Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility on January 8, with polysilicon futures hitting the limit down, and precious and non-ferrous metals markets plummeting. The sharp decline in polysilicon prices is attributed to regulatory concerns regarding monopolistic risks in the photovoltaic industry [1][4]. Market Performance - Polysilicon main futures dropped by 9%, closing at the limit down, while other related commodities such as aluminum, nickel, and silver also saw declines of over 5% to 8% [1]. - The price of polysilicon put options surged dramatically, with the polysilicon 2602 put option increasing by 110,100% to close at 1,102, with a transaction volume of 14.05 million yuan [1][2]. Regulatory Impact - A leaked meeting summary indicated that the State Administration for Market Regulation had discussions with major players in the photovoltaic sector regarding monopolistic risks and required corrective actions [3][4]. - Industry insiders confirmed the authenticity of the leaked document and indicated that the recent price drop in polysilicon futures was likely influenced by these regulatory discussions [4]. Industry Developments - A polysilicon capacity acquisition platform has been officially established, aimed at addressing the "involution" issue within the photovoltaic industry. This platform is expected to operate under a dual model of "debt acquisition and flexible capacity storage" [5][6]. - The platform is anticipated to help alleviate potential debts amounting to hundreds of billions, restore reasonable pricing, and enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry [6]. Future Outlook - The basic supply-demand dynamics for polysilicon remain weak, with a current production of 24,000 tons and an estimated demand of 85,000 tons for January, indicating an oversupply situation [7]. - If the underlying support logic for the industry is disrupted, inventory pressures may become more pronounced, leading to further downward pressure on polysilicon prices in the short term [7].

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" trend has significantly driven the multi-crystalline silicon futures market, with prices surging over 85% since June 2025, reaching a peak of 63,000 yuan/ton [1][15] - Market dynamics shifted due to policy expectations and increased capital inflow, leading to a substantial rise in futures prices [2][3] - Despite an overall supply surplus in the industry, the futures prices continued to rise, raising questions about the underlying market logic [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The multi-crystalline silicon futures market experienced a dramatic price increase from around 31,000 yuan/ton in June 2025 to over 63,000 yuan/ton by December 2025, marking a significant recovery from earlier lows [1][15] - The establishment of a storage platform and industry self-regulation initiatives have been pivotal in changing market expectations and driving prices higher [3][4] - The market saw a shift in trading logic in November 2025, with a significant reduction in warehouse receipts leading to increased bullish sentiment [2][3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many investors, particularly those holding short positions, faced severe losses as prices surged, with one investor reporting losses of up to 1.3 million to 1.5 million yuan [10][12] - The volatility in the market has led to a psychological impact on traders, with some choosing to exit positions under extreme pressure [7][10] - The market's structural shortage of deliverable goods has exacerbated the situation for short sellers, limiting their ability to correct price discrepancies through physical delivery [11][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the multi-crystalline silicon industry may continue to face a supply-demand imbalance, with supply growth expected at 3.7% and demand potentially decreasing by 10% in 2026 [16] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with ongoing debates about the effectiveness of policy measures and their impact on pricing mechanisms [16] - The ability of the industry to maintain profitability will hinge on whether costs can be effectively passed through to the end market, particularly in the context of solar module pricing [16]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" trend has significantly driven the multi-crystalline silicon futures market, leading to a price surge of over 85% within six months, with prices reaching a peak of 63,000 yuan/ton [1][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since July 2025, the multi-crystalline silicon futures market has experienced a dramatic price increase, starting from around 31,000 yuan/ton and quickly surpassing 50,000 yuan/ton within a month [1]. - By December 30, 2025, the main contract "2605" was reported at 57,890 yuan/ton, marking a significant increase compared to the low of 31,000 yuan/ton in late June [14]. - The market has seen a notable rise in participation, with more traders entering the multi-crystalline silicon futures market as prices continued to climb [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a core driving factor for the multi-crystalline silicon futures market, with policy expectations and capital inflow creating a resonance that pushed prices higher [2]. - In late November 2025, a shift in market logic occurred due to a significant reduction in warehouse receipts, which fueled bullish sentiment and led to a price breakout [2]. - The establishment of a "silicon material storage platform" has been a key catalyst for the market's turnaround, transitioning from rumors to tangible actions [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Issues - Despite an overall surplus in industry capacity, the futures prices have continued to rise, raising questions about the underlying supply-demand dynamics [2]. - The actual supply of deliverable multi-crystalline silicon is limited, as most circulating goods do not meet delivery standards, creating structural shortages that support futures prices [10][11]. - The recent establishment of a multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration and acquisition platform has been viewed as a potential support for prices when they drop to certain levels [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the multi-crystalline silicon industry may continue to experience a long-term capacity clearing pattern, with supply growth expected at around 3.7% and demand potentially decreasing by 10% due to shifts in focus towards energy storage [15]. - The pricing logic is evolving from cost competition to a test of the entire industry's profit coordination ability, with the actual transaction prices in the component segment being a critical indicator of sustainable trends [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of industrial silicon trended upward, with the benchmark spot price at 8800 yuan/ton on December 26, up 0.79% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated downward, but with a weekly increase of 2.19%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 224,700 lots [9]. - Supply slightly increased as production in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased, while that in the Northwest increased, and Hunan stopped production entirely. However, due to weak downstream demand, this change had no significant market