机械板块四季度及 10 月投资策略 20251009 摘要 机械研究框架转向泛科技和泛出口，人形机器人和出口链成关注热点。 飞鸽第三代机器人发布，特斯拉计划 11 月发布第三代机器人，国内手 术机器人材料发布及招股书预计四季度公布，共同推动人形机器人板块 发展。 核聚变技术取得进展，上海华都 4 号启动，合肥等离子所 BEST 底座浇 筑完成。商业化虽远，但成功后前景客观，传统与新兴龙头标的均值得 关注，交易逻辑与人形机器人相似。 锂电设备领域出现新的固态技术，可能引发行情。但龙头公司估值已达 明年 40 倍，需关注固态实际放量。前期交易基于宁德招标、业绩修复 及固态预期提升，持续性待观察。 预计中美新一轮谈判可能涉及关税调整，影响特朗普中期选举。美国制 造业修复、减税投资及降息亦值得关注。出口方向业绩较好、估值较低， 赔率较高。 苹果产业链四季度将逐渐交易，关注 iPhone 18 的钛合金和折叠屏变化。 相关龙头公司或有进展，可进行交易。天工国际横跨人形机器人、果链 等方向，是港股中值得关注的标的。 Q&A 今年机械行业的整体表现如何？四季度的投资策略是什么？ 今年机械行业整体表现主要以估值扩张为主，传统 ...

Summary of Apple, Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Apple, Inc. (AAPL.O) - **Industry**: IT Hardware - **Market Cap**: $3,806,684 million - **Current Stock Price**: $255.45 (as of October 1, 2025) - **Price Target**: Increased from $240.00 to $298.00, with a bull case of $376.00 Key Points and Arguments iPhone 17 Cycle Performance - The iPhone 17 cycle is performing stronger than initially expected, leading to a revision of FY26 iPhone revenue estimates by 4% due to anticipated increases in units sold and average selling prices (ASPs) [3][8] - The company expects to ship 243 million iPhones in FY26, representing a 3% year-over-year increase [3][23] - Early demand signals indicate a potential build increase for iPhone 17 models, particularly for the Pro and Pro Max versions, with supply chain checks suggesting builds could rise to the low 90 million range [3][13] Future Projections - The company anticipates that iPhone revenue growth will continue into FY27, driven by an aging installed base and the introduction of the first foldable iPhone [3][8] - FY27 EPS estimates have been raised by 6% to $9.30, with a target multiple of 32x [3][24] - The bull case valuation assumes over 270 million iPhone shipments and EPS of $10.16, achievable if foldable models and AI features drive demand [8][32] Market Dynamics - The market has already priced in the positive outlook for the iPhone 17 cycle, with AAPL shares rising 7% since the launch [19] - The company notes that iPhone upgrade rates have reached an all-time high of 51%, indicating strong consumer interest [14][22] - The potential for new features from Apple Intelligence could further accelerate upgrade cycles, especially as only 30% of the installed base will be eligible for these features by the end of the iPhone 17 cycle [22][32] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include the sustainability of early demand, potential geopolitical tensions, and the impact of consumer spending on upgrade rates [21][58] - The company is monitoring the effects of government stimulus in China and the approval of new technologies that could influence sales [21] Financial Metrics - FY26 total revenue is projected at $451,123 million, with a year-over-year growth of 8.7% [28] - iPhone revenue is expected to reach $230,295 million in FY26, reflecting a 4.2% increase [28] - Gross margins are projected to stabilize around 46.6% in FY26 [28] Additional Insights - The iPhone 17 family is expected to account for 69% of FY26 iPhone shipments, indicating a strong product mix [25] - The company is also focusing on the integration of AI features and new product launches in various sectors, which could enhance long-term growth prospects [49][58] Conclusion - Apple, Inc. is positioned for a strong performance in the upcoming fiscal years, driven by robust demand for the iPhone 17 and anticipated innovations in the product lineup. The revised price target reflects confidence in sustained growth, although potential risks must be monitored closely.

