自2021年第二季度起，国内房地产市场便在持续的楼市调控政策下步入了显著的调整期。曾经一度攀升 至每平方米1.1万元的全国平均房价，如今已回落至9526元，跌幅高达15%。国家统计局的最新数据显 示，截至今年6月，在70座重点监测城市中，二手房价格倒退至两年前水平的城市多达34个，更有27个 城市房价低于三年前，6个城市房价更是回到了五年前的水平，其中牡丹江的房价甚至跌回了15年前。 其次，小产权房的处境也日益艰难。过去，人们之所以选择购买或持有小产权房，除了其价格相对较低 的优势外，还抱有一丝"转正"的期望。然而，如今这种希望已然渺茫。其主要原因在于，小产权房的质 量参差不齐，房屋安全隐患令人担忧。此外，小产权房多为未经批准的私自搭建，其性质已严重违反国 家相关规定，故而根本不具备合法转正的可能性。因此，小产权房在未来的交易过程中，将面临巨大的 出售阻力，极难找到买家。 第三类，城市周边偏远地区的楼房。此前，许多购房者倾向于选择城市周边地区的房产，主要看中其相 对较低的价格。然而，这些地区的房产往往存在配套设施不完善、交通不便利等问题。更重要的是，在 房价普遍下跌的市场环境中，这类房产的跌幅往往比市中心地段 ...

确定了！高层住宅"贫民窟化"风险暴露，专家预测未来20年将是关键期，买房人该如何选择！ 最近网上关于高层住宅未来会不会变成贫民窟的讨论，可以说是沸沸扬扬。说实话，这个话题戳中了很多 人的痛点。 就像一位网友说的："花了半辈子积蓄买的高层，结果20年后可能变成没人要的破楼。"这话听着扎心，但 现实也是如此。 我们确实都在赌一个不确定的未来 说"我们都在赌"，真的一点都不夸张。买高层住宅的人，其实就是在赌这栋楼能不能撑到自己老了。 你想啊，现在新建的高层住宅，看起来光鲜亮丽，但20年后呢？电梯老化、外墙脱落、管道堵塞，这些问 题一个接一个冒出来。最关键的是，维修这些设施需要的钱可不是小数目。 据说一部电梯换下来就要几十万，一栋30层的楼有4部电梯，光换电梯就得上百万。这钱从哪来？维修基 金？别开玩笑了，很多小区的维修基金早就不够用了。 一方是业主觉得花了钱没享受到服务，另一方确是物业公司说成本太高干不下去。这种恶性循环下去，小 区环境只会越来越差。 网友@某某的留言很真实："我们小区物业已经换了三家了，现在又要换。每次换物业，小区就乱一阵子， 垃圾没人收，电梯没人修。" 拆迁改造？想得太美了 很多人觉得，大不了等 ...

近年来，购房者的置业观念悄然转变，多层住宅正逐渐取代高层住宅成为市场新宠。贝壳研究院的数据清晰地 反映了这一趋势：2018年至2020年间，选择多层住宅的购房者比例从18.5%飙升至29.8%，而高层住宅的购买比 例则从57.8%大幅下滑至36.5%。 其次是经过旧城改造的老旧小区。这些老房子通常占据着城市中心或交通便利的地段，周边配套设施完善。经 过旧改，房屋焕然一新，并加装了电梯，无论是居住舒适度还是性价比，都具有相当的吸引力，对于购房家庭 而言是不错的选择。 这种转变并非偶然，而是源于高层住宅自身难以回避的诸多弊端。与多层住宅相比，高层住宅的公摊面积通常 更大，实际使用空间相对缩水。此外，高层住宅容积率较高，楼间距往往较小，直接影响了室内通风和采光效 果，同时也导致小区内空间拥挤，停车困难。更令人担忧的是，一旦发生火灾或地震等紧急情况，电梯停运将 严重阻碍居民逃生和救援工作的展开。 此后，住建部、科技部、工信部等十五部门又联合印发《关于加强县城绿色低碳建设的意见》，进一步规定县 城新建住宅应以6层为主，6层及以下住宅建筑面积占比应不低于70%，且最高不得超过18层。 首先是新建多层住宅。这类住宅的优势显 ...

