Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Inflation Trends**: Global headline inflation in May remained stable at 2%, marking four consecutive months at historically normal levels. Core inflation slightly decreased to 2.4%, still above pre-pandemic levels, primarily due to elevated services inflation [1][5][6]. Core Insights - **US Inflation Expectations**: Limited tariff-related increases have been observed in US inflation, but survey evidence indicates that inflationary pressures are expected to rise as tariff impacts materialize. The expectation is for US inflation to increase due to these pressures [1][5]. - **Global Economic Conditions**: Below-trend growth and low oil prices, despite geopolitical challenges, are anticipated to keep inflation in regions outside the US contained [1][5]. - **Expansion of Inflation Monitor**: The latest global inflation monitor has been expanded to include US import prices, providing a broader view of inflation dynamics [1][5]. Important Data Points - **Core Inflation Rates**: The core inflation rate for developed markets (DM) is at 2.4%, while emerging markets (EM) excluding China show a core inflation rate of 2.6% [1][5]. - **PPI Trends**: The Producer Price Index (PPI) for global DM is at -0.8%, while EM stands at 1.7%, indicating differing inflationary pressures across regions [1][5]. - **Services Inflation**: Services inflation remains high at 4.7% for DM, with EM ex-China at 2.8% [1][5]. Additional Insights - **US Import Prices**: The report highlights US import inflation, which is currently at 0.2% overall and 1.3% excluding food and fuels, indicating a nuanced view of import price pressures [1][28][29]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical landscape continues to influence inflation dynamics, particularly in relation to oil prices and trade tariffs [1][5]. Conclusion - The conference call provided a comprehensive overview of global inflation trends, with a specific focus on the US market. The insights into core inflation rates, PPI trends, and the impact of geopolitical factors are crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and making informed investment decisions.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.

July 1, 2025 09:52 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America CoTD: Shifting Global Capex Trends Provide US Reshoring Evidence Chart of the Day (CoTD) highlights charts that tie into latest investor conversations, are timely for the macro + company events, or just ones that we find interesting. Exhibit 1: Change in Share of Global Capital Formation, 2023 vs 2018 bps (i.e., capex - building, machinery & infrastructure) - The US has taken ~200 bps share of global investment since 2018, snapping decades of share lo ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research July 2025 Asia Deep Dive: Akeso & Innovent China Healthcare Research Yang HuangAC, PhD (852) 2800 3812 yang.huang@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited Eric Zhao, CFA (86-21) 6106 6256 eric.zhao@jpmorgan.com SAC Registration Number: S1730524050001 J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company Limited Derek Choi, CPA (852) 2800-8744 derek.c.choi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P. Morgan Broking ( ...

Scott Silver - Specialist Sales - European TMT AC (44-20) 7134-0412 scott.silver@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Europe Specialist Sales 01 July 2025 J P M O R G A N ASML Buyside Survey Hi, We are conducting a buyside survey of investor expectations ahead of results on Wed 16thof July. Let me know your thoughts and will share the results next week. Click here to take the survey. Best, Scott European Tech Hardware & Payments Sandeep Deshpande AC (44-20) 7134-5276 sandeep.s.deshpande@jpmorgan.com J.P. ...

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Asia Pacific Equity Research 01 July 2025 China SMid Insurance Key investor feedback post the initiation; ZhongAn remains top investor focus See page 4 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl ...

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