Key Points Industry Overview 1. **Cautious on Broader Macro Backdrop**: The report expresses cautious optimism on the broader macroeconomic backdrop, citing lower interest rates, the Trump presidency, GLP-1 nervousness, and generalist exits as potential headwinds for the BioPharma sector. 2. **Positive on Fundamentals**: Despite the cautious macro outlook, the report remains optimistic on the fundamentals of the BioPharma sector, highlighting the potential for stock selection and product-driven catalysts. 3. **Smid-Biotech Turnaround**: The report notes a potential turnaround in sentiment for Smid-Biotech, driven by a more deal-friendly administration and the approaching major patent cliffs. Key Company Picks 1. **Large Cap Pharma**: - **Eli Lilly (Buy; PT: $1,100)**: Top pick due to its leadership in GLP-1 and potential for oral GLP-1 orfoglipron to drive outperformance. - **Merck (Buy; PT: $120)**: Positive outlook following the valuation reset from Gardasil weakness, with upside potential from Keytruda, Winrevair, and Capvaxive. - **BBIO (Buy; PT: $62)**: Unique diversified Smid cap biotech with three pivotal readouts expected in mid-late '25. - **SRPT (Buy; PT: $188)**: Potential for Elevidys DMD trajectory to beat expectations and LGMD to receive more credit. - **VRTX (Buy; PT: $586)**: Poised for strong continued execution and growth from base CF business and increasing diversification across pain and pipeline. - **PTCT (Buy; PT: $71)**: Important catalysts from PKU PDUFA and Huntington's Disease program. - **ARVN (Buy; PT: $74)**: Ph3 VERITAC-2 topline data for vepdegestrant in metastatic breast cancer could support significant upside. 2. **Smid Biotech & Spec Pharma**: - **UTHR (Buy; PT: $475)**: Upside potential from IPF read-outs in 2H25. - **NBIX (Buy; PT: $162)**: Crenessity ramp could indicate a multi-bn$ peak sales opportunity. - **LEGN (Buy; PT: $65)**: Attractive valuation and potential upside from Carvykti. - **MRUS (Buy; PT: $72)**: Upside potential from peto+Keytruda update in head and neck cancer and further indication expansion in colorectal cancer. - **IDYA (Buy; PT: $50)**: Multiple de-risking clinical updates from synthetic lethality programs in 2025. - **JANX (Buy; PT: $69)**: High M&A interests and upside from JANX008 clinical updates in EGFR+ solid tumor. Key Themes 1. **Trump's Impact on BioPharma**: The report discusses the potential impact of President-elect Trump's policies on the BioPharma sector, including drug pricing, FDA regulation, and healthcare reform. 2. **Patent Cliff and M&A**: The report highlights the impending patent cliff and the potential for increased M&A activity as companies seek to replenish their pipelines. 3. **Biotech Survival of the Fittest**: The report discusses the challenges facing Biotech companies, including regulatory/policy uncertainty, positioning, and M&A activity. 4. **Commercial Biopharma Diversification**: The report emphasizes the importance of diversification for commercial-stage biopharma companies, particularly those with core assets facing patent cliffs or terminal value decline. 5. **IRA and Drug Pricing**: The report discusses the potential impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on drug pricing and Medicare Part D reform. Conclusion The report provides a comprehensive overview of the BioPharma sector, highlighting key themes, company picks, and potential risks and opportunities. The cautious macro outlook is offset by positive fundamentals and potential for stock selection and product-driven catalysts.

Summary of Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care Conference Call Industry Overview - The hospital industry is expected to maintain strong fundamentals heading into 2025, with a stabilized labor market and reduced contract labor spending [1][2] - Volume growth is projected to remain above historical averages, driven by Medicaid supplemental payments and cost inflation adjustments in governmental and commercial rates [1][10] Key Points Hospital Fundamentals - Labor market stabilization has led to a significant decrease in contract labor spending, with full-time wage growth normalizing [1] - Professional fee inflation has slowed, although certain specialties may still face pressure [1][2] - Same facility adjusted admissions increased by 3.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, down from 5.8% in the same period of 2023, but still above the long-term average of 2-3% [6][10] Policy Environment - The new administration has created policy uncertainty, but major negative changes affecting hospital finances are not expected [2][21] - The expiration of enhanced exchange subsidies at the end of 2025 is viewed as the most significant potential policy change, with manageable impacts anticipated [3][22] - Hospital stocks may experience volatility due to ongoing discussions of various proposals in Congress [2][23] Investment Opportunities - High-quality hospital stocks such as HCA, THC, and UHS are seen as attractive investments due to their strong growth prospects [4] - HCA is expected to achieve 3-4% same facility adjusted admissions growth in 2025, driven by exchange enrollment growth [10][11] Pricing Trends - Net revenue per adjusted admission increased by 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to 0.4% growth in the same period of 2023 [8] - Medicare and Medicaid rate increases for 2025 are projected at 2.9%, which is higher than the typical range [12] Labor Trends - Professional fees have seen a deceleration in growth from 20-30% in 2023 to 10-15% in 2024, with expectations for stabilization in 2025 [15] - Contract labor usage has decreased significantly, with average salaries and wages as a percentage of revenue dropping from 44.9% in 2023 to 43.7% in 2024 [18][20] Medicaid Supplemental Payments - Medicaid Directed Payment Program (DPP) payments are expected to continue benefiting hospitals, with significant increases in funding anticipated [30][32] - UHS estimates an annual benefit of $40-$50 million from the expiration of subsidies, translating to approximately 1.8% of consolidated adjusted EBITDA [28] Exchange Subsidies - Enhanced subsidies on ACA healthcare exchanges are set to expire at the end of 2025, which could lead to a decline in enrollment and impact hospital revenues [24][25] - Exchange enrollment has been a significant tailwind for hospitals, as these plans typically reimburse closer to commercial rates [25][26] Conclusion - The hospital industry is positioned for continued growth despite potential policy changes and economic challenges, with specific companies like HCA, THC, and UHS highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their solid fundamentals and growth prospects [4][10]

