Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has launched its latest flagship smartphones, the Xiaomi 17 and 17 Ultra, amidst a significant increase in memory chip prices that could impact sales [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Pricing - The Xiaomi 17 starts at 999 euros ($1,179) and the Xiaomi 17 Ultra starts at 1,499 euros, maintaining prices from last year's flagship despite rising memory costs [2]. - The surge in memory prices, which have increased by 80% to 90% in the first quarter, is attributed to a shortage of chips as supply is redirected to data centers for AI [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Forecasts - Gartner forecasts a potential 13% increase in smartphone prices by 2026, while IDC predicts a 12.9% decline in the smartphone market due to the chip shortage [3]. - Analysts suggest that companies selling more expensive phones may be better positioned to absorb costs, but Xiaomi's primary volume comes from mid-range devices, which may face demand challenges [4]. Group 3: Company Performance and Strategy - Xiaomi's management has indicated that the industry may need to raise smartphone prices in 2026, highlighting the company's weaker position in the premium segment compared to competitors like Apple and Samsung [5]. - The company has been increasing its focus on the electric vehicle business, which now accounts for about 25% of total sales, providing a crucial revenue stream amid the memory chip crisis [6]. - In the September quarter, Xiaomi reported a 3% year-on-year decline in smartphone revenue, while its electric vehicle sales surged nearly 200% [7].

Core Insights - The Chinese smartphone market is projected to see a slight decline in shipments, with a total of 282.3 million units expected in 2025, representing a 1% decrease from 2024 [9] - Huawei leads the market with 46.8 million units shipped, capturing 17% market share, followed closely by Vivo and Apple [9] - Apple shows significant growth, particularly in Q4 2025, where it achieved 22% market share with 16.5 million units shipped [6][9] Market Performance - In Q4 2025, the overall smartphone market in China saw a 1% year-on-year decline, with total shipments of 76.4 million units [9] - Apple ranked first in Q4 shipments with 16.5 million units, while Vivo and OPPO followed closely [9] - Huawei's performance in Q4 was weaker, with 1.11 million units shipped, placing it fourth [9] Company Strategies - Apple is leveraging product differentiation and an upgraded product mix to drive sales, with the iPhone 17 series receiving positive consumer feedback [4] - Huawei is investing heavily in its HarmonyOS ecosystem, committing 1 billion RMB to support innovation in AI and its operating system [4] - Xiaomi is strategically launching its flagship model earlier to compete effectively against rivals [4] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that rising costs will pose significant challenges for smartphone manufacturers in both China and globally in 2026 [8] - Despite cost pressures, companies are expected to continue investing in long-term value areas such as channel upgrades and AI development [8] - The market is anticipated to maintain a foundation for steady growth and product innovation in 2026 [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese smartphone market is projected to see a slight decline in shipments in 2025, with a total of 282.3 million units, down 1% from the previous year. Huawei leads the market with a 17% share, followed closely by Vivo and Apple, while the overall market dynamics are influenced by government subsidy policies and product differentiation strategies [2][6][9]. Market Performance - In 2025, Huawei's shipments reached 46.8 million units, maintaining a 17% market share, while Vivo and Apple followed closely with 46.0 million and 45.9 million units, respectively. Xiaomi and OPPO rounded out the top five with shipments of 43.7 million and 42.8 million units [9]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a total shipment of 76.4 million units, a year-on-year decline of 1%. Apple led this quarter with 16.5 million units, capturing a 22% market share, while Vivo and OPPO showed improved performance compared to the previous year [2][9]. Strategic Insights - Apple has successfully increased its shipments through a differentiated product strategy, particularly with the iPhone 17 series, which has been well-received by consumers. The company has maintained competitive pricing for its base models, enhancing its product mix [4]. - Huawei is investing heavily in its HarmonyOS ecosystem, committing 1 billion RMB to support innovation in AI and the operating system, while Xiaomi is strategically timing the release of its flagship model to stay competitive [4][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that rising costs will pose significant challenges for smartphone manufacturers in both China and globally in 2026. The increasing prices of storage components will require companies to balance cost distribution, pricing competitiveness, and hardware upgrades [8]. - Despite cost pressures, manufacturers are expected to continue investing in long-term value areas such as channel upgrades, AI, and cross-device ecosystem experiences, indicating that 2026 could still be a year of value growth and product innovation in the Chinese market [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xiaomi Corp. with a 12-month target price of HK$53.50, indicating an upside potential of 38.0% from the current price of HK$38.76 [15][17]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is positioned as the world's 3 smartphone brand and a leading consumer AIoT/NEV platform, with a multi-year ecosystem expansion strategy under the "Human x Car x Home" framework, projecting revenue and EPS CAGRs of 24% and 28% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [13]. - The company plans to invest Rmb200 billion in R&D from 2026 to 2030, focusing on AI, assisted driving, and chipset development to enhance its competitive edge [7][14]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi aims to increase the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones by raising prices for premium models and optimizing product structure, targeting a 1 percentage point annual market share increase in China [7][8]. - The company expects revenue growth in 2026 to be supported by government consumption subsidies and overseas expansion, while maintaining gross profit margin (GPM) at or above 2025 levels by reducing low-margin categories [8] AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is seen as a profit stabilizer, with a revenue growth of approximately 20% year-over-year and a contribution of around 30% to overseas revenue by Q3 2025 [3][10]. - Xiaomi plans to expand its Mi Home store count to over 1,000 by 2026 and increase the contribution of large home appliances to its revenue [10]. Smart EV Segment - Xiaomi targets 550,000 unit deliveries for its smart EVs in 2026, up from over 410,000 in 2025, driven by increased manufacturing capacity and new model launches [9][11]. - The company focuses on the premium auto segment, which captures a significant profit pool, and plans to export EVs to Europe starting in 2027 [11][12]. R&D Investments - AI accounts for approximately 25% of Xiaomi's R&D budget, with plans to increase investments while leveraging AI for ecosystem empowerment and internal operations [14]. - Xiaomi has made significant progress in assisted driving technology and aims to release new features in 2026, alongside a commitment to self-developing chips for its smart EVs [14]. Share Buyback - In 2025, Xiaomi repurchased 150 million shares for a total consideration of HK$6.3 billion, indicating confidence in its stock value [14].

