以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Shiwen Ma Counterpoint 咨询 . Counterpoint Research 是一家专注于科技行业的全球性研究公司，在全球主要的市场有着强大的影响 力。我们致力于为合作伙伴提供准确、及时的市场数据，帮助他们做出明智的决策。 智能手机出货量展望与高端化趋势 AIoT业务强劲增长与海外零售持续扩张 根据最新财报，小米2025年第二季度营收同比增长30.5%。核心智能手机业务在当季总营收中的占 比不足一半，汽车业务与IoT业务分别实现同比三位数和两位数增长，多元化战略支撑品牌韧性生 长。 来源：小米 小米：Q2小米IoT业务营收达387亿元，创历史新高，同比增长44.7%，主要受益于线下直营店拓 展。大型智能家电（例如空调）、平板电脑等多品类出货量实现同比增长。战略层面，小米计划 每年新增1000家直营店，以增强渠道的可控性并提高运营效率。 Q2小米全球智能手机出货量连续八个季度实现同比增长，但平均售价（ASP）同比下滑 2.7%，智能手机营收同比下降2.1%。 随着国内外线下零售网络的持续扩张，小米AIoT业务实现强劲增长，多个产品品类实现 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Xiaomi Group's automotive performance in Q2 is impressive, while the smartphone business adjustments are largely in line with expectations [1] - Xiaomi's Q2 revenue and adjusted net profit were 116 billion and 10.8 billion RMB respectively, meeting market expectations [1] - Automotive revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.4%, a historical high driven by average selling price growth and platform scale effects [1] Group 2 - Smartphone revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year, primarily due to the REDMI A5 launch lowering overseas average selling prices, while domestic average selling prices benefited from an increase in high-end model proportions [1] - Smartphone gross margin declined by 0.9 percentage points to 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to rising storage prices impacting mid-to-low-end models [2] - AIOT revenue grew by 45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5%, slightly down by 2.7 percentage points due to the 618 promotion [2] Group 3 - The company maintained a "buy" rating but adjusted the target price from 67 HKD to 60 HKD based on a 25x P/E for mobile and a 2.2x P/S for automotive business by 2026 [1] - The forecast for automotive revenue in 2026 was slightly adjusted to 182 billion RMB from a previous estimate of 181.7 billion RMB [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered to 483 billion and 605.8 billion RMB respectively, along with adjusted earnings per share estimates for those years [2]

人工智能行业的早期亏损，几乎成为一条难以跨越的必经之路，巨额研发投入与商业化爬坡期的漫长博弈成为了 技术驱动型产业的普遍宿命。然而，亏损表象之下常隐藏着价值跃升的密码。作为冲刺港股IPO的AIoT领军企 业，特斯联的实际经营效益正经历快速优化，其核心业务展现出了强劲的发展动能。 特斯联成立于2015年，目前围绕空间智能聚焦AIoT领域模型、AIoT基础设施，及AIoT智能体三大战略方向。其 中，特斯联的AI产业数智化业务在2024年迎来爆发，收入从6.24亿元猛增162.9%至16.4亿元，成为核心驱动力。 在总客户数上，特斯联从2022年的224家跃升至2024年的342家，在这三年内，特斯联每年新签约客户分别达175 家、193家及194家，实现了稳步增长。截至2024年末，特斯联的智能解决方案已落地全球超160座城市，项目近 万，服务客户超800家，触角延伸至中东、东南亚、澳洲等广阔市场。 客户基础的持续积累，令特斯联迎来了营收规模的爆发。在2022-2024年间，特斯联实现了令人瞩目的营收"三级 跳"：从7.38亿元、10.06亿元一路飙升至2024年的18.43亿元，同比增速高达83.2%。这使其三 ...