January 7, 2025 09:01 PM GMT China Industrials | Asia Pacific 2025 Outlook: Cycle Bottom; Focus on Operations Industrial cycle could remain L-shaped amid deflation and tariff pressure, with intense competition. Macro policy and company operations are key factors for stock selection. Shuanghuan is our new Top Pick, we also like the leading companies in sub-sectors. Key Takeaways Manufacturing capex cycle to stay L-shaped in 2025: We anticipate mild growth (0-2% y-y) in automation market in 2025, with continu ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Americas Sustainability** sector, particularly in the context of **decarbonization** and **renewable energy** initiatives as of January 2025 [9][11][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Decarbonization Goals**: UBS is actively seeking investment opportunities in the clean energy and decarbonization space, emphasizing companies that are rated as "Buy" and have significant earnings growth tied to decarbonization efforts [9][10]. - **Demand for Renewables**: Despite uncertainties regarding policies and tax credits, demand for utility-scale renewables is expected to remain high due to corporate sustainability targets and a backlog of projects [9][10]. - **Pricing Environment**: As demand for renewables outpaces supply, a challenging pricing environment for consumers is anticipated, leading to increased investments in efficiency measures [9][10]. - **Utilities Focus**: The report highlights utilities that are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for carbon-free energy, including companies like Constellation Energy Corporation and NextEra Energy, which are major players in the clean energy market [9][12]. - **Nuclear Energy**: Existing nuclear assets are expected to remain operational longer than initially planned, necessitating capital expenditure upgrades. There is a potential for a nuclear renaissance driven by data center demand and corporate commitments to low-carbon energy sources [9][54]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Data Center Demand**: The growth of data centers is projected to drive a 3% to 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for load growth in key markets, which could lead to peak conditions defined by a sub-15% reserve margin [29][45]. - **Corporate Renewable Commitments**: Major corporations like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are committing to 100% renewable power, significantly influencing the demand for utility-scale solar projects [45]. - **Investment in Water Management**: The report indicates a growing focus on water management due to aging infrastructure and regulations, which may present investment opportunities in the water economy [71]. - **Legislative Environment**: The impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on job growth and the potential for bipartisan support for renewable initiatives are discussed, highlighting the evolving political landscape affecting the energy sector [62]. Current Decarb Universe - A list of companies with significant exposure to decarbonization efforts is provided, including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Trane Technologies (TT), and First Solar (FSLR), among others [10][12][79]. Conclusion - The report underscores the critical role of decarbonization in shaping the future of the energy sector, with a strong emphasis on renewable energy, nuclear power, and the influence of corporate commitments on market dynamics. The evolving landscape presents both opportunities and challenges for investors in the sustainability space [9][54][62].

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Global Research Global Semiconductor SIA November Data: Non-Memory Flattish, DRAM Sets A Record November well above normal seasonal Total semiconductor sales increased 10.8% M/M in November, beating 10-yr and 5-yr seasonal averages by almost 10 and 8 percentage points, respectively. Ex-Memory revenue stayed fairly stable and modestly above seasonal average growth rate. MPU, Analog and Logic all posted flattish monthly revenue, with MPU and Logic larg ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | M 本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Foundation | | January 8, 2025 08:50 AM GMT | | | | Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Kristal Ji | Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ | | | Equity Strategist | | | | Flows & Positioning Guide | Kristal.Ji@morganstanley.com Daniel K Blake | +65 6834-6949 | | Equity Strategist | | | | Daniel.Blake@morganstanley.com | | +65 6834-6597 | EM weekly flows – Outflows continued, led by China an ...