Group 1 - The Xiaomi 17 Ultra series camera module has reserved space for the main camera, long-focus OIS motor, zoom motor, and AF focus motor, which may cause noise during vigorous shaking [1] - The reserved space for the motor displacement in the Xiaomi 17 Ultra's Leica 200 million pixel optical zoom structure has increased from 1.5mm in the previous generation to 7mm, resulting in relatively louder sounds [1] - The company reassures users that the noise is not a product defect and does not affect the product's lifespan [1] Group 2 - The company has conducted multiple rounds of 24 rigorous extreme scenario tests on the master zoom ring during product trial and mass production, including dust and liquid ingress, drop tests, high temperature and humidity conditions, and continuous rotation durability tests [2] - Users are encouraged to use the master zoom ring without concern, as the design includes active space to prevent deformation and issues from dust and liquid ingress [2]

Summary of Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Event**: Xiaomi Launch Winter 2025 - **Date**: December 25, 2025 Key Highlights Smartphone Segment - **Launch of 17 Ultra Series**: - Introduced two models: 17 Ultra and 17 Ultra by Leica - Prices increased by Rmb500-700 compared to the previous generation, now priced at Rmb7,000-8,500 [1] - Continued premiumization strategy with a record high sales mix of 80%+ for the 17 Pro & Pro Max models [1] - **Camera Technology**: - 17 Ultra features a 3-camera module with: 1. A new 1-inch main sensor OmniVision 1050L for improved dynamic range and noise reduction 2. A 200MP periscope telephoto camera with Leica APO optical certification 3. A Leica edition with a mechanical zoom ring for user adjustments [1] - **HyperConnect Features**: - New screen mirroring capabilities for Xiaomi devices on Apple products [1] AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) - **Smart Appliance Factory**: - Mass production began in late October with a capacity of 7 million AC units annually - Factory is highly automated with 100% automation in injection molding and smart logistics coverage of 94% [1] - Aims for long-term cost reduction and improved efficiency [1] AI Development - **Accelerated AI Progress**: - Series of foundational models released, including MiMo-V2-Flash and MiMo-Embodied - Focus on integrating AI with physical products, with plans for an AI-native consumer terminal by 2026 [1] - **Consumer Demand**: - Recent release of Doubao AI Smartphone Assistant indicates strong consumer interest [1] Future Outlook - **Premiumization Strategy**: - Targeting further penetration into the Rmb6,000+ segment in China with an expected 5 million gross user inflows from Apple in 2025 [1] - Plans to accelerate premium shipment penetration in overseas markets [1] - **Upcoming Developments**: - Anticipation of EV Phase II factory mass production and new EV model filings [8] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected revenue CAGRs of 24% and 28% for 2024-2027 [16] - **Investment Rating**: - Rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$53.50, representing a 36.4% upside from the current price of HK$39.22 [20] Risks - **Market Competition**: - Increased competition and potential market share losses in the global smartphone industry [19] - **Operational Challenges**: - Risks related to gross profit margin pressures and execution on premiumization and EV business [19] - **Geopolitical and Economic Factors**: - Potential impacts from geopolitical risks, regulatory uncertainties, and macroeconomic conditions [19] Conclusion - Xiaomi is positioned for significant growth through its premiumization strategy and advancements in AI and AIoT, with a strong focus on integrating technology into consumer products. The company faces challenges from competition and market dynamics but remains optimistic about its future prospects.