impact [9]. - Demand for industrial silicon decreased as the supply of polysilicon continued to shrink in December, the domestic silicone industry's production reduction advanced, and the output of aluminum rods slightly decreased. Exports in November 2025 were 54,900 tons, up 21.78% month - on - month and 3.72% year - on - year. From January to November, the total export was 661,500 tons, showing an increase compared to previous months [9]. - Costs were basically stable this week, and profits increased due to stable costs and rising market prices [9]. - Overall inventory trended upward [9]. - Looking ahead, with stable supply, weak downstream and terminal demand, and high inventory, the market is expected to decline further. Suggested strategies include shorting si2605 at high prices, with an expected operating range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton; buying put options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [9]. Polysilicon - This week (2025.12.19 - 2025.12.26), the spot price of polysilicon fluctuated within a range. The benchmark spot price on December 26 was 56,105 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from December 19. The futures market's main contract fluctuated upward, but with a weekly decrease of 2.14%. The current main - month contract's open interest is about 119,100 lots [11]. - Supply continued to shrink in December, with a small overall decline. Although some enterprises in the Southwest reduced production due to the dry season, there was an increase in the Northwest. The domestic polysilicon output in December is expected to be about 115,000 tons, and supply may continue to decline slightly next month [11]. - Overall demand contracted due to the off - season, and downstream procurement was sluggish due to production cuts and high inventory, making it difficult for industry demand to recover quickly. Short - term attention should be paid to inventory digestion and downstream production scheduling changes [11]. - Costs increased slightly this week, and profits decreased slightly [11]. - The current polysilicon industry inventory is high and difficult to reverse substantially. The overall reduction in supply was limited, and it did not fully match the decline in demand [11]. - Most polysilicon enterprises have raised new order quotes to 65,000 yuan/ton, reflecting their optimistic expectations and price - support intentions. The price difference between quotes and transactions is a game between cost support from production cuts and cautious procurement due to weak downstream demand. The establishment of the purchase and storage platform is seen as a potential positive factor, improving market sentiment and transaction atmosphere. Suggested strategies include going long on PS2605 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 55,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; buying call options; or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: On December 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out "involution - style" competition issues in the industry. On December 24, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses. On December 23, it restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in polysilicon futures. On December 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that 2026 would be a critical period for photovoltaic industry governance. On December 12, the "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established [6]. - **Industrial Silicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [9]. - **Polysilicon Week - on - Week View**: See the core views section above [11]. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., which are used to produce industrial silicon. Industrial silicon is further processed into organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys, and these products are applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaics [17]. Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Prices**: There are price charts for different grades and regions of industrial silicon, including 553 and 421 grades, in various ports and locations [23][24][29][31]. - **Futures Contracts**: There are charts for the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active contracts of industrial silicon [37][41]. Inventory - There are charts showing the industrial silicon industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [50][54]. Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: There are charts for the comprehensive profit and cost of all grades of industrial silicon [61]. - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: There are price charts for industrial silicon electricity in multiple main and non - main production areas [67][72][75][83][89]. - **Silica Stone Prices**: There are price charts for silica stone in different regions [95][99]. - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: There are price charts for petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions [102][108]. Supply - **Output**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, monthly capacity, and production start - up rate of industrial silicon [115][119]. - **Newly Added Capacity**: Multiple companies in different regions have newly added industrial silicon production capacity, with a total of 1.88 million tons [123]. Demand - **Consumption Overview**: There are charts for the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon [126]. - **Polysilicon**: There are charts for the monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit of polysilicon [132][138]. - **Organic Silicon**: There are charts for the market price, intermediate production, production cost, and production profit of organic silicon in the East China region [143][149]. - **Aluminum Rods**: There are charts for the weekly and monthly output, price, and inventory of aluminum rods, as well as the output, start - up rate, and inventory of primary and secondary aluminum alloys [154][159][161][168][172]. - **Solar/PV**: There are charts for the cumulative output of solar cells and the price of battery cells [179]. Import and Export - There are charts for the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon [189][193].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental aspect is not the main logic for futures trading. Futures funds are still speculating on the positive impact of the reserve platform on capacity constraints. The exchange has continuously taken measures to send out stabilizing signals. In the short - term, the market will continue to run cautiously and strongly, with short - term support around 58,000 yuan. Spot enterprises have price - raising actions, but market transactions are light. The expected output of polysilicon in December is 110,000 - 120,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 60GW. However, the production of intermediate silicon wafers and battery cells will be lower than that of polysilicon, and the terminal demand is still in a weak stage after the "rush - to - install" period [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. The trading volume was 213,280 lots, and the open interest was 134,949 lots, a net decrease of 4,238 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 237 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 2,098 lots [4]. 