高盛发布研报称，小米集团-W(01810)第二季业绩基本符合该行预期。收入同比增长30%，其中人工智 能物联网AIoT表现强劲，同比增长45%，超出该行和市场预测分别2%及8%。电动车销售抵消了智能手 机销量疲软，而调整后净利润同比增长75%，超出该行和市场预测7%至13%。该行保持小米2025至27年 收入预测基本不变，但因研发投资和所得税增加，将经调整净利润预测下调1%至4%。因此目标价由69 港元下调至65港元，评级"买入"。 过去三个月，小米股价表现与指数基本走势一致，年内至今则仍累升54%，该行认为是由于智能手机收 入/毛利率预估被下调，该行自2025年初以来对小米预测一直低于市场;对下半年AIoT销售增长放缓的担 忧，因中国国家补贴计划的增量效益减弱;自7月以来电动车制造产能提升相对缓慢，尽管8月交付量略 有上升;经过过去两年连续超预期并上调周期后，收入/每股盈利预测上调幅度温和。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) business has become the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the latest quarter, with both Morgan Stanley and UBS emphasizing that EV deliveries will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year [1][5][11]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi's Q2 2025 adjusted net profit reached 10.831 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, marking the highest quarterly profit in history [3]. - Total revenue for Q2 reached 115.956 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [15]. - The company's overall gross margin improved to 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The EV business showed a gross margin of 26.4%, significantly up by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profit potential [8]. - AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The smartphone business faced challenges with a gross margin of 11.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting intense market competition [10]. Electric Vehicle Business Insights - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation of the second-phase factory [14]. - The average selling price of EVs increased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [11]. - The strong order intake for the YU7 model is expected to drive EV delivery volumes, which will be a key catalyst for stock price growth in the second half of the year [13]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 62 HKD, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current stock price [1][5]. - The company's diversified business strategy is proving effective, with the rapid development of the EV business opening new growth avenues [17].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the explosive growth of Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) business is effectively compensating for the slowdown in its smartphone business, with the ramp-up of production capacity at the Beijing second factory in the second half of the year expected to be a catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 reached 1159.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [9] - The AIoT business revenue was 387 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, surpassing expectations by 18% [9] - The EV business revenue was 213 billion RMB, more than doubling year-on-year and exceeding estimates by 6% [9] - Smartphone business revenue was 455 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 2%, falling short of expectations by 8% [9] - Internet services revenue was 91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but 5% below expectations [10] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for the company reached 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The EV business gross margin was 26.4%, significantly increasing by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability prospects [6] - The AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The smartphone business gross margin was 11.5%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, due to intense market competition [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EV business is seen as the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the current quarter, with average selling prices increasing by 6.4% to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the delivery volume of EVs will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year, especially following strong orders for the YU7 model [8] - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation at the second factory, which requires stable production capacity by the end of Q4 [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a record high total revenue of RMB 1160 billion in Q2, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 108 billion, up 75.4% year-on-year, showcasing strong profitability and growth potential [1][3][12]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached RMB 1159.6 billion, marking a 30.5% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing the forecast of RMB 1149.4 billion [4]. - Adjusted net profit was RMB 108.3 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 75.4%, exceeding the expected RMB 102.3 billion [5]. - Operating profit stood at RMB 134.4 billion, outperforming the forecast of RMB 104.3 billion [6]. - Gross margin improved to 22.5%, although it slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - R&D expenditure reached RMB 77.6 billion, up 41.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected RMB 71.8 billion [8]. Business Segment Performance Electric Vehicle and AI Segment - Revenue from the electric vehicle and AI segment reached RMB 213 billion, with the automotive business contributing RMB 206 billion, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 233.9% [10][12]. - The number of new car deliveries was 81,302, a 197.7% increase from the previous year [12]. - The gross margin for the automotive segment was 26.4%, significantly up from 15.4% year-on-year, with operating losses narrowing to RMB 3 billion [13]. Smartphone Business - Smartphone revenue was RMB 455 billion, down 2.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) [10][14]. - Despite a slight increase in global shipment volume to 42.4 million units, the gross margin for smartphones fell from 12.1% to 11.5% due to intensified market competition and promotional activities [10][14]. - Xiaomi's high-end smartphone strategy is showing results, with a 27.6% market share in high-end smartphones in mainland China, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [14]. IoT and Home Appliances - The IoT and lifestyle product segment generated RMB 387 billion in revenue, a 44.7% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high [11][15]. - Revenue from smart home appliances grew by 66.2%, with significant sales in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [15]. - The number of active users globally reached 731 million, an 8.2% increase year-on-year, with 989 million connected IoT devices, up 20.3% [15]. R&D and Innovation - R&D investment continued to increase, reaching RMB 78 billion in Q2, with the number of R&D personnel hitting a record high of 22,641 [17]. - The focus on artificial intelligence is evident, with the release of open-source multimodal models and language models, enhancing product competitiveness [17].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to HKD 60 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, anticipating continued rapid growth in the AIoT business in the upcoming quarter [1] Group 1: AIoT Business Performance - The AIoT sales for the next quarter and the full year are projected to be RMB 36.6 billion and RMB 140.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 37% and 35% [1] Group 2: Smartphone Sales and Market Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone sales for the next quarter are estimated at 41 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.5% [1] - The Chinese market has seen an 8% year-on-year increase in sales, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [1] - The total smartphone sales for the year are expected to reach 175 million units, supported by gains in emerging markets and the mid-to-high-end market share in China [1] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - Due to the impact of the 618 promotional activities leading to a decrease in average selling price, along with the expanding contribution from emerging markets offsetting the ongoing high-end strategy, the smartphone gross margin for the second quarter is expected to remain stable at approximately 11.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts Xiaomi Group-W (01810) AIoT business to maintain rapid growth in Q2, predicting sales of 36.6 billion and 140.6 billion RMB for Q2 and the full year, representing year-on-year growth of 37% and 35% respectively [1] - The firm has lowered its earnings estimates for the group by 10.4% for Q2 and 5.5% for the full year, with the target price reduced from 62 HKD to 60 HKD, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Q2 reached 41 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.5%, with sales in the Chinese market boosted by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival, growing by 8% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company expects total smartphone sales for the year to reach 175 million units, benefiting from increased market share in emerging markets and the mid-to-high-end market in China [1] - Due to the impact of the 618 promotional activities leading to a decrease in average selling price, along with the expanding contribution from emerging markets offsetting the ongoing high-end strategy, the smartphone gross margin for Q2 is expected to remain stable at approximately 11.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]

该行预期，小米AIoT业务在次季将保持快速增长，预测次季及全年的AIoT销售额分别为366亿及1406亿 元，按年增长37%和35%。该行将集团次季及全年盈测分别下调10.4%和5.5%，目标价由62港元下调至 60港元，维持"中性"评级。 瑞银发表研究报告指，据统计，小米次季的智能手机销量为4100万部，按年增0.5%，按季升1.5%。当 中，中国市场在补贴及618购物节的带动下，销量按年增长8%。受惠于新兴市场及中国中高阶市场占有 率提升，预期小米全年总销量达1.75亿部。由于618促销活动令均价下跌，加上新兴市场贡献占比扩张 抵销了持续高端化的贡献，预期第二季智能手机毛利率将按季大致持平于11.6%。 ...