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Global Fund Manager Survey-The Crash in Cash
2025-12-17 02:27
Summary of BofA December Global Fund Manager Survey Industry Overview - The survey reflects the sentiment of global fund managers regarding macroeconomic conditions, asset allocation, and investment strategies as of December 2025. Key Points Macro & Economic Outlook - **Macro Optimism**: The macro optimism is at its highest since August 2021, with 57% of respondents predicting a soft landing for the economy, 37% expecting no landing, and only 3% anticipating a hard landing [2][19] - **Profit Expectations**: Net profit expectations rose to 29%, the highest since August 2021, indicating a positive outlook on global profits [26] - **Liquidity Conditions**: Rated as the third best in the past 17 years, with 61% of investors rating liquidity conditions as positive, the highest since September 2021 [41][43] Asset Allocation Trends - **Cash Levels**: Cash levels dropped to a record low of 3.3%, down from 3.7%, indicating a strong shift towards risk assets [1][103] - **Equity and Commodity Allocation**: Allocation to equities rose to a net 42% overweight (OW), the highest since December 2024, while commodities reached a net 18% OW, the highest since September 2022 [16][55] - **Sector Rotation**: Significant rotation into US stocks, technology, and materials, while reducing exposure to bonds, healthcare, and staples [4][60] Investment Risks and Concerns - **AI Bubble**: Identified as the biggest tail risk by 38% of investors, with concerns about overinvestment in AI-related capital expenditures [31][29] - **Credit Event Sources**: 40% of investors believe private equity/private credit is the most likely source of a credit event, followed by AI hyperscaler capex at 29% [34][36] Crowded Trades - **Most Crowded Trades**: "Long Magnificent 7" remains the most crowded trade at 54%, followed by "Long Gold" at 29% [37][39] Future Expectations - **Bond Yield Expectations**: 38% of investors expect long-term interest rates to rise, the highest since April 2022 [45] - **Yield Curve Steepening**: 75% of investors anticipate a steepening yield curve in the next 12 months [48] Regional and Sector Allocations - **US Equities**: Net 6% overweight in US equities, the highest since February 2025 [145] - **Underweight Sectors**: Significant underweight positions in energy (26% UW) and consumer staples (20% UW) [56][172] Conclusion - The December survey indicates a strong bullish sentiment among fund managers, with significant shifts towards equities and commodities, while concerns about potential risks, particularly related to AI and credit events, remain prevalent. The overall outlook suggests a cautious optimism as investors navigate the current economic landscape.
Asia Fund Manager Survey-Easing up
2025-12-17 02:27
Summary of Asia Fund Manager Survey Industry Overview - **Industry**: Asia Pacific Financial Markets - **Survey Period**: December 5 - December 11, 2025 - **Participants**: 238 fund managers with a total of $550 billion in assets under management (AUM) [11] Key Insights Economic Growth Expectations - Global growth expectations reached a four-year high, while Asia Pacific ex-Japan economic prospects are near one-year highs [1][14] - Japan's growth outlook is at a survey peak, indicating strong investor confidence [1] Market Sentiment - Investors maintain a positive market bias but have moderated return expectations due to high valuations [2] - Japan is the most favored market, consistently topping preference rankings since October 2023 [3][50] - China’s growth momentum has stalled, with investors awaiting signs of stimulative policy before increasing exposure [4][28] Sector Preferences - In Japan, banks and semiconductors are favored sectors, driven by rising long-term rates and AI themes [3][48] - In Asia Pacific ex-Japan, tech hardware, semiconductors, and software are the most preferred sectors, while real estate and energy are out of favor [53][54] Investment Themes - Popular investment themes in China include AI, semiconductors, and internet sectors, while green economy and travel have lost favor [55][56] - Korea's 'Corporate Value-Up Program' has garnered positive sentiment post-election [57] Corporate Profit Expectations - A net 41% of fund managers expect stronger corporate profits in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan region, the highest since October 2024 [20][27] - Consensus earnings estimates are not considered high, indicating potential for future upgrades [27] Valuation Concerns - There is a perception that Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are moderately overvalued due to a significant rally year-to-date [23][25] - Investors are cautious about potential returns given the ~50% rally since April lows [3] China’s Economic Outlook - The outlook for China has stabilized, with a net 3% of investors expecting a stronger economy, a shift from 29% expecting a weaker economy last month [28] - Long-term prospects for China are improving, nearing a three-year high, with 45% of investors believing the equity market is in a structural de-rating process [30][31] Monetary Policy Expectations - There are calls for easing monetary policy in China as consumer and business confidence begins to improve [32][34] - 83% of fund managers expect easier monetary policy in China over the next 12 months [34] Additional Insights - Household risk appetite in China is waning, with a shift towards savings over investments, leading to underweight allocations [4][36] - Japan's economic outlook is overwhelmingly positive, with virtually no investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months [38][39] - Key themes for Japan equities include earnings growth, corporate governance reforms, and Bank of Japan policy normalization [44][45] This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the Asia Fund Manager Survey, highlighting the current sentiment and expectations within the Asia Pacific financial markets.