摩根士丹利在其最新报告中描绘了一幅对苹果公司更为乐观的图景。尽管当前iPhone 17周期的开局强于预期，但一个由存量设备升级和重大产品 创新驱动的、可能更强大的iPhone 18周期已在酝酿之中。 基于此，摩根士丹利将苹果的目标价从240美元大幅上调至298美元。不过分析师也提醒，近期的股价上涨可能已经消化了市场对iPhone 17的乐观 预期，未来股价若要持续跑赢大盘，将需要盈利预测的进一步上调。 该行认为，真正驱动苹果长期增长的关键在于下一个产品周期。报告预测，届时将有约10亿部老旧iPhone进入升级窗口，叠加苹果首款折叠屏手 机这一"多年来最具创新性的新设备"的推出，预计将共同推动苹果的营收在2027财年实现持续增长。 追风交易台消息，大摩分析师Erik W Woodring在报告中认为，iPhone 17的早期需求信号，特别是基础型号和Pro型号的强劲表现，已促使其上调 对苹果2026财年的财务预测。供应链的调查显示，由于需求旺盛，苹果即将增加iPhone 17的生产订单。 iPhone 17开局强于预期 摩根士丹利指出，iPhone 17周期的初步需求势头比他们预想的要强劲得多。这一判断基于两个 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts have raised their target price for the stock to $298, with potential for it to reach $376 if foldable iPhones and AI drive significant upgrades in the upcoming launch cycle [1] Group 1 - The target price has been increased to $298 [1] - There is potential for the stock to reach $376 under favorable conditions [1] - The anticipated catalysts for this growth include foldable iPhones and advancements in AI [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant rally, with major indices reaching record highs driven by enthusiasm for AI innovation and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][8] - The S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 6,726.55, the Nasdaq Composite advanced to 22,831.05, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 46,547.37, all marking new records [2] Economic Context - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, including unemployment benefits and the monthly jobs report, but the market remains resilient, anticipating limited economic impact [4][5] - There is a 99% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, which is bolstering market confidence [5] Sector Performance - Technology and AI-related stocks are leading the market surge, with Nvidia's stock trading near $187 and achieving a market valuation of $4.5 trillion, driven by strong AI growth [6] - Tesla's shares rose nearly 2% to $468.52 after reporting a 7.4% increase in global vehicle deliveries, although the stock later retreated by about 3% [6] Corporate Developments - Nvidia's strong performance is supported by partnerships with South Korean chipmakers for AI infrastructure, while Meta Platforms' acquisition of AI chip startup Rivos may pose competitive pressure [6] - Apple received a price target increase to $298 from Morgan Stanley, driven by a successful iPhone 17 launch and anticipation for future models [10] - Microsoft continues to thrive with its cloud services and AI initiatives, maintaining a strong buy recommendation despite market pricing [10] - Alphabet's stock price target was raised to $270, reflecting its position as an "AI Winner" amid growing adoption of generative AI [10] - Amazon's AWS remains a leader in cloud computing, although competition is intensifying from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [10]

And folks, we have breaking news on Tesla, too. Jenny Horn, host of NextGen Investing is with us. And we're seeing Tesla with an up arrow.>> We are. So, I mean, Tesla coming in with with its delivery numbers, Nicole, and they were far better than had been expected. So, right now, we're seeing deliveries that that just totaled roughly 49,000.That was 497,000, excuse me. That was better better far better than what had been expected by the street. I saw consensus at around 447,000 but 497,000 would mark about ...

Vi e w point | 28 Sep 2025 18:23:29 ET │ 12 pages China Technology & Communications Post 2Q25 Asia Marketing Feedback CITI'S TAKE We met with over 40institutional investors inHK/SG in the pasttwoweeks. Our last stock pitch suggested over 110% return since June marketing feedback. Heading into 4Q25, we expect (i) AI chain sentiment to rebound on several catalysts in October post Golden Week afterrecent profit-taking, (ii) Apple chain profit taking may be ahead after next build plan update and 1Q26 low season ...