Industry Overview * **Internet Sector Performance**: The internet sector experienced a flat performance last week, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices remaining unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1%. Notable outperformers included SNAP (+9%), CHWY (+6%), UBER (+6%), and LYFT (+7%). * **Valuation Multiples**: The valuation multiples for AMZN, GOOGL, and META were 34x, 21x, and 23x, respectively, for 2025 EPS, compared to TTM averages of -7%, -1%, and flat, respectively. * **Sector Outlook**: Morgan Stanley maintains an attractive outlook for the internet sector in North America. Company Analysis * **Digital Media**: The digital media sector saw significant growth in EV/EBITDA multiples, with an average increase of 40% when treating SBC as cash. Notable companies in this sector include BMBL, CRTO, META, GOOGL, IAS, KIND, MTCH, PINS, SSTK, TTD, DV, RDDT, and YELP. * **eCommerce/Marketplace**: The eCommerce sector also experienced a notable increase in EV/EBITDA multiples, with an average increase of 22% when treating SBC as cash. Notable companies in this sector include AMZN, CHWY, EBAY, ETSY, FIGS, PTON, RVLV, WW, CART, DASH, and LYFT. * **Shared Economy/Rideshare**: The shared economy/rideshare sector saw a moderate increase in EV/EBITDA multiples, with an average increase of 5% when treating SBC as cash. Notable companies in this sector include CART, DASH, LYFT, and UBER. * **Gaming/Mobile App**: The gaming/mobile app sector experienced a significant increase in EV/EBITDA multiples, with an average increase of 26% when treating SBC as cash. Notable companies in this sector include APP, EA, PLTK, RBLX, TTWO, and U. * **Travel**: The travel sector saw a moderate increase in EV/EBITDA multiples, with an average increase of 42% when treating SBC as cash. Notable companies in this sector include ABNB, BKNG, DASH, EXPE, LYFT, UBER, and Z. * **Real Estate Tech**: The real estate tech sector saw a significant increase in EV/EBITDA multiples, with an average increase of 42% when treating SBC as cash. Notable companies in this sector include COMP, Z, OPEN, and RE Tech. Valuation Methodology * **EV/EBITDA Multiples**: The report utilizes EV/EBITDA multiples to value companies in the internet sector, comparing them to historical averages and industry benchmarks. * **EV/Sales Multiples**: The report also considers EV/Sales multiples as a valuation metric, comparing them to historical averages and industry benchmarks. Conclusion The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the internet sector in North America, highlighting key trends, company performance, and valuation metrics. The attractive outlook for the sector is supported by strong growth in EV/EBITDA multiples across various sub-sectors.

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 7 January 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research U.S. Software Latest Enterprise AI Survey Summary In this third iteration of our enterprise AI survey, we again leveraged the UBS Evidence Lab data team to survey IT execs at 125 organizations about their AI plans at the chip, cloud infrastructure, model, application software, data and security layers, with a focus on incremental changes in feedback from our previous May 2024 survey (see report here). T ...

Summary of Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 3692.HK - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Market Cap**: RMB 90,484 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$16.22 - **Price Target**: HK$24.00, representing a 48% upside potential [5][5][5] Key Takeaways Sales and Financial Performance - Sales promotional activities have significantly recovered from the lows experienced in late 2023, with management maintaining a double-digit sales growth target for fiscal year 2024 (F24) [1][1][1] - A dividend payout of over 35% is projected for 2024, with potential sustainability into 2025 [1][1][1] Product and Pipeline Updates - **Ameile**: Contract extended with an approximate 8% price reduction [2][2][2] - **Loxenatide**: Experienced a higher price cut, referencing the price for semaglutide; noted for its high potency and low side effects for diabetes, but not suitable for obesity [2][2][2] - **Pipeline Highlights**: - **HS-20093 (B7H3 ADC)**: Granted two Breakthrough Therapy Designations (BTDs) for second-line osteosarcoma and relapsed/refractory small cell lung cancer (r/r SCLC); pivotal trials to start in Q4 2025 [3][3][3] - **HS-20089 (B7H4 ADC)**: Ongoing Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancers in China; Phase 1 data expected in 2025 with pivotal trials planned for Q4 2025 [3][3][3] - **HS-10374 (TYK2)**: In Phase 3 for psoriasis [3][3][3] - **HS-20094 (GIP/GLP-1R)**: In Phase 3 for overweight, aiming for a launch in 2027 [3][3][3] - **HS-10501 (oral GLP-1R)**: Recently entered Phase 1 for overweight [3][3][3] Financial Metrics - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December 2023 - **Revenue (Rmb million)**: - 2023: 10,104 - 2024e: 12,149 - 2025e: 12,502 - 2026e: 14,782 [5][5][5] - **EPS (Rmb)**: - 2023: 0.54 - 2024e: 0.68 - 2025e: 0.58 - 2026e: 0.70 [5][5][5] - **EBITDA (Rmb million)**: - 2023: 3,101 - 2024e: 4,014 - 2025e: 3,036 - 2026e: 3,655 [5][5][5] Valuation Methodology - The price target is derived using a discounted cash flow methodology, assuming a WACC of 8.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [8][8][8] Risks Upside Risks - Earlier-than-expected product launches [10][10][10] - Increased pace of industry growth [10][10][10] Downside Risks - Continued industry slowdown and significant price cuts [10][10][10] - Unexpected competition in central nervous system (CNS) and oncology sectors [10][10][10] - Major pipeline failures [10][10][10] Conclusion Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd is positioned for growth with a strong sales recovery and a robust pipeline of products. The company maintains an attractive outlook with a significant upside potential in its stock price, supported by strategic product developments and a solid financial foundation. However, potential risks from market dynamics and competition should be monitored closely.