Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the cross-border payment industry driven by the digital renminbi, suggesting an upgrade in the investment rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is promoting the internationalization of the renminbi in conjunction with the digital renminbi, marking a transition from "scale expansion" to "structural upgrade" in the internationalization process [4][7]. - The digital renminbi enhances cross-border payment efficiency and regulatory control, providing a dual engine for the internationalization of the renminbi [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the establishment of a multi-track payment system that integrates cross-border regulation, infrastructure, and regional cooperation, which is crucial for the evolution of the digital renminbi [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Engine Framework Established - The PBOC has identified the steady development of the renminbi and digital renminbi as a core task for high-level financial openness, emphasizing a "dual-engine" strategy to enhance the international status of the renminbi [7]. - The cross-border payment system is being expanded, with a focus on the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) to better serve international trade and investment [7][9]. - The digital renminbi is positioned as a key driver for cross-border payments, particularly in small and frequent transaction scenarios, offering advantages such as decentralization, real-time settlement, and lower costs [7][9]. 2. Multi-Track Payment System Development - The multi-track payment system is evolving through cross-border regulation, infrastructure, and regional cooperation, which is essential for the digital renminbi's acceptance in international markets [2][19]. - The CIPS has expanded its reach, with 1,757 participants across 124 countries and regions, enhancing the renminbi's usability and stability in international transactions [9][10]. - The digital renminbi's design allows for real-time monitoring of cross-border fund flows, ensuring regulatory compliance while maintaining transaction efficiency [19][22]. 3. Infrastructure as Core Support for Internationalization - The CIPS serves as the backbone of the renminbi's internationalization, with a significant increase in participants since its launch in 2015, creating a robust institutional foundation for cross-border usage [9][10]. - The report highlights the comparative advantages of the CIPS over traditional systems like SWIFT, particularly in terms of transaction speed and cost efficiency [14][15]. - The digital renminbi's point-to-point settlement mechanism allows for near-instantaneous transactions, making it particularly suitable for small, high-frequency payments [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - BHP, a major Australian iron ore producer, announced it will gradually accept RMB for iron ore spot transactions, starting in Q4 2023, marking a significant milestone in the internationalization of the RMB as all four major iron ore giants now accept RMB settlement [1][7]. Group 1: Iron Ore Market Dynamics - China is heavily reliant on iron ore imports, with over 1.2 billion tons expected in 2024, 60% of which will come from Australia, highlighting the country's significant demand for high-quality iron ore [5][6]. - Despite being the largest buyer of iron ore, China has limited bargaining power due to a fragmented buyer landscape and a concentrated seller market dominated by four major companies [6][7]. - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) aims to consolidate procurement among state-owned steel enterprises to enhance bargaining power against suppliers [6][7]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization Progress - The acceptance of RMB for iron ore transactions is seen as a major step forward for RMB internationalization, especially in the context of global commodity trading [7][11]. - Recent data indicates that RMB settlements in cross-border transactions have surpassed those in USD for the first time, with over 60% of foreign trade enterprises using RMB [11][12]. - The CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) has been developed to facilitate RMB payments, covering 189 countries and connecting 1,700 banks, processing a significant volume of cross-border RMB transactions [10][12]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Innovations - The mBridge project aims to create a digital currency platform for central banks, allowing for direct currency exchanges without intermediaries, potentially reducing reliance on the USD [16][20]. - The internationalization of RMB is not just about becoming a reserve currency but also about eliminating the dominance of the USD in global trade [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cross-border payment industry, highlighting significant growth potential driven by policy support and technological innovation [4][7]. Core Insights - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is a key strategic move in the US-China rivalry, with a positive feedback loop beginning to form. The report notes that since 2024, there has been a surge in policies aimed at promoting cross-border e-commerce and payment systems, with 11 relevant policy documents issued compared to only two per year from 2021 to 2023 [5][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative payment systems such as CIPS, mBridge, and Brics Pay in facilitating RMB internationalization and improving payment efficiency compared to traditional systems like SWIFT [5][28]. - The cross-border payment industry is expected to see substantial growth as domestic payment institutions actively seek international expansion, with significant opportunities in both B2B and B2C segments [8][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Promoting RMB Internationalization - The report discusses the critical role of cross-border payments in RMB internationalization, highlighting the recent policy initiatives aimed at encouraging the development of cross-border e-commerce and payment systems [16][17]. - It outlines the strategic importance of RMB internationalization in mitigating the impacts of US dollar hegemony and enhancing China's global economic standing [21][22]. 2. Political and Technological Innovations Driving Payment System Reforms - The report compares existing systems like SWIFT with emerging Chinese systems (CIPS, mBridge, Brics Pay), noting the latter's advantages in transaction speed and cost [29][34]. - It details the operational frameworks of these new systems, emphasizing their potential to enhance the efficiency of cross-border payments [28][32]. 3. Industry Chain Expansion: Trends and Opportunities - The report identifies key players in the payment industry, including clearing institutions, banks, and third-party payment providers, and discusses their internationalization efforts [61][62]. - It highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while UnionPay has a strong global presence, there remains significant room for growth in overseas penetration [67]. 4. Listed Companies Related to the Payment Industry - The report provides insights into specific companies involved in the payment industry, such as Newland, which has obtained a rare European acquiring license, and Sifang Jingchuang, which is uniquely involved in the mBridge project [6][8]. - It also mentions companies like Lianlian and Feitian Chengxin, which are engaged in cross-border payment services and digital RMB initiatives [6][8].