Last year was filled with intense movement in the athletic market — from Nike plowing ahead with an ambitious turnaround effort and Adidas seeing major momentum, to Puma fielding sale rumors and Under Armour parting ways with basketball star Steph Curry as the brand embarks on another restructuring. In a year where the Winter Olympics and World Cup take center stage, the wave of change is sure to continue, but which brand will come out on top? Here are the big questions to consider as 2026 commences. Mor ...

来源：环球市场播报 在与Ye的合作关系终止导致股价下跌后，阿迪达斯（Adidas，ETR：ADS）赢得美国第九巡回上诉法院 的裁决，驳回其就Yeezy合作相关风险误导投资者的指控。 ...

Group 1 - The importance of the Chinese market for global sports giants is increasing, as evidenced by the frequency of visits by top executives [1][2] - Adidas CEO Bjoern Gulden expressed confidence in the Chinese market, noting that 95% of products sold in China are "made in China" and that there is a growing trend towards original Chinese designs [1][2] - Nike's Greater China revenue declined by 10% to $1.512 billion (approximately 10.775 billion RMB) for the latest fiscal quarter ending August 31, 2025, while Adidas reported a revenue increase of 11% to €798 million (approximately 6.653 billion RMB) in the same period [2] Group 2 - Nike's Greater China market share is 13.3%, while Adidas holds 13.4%, indicating a competitive landscape where both brands are closely matched [2] - Despite the revenue decline, Nike remains the market leader with a share of 16.2%, followed by Anta at 10.5% and Li Ning at 9.4%, while Adidas has fallen to a 2024 market share of 8.7% [2] - The rise of domestic brands is posing a significant challenge to international players like Nike and Adidas [4][5]

Core Insights - Adidas achieved its highest quarterly revenue ever, reaching 6.63 billion euros in Q3 2025, a 2.8% increase from 6.45 billion euros in the same quarter last year [1][2] - Currency-neutral revenues for the Adidas brand increased by 12% in Q3, driven by strong growth across various markets and product categories [1][2] Revenue and Profit Performance - The operating profit for Q3 improved significantly to 736 million euros, up from 598 million euros in the previous year [2] - The company completed the sale of its remaining Yeezy inventory, meaning Q3 2025 results do not include Yeezy contributions, which were approximately 200 million euros in the prior year [3] Future Guidance - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance for 2025, now expecting currency-neutral revenues to increase by around 9%, up from a previous high-single-digit rate [4] - The expected operating profit for the full year is now around 2.0 billion euros, an increase from the previous guidance of 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion euros [5] - The company anticipates continued double-digit currency-neutral revenue growth for the Adidas brand throughout the year [6]

Core Insights - The global sports footwear and apparel industry is largely defined by the competition between Nike and Adidas, with a historical context of dominance by German, American, and Japanese brands before Nike's rise in the 1980s [1] - In the Chinese market, Nike and Adidas have faced increasing competition from domestic brands like Anta and Li-Ning since 2017, leading to a decline in Adidas's market share [1][10] - Adidas is actively working to regain its position in the Chinese market, showing a notable increase in revenue and market strategies [10][12] Market Dynamics - Nike's market share in China has decreased from 18.1% in 2021 to 16.2% in 2024, while Adidas's share has dropped from 15% to 8.7% in the same period [14] - Anta's market share increased from 9.8% to 10.5%, and Li-Ning's share rose slightly from 9.3% to 9.4% [14] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with domestic brands gaining traction and impacting the pricing power of established international brands [6][22] Financial Performance - Nike's revenue in Greater China fell by 10% to $1.512 billion (approximately 10.775 billion RMB) for the latest fiscal quarter, with a decline in both direct and wholesale channels [4][5] - Adidas reported a 2.2% increase in revenue to €5.952 billion (approximately 49.625 billion RMB) in Q2, with a significant contribution from the Greater China region, which saw an 11% increase [10][11] - The operating profit margin for Adidas in China reached 22.7%, surpassing its margins in Europe and North America [11] Strategic Initiatives - Adidas's CEO, Bjorn Gulden, has been actively engaging with the Chinese market, emphasizing the importance of local production and design [12][14] - Nike is also increasing its investment in China, focusing on enhancing its retail experience and product offerings to regain market share [17][20] - Both companies are facing pressure from the rise of domestic brands, which are improving product quality and competitive pricing [8][22]

