Summary of Warner Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Company Overview - Warner Pharmaceuticals is primarily engaged in the integrated production and sales of chemical drugs and raw materials, focusing on digestive, respiratory, and anti-infection products. The company has faced significant impacts from centralized procurement policies, but is gradually moving out of the most negative phase of these impacts, with expectations of a turning point in the second half of 2025 [4][2]. Key Product Insights - The new antidepressant ZG001 targets the domestic market of approximately 95 million depression patients, addressing clinical pain points such as slow onset and low efficacy of existing medications. ZG001 is expected to be particularly effective in treating Major Depressive Disorder with Suicidal Ideation (MDSI) [2][5]. - ZG001 is currently in Phase 2A clinical trials, with data readout expected by the end of 2025 and Phase 2B trials starting in 2026. The drug aims for conditional market approval by 2027 [12][2]. Market Potential - The Chinese market for depression treatment is vast, with a significant number of patients suffering from severe depression and a high proportion exhibiting suicidal tendencies. The potential market for ZG001 is estimated to exceed 10 billion RMB if it successfully eliminates addictive side effects [3][13]. - The existing antidepressant market in China is growing rapidly, with a market size of approximately 700 million USD in 2020 and a double-digit growth rate expected [5]. Competitive Landscape - ZG001 differentiates itself from Johnson & Johnson's esketamine nasal spray by using a metabolite of ketamine, which retains rapid antidepressant effects while avoiding addictive side effects. This characteristic is crucial for acceptance among Chinese clinicians [11][14]. - The anticipated pricing for ZG001 is expected to be lower than that of Johnson & Johnson's product, which is priced around 8,000 USD for a four-week treatment course in overseas markets [13]. Financial Projections - Warner Pharmaceuticals anticipates an operating profit of approximately 200 million RMB for the year, although reported profits may fluctuate due to non-operating factors [2][4]. - The combined peak sales potential for ZG001 in the MDSI and treatment-resistant depression indications is projected to exceed 10 billion RMB, indicating substantial growth potential [16][18]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about ZG001's prospects in both domestic and potential overseas markets, with a total market capitalization growth potential exceeding 20 billion RMB if successful [17][18]. - The focus remains on the domestic market for the time being, given the current stage of clinical trials for ZG001 [17]. Conclusion - Warner Pharmaceuticals is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for effective depression treatments in China, with ZG001 representing a significant opportunity to address unmet clinical needs while navigating the challenges posed by existing procurement policies and market competition [2][4][14].

Summary of Warner Pharmaceuticals Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - Warner Pharmaceuticals holds a 38.1% stake in Zhigen Pharmaceuticals, with its innovative drug ZG001 identified as a potential growth driver [2][4] - The global antidepressant market is projected to grow from $4.8 billion in 2022 to $9 billion by 2030, with the Chinese market expected to reach approximately 6.5 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 5.5% [2][4] Key Points and Arguments - Despite a slight revenue decline in 2024 due to centralized procurement impacts, the main revenue sources remain in the digestive, respiratory, and anti-infection sectors [2][4] - Warner Pharmaceuticals is actively developing innovative drugs, with eight first-class innovative drugs currently in research, including ZG001 [2][4] - ZG001 is seen as a potential alternative to esketamine, which has been approved for treatment-resistant depression since 2019 and is expected to reach global sales of $1.077 billion in 2024, with a peak sales estimate of $5 billion [3][11] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.57 billion, 1.79 billion, and 2 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of approximately 11% to 12% [3][11] - ZG001 is currently undergoing a Phase 2A clinical trial, with completion expected in 2025, and is anticipated to significantly improve treatment rates for depression in China [3][10] Challenges and Advantages of Current Antidepressant Treatments - Existing first-line antidepressant treatments (e.g., SSRIs and SNRIs) have various side effects and a slow onset of action, requiring 2 to 4 weeks to see effects, with an efficacy rate of only 67% [5] - Esketamine offers rapid onset of action, showing symptom improvement within four hours, but carries risks of addiction and side effects [5][6] - Esketamine's sales have been increasing, surpassing $1 billion in 2024, with global sales reaching $734 million in the first half of 2025 [7] Clinical Application and Safety of Esketamine - Common adverse reactions to esketamine include elevated blood pressure, necessitating monitoring during administration [7] - Despite the risks, its significant efficacy leads to recommendations for treatment-resistant depression patients [7] Mechanism of Action for Esketamine and HNK - Research indicates that the antidepressant effects of ketamine may primarily be mediated by its metabolite HNK, which avoids addiction risks associated with ketamine itself [8][9] Market Potential for ZG001 - ZG001 is structurally similar to HNK and is expected to outperform traditional antidepressants, with a projected peak sales of 3.56 billion yuan in China by 2032 [10] - The treatment rate for depression in China is currently low, with only 4.7% of patients receiving treatment, indicating a significant market opportunity for ZG001 [10] Recommendation for Warner Pharmaceuticals - Warner Pharmaceuticals is recommended for investment due to the promising efficacy and safety profile of ZG001, which is expected to replace esketamine in the market [11]

Fixed Income - The new policy for "Science and Technology Innovation Bonds" (科创债) has led to banks, particularly state-owned banks, being the primary issuers, with a total issuance of 115 billion yuan from May 6 to May 16, 2025 [7][8] - The issuers of these bonds are predominantly high-rated central and state-owned enterprises, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for 83.39% of the total issuance [8] - The new policy has relaxed restrictions on the use of funds raised through these bonds, allowing for a broader range of applications, including loans for technology innovation [9] New Consumption - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [11] - The growth in retail sales was driven by essential consumption, with food and daily necessities showing robust growth, while discretionary spending on jewelry and communication devices also increased significantly [12] - Furniture and home appliances saw particularly strong growth, with retail sales increasing by 26.9% and 38.8% respectively [12] Metals and New Materials - The profitability of the gold and copper-aluminum sectors has significantly increased due to rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector has seen a substantial decline in profitability [14] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 147.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.73% and 2.61% respectively [14] - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [15][19] Pharmaceuticals - Sanofi's licensing agreement for PD-1/VEGF dual antibody rights outside of China with Pfizer is valued at 1.25 billion USD upfront, with potential milestone payments of up to 4.8 billion USD [26][27] - The agreement is expected to enhance the company's valuation significantly, with a target market value of 59.5 billion yuan (approximately 64.5 billion HKD) [4][29] - Warner Pharmaceuticals is focusing on innovative antidepressants and the replacement of endangered medicinal materials, with a new antidepressant ZG001 showing promise as a fast-acting, non-addictive option [31][34]

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 刘闯 SAC：S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 李强 SAC：S1350524040001 liqiang01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 抑郁/癫痫新药需求突出，建议关注华纳药厂/海南海药 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（25/4/21-25/4/25） 投资要点： 投资观点及建议关注标的：展望 2025 年，我们认为医药板块已经具备多方面的积极发展因素， 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 本周医药市场表现分析：4 月 21 日至 4 月 25 日，医药指数上涨 1.16%，相对沪深 300 指数 超额收益为 0.77%。本周创新药板块依旧活跃，舒泰神、迪哲医药、荣昌生物等表现较好， 一季报陆续来临，Q1 业绩关注度逐步提升，甘李药业、何氏眼科、海泰新光等 Q1 业绩较好， 股价表现亮眼。建议关注：1）创新药出海不受关税影响，继续重点推荐 A 股信立泰、科伦药 业、热景生物、一品红、科兴制药、恒瑞医药； ...