Summary of Han's Laser Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Han's Laser Technology (002008.SZ) - **Industry**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and IT Equipment Key Points IT Business Outlook - **Revenue Projections**: IT revenue, primarily from Apple, is expected to reach Rmb2.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 17% year-over-year (YoY) [1] - **Future Growth**: Anticipated revenue growth of at least 30% YoY in 2026 due to the launch of iPhone 18, Apple's first foldable phone [1] - **Long-term Optimism**: Continued optimism into 2027 with potential new iPhone launches, including an all-glass model to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the iPhone [1] PCB Business Outlook - **Revenue Growth**: PCB revenue is projected to reach at least Rmb5.0 billion in 2025, with further growth to Rmb7.0 billion to Rmb10.0 billion in 2026 [1][3] - **Key Customers**: Victory Giant Technology (VGT) is expected to contribute Rmb1.0 billion to Rmb1.5 billion in revenue in 2025, up from Rmb300 million to Rmb400 million in 2024 [3] - **Emerging Customers**: Other Chinese PCB makers like Founder and Kinwong are expected to become customers for AI PCB equipment [3] Equipment Demand Insights - **Current Demand**: No notifications received from Apple supply chain companies regarding increased equipment demand for iPhone 17, but potential demand revision could occur in Q4 2025, estimated at Rmb100 million to Rmb200 million [2] - **Future Equipment Design**: Equipment design for iPhone 18 is expected to start in Q4 2025, with final demand expected to be confirmed by March 2026 [2] - **Drivers of Demand**: Increased demand for laser welding equipment driven by VC heat dissipation, camera upgrades, and the adoption of ultra-thin glass [2] Competitive Landscape - **Product Development**: Han's Laser is developing ultrafast laser drilling equipment to improve PCB drilling efficiency, targeting smaller vias compared to competitors [3] - **Market Position**: Despite competition from Mitsubishi Electric, Han's Laser aims to enhance its market position through improved product offerings [3] Financial Metrics - **Current Share Price**: Rmb42.590 as of September 24, 2025 [5] - **Target Price**: Rmb45.000, indicating an expected share price return of 5.7% and a total return of 6.1% [5][15] Risks - **Downside Risks**: Key risks include fewer-than-expected Apple orders, increased competition affecting margins, potential weakening of auto sales impacting high-power laser demand, and the emergence of substitute technologies [16] Conclusion - **Investment Outlook**: The conference call reinforced a bullish outlook for Han's Laser Technology, driven by strong anticipated growth in both IT and PCB segments, alongside strategic product developments and customer expansions [1][3][15]

你很难想象这是苹果做出来的手机！为了第一时间体验到iPhone Air，我专程飞到香港首发取货，同时 也提了一台港版的17 Pro。今天就来聊聊iPhone 17 Pro的首发感受、和iPhone 16 Pro的对比、iPhone 18的 预测。 ...

Group 1: Apple iPhone 17 Launch - The tech sector reached a record high with the official sale of Apple's iPhone 17 lineup, resulting in a 2.5% increase in Apple stock [1][6] - There is significant consumer interest, with long lines observed for the new iPhone models, particularly the Pro versions, which are more expensive and contribute more to Apple's revenue growth [2][3] - JP Morgan raised its price target for Apple based on early demand signals indicating stronger performance compared to the previous year's iPhone 16 [4] Group 2: Future Expectations and Market Sentiment - Apple is expected to sell 10% more phones next year, driven by the new models and upcoming redesigns, indicating optimism in the market [4] - Tim Cook expressed enthusiasm about the demand for the new iPhone lineups during an interview, reinforcing positive sentiment around the product launch [5] - Apple's earnings report showed a 12% increase in earnings and a 10% increase in revenue, highlighting strong financial performance [15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and AI Integration - There is ongoing discussion about the integration of AI in Apple's products, with Tim Cook mentioning AI features in the new iPhones, although skepticism remains about its impact [10][11] - The excitement around the iPhone 17 is seen as a shift from previous concerns about a lack of innovation, with expectations for future models to include more advanced AI capabilities [19][20] - The overall sentiment is that while Apple remains a hardware company, the recent product launches and future innovations are generating renewed interest and excitement among consumers and investors [16][18]