, and cost, with favorable regulations in second and third-tier cities and a rapid increase in road licenses since 2024 [3]. - Technologically, unmanned logistics vehicles operate in low-speed and fixed-route scenarios, which lowers the algorithm and computing power requirements compared to other L4 autonomous driving applications [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Industry Dynamics - Short-term profitability is expected to be higher for component suppliers than for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), with a focus on domain control and steer-by-wire chassis suppliers [5]. - Unmanned logistics vehicle companies may primarily rely on software service fees for profitability, with component manufacturers that have platform capabilities and deep ties with leading unmanned logistics firms being favored [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Autonomous Logistics Vehicles Industry Overview - The autonomous logistics vehicle market is expected to experience a significant boom in 2025, driven by policy support and improved supply-demand dynamics, making product prices more accessible to the market [1][2] - Major players in the market include G90, White Rhino, and Cainiao, with new entrants like Wen Yuan expected to join soon [1][2] Key Insights and Arguments - G90's customer base primarily targets the logistics sector, with 70% of revenue coming from express delivery points and urban distribution, while factory transfer and customized services each account for 15% [1][8] - G90 employs an annual purchase and renewal business model, allowing customers to buy a one-year usage right and lease or sell to smaller outlets [1][9] - The BOM cost of G90's E6 model is approximately 45,000 yuan, with profitability achieved through subsequent service fees [1][12] - G90 aims to deliver 10,000 autonomous vehicles in 2025, 50,000 in 2026, and 100,000 in 2027, with large-scale shipments expected to begin by the end of this year [3][34] Policy Support - Initial policy support for autonomous logistics vehicles has come from smart connected cities, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen leading the way [4] - The government has introduced policies to reduce overall logistics costs, prompting local governments to gradually relax restrictions [4] Cost Structure and Business Model - G90's vehicles are sold with a bundled pricing model, where the hardware cost is around 50,000 yuan, plus a service fee of 28,000 yuan, totaling 78,000 yuan [10] - The cost structure of G90's products is divided into three main components: chassis (50%), perception suite (25%), and domain controller (15%) [11] - The industry generally adopts a leasing model, with service fees becoming the primary revenue source as hardware entry barriers decrease [17] Market Dynamics and Competition - The competition in the express delivery industry is influenced by licensing, the stability of autonomous systems, and cost advantages, which form the main barriers to entry [25] - G90's strategy with the 16 model targets small and hesitant customers, focusing on market share through scale rather than price competition [35] Customer Retention and Renewal Rates - The second-year renewal rate for customers using autonomous vehicle services is 100%, as the cost decreases significantly after the first year [31] Fault Handling and Reliability - The fault rate for autonomous vehicles is approximately 1 in 10,000, with a response time of about one hour for hardware issues [33] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate, with only a few manufacturers remaining due to competitive pressures, following the Pareto principle [32]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower on June 13, with significant declines observed by midday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3378.01 points, down 0.72%, with a trading volume of approximately 367.1 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.15% to 10116.26 points, with a trading volume of about 545.1 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.14% to 2043.61 points, with a trading volume of around 259.7 billion yuan [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board Index dropped 1.35% to 1174.22 points, with a trading volume of approximately 66.1 billion yuan. The North Star 50 Index fell 1.43% to 1404.06 points, with a trading volume of about 24.1 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The mining service sector saw significant gains in the morning session, while sectors such as nuclear pollution prevention, precious metals, combustible ice, jewelry, port shipping, aerospace, and gas also experienced notable increases [1] - Conversely, sectors such as beauty care, blind box economy, and AI corpus faced the largest declines [1] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current high valuations of domestic gold mining stocks have sparked discussions on valuation methods and potential upside. The combination of rising gold prices and increased production capacity is expected to drive the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio higher [2] - The domestic gold mining sector is considered significantly undervalued in terms of cash flow and resources, with potential for revaluation as new valuation methods are adopted [2] - Guotai Junan Securities noted the growing application of unmanned logistics vehicles, primarily in last-mile delivery for express services, with several companies, including startups and established logistics firms, launching their products [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the development and commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles, driven by advancements in communication technology, model computing power, and energy revolution, which enhance delivery efficiency and service quality in the express delivery and takeaway sectors [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Approximately 100 cities in China have issued licenses for unmanned vehicles, with expectations that by 2027, most suitable cities will have completed the licensing process [2]. - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily utilized in four scenarios: transportation (50-200 km), transshipment (10-50 km), short-haul (1-10 km), and last-mile delivery (less than 1 km) [1][5]. - The express delivery industry anticipates a business volume of 206 billion packages by 2025, with potential for 10 billion packages to incorporate sensors, leading to a fully unmanned logistics chain [8]. - The cost of leasing unmanned vehicles is approximately 40,000 yuan annually, while purchasing costs around 26,000 yuan, with a focus on reducing costs (15%-50%) and improving efficiency (1.5%-2.5%) [3][10][11]. Important but Overlooked Content - The logistics industry is seeing a significant increase in the use of reusable packaging with built-in sensors, costing around 2-3 yuan each, which can enhance safety and tracking [7]. - The battery issue remains a critical challenge, with solutions including rapid battery swapping (adding 8,000 yuan in costs) and fast charging (adding 3,000 yuan) [9]. - The operational efficiency of unmanned vehicles can improve marginal benefits at secondary distribution points by 15%-35%, depending on the specific circumstances [13]. - Major logistics companies are planning to purchase between 3,000 to 6,000 unmanned vehicles in 2025, with significant regional variations in deployment [15]. - The future of unmanned logistics vehicles is promising, particularly in smart warehousing and overseas markets, with companies actively exploring these opportunities [18][19]. Conclusion - The unmanned logistics vehicle sector is poised for growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for efficiency in logistics operations. The focus on battery technology and the development of vehicles suitable for various scenarios will be crucial for future success in this industry [19][20].