3.2. Spot Price - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3. Market News - On December 22, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,660 lots, remaining the same as the previous trading day. Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. completed its registration, marking the official establishment of the long - awaited "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry. The platform plans to adopt an innovative "two - pronged approach" model, operating under a dual - track model of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible utilization of production capacity" through market - oriented and legal mechanisms [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products oscillated at the bottom. The supply - demand structure of rebar was relatively balanced, while hot - rolled coils faced inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to maintain bottom - range oscillations, and the export license management policy may put short - term pressure on prices but is expected to be gradually digested [2]. - Iron ore prices are estimated to operate within an oscillating range. Supply shows an increasing trend in overseas shipments, while demand has declined with a drop in daily pig iron production. The overall inventory is rising, and the impact of the export license management policy needs further observation [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the report remains relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. Future market trends will be led by the direction of the black sector and cost increases due to factors such as manganese ore and electricity prices [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate following the market, with short - term rebounds after touching support levels. The supply reduction has encountered a bottleneck, and demand is weakening [13]. - Polysilicon prices saw a significant increase yesterday. Although production is expected to decline in December, the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to alleviate. The market shows a differentiation between expectations and reality, and short - term fluctuations are expected to increase [16]. - The float glass market maintains a weak supply - demand balance, and prices are expected to show narrow - range oscillations in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [19]. - Soda ash prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term due to increasing supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes [21]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel Products Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.097%) compared to the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57057 tons, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10413 lots to 1.604729 million lots. The Tianjin aggregate price was 3160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, rebar production decreased significantly, inventory continued to decline, and the supply - demand structure was relatively balanced, showing a neutral - stable performance [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%). The registered warehouse receipts were 103404 tons, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 6813 lots to 1.199948 million lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregate prices were unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, apparent demand slightly decreased, and inventory reduction became more difficult. Factory inventory has shown a phased accumulation this week [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 768.00 yuan/ton, up 0.92% (+7.00). The open interest increased by 9427 lots to 489,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 884,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 67.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.13% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily pig iron production fell below 2.292 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, and steel mill inventory was at a low level. Iron ore prices are estimated to operate within an oscillating range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On December 17, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% to close at 5758 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 1.17% to close at 5546 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The report is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon will be affected by the direction of the black sector and cost increases caused by factors such as manganese ore and electricity prices [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon was 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.26% (+105). The weighted open interest decreased by 6191 lots to 425,093 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 730 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon price rebounded slightly after touching the support level. Supply reduction has encountered a bottleneck, and demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate following the market [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 61,595 yuan/ton, up 5.11% (+2995). The weighted open interest decreased by 1463 lots to 275,506 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material were unchanged, with a basis of - 9295 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon price rose by over 5% yesterday. Although production is expected to decline in December, the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to alleviate. The market shows a differentiation between expectations and reality, and short - term fluctuations are expected to increase [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1038 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged. The North China large - plate price was 1040 yuan, and the Central China price was 1080 yuan, both unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (- 2.04%) to 58.227 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,888 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23,121 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side saw some production lines cold - repaired, and daily melting volume declined, but high inventory and weak terminal demand restricted upward price movement. The market is expected to show narrow - range oscillations in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1170 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged. The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, down 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (- 2.04%) to 1.4943 million tons, with heavy - soda and light - soda inventories both decreasing [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new capacity in Alxa, supply pressure is increasing. Demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

