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Global Macro Strategy_ December Index Extensions
M Update Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research estimates based on price and duration from December 23, 2024 Germany should have the largest extension this month (0.069y) compared to other countries, close to its average December extension of 0.072y. The higher extension is mainly caused by BKO 3.1% Dec-2025 (market value €19.2 billion, weight 1.3%) falling out of the index. 1-5y index will extend by 0.047y. Exhibit 7: December euro extensions by sovereign Morgan Stanley Research 3 United States UK UKT ...
Wuliangye ( CH)_Buy_ 2025 – the year to improve marketing execution
| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | | | | | 190.00 | | | 144.50 | | 12/23 06/24 | 99.00 12/24 | | Target price: 173.00 High: 164.05 Low: 107.69 Current: 143.55 | | | Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates | | | Katharine Song* (Reg. No. S1700517120001) Head of A-share Consumer Research HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited kathy.l.h.song@hsbcqh.com.c ...
North America Internet_ Internet Traffic Trends Analysis_ Positive for META, DASH, GOOGL, Z, GDDY; Broader Social Engagement and eCom Traffic Mixed
ASML· 2024-12-26 03:07
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Pony AI Inc. (PONY)_ L4 Robotaxi leader on scale expansion; Initiate at Buy
AIRPO· 2024-12-24 07:52
c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Buy c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Pony AI Inc. (PONY) c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Goldman Sachs Pony AI Inc. (PONY) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Remote assistant cost TNC cut Depreciation - Vehicle Depreciation - ADK Fleet operation and maintenance (US$)Segment Partners/ Clients 124 396 1,490 3,441 11,401 58,237 180,790 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028 ...
Investment Grade TMT Outlook Key themes for 2025
Key Points WPP * **Inorganic Growth Limited**: WPP's focus on organic growth and integration of AI (WPP Open) to enhance operational efficiencies, limiting major inorganic moves due to increased leverage. * **2024 Guidance Downgrade**: Impacted by challenges in the TMT sector and loss of Pfizer contract, but optimism for 2025. * **Shift in Focus**: Moving beyond restructuring efforts, concentrating on competition and expansion. Telecoms * **Market Structure Improvements**: BT Group and Vodafone may benefit from improved market structure in the UK and Italy, while Orange and Telefonica may see improvements in Spain. * **Telenor and CK Hutchison**: Telenor as a potential consolidator in Denmark and Sweden, CK Hutchison potentially exiting these markets. * **German Regulatory Decisions**: Telefonica may increase market presence in Germany depending on regulatory decisions. * **Recommendation**: Switch out of low-BBB rated TELEFO 2.592% 2031s into better-rated BRITEL 3.75% 2031s for a 2bp pick. Advertising Agencies * **Scale and Efficiency**: Scale becoming increasingly important for media buying and negotiations with digital platforms and ad tech vendors. * **Omnicom/Interpublic Deal**: Targets $750m of annual cost synergies, with WPP focusing on restoring balance sheet metrics. * **Publicis**: May have flexibility to consider inorganic options, with potential for headline risk. Broadcasting and Streaming * **Netflix**: Well-positioned to navigate fragmented content landscape, with increasing demand for on-demand content. * **Content Spending**: Netflix expects to spend $17bn in 2024 on content, expanding its library and local language content. * **Broadcasters**: Facing challenges from streaming platforms, with some broadcasters expanding into AVOD space. Satellite * **Intelsat and SES**: SES acquired Intelsat for $5bn, aiming to maintain investment grade credit metrics and return cash to shareholders. * **Satcom Market**: Expected to grow rapidly, with lower orbits (MEO and LEO) showing particularly high growth rates. * **Starlink**: Challenging legacy operators in Aviation and Maritime markets. Payments * **FIS and Fiserv**: Both companies saw robust earnings in 2024, with outlook upgrades and strong cash flow generation. * **FIS**: Completed sale of 55% stake in Worldpay, with proceeds designated for debt reduction. * **Fiserv**: Continued to reduce leverage while investing in growth and generating strong cash flow. * **Digital Payments**: Expected to drive growth in payments industry, with mobile wallets and real-time payments increasing. Equipment Makers * **Ericsson and Nokia**: Both companies saw improved performance in 2024, with Ericsson focusing on cost actions and Nokia on restructuring plans. * **RAN Demand**: Expected to remain soft in 2025, with investment needs underpinning the equipment sector in the mid/longer term. * **AI and Cloud**: Expected to drive demand for higher capacity, lower latency, denser, more resilient, and more energy efficient digital networks. IT Services and Software * **SAP**: Upgraded to Overweight, with strong positioning in the market, good operational leverage, and robust growth prospects from cloud and Gen-AI streams. * **Capgemini**: Downgraded revenue growth expectations for the remainder of the year, but expected to return to organic growth in 2025. * **Gartner**: Worldwide software spending expected to grow +14% to $1.23tn in 2025, with IT services expected to increase +9.4% to $1.73tn. Media * **Omnicom**: Merged with Interpublic, creating the largest advertising holding company and a stronger competitor. * **ITV**: Potential takeover candidate, with strong balance sheet and low leverage, but facing strategic uncertainties and muted earnings in 2025. * **Bertelsmann**: Continues to exhibit a steady craving for M&A, with investments in Penguin Random House and BMG. * **Netflix**: Initiated with an Overweight recommendation, with strong competitive positioning and ongoing top-line growth supported by operational leverage benefits.