Core Insights - The global sports footwear and apparel industry is largely characterized by the competition between Nike and Adidas, with a historical context of dominance by German, American, and Japanese brands before Nike's rise in the 1980s [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Nike surpassed Adidas in North America in 1980, achieving a market share of 50%, while Adidas struggled due to a lag in the sports fashion trend [2]. - Since 2017, domestic brands like Anta and Li-Ning have rapidly gained market share in China, leading to a significant decline in Adidas's position, which fell below Nike, Anta, and Li-Ning by 2024 [3][4]. Performance Metrics - In the Chinese market, Nike's market share decreased from 18.1% in 2021 to 16.2% in 2024, while Adidas's share dropped from 15% to 8.7% during the same period [12]. - As of the latest fiscal quarter, Nike's revenue in Greater China fell by 10% to $1.512 billion (approximately 10.775 billion RMB), with a notable decline in both direct and wholesale channels [7]. Competitive Strategies - Adidas reported a 2.2% increase in revenue to €5.952 billion (approximately 49.625 billion RMB) in Q2, with Greater China being a key growth driver, showing an 11% increase to €798 million (approximately 6.653 billion RMB) [11]. - Adidas's operating profit margin in China reached 22.7%, surpassing that of Europe and North America, indicating a strong performance in the region [11]. Brand Positioning - Domestic brands are increasingly competitive, with claims that they have closed the product gap with Nike, focusing on high-quality products at competitive prices [9]. - Nike is responding to market pressures by enhancing its investment in China, including the transformation of retail spaces into sports experience centers and optimizing product offerings [15][18]. Leadership Changes - Nike appointed Dong Wei as the new chairperson and CEO for Greater China, emphasizing the importance of the Chinese market in its recovery strategy [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Nike and SKIMS aims to penetrate the women's sportswear market, potentially challenging Lululemon's dominance, but it may provide Lululemon with some breathing room due to NikeSKIMS' current focus on North America and elite sports rather than the Asian market [5][6][22]. Group 1: NikeSKIMS Launch - NikeSKIMS will launch its first collection on September 26, featuring 58 items across 7 series, with prices similar to Lululemon's popular products [5][6]. - The initial product design and release strategy appear conservative, focusing on North America, which may limit immediate market impact [19][20]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Nike's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter decreased by 12% year-over-year to $11.1 billion, with a net profit drop of 86% to $211 million [10][12]. - In contrast, Adidas reported a 2.2% increase in net sales for the latest quarter, highlighting competitive pressures on Nike [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Lululemon's revenue grew by 6.5% to $2.525 billion, but net profit declined by 5.6%, indicating challenges in the North American market [22]. - The Chinese market has been a stronghold for Lululemon, with a 25% revenue increase, providing a buffer against competition [22]. Group 4: SKIMS Growth and Strategy - SKIMS has rapidly expanded since its inception in 2019, with a valuation increase from $1.6 billion to $4 billion in 2023, indicating strong market demand [13]. - The brand's unique design philosophy and celebrity backing have allowed it to penetrate various segments, including men's wear and swimwear [12][13]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The collaboration between Nike and SKIMS is seen as an attempt to replicate the success of Adidas' Yeezy line, but challenges remain in achieving similar market penetration and brand integration [25][27]. - NikeSKIMS must establish its unique identity and market presence to differentiate itself from competitors like Lululemon and Alo [24][27].