Industry Overview - The establishment of the polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform is seen as a key measure to address the "involution" and vicious competition within the photovoltaic industry [1] - The platform adopts a dual approach of "debt acquisition + flexible capacity reduction," aiming to tackle the industry's overcapacity and low-price competition [1] - Current oversupply in the photovoltaic sector has led to significant price competition, with domestic polysilicon production in November at approximately 114,900 tons, a 15.9% month-on-month decrease [1] Market Dynamics - The platform is expected to stabilize the mainstream price of polysilicon above 60,000 yuan per ton, while the current average transaction price for n-type polysilicon is 53,200 yuan per ton, indicating potential for price recovery [2] - The integration platform is anticipated to usher in a new phase of "market-oriented operation + industry collaborative regulation" for the polysilicon sector [2] Growth Opportunities - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see price increases driven by supply-side reforms, new technologies, and the industrialization opportunities of perovskite technology [2][3] - Longi Green Energy has set ambitious profit targets for 2026-2028, with a projected net profit of no less than 3 billion yuan in 2026 and 6 billion yuan in 2028, alongside a significant increase in BC component production capacity [2][4] Technological Trends - The industrialization of new technologies such as perovskite is accelerating, presenting opportunities for related equipment manufacturers [3] - The BC battery technology is highlighted as a crucial factor for leading companies to achieve profit recovery [3] Company Insights - Longi Green Energy is recognized as a leader in the photovoltaic industry, with a strong presence in the downstream sectors of silicon wafers and modules [4] - Aiko Solar is identified as a core player in the photovoltaic cell segment [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is running weakly, with prices breaking through support levels. In the short - term, after a smooth decline, attention should be paid to the rebound near technical support levels. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck, and demand support is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti - involution" related commodities improves. For polysilicon, there is a significant divergence between expectations and reality. The expected "anti - involution" is strong, but the downstream reality is weak. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and attention should be paid to the pressure performance at the 60,000 - yuan mark on the disk [16][18] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - The weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. The DMC output is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [14] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [14] Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [15] Cost - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [15] Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [15] 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [23] Polysilicon - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type reclaimed feedstock is 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51 yuan/kg, also remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 57,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,040 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract is - 4,890 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of - 9.35% [26] 03. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. In November 2025, the output of industrial silicon is 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decrease is 672,900 tons or 15.39% [31] Main Production Areas Output - Not specifically summarized in text, but data on production in different regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in figures [33][35][38] Production Cost - As of December 12, 2025, the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber remain unchanged month - on - month, and the silica price also remains stable month - on - month. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [43][46] Visible Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [49] 04. Polysilicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. Under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon output in November is 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons; from January to November, the cumulative output of polysilicon is 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [54] Operating Rate and Scheduled Production - The operating rate of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber in November is 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in December will be 113,500 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month [57] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 298,800 tons; under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon inventory is 293,000 tons [60] Cost and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 41,790.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of polysilicon is 8,314.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63] Silicon Wafer - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of silicon wafers under the SMM caliber is 12.15GW, an increase month - on - month. The silicon wafer output in November is 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. From January to November, the silicon wafer output is 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The silicon wafer inventory is 23.3GW, a slight increase month - on - month. The predicted silicon wafer output in December is 45.7GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [66][69] Battery Cell - Under the SMM caliber, the battery cell output in November is 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in November is 56.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of battery cells is 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories is 9.07GW, an increase month - on - month. The predicted battery cell output in December is 48.72GW, a significant increase month - on - month [75][78] Component - Under the SMM caliber, the component output in November is 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The component operating rate in November is 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of components is 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. As of December 12, 2025, the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic components under the SMM caliber is 30.4GW, remaining stable month - on - month. The predicted component output in December is 39.99GW, a significant decrease compared with November [83][86] 05. Organic Silicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC output under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. The DMC output in November is 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative DMC output is 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58% [93] Price and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of organic silicon under the SMM statistics is reported at 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 1,709.38 yuan/ton [96] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC inventory under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 44,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [99] 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of December 12, 2025, the quotation of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 22,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 130 yuan/ton; the quotation of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 60%; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is 59.8% [104][107] Export - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [110]