FICC Research Economics 24 February 2025 China Rising animal spirits China's H shares outperformed amid the AI breakthrough. CNY stabilised with "Mar-a-Lago Accord" talk gaining momentum. President Xi's symposium with entrepreneurs sent supportive signals. We think key things to watch for the NPC, including the growth and inflation targets, and fiscal package. Previously published in Global Economics Weekly: Deal and Peace, 21 February 2025. Equity re-rating; CNY stabilises The DeepSeek breakthrough has led ...

QUICK TAKE 24 February 2025 China SMID Internet China Robotaxi: And then there were three...Takeaways from our test ride of Didi's Robotaxi with Jan2025 software upgrade Boris Van +852 2918 5753 boris.van@bernsteinsg.com Ting Ming Neo +852 2123 2554 tingming.neo@bernsteinsg.com China's Robotaxi scene is commonly viewed as a two horse race between Baidu and Pony.AI (not covered), with Didi (not covered) a distant third. Understanding Didi's likelihood of catching up is therefore critical to formulating one's ...

24 February 2025 | 9:28PM BRT Pulp & Paper 2025 Global Pulp: 10 Key Themes to Watch Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs ...

23 Feb 2025 17:00:35 ET │ 307 pages China Healthcare Handbook 2025: Come Back and Catch Up CITI'S TAKE We believe that in 2025 investor interest will return to China's healthcare sector, keen to catch up with the latest developments. Although concerns might persist, investors will find it difficult to turn a blind eye to the significant improvements in domestic innovations that have global potential. Even the most risk-averse investors have stopped asking about GPOs; rather, they are looking for policy deta ...

China (PRC) | Alternative Energy Solar: Module Price for Distributed PV Rebounds Slightly with Demand Pick-Up SIA reported P-/N-type poly quotes stayed at RMB34.0/41.7 per kg; M10/ G12 P-type/G10L/G12R/G12 N-type wafer prices were all flat WoW at RMB1.10/1.66/1.18/1.30/1.55 per pc. Per SolarZoom, M10/G12 PERC/ M10 TOPCon cell prices stayed at RMB0.285/0.29/0.295 per W. Mono M10, G12 PERC/Bi-facial M10, G12 PERC/M10 TOPCon modules stayed at RMB0.69/0.70/0.71 per W. Per SCI, 3.2/2.0mm SG prices were flat WoW ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Battery & Materials Year 2025 investment thesis; initiate on Hunan Yuneng at Overweight China Asia Autos & EV Battery Rebecca Wen AC (852) 2800-8505 rebecca.y ...

We believe further clarification is needed by Microsoft on its capex and broader capacity intentions to form a strong view on the implications. At this stage, we see this as 1/ Microsoft-specific given already very high ambitions and given the recent newflow vis-a- vis OpenAI and Stargate and 2/ rather fine-tuning of timing and exact mix of capacity additions rather than change of stance from growth to stable or down development. We put the above in context of MSFT accounting for 4% of global Data Centre ca ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy and Real Estate Market - **Date**: February 24, 2025 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Passenger Turnover Growth**: Passenger turnover during the Chinese New Year peak season increased by 7% from 2024 and was 15% higher than pre-COVID levels in 2019 [2][2][2] 2. **Property Sales Performance**: The growth of 30-city property sales showed a mixed performance with 9% growth in the 14 days before CNY, a significant 72% increase during the CNY holidays, but a decline of 2% in the 18 days after [2][2][2] 3. **Construction Work Resumption**: The work resumption ratio for over 13,000 construction projects was 47.7% in the third week post-CNY, a decrease of 15.2% YoY, marking the lowest level since 2021 [3][3][3] 4. **Housing Prices**: Average housing prices in 70 major cities declined by 0.1% MoM and 5.4% YoY, with tier 1 cities experiencing slight increases while lower-tier cities continued to decline [4][4][4] 5. **LPR Stability**: The one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively in February [4][4][4] 6. **Government Support for Private Sector**: A meeting held by President Xi with business leaders emphasized support for the private sector and included an action plan with 20 measures to enhance foreign investment [5][5][5] 7. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to be around 5%, which is considered ambitious given the current economic headwinds [7][7][7] 8. **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: An expansion of the fiscal deficit by over 2 percentage points of GDP is anticipated, with a headline deficit projected at 4% of GDP [7][7][7] Additional Important Information 1. **Weak Construction Resumption**: The construction workers returning ratio was 49.7%, down 7.8% YoY, indicating a slower return compared to previous years [3][3][3] 2. **Market Access for Foreign Investment**: The action plan aims to fully remove restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector and expand market access in various service sectors [5][5][5] 3. **Trade Policy Concerns**: Potential additional tariffs on Chinese goods by the US may lead to further policy support from China throughout 2025 [7][7][7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Chinese economy, particularly in the real estate sector, and the government's response to economic challenges.

Summary of the Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Chinese Internet Data Centre (IDC) Sector** and its relationship with hyperscalers' capital expenditures (capex) [2][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Hyperscalers' Capex to IDC EBITDA Conversion**: - A simplified calculation indicates that incremental IDC EBITDA is at least **3%** of hyperscalers' total capex [2][4]. - For example, if a hyperscaler spends **Rmb100 billion** on capex, it could translate to **Rmb3 billion** in incremental IDC EBITDA [2][4]. 2. **Factors Affecting Calculations**: - Several factors can influence the final results, including: - A higher mix of CPU or domestic GPU servers may increase total MW [3]. - Data centers located in tier 1 cities may have higher IDC capex per MW and EBITDA [3]. - Data centers in remote areas may have lower IDC capex per MW [3]. 3. **Detailed Calculation Breakdown**: - The report provided a detailed breakdown of the calculation: - Total server capex: **Rmb100 billion** - Average selling price per server: **Rmb1 million** - Total number of servers: **100,000** - Average power density: **7.5 kW/unit** - Total server power: **750 MW** - Total IT power: **833 MW** - IDC capex per MW: **Rmb30 million** - IDC EBITDA yield: **12%** - Total incremental IDC EBITDA: **Rmb3 billion** [4]. 4. **Recognition Timeline**: - Incremental IDC EBITDA will be fully recognized in an average of **2 years** due to project delivery and utilization ramp-up time [4]. Risks and Opportunities 1. **Downside Risks**: - Weaker-than-expected demand for AI training. - Potential faults at data centers damaging reputation. - Higher-than-expected interest rates. - Less favorable regulatory environment [9]. 2. **Upside Risks**: - Stronger-than-expected growth in AI and cloud business. - Lower-than-expected electricity costs. - Lower-than-expected interest rates. - Tighter control on license granting and Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) requirements [9]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the complexity of converting hyperscalers' capex into IDC orders and EBITDA due to various assumptions involved [2]. - The analysis is based on estimates from UBS and highlights the potential for growth in the IDC sector driven by AI and cloud computing demands [2][9]. Conclusion - The Chinese IDC sector presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in relation to hyperscalers' capital expenditures, but also carries inherent risks that investors should consider.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 24 February 2025 Memory Market Update AI memory expert fireside chat – key takeaways from Korea Conference 2025 We hosted an AI memory fireside chat session on 'HBM industry dynamics' with OMDIA (a third-party research vendor) at our Korea conference and share our key takeaways. OMDIA's overall comments on the HBM demand outlook, pricing and tech cadence were consistent with our findings (SKH ahead of SEC/MU) and we found their observations on tight clean room ca ...