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. is focusing on inventory streamlining and marketplace reset as part of its turnaround strategy, but there are concerns about the timing of these efforts in relation to the broader growth slowdown [1][3] - In Q4 fiscal 2025, NIKE's revenues fell nearly 12% year-over-year, while inventory levels remained flat, indicating ongoing challenges despite aggressive discounting [1][8] - The company aims to achieve a "healthy and clean" inventory position by the end of the first half of fiscal 2026, which will involve more discounting and continued pressure on digital traffic [2][8] Inventory Management - NIKE is implementing a phased inventory reset, expecting improvements in inventory quality and sell-through rates in regions like North America and EMEA, while Greater China requires deeper discounting and supply cuts [2][3] - Analysts express skepticism about NIKE's reliance on markdowns and value channels, which may dilute the brand and weaken long-term consumer perception [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like adidas and lululemon are also managing inventory challenges, with adidas reporting double-digit declines in inventory levels and lululemon facing rising pressures but maintaining confidence in inventory quality [4][5][6] Financial Performance - NIKE's stock has declined 2.2% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's decline of 6.6% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for NIKE is 41.17X, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.33X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 22.7% year-over-year decline in earnings for fiscal 2025, followed by a projected growth of 55% for fiscal 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "ugly shoes," particularly focusing on Crocs and Birkenstock, highlighting how their unconventional designs have led to significant market success and brand recognition despite initial criticism [5][31]. Group 1: Company Performance - Crocs has outperformed the Dow Jones U.S. Footwear Index for four consecutive years, indicating strong market performance [6]. - Birkenstock has maintained double-digit revenue growth for nine consecutive quarters, showcasing its robust financial health [9]. - In the 2024 fiscal year, Crocs' revenue growth has significantly slowed, while Birkenstock continues to achieve double-digit growth despite having only half the revenue of Crocs, yet its market value exceeds Crocs by over 50% [29]. Group 2: Brand Strategy - Crocs employs a volume-driven strategy, achieving over $2 billion in sales from its Classic Clog model alone in 2024, surpassing the total sales of Adidas' Yeezy line [33]. - The company has adopted a light-asset operational model, outsourcing production to third-party manufacturers and significantly reducing order lead times [34]. - In contrast, Birkenstock focuses on maintaining product scarcity, producing 95% of its products in Germany and controlling distribution to enhance brand value [36]. Group 3: Market Positioning - Birkenstock's average selling price has consistently increased, with a high full-price sales rate of 90%, attracting middle-class consumers and luxury investors alike [41]. - The brand has successfully positioned itself as a luxury item, with its products being sold at significantly higher prices on secondary markets after collaborations with high-end brands [41]. - The article emphasizes that the key to success for these brands lies not in aesthetics but in creating a narrative that resonates with consumers, positioning their products as more than just footwear [44][50].

Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the unexpected success of "ugly shoes," particularly Crocs and Birkenstock, which have gained popularity despite initial criticism, with Crocs outperforming the Dow Jones U.S. Shoe Company Index for four consecutive years [2][18] - Birkenstock has seen continuous double-digit revenue growth for nine consecutive quarters, demonstrating that "ugliness" can translate into commercial success [3][18] - The rise of Birkenstock was significantly boosted by its appearance in the movie "Barbie," leading to a 110% increase in search volume on fashion platform Lyst [6][18] Group 2 - Both Crocs and Birkenstock share a foundation in practicality, with Birkenstock focusing on foot health and comfort, while Crocs emphasized comfort and ease of cleaning [7][9] - Crocs experienced a 300-fold increase in revenue from 2003 to 2006, driven by word-of-mouth among professionals like chefs and doctors [9][18] - The operational strategies of Crocs and Birkenstock differ significantly, with Crocs adopting a high-volume, low-cost model, while Birkenstock maintains a focus on scarcity and high-quality production in Germany [23][24] Group 3 - Crocs has shifted production to third-party manufacturers, allowing for flexibility and rapid response to market demands, but this has also led to a high incidence of counterfeiting [24][11] - In contrast, Birkenstock controls its production closely, with 95% of its products made in Germany, which helps maintain brand integrity and pricing power [24][25] - Birkenstock's average selling price has consistently increased, with a high full-price sell-through rate of 90%, indicating strong brand positioning in the market [28][18] Group 4 - The article emphasizes that the key to success for these brands lies not just in their "ugliness," but in the additional value they provide to consumers, creating a narrative that resonates with their audience [29][32] - Birkenstock's commitment to traditional craftsmanship and European materials enhances its brand value, distinguishing it from mass-produced alternatives [32][33] - The luxury positioning of Birkenstock has allowed it to thrive in a market where scarcity and exclusivity are highly valued, contrasting with Crocs' volume-driven approach [28][18]