Treasury Wine Estates (OTCPK:TSRY.Y) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-12-17 00:02
Treasury Wine Estates (OTCPK:TSRY.Y) Update / Briefing December 16, 2025 06:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsStuart Boxer - CFOMark Southwell-Keely - Executive DirectorPhillip Kimber - Executive DirectorMichael Simotas - Head of Consumer Equity ResearchTom Kierath - Founding Principal and Head of Consumer ResearchSam Fischer - CEOShaun Cousins - Executive DirectorBen Gilbert - Head of Australian ResearchCaleb Wheatley - Head of Consumer Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsDavid Errington - AnalystSam Tee ...
Treasury Wine Estates (OTCPK:TSRY.Y) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-12-16 23:00
INVESTOR UPDATE For personal use only 17 December 2025 Important information All references to '$' throughout this presentation refer to Australian Dollars, unless marked otherwise. This presentation is in summary form and is not necessarily complete. It should be read together with the Company's Annual Report for 30 June 2025 including the Appendix 4E, the Appendix 4D and 2025 Interim Results, and other announcements lodged with the Australian Securities Exchange, which are available at www.asx.com.au. Thi ...
DBV Technologies (NasdaqCM:DBVT) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-12-16 23:02
DBV Technologies (NasdaqCM:DBVT) Update / Briefing December 16, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsPharis Mohideen - Chief Medical OfficerJonathan Neely - Head of Investor RelationsDaniel Tassé - CEOKevin Trapp - Chief Commercial OfficerConference Call ParticipantsAbby Gray - AnalystKristen Kluska - AnalystJon Wolleben - AnalystYatin Suneja - AnalystSam Slutsky - AnalystSushila Hernandez - AnalystOperatorWelcome to the DBV Technologies Update conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode ...
Tantalus Systems Holding (OTCPK:TGMP.F) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-12-16 22:02
Tantalus Systems Holding (OTCPK:TGMP.F) Update / Briefing December 16, 2025 04:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsNone - Company Representative 2None - Company Representative 1None - Company Representative 3NoneThat safety situation in hand and alleviate that problem. But what a remote disconnect allows us to do is it allows us to have power to every customer. So you can put someone on a prepay program. So even if a customer can't afford electricity, you can set them up to be successful using our meters in a prep ...
United Natural Foods(UNFI) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-12-16 21:32
United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI) FY 2025 Annual General Meeting December 16, 2025 03:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsDanielle Benedict - CHROMichael S. Funk - DirectorJames M. Loree - DirectorDaphne J. Dufresne - DirectorDavid Williamson - CEO of RetailJames L. Muehlbauer - DirectorGloria R. Boyland - DirectorLynn S. Blake - DirectorMatteo Tarditi - President and CFOSandy Douglas - CEOJames C. Pappas - DirectorMark Bushway - President of Natural Organic Specialty and Fresh Products and Chief Supply Chain Offic ...
United Natural Foods(UNFI) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-12-16 21:32
United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI) FY 2025 Annual General Meeting December 16, 2025 03:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsDanielle Benedict - CHROMichael S. Funk - DirectorJames M. Loree - DirectorDaphne J. Dufresne - DirectorDavid Williamson - CEO of RetailJames L. Muehlbauer - DirectorGloria R. Boyland - DirectorLynn S. Blake - DirectorMatteo Tarditi - President and CFOSandy Douglas - CEOJames C. Pappas - DirectorMark Bushway - President of Natural Organic Specialty and Fresh Products and Chief Supply Chain Offic ...
United Natural Foods(UNFI) - 2025 FY - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-12-16 21:30
United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI) FY 2025 Annual General Meeting December 16, 2025 03:30 PM ET Speaker6Good afternoon and welcome to our annual meeting of stakeholders. I am Mahrouq Hussain, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of United Natural Foods, Inc. In accordance with the company's bylaws, I will be serving as Secretary of the meeting. In the interest of having an orderly and constructive meeting today, please review the meeting guidelines and rules of conduct posted on the online meeting portal. ...
Alvotech (NasdaqGM:ALVO) Update / Briefing Transcript
2025-12-16 18:02
Alvotech (NasdaqGM:ALVO) Update / Briefing December 16, 2025 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsLinda Jónsdóttir - CFORobert Wessman - Founder and Chairman of the BoardJoseph McClellan - COOOperatorDon't stop there. The COO, Joseph McClellan, and the Head of Investor Relations, which is Patrik Ling. There is one page in the presentation with the convertible bond terms. We can go through that afterwards. There must also be a Q&A session, and you can write your questions into the box on the top there. But now I ...