Core Insights - The PCB industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities driven by the surge in AI server demand and the unexpected recovery in traditional sectors [1][2] Demand Drivers - The resilience in PCB demand is attributed to a dual-driven model of emerging sectors' explosion and the recovery of traditional fields [2] - AI technology breakthroughs are pushing the industry into a "golden phase" of simultaneous volume and price increases [2] - AI server PCB demand is expected to significantly increase, with Nvidia's GB 200/300 NVL72 shipments projected to meet expectations by 2025, and Blackwell & Rubin series shipments potentially exceeding 50,000-60,000 units by 2026 [2][3] - The technical requirements for AI servers far exceed those of traditional servers, with high-layer count (HLC) and high-density interconnect (HDI) boards becoming core demands [2] Market Dynamics - UBS estimates that the single-unit PCB content for AI servers is 5-10 times higher than that of traditional servers, significantly driving the server PCB market [3] - The domestic AI chip and cluster solutions are accelerating the formation of a local AI server supply chain, benefiting companies like Shenzhen Circuits and Huitian Technology [3] - Traditional PCB demand is also recovering, contributing 70-80% of revenue from sectors like smartphones, PCs, and general servers [3] Sector-Specific Insights - The smartphone sector is benefiting from the unexpected shipment volume of the iPhone 17 series, with global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025/26 raised to 1.26 billion and 1.27 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3% and 1% respectively [3] - The PC market is seeing a recovery driven by the replacement cycle following the end of Windows 10 support, with global PC shipment growth expected to exceed 4% in 2025/26 [3] - General server demand is notably resilient, with global shipments projected to grow by 8.6% and 8.0% in 2025/26, and hyperscale data center shipments expected to grow by 17.8% and 9.8% [4] Industry Chain Analysis - The PCB industry chain shows a concentration of value in upstream segments, with substrates and copper-clad laminates (CCL) being the most certain segments benefiting from AI demand [5] - BT substrates are experiencing high utilization rates due to the recovery in storage chip demand and supply shortages of key materials [7] - The price of BT substrates has increased by 30% this year, with further increases expected by year-end [8] - The high-speed CCL segment is seeing explosive demand driven by AI server upgrades, with prices expected to rise by 10-15% in the second half of 2025 [9] Company Profiles - Shenzhen Circuits: Covers major North American clients [10] - Huitian Technology: Main PCB supplier for Google and optical modules [11] - Shenghong Technology: Strong position with Nvidia and aggressive capacity expansion [12] - Sany Electronics: Significant orders from AWS leading to strong Q3 performance [13] - Sany Technology: Strong earnings certainty due to CCL price increases [14] - Dazhu CNC: Q3 performance exceeded expectations, reflecting PCB segment dynamics [15] - Ding Tai High-Tech: Facing process challenges due to high difficulty in Q fabric [16] - Zhongcai Technology: Expected to benefit from sustained PCB demand in the coming year [17] Conclusion - The Chinese PCB industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by AI, with upstream segments like substrates and CCL, along with leading companies in the AI server supply chain, being the primary beneficiaries [18]

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities driven by the surge in AI server demand and the unexpected recovery in traditional sectors, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle for the industry [1][2]. Demand Drivers - The resilience in PCB demand is attributed to a dual-driven pattern of "emerging sectors' explosion + traditional sectors' recovery" [2]. - The demand for PCBs in AI servers has transitioned from a conceptual phase to actual performance, significantly increasing the industry's growth potential [3]. - AI servers require higher PCB content, with UBS estimating that the single-unit PCB content for AI servers is 5-10 times higher than traditional servers, leading to a rapid expansion of the server PCB market [4]. Traditional Sector Recovery - Traditional PCB demand is also recovering, contributing 70-80% of revenue for PCB companies, providing a solid foundation for the industry [5]. - The smartphone sector is benefiting from the unexpected shipment volumes of the iPhone 17 series, with global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2025/26 adjusted to 1.26 billion and 1.27 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3% and 1% respectively [5]. - The PC market is seeing a resurgence due to the replacement cycle following the end of Windows 10 support, with global PC shipment growth expected to exceed 4% in 2025/26 [5]. PCB Industry Chain Analysis - The PCB industry chain exhibits a concentrated value distribution, with substrates and copper-clad laminates (CCL) being the core raw materials benefiting from the AI demand explosion [7]. - BT substrates are experiencing high utilization rates due to the recovery in storage chip demand and supply shortages of key materials [8]. - The ABF substrate market is undergoing a domestic production acceleration, with potential for Chinese PCB companies to capture market share through cost advantages and localized services [9]. CCL Market Dynamics - The CCL market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance in high-end products, with high-speed CCL being the most explosive segment due to AI server upgrades [10]. - UBS forecasts a 10-15% increase in high-speed CCL average selling prices (ASP) by the second half of 2025, with tight supply conditions expected to persist into 2026 [11]. Company Performance - Companies like Huadian and Shennan Circuits are well-positioned with full coverage of North American clients and strong relationships with major AI customers [12][13]. - Shenghong Technology is expanding aggressively and maintaining strong customer acquisition trends, while companies like Sinyi Electronics are benefiting from increased orders from AWS [13][14]. - The PCB sector's valuation reflects the industry's upward cycle expectations, with the PCB index rising 70% year-to-date, and a projected net profit CAGR of 42% from 2024 to 2027, indicating reasonable current valuations [17]. Conclusion - The Chinese PCB industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by AI, with upstream segments like substrates and CCL, along with leading companies in the AI server supply chain, being the primary beneficiaries [17].

