近日，中国光伏行业协会在官方微信公众号发文称，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司完成注册，标志着 光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地，这一举措被业内视为破解光伏行业"内卷 式"恶性竞争的关键。 该平台创新采用"两条腿走路"模式，通过"承债式收购+弹性封存压产能"双轨运行，依托"政府引导+行 业协同+市场化并购"的路径，从产业链源头的多晶硅环节切入，整治行业恶性竞争。在金融层面，平 台将承接数百亿元级潜在债务，既能化解银行与供应商的债务危机，也能推动多晶硅价格回归合理区 间，助力全产业链恢复"造血"功能。 在技术发展趋势上，国盛证券指出钙钛矿等新技术的产业化进程正在加速，相关设备厂商将迎来机遇； 江海证券则聚焦BC电池技术路线，认为该技术将成为头部企业实现盈利修复的重要抓手。 上下游产业链方面，多晶硅环节的整合将向上游传导至设备端，向下利好电池片、组件等环节的盈利修 复，同时电网、储能等配套环节也将随光伏装机量的合理释放迎来增量需求。 公司方面，据国盛证券等表示， 隆基绿能：作为光伏行业龙头，公司在多晶硅下游的硅片、组件环节布局深厚。 爱旭股份：公司为光伏电池片领域的核心企业 *免责声明：文章内容仅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is running weakly, with prices breaking through support levels. In the short - term, after a smooth decline, attention should be paid to the rebound near technical support levels. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck, and demand support is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak, but it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti - involution" related commodities improves. For polysilicon, there is a significant divergence between expectations and reality. The expected "anti - involution" is strong, but the downstream reality is weak. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve, and attention should be paid to the pressure performance at the 60,000 - yuan mark on the disk [16][18] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Demand - The weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. The DMC output is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [14] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [14] Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [15] Cost - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [15] Supply - The weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons [15] 02. Spot and Futures Market Industrial Silicon - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 8,435 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 370 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygenated) has a premium of 765 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis ratio of 8.32%; the 421 has a premium of 415 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis ratio of 4.69% [23] Polysilicon - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type reclaimed feedstock is 52.3 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week; the average price of N - type dense material is 51 yuan/kg, also remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 57,190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4,040 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract is - 4,890 yuan/ton, with a basis ratio of - 9.35% [26] 03. Industrial Silicon Total Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber is 82,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons. In November 2025, the output of industrial silicon is 360,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decrease is 672,900 tons or 15.39% [31] Main Production Areas Output - Not specifically summarized in text, but data on production in different regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in figures [33][35][38] Production Cost - As of December 12, 2025, the electricity prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon under the Baichuan caliber remain unchanged month - on - month, and the silica price also remains stable month - on - month. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang is reported at 8,504.17 yuan/ton; in Yunnan, it is 9,720.00 yuan/ton; in Sichuan, it is 9,825.00 yuan/ton; and in Inner Mongolia, it is 8,985.71 yuan/ton [43][46] Visible Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of industrial silicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistical caliber is 507,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,800 tons. Among them, the factory inventory is 273,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,100 tons; the market inventory is 191,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory is 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons [49] 04. Polysilicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 26,300 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month. Under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon output in November is 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 tons; from January to November, the cumulative output of polysilicon is 1.1897 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [54] Operating Rate and Scheduled Production - The operating rate of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber in November is 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in December will be 113,500 tons, continuing to decline month - on - month [57] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 298,800 tons; under the SMM caliber, the polysilicon inventory is 293,000 tons [60] Cost and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 41,790.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit of polysilicon is 8,314.63 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63] Silicon Wafer - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly output of silicon wafers under the SMM caliber is 12.15GW, an increase month - on - month. The silicon wafer output in November is 54.37GW, a month - on - month decrease of 6.28GW. From January to November, the silicon wafer output is 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The silicon wafer inventory is 23.3GW, a slight increase month - on - month. The predicted silicon wafer output in December is 45.7GW, a significant decrease month - on - month [66][69] Battery Cell - Under the SMM caliber, the battery cell output in November is 55.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66GW. The operating rate of photovoltaic batteries in November is 56.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of battery cells is 622.72GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.59%. As of December 12, 2025, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories is 9.07GW, an increase month - on - month. The predicted battery cell output in December is 48.72GW, a significant increase month - on - month [75][78] Component - Under the SMM caliber, the component output in November is 46.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2GW. The component operating rate in November is 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. From January to November, the cumulative output of components is 524.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13%. As of December 12, 2025, the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic components under the SMM caliber is 30.4GW, remaining stable month - on - month. The predicted component output in December is 39.99GW, a significant decrease compared with November [83][86] 05. Organic Silicon Output - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC output under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,300 tons. The DMC output in November is 209,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative DMC output is 2.2722 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.58% [93] Price and Profit - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of organic silicon under the SMM statistics is reported at 13,600 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC under the Baichuan Yingfu statistics is 1,709.38 yuan/ton [96] Inventory - As of December 12, 2025, the DMC inventory under the Baichuan Yingfu caliber is 44,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [99] 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export Aluminum Alloy - As of December 12, 2025, the quotation of primary aluminum alloy A356 is 22,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 130 yuan/ton; the quotation of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton. From January to October, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy is 15.76 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.542 million tons or 19.23%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 60%; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy is 59.8% [104][107] Export - From January to October, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon is 598,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9,700 tons or 1.66% [110]