机器人业务放量在即，零部件及整机卡位国内外头部客户。在具身智能领域，公司已进入北美及国内头 部机器人供应链，批量交付元灵犀机器人的同时，在零部件端，关节模组、灵巧手、结构件实现批量交 付。近日亦取得越疆机器人10000台四足机器狗整机组装订单，并成为其主要部件供应商，涵盖关节电 机、结构件及其他核心部件的开发、量产与供应，形成"研发-制造-供应"闭环。公司预计25年人形机器 人出货3000台、四足机器狗10000台以上，预计26年出货规模将进一步翻倍，成为全球最大的具身智能 硬件制造平台之一。 消费电子新品逻辑演绎，受益北美大客户量价齐升。此前部分投资者认为苹果AI进展缓慢进而引l发对 苹果销量担优，但iphone17系列市场需求强劲，苹果业绩会指引iphone营收有望在下季度（9-12月）实 现双位数增长，且中国市场将恢复增长，公司有望同步受益。硬件端后续耳机、手机、眼镜、智能家居 等多品类硬件创新周期开启，AI落地进程加速叠加硬件端多品类创新打造全场景生态，蓝思作为其外 观件核心供应商有望深度受益。尤其在折叠屏产品中，公司将成为大客户明年折叠机的三项关键产品供 应商，包括UTG（超薄柔性玻璃）盖板、PET ...

⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 50/69/89 亿元（原 25-27 年归母净利润预 测分别为 53/70/89 亿元，小幅下调其他收益，上调资产减值等），根据可比公司 26 年 31 倍 PE，对应目标价为 40.61 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 机器人业务放量在即，平台型龙头打开成 长天花板 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 大客户手机出货量不及预期、公司新产品良率爬坡不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 54,491 | 69,897 | 93,978 | 117,906 | 143,201 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.7% | 28.3% | 34.5% | 25.5% | 21.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,277 | 3,871 | 5,389 | 7,522 | 9,704 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.5% | 18.1% | 39.2% | 39.6% | 29. ...

Core Viewpoint - The shortage of BT substrates is causing a continuous tightening of BGA packaging capacity, leading to delivery cycles extending beyond 20 weeks, while COB packaging is gaining preference due to its cost-effectiveness and stable raw material supply [1] Group 1: BT Substrate Overview - BT resin substrates are essential for BGA packaging, providing mechanical reliability under extreme temperature cycles due to their low thermal expansion coefficient [2] - BGA packaging typically uses multi-layer stacked structures (6-8 layers) for high-reliability chip support [2] Group 2: Causes of BT Substrate Shortage - The surge in AI server demand is straining BT material capacity, with TSMC's advanced packaging expansion prioritizing ABF substrate orders, which share raw materials with BT substrates [3] - Apple has mandated its memory chip suppliers to use BT substrates for the iPhone 17 series, increasing future demand for this packaging solution [3] - Supply-side issues include extended delivery times for key materials like copper foil substrates and high-grade fiberglass cloth, with delays of 4-5 months reported [3] - Geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties have led to stockpiling by manufacturers, amplifying short-term demand [3] Group 3: Domestic Replacement Progress - Domestic BT substrate manufacturers are still in a technology ramp-up phase, relying on imported materials and equipment, with a highly concentrated supply of low CTE fiberglass cloth [4] - Japanese companies dominate the high-end low CTE fiberglass market, holding 92% market share, while domestic alternatives face significant technical challenges [4] Group 4: Future Supply Outlook - A turning point in BT substrate supply is expected in the second half of 2026, driven by capacity ramp-up and technological advancements in East Asia [5] - Key milestones include the certification of Taiwanese fiberglass suppliers and the ramp-up of domestic production, which will significantly increase supply [5] - By Q3 2026, the shortage rate is projected to narrow to 5%-7%, although challenges remain in high-end sectors due to certification processes and non-linear growth in AI server demand [6]