Core Viewpoint - Market concerns about AI capital expenditure (capex) potentially peaking in 2026 are prevalent, but JPMorgan presents a counterargument based on four key points: no signs of overheating in generative AI, continuous entry of new investment players, significant expansion of AI application scenarios, and the potential demand release in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: AI Capital Expenditure Insights - JPMorgan predicts that AI capex growth will reach at least 20% in 2026, with further growth expected in 2027 if the penetration rate of reasoning models continues to rise [3]. - The top four cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to maintain strong capital expenditure supported by robust operating cash flow, with a projected cumulative EBITDA and operating cash flow CAGR of 23% from 2022 to 2026 [5][4]. - The capital expenditure of the top four CSPs is anticipated to increase from $150 billion in 2022 to a projected $398 billion in 2026, with a consensus forecast showing a cumulative free cash flow CAGR of 16% [7]. Group 2: New Investment Players and Market Dynamics - New players, including private AI labs and sovereign funds, are entering the AI capex space, enhancing investment capabilities despite concerns about spending stability [9]. - The Chinese CSP market is just beginning its AI investment journey, with significant spending intentions from companies like ByteDance and Alibaba, although supply constraints from GPU availability pose challenges [10]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Growth Projections - The Google TPU supply chain is expected to experience the fastest growth in 2026, driven by strong internal demand and recovery from previous supply issues [11]. - NVIDIA's supply chain is projected to maintain robust growth in 2026, with no significant delays anticipated in production schedules [13]. - The ODM sector is showing strong performance, particularly with companies like Hon Hai, which have seen significant stock price increases due to strong demand for NVIDIA products [15]. Group 4: Pricing Trends and Earnings Adjustments - Discussions of price increases across various non-AI sectors are emerging, which could drive the next round of earnings per share (EPS) adjustments [16]. - The Asian technology sector is experiencing a pause in earnings revisions, but future price increases and sustained AI demand are expected to be key drivers for further EPS adjustments [17][18].

Core Viewpoints - Concerns about AI capital expenditure (capex) peaking in 2026 are overstated, with strong growth certainty expected in 2026-2027 [1][2] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) can sustain capital expenditure through increasing operating cash flow, with no signs of overheating in generative AI [2][4] - New investment players, including private AI labs and sovereign funds, are entering the market, further driving AI investment [2][9] AI Capital Expenditure Growth - Morgan Stanley predicts at least 20% growth in AI capex for 2026, with potential for further increases in 2027 if enterprise-level AI adoption continues [2][8] - The top four CSPs (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) are expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% in EBITDA and operating cash flow from 2022 to 2026 [6][7] - Capital expenditure for these CSPs is projected to rise from $150 billion in 2022 to $398 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 16% in free cash flow [7][8] Investment Opportunities - The AI supply chain growth ranking for 2026 shows Google TPU leading, followed by NVIDIA, AMD, and AWS [3][11] - Non-AI sectors are experiencing price increases, which could drive the next round of earnings per share (EPS) adjustments in the tech sector [17] - Chinese CSPs are just beginning their AI investments, with significant potential for growth despite supply constraints [10][19] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for NVIDIA is expected to maintain strong growth in 2026, with no significant delays in production plans [13][14] - ODMs are experiencing a catch-up trend, with companies like Hon Hai (Foxconn) showing strong stock performance [15] - The Asian AI supply chain is benefiting from increased demand for Google TPU and other components, with PCB and CCL suppliers positioned to gain [11][12] Valuation and Earnings Adjustments - The recent stagnation in earnings adjustments for Asian tech stocks is attributed to currency fluctuations and preemptive demand ahead of tariffs [18][19] - Future price increases and sustained AI demand are expected to drive further EPS adjustments [18][21] - The valuation of Asian tech stocks remains reasonable, with no bubble expectations in most large tech segments [18][21]