China Property Weekly Wrap_ Week 51 Wrap - Primary sales continued to improve but secondary moderated further in volume and s...
-· 2024-12-24 07:52
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Horizon Robotics (9660.HK)_ Journey 6 to diversify customer base; J6E_ J6M mass production in 2025E; Buy
Horwath HTL· 2024-12-24 07:52
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/ ...
US Machinery Tariffs 2.0
Tapdata· 2024-12-24 07:52
US Machinery J P M O R G A N See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price ch ...
Cambricon (.SS)_ AI investment in China to support growth; Neutral
AIRPO· 2024-12-24 07:52
Company and Industry Key Points 1. **Company Overview**: Cambricon is a leading Chinese AI chipset supplier. The company focuses on AI chipsets for various applications, including intelligent cluster systems for governments and autonomous driving chips. [44] 2. **Revenue Growth**: Goldman Sachs expects Cambricon's revenue to grow by 4%, 9%, and 16% in 2025E-2027E, driven by ongoing demand from government projects and the widening applications of AI technology. [5] 3. **Valuation**: Goldman Sachs uses a discounted EV/EBITDA methodology to derive a target price of Rmb538.0 for Cambricon. The target EV/EBITDA multiple is based on peers' trading EV/EBITDA vs. forward-year fundamentals. [2, 56] 4. **Key Risks**: The key risks identified include weaker/stronger-than-expected government projects, competition in AI chips and accelerators, slower/faster-than-expected local foundry supplies, slower/faster-than-expected expansion to non-government projects, and the company's addition to the US Entity List in December 2022. [3] 5. **M&A Rank**: Cambricon has an M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability (0%-15%) of being acquired. [14] 6. **Market Cap**: Cambricon's market cap is Rmb281.6bn ($38.6bn) as of December 2024. [45] 7. **Enterprise Value**: Cambricon's enterprise value is Rmb280.5bn ($38.4bn) as of December 2024. [45] 8. **Beta**: Cambricon's beta is 1.3. [23] 9. **Risk-Free Rate**: The risk-free rate is 3.0%. [23] 10. **Market Risk Premium**: The market risk premium is 6.5%. [23] 11. **Revenue Breakdown**: Cambricon's revenue breakdown by region is 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [27] 12. **Revenue Breakdown by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue breakdown by segment includes 63% AI chips (government projects), 57% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 13. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 14. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54] 15. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 16. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54] 17. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 18. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54] 19. **Revenue Growth by Segment**: Cambricon's revenue growth by segment includes 57% AI chips (government projects), 40% other segments, and 40% other segments. [54] 20. **Revenue Growth by Region**: Cambricon's revenue growth by region includes 49% global, 34% Greater China, and 17% other regions. [54]
Telecom Services Hardware & Networking Read-Through Data Center Interconnect and Fiber-to-the-Home Commentary
-· 2024-12-24 07:52
North America Equity Research 23 December 2024 Within we highlight data center interconnect, transport, optical, and fiber-to-thehome commentary from Hardware & Networking companies and other vendors during the most recent earnings cycle as well as the recent J.P. Morgan Hardware, Networking & Semis Bus Tour hosted by J.P. Morgan Hardware and Networking Analyst Samik Chatterjee. Telecom Services, Cable & Satellite Sebastiano C Petti AC (1-212) 622-8529 sebastiano.c.petti@jpmorgan.com Jerome Darling (1-212) ...