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has officially launched the Xiaomi Watch 5, positioning it as an "independent wrist 'smartphone'" with two versions priced at 1999 yuan for the standard version and 2299 yuan for the eSIM version [19]. Group 1: Product Features - The Xiaomi Watch 5 supports independent communication, allowing users to make calls and send/receive messages directly from the watch [12][24]. - It features independent WeChat and Alipay functionalities, enabling users to send voice messages, emojis, quick replies, and make payments [5][23]. - The watch includes an independent app store with over 70 applications available for download [30]. Group 2: Technical Specifications - The watch has a 47mm diameter and features a 1.54" AMOLED screen with a brightness of 1500 nits and a narrow 2.6mm bezel [32]. - It is powered by a dual-chip architecture, including a high-performance Qualcomm W5 processor and a low-power Hengxuan 2800 processor, offering a battery life of up to 6 days and 18 days in power-saving mode [34]. - The watch is equipped with an EMG muscle signal sensor for gesture recognition and supports various fitness training programs with over 80 courses [30][34].

Group 1 - The core product launched is the Xiaomi 17 Ultra, which is positioned as the company's most powerful imaging technology flagship, starting at 6999 yuan [1][13] - Xiaomi has announced a deep strategic partnership with Leica, marking an upgrade in their global imaging strategy and introducing the Xiaomi 17 Ultra by Leica, priced at 7999 yuan [1][89] - The Xiaomi 17 Ultra features a significant imaging upgrade with a one-inch sensor and Leica's 200 million pixel optical zoom, aiming to enhance night photography capabilities [22][25] Group 2 - Xiaomi's 15th anniversary marks the completion of its "people, vehicle, and home ecosystem" strategy, establishing it as a leading technology company with a comprehensive ecosystem [4] - The company has launched its self-developed 3nm flagship chip, marking a milestone in its evolution towards becoming a global hardcore technology company [6] - The new Xiaomi smart home appliance factory in Wuhan has officially commenced production, completing the smart manufacturing layout across its ecosystem [8] Group 3 - The Xiaomi 17 Ultra is the thinnest Ultra model to date, featuring a 2D flat screen design and a thickness of only 8.29mm [14] - It supports IP66, IP68, and IP69 ratings for dust and water resistance, available in four colors: black, white, cold smoke purple, and a new color, starry green [16] - The device includes a new "fireworks mode" specifically designed to capture fireworks effectively, enhancing user experience during festive occasions [30] Group 4 - The Xiaomi 17 Ultra is equipped with the industry's first 200 million pixel continuous optical zoom lens, allowing for versatile composition across various focal lengths [37] - It features a sophisticated lens structure with eight elements in three groups, ensuring high-quality optical performance across different zoom levels [45] - The device has received Leica's APO optical certification, indicating high standards in optical quality [53] Group 5 - The Xiaomi 17 Ultra boasts a 6800mAh battery, the largest capacity in the Ultra series, supporting 90W wired and 50W wireless fast charging [67] - It includes advanced UWB technology, enabling features like digital car key functionality, enhancing connectivity with compatible vehicles [72] - The device supports cross-device interaction with Apple products, allowing seamless control and mirroring between Xiaomi and Apple devices [74] Group 6 - The Xiaomi Watch 5 is introduced as a flagship smartwatch, featuring a 47mm design and a 1.54" AMOLED display with high brightness [206] - It is powered by the Snapdragon W5 chip, offering dual-chip efficiency for high performance and low power consumption [218] - The watch supports over 150 sports modes and includes health monitoring features such as ECG analysis, certified as a Class II medical device [245] Group 7 - The Xiaomi Buds 6 are designed for comfort and sound quality, featuring a new ergonomic design and custom sound units for enhanced audio performance [184][190] - The Xiaomi Smart Home Screen 11 is launched as a central hub for family entertainment and smart home control, featuring an 11-inch display [160] - The new Mijia Central Air Conditioning Pro series is designed for large homes, featuring advanced technology for efficient heating and cooling [133]

Group 1: Macro and Metal Insights - The article discusses how precious metals will respond to the "order reconstruction" under macro changes, focusing on the cyclical and structural resonance [2] - It highlights the evolving supply-demand dynamics in the steel, construction materials, and raw materials industries, emphasizing the transition from capacity clearance to policy breakthroughs [2] - The analysis aims to identify opportunities for bottom reversal in the black metal cycle, providing a comprehensive outlook for investment strategies in the upcoming year [2] Group 2: Financial Strategies for 2026 - The article outlines three key strategies for 2026 investment, including leveraging "cyclical power" in stock indices, adapting to a new normal in interest rates for government bonds, and understanding the driving logic behind the upward shift in precious metal prices [4] - It emphasizes the collaboration of macro financial assets to help investors grasp trends and rhythms in the market [4] Group 3: Economic Predictions - The article presents predictions for 2026, indicating that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will shift global liquidity, leading to a depreciation of the dollar and a revaluation of RMB assets [6] - It notes that domestic growth stabilization policies are effective, contributing to economic recovery and a favorable environment for equity markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6] - The article suggests a comprehensive asset revaluation driven by cycles, policies, and confidence, with technology sectors leading the market [6] Group 4: Gold Investment Strategy - The article discusses the importance of recognizing both the monetary and commodity aspects of gold, emphasizing the need to consider purchasing power in different market narratives [8] - It explores the long-term supply-demand dynamics that will influence gold prices, advocating for a focus on physical asset revaluation beyond monetary factors [8]