Core Viewpoint - The shortage of BT substrates is causing a continuous tightening of BGA packaging capacity, leading to delivery cycles extending beyond 20 weeks, while COB packaging is gaining preference due to its cost-effectiveness and stable raw material supply [1] Group 1: BT Substrate Overview - BT resin substrates are essential for BGA packaging, providing mechanical reliability under extreme temperature cycles due to their low thermal expansion coefficient [2] - BGA packaging typically uses multi-layer stacked structures (6-8 layers) for high-reliability chip support [2] Group 2: Causes of BT Substrate Shortage - The surge in AI server demand is straining BT material capacity, with TSMC's advanced packaging expansion prioritizing ABF substrate orders, which share raw materials with BT substrates [3] - Apple has mandated its memory chip suppliers to use BT substrates for the iPhone 17 series, increasing future demand for this packaging solution [3] - Supply-side issues include extended delivery times for key materials like copper foil substrates and high-grade fiberglass cloth, with delays of 4-5 months reported [3] - Geopolitical factors and tariff uncertainties have led to stockpiling by manufacturers, amplifying short-term demand [3] Group 3: Domestic Replacement Progress - Domestic BT substrate manufacturers are still in a technology ramp-up phase, relying on imported materials and equipment, with a highly concentrated supply of low CTE fiberglass cloth [4] - Japanese companies dominate the high-end low CTE fiberglass market, holding 92% market share, while domestic alternatives face significant technical challenges [4] Group 4: Future Supply Outlook - A turning point in BT substrate supply is expected in the second half of 2026, driven by capacity ramp-up and technological advancements in East Asia [5] - Key milestones include the certification of Taiwanese fiberglass suppliers and the ramp-up of domestic production, which will significantly increase supply [5] - By Q3 2026, the shortage rate is projected to narrow to 5%-7%, although challenges remain in high-end sectors due to certification processes and non-linear growth in AI server demand [6]

Market Performance - The main board led the gains with notable increases in stocks such as Yuyin Co. (+10.08%), Chaoxun Communication (+7.09%), and Yongding Co. (+7.03%) [1] - The ChiNext board saw significant growth with New Guodu (+16.30%) and Xiechuang Data (+11.81%) leading the charge [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was also up, with Dekeli (+7.58%) and Qingyue Technology (+7.19%) showing strong performance [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices (+1.94%) and SW Communication Terminals and Accessories (+1.20%) [1] Domestic News - Aibang Semiconductor Network announced a total investment of 1.2 billion, with Hanjin Technology's silicon carbide packaging project reaching completion, capable of producing 300,000 silicon carbide power modules and 50 million silicon carbide power devices annually [1] - TSMC reported a surge in demand for CoWoS chip manufacturing materials, leading to shortages in the memory market, with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical announcing delays in shipments of materials for BT substrates [1] - Changfei Advanced's Wuhan base achieved mass production, with the first 6-inch silicon carbide wafer successfully produced, expected to reach an annual production capacity of 360,000 silicon carbide chips [1] - Anhui Huaxin Micro-Nano Integrated Circuit Co. announced the successful production of the first batch of products from its 8-inch wafer production line, which will have a monthly production capacity of 30,000 wafers [1] Company Announcements - Huajin Technology announced a 2024 annual equity distribution plan, distributing 9 yuan for every 10 shares [3] - Jingyan Technology also announced a 2024 annual equity distribution plan, distributing 1.10 yuan in cash dividends for every 10 shares [3] - Airong Software reported receiving a government subsidy of 7.201 million yuan, accounting for 10.85% of the company's audited net profit for the last fiscal year [3] - Yingfang Micro disclosed a pre-announcement of share reduction by a major shareholder, planning to reduce up to 1% of shares through centralized bidding [3] Overseas News - IBM and Deca Technologies formed a significant alliance in the semiconductor packaging sector, allowing IBM to enter the advanced fan-out wafer-level packaging market [2] - Rohm launched its first high-voltage GaN driver IC, which enhances the stability of GaN devices during high-frequency and high-speed switching [2] - In April, iPhone exports from India to the U.S. increased by 76% year-on-year, while exports from China decreased by 76%, reflecting Apple's accelerated manufacturing plans in India [2] - Samsung is reportedly exiting the MLC NAND flash memory market, notifying customers that orders will only be accepted until June, prompting a search for new suppliers [2]