最近，刘丽为卖房的事发愁。 另一套是低层小洋房2楼，外墙有点斑驳，可一梯两户住着踏实。 其实，这个问题，不是刘丽一个人的迷茫。 现在很多人都有套高层，可很少有人想过，三十年后，这些戳破天的高楼会变成啥样。 今天我们就好好谈谈这个热点话题： 高层住宅会不会沦为"贫民窟"？ 其实我们每个人都在赌，赌自己不会是最后那个接盘的。 她有2套房，每个月有6000多元房贷要还，最近失业了，没了收入，所以想卖掉一套。 现在愁的是，两套房摆面前，不知该卖哪套留哪套。 一套是超高层的34楼，站在阳台能望到江景； 1 血泪先例：高楼变贫民窟，早有前车之鉴 你别觉得"贫民窟"是危言耸听，这事儿在欧美早演了几十年。 二战后，英国、法国都疯了似的盖高楼，伦敦的罗南角公寓当年多风光，玻璃幕墙、电梯入户，是中产的标配。 结果呢？ 不到二十年，电梯锈成废铁，水管漏得满地水，楼道里全是涂鸦，最后1968年直接被爆破拆除，成了城市笑话。 再看咱们身边，香港的公屋、新加坡的组屋，管理够规范了吧？ 可去年香港媒体曝光，沙田一套30年楼龄的高层，电梯一个月坏8次，七旬老人爬22楼买菜，摔得腿骨骨折。 深圳关外的老高层，二十年前是"豪宅"，现在房价比周边 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of the 80-meter height limit for residential buildings will significantly alter the value logic of high-rise properties, moving away from the previous trend of "the higher, the better" [3][4] - The new regulation, effective from May 1, 2025, establishes a national standard that limits new residential buildings to a maximum height of 80 meters, with local variations in enforcement [3][4] - High-rise properties in core urban areas are becoming scarce and may retain value, while ordinary high-rises face increased maintenance costs and reduced liquidity [4][5] Group 2 - The market is shifting towards low-density, small high-rise buildings, emphasizing quality of living, as developers adapt to new consumer preferences [5][6] - New housing standards require improved living conditions, such as higher ceiling heights and better sound insulation, reflecting a change in buyer priorities from mere occupancy to quality of life [5][6] - Buyers are advised to prioritize certain criteria when purchasing homes, such as selecting lower floors, considering property density and management quality, and avoiding older high-rises with high maintenance costs [7][8]

消费降级后搬去老小区，我终于摆脱了高层住宅的 "精致牢笼" 去年把住了三年的高层精装房卖掉时，身边朋友都觉得我疯了 —— 放着电梯入户、人脸识别的新小区不 住，偏偏搬去房龄 15 年的老小区。可住到现在我才明白，那些被吐槽 "老旧破" 的老小区，藏着比高层住宅 舒服太多的生活真相，尤其是钱包和心里的那份踏实，是新小区再精致也给不了的。更别说那些浸透在日常 里的细碎体验，像是裹着烟火气的小糖，越品越甜。 一、选老小区别瞎选，15 年房龄是 "黄金线"，住得省心才是真 先说明白，不是所有老小区都值得住。我之前也看过一套 30 年房龄的老房子，楼道墙皮掉得露出水泥，踩 上去簌簌往下掉渣；水管一开水就泛黄，接半盆水得沉淀半天才能用；下雨天天花板还漏雨，墙角洇出一大 片黑霉斑，这种 "真?老破小" 再便宜也不能碰。 但 15 年左右房龄的老小区，简直是 "性价比之王"，住起来特别省心。我现在住的小区是 2010 年建的，当 时开发商用的建材很实在，墙体厚实得很 —— 以前在高层，隔壁晚上看电视声音开大点都能隐约听见，现 在我在家练吉他，楼下邻居碰到我还说 "没听见吵，你弹得还挺好听"。而且基础设施没怎么老化，水电燃 气 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shifted from a period of guaranteed profits to one where caution is essential, with predictions of a downward trend in housing prices over the next three years [2][4][10] Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices are expected to decline gradually until 2027, with a cumulative drop of around 10% anticipated [4][5] - The saturation of housing demand is evident, as many families have already purchased their first or improved homes, leading to a supply surplus [5][6] - The declining birth rate will further reduce the number of potential homebuyers, weakening the upward pressure on prices [5] Group 2: Second-Hand Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is likely to experience a "deep freeze," with a significant increase in listings and difficulty in finding buyers [6][7] - The core issue in the second-hand market is the oversupply compared to demand, with many sellers unable to find buyers even at reduced prices [6][7] - The aging of properties will further decrease their attractiveness, leading to potential long-term challenges for sellers [6][7] Group 3: Property Value Differentiation - A pronounced differentiation in property values is expected, with high-rise buildings facing significant depreciation risks, particularly those over 25 or 30 stories [7][8] - In contrast, high-quality properties, such as those in desirable school districts or well-equipped communities, are likely to maintain their value due to their inherent demand and scarcity [8][9] - Buyers are advised to prioritize properties with strong value retention, while owners of high-rise buildings should consider selling to avoid future depreciation [8][9] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - It is advised to refrain from purchasing property unless driven by essential needs, given the current market uncertainties [9][10] - Owners of high-rise properties should seek to sell as soon as possible to mitigate potential losses from declining values [9][10] - Individuals should focus on maintaining financial stability and prioritize essential living expenses over real estate investments [9][10]

Core Insights - There is a significant shift in homebuyer preferences from high-rise buildings to multi-story residences, with the proportion of buyers choosing multi-story homes increasing from 18.5% in 2018 to 29.8% in 2020, while high-rise purchases dropped from 57.8% to 36.5% [1][3] Group 1: Reasons for Preference Shift - High-rise buildings typically have larger shared areas, reducing actual usable space, while multi-story homes offer better cost-effectiveness due to smaller shared areas [3] - High-rise buildings often have higher plot ratios, leading to narrower spacing between buildings, which negatively impacts ventilation and lighting [3] - The risk of emergencies, such as fires or earthquakes, poses significant challenges for high-rise residents, particularly if elevators fail [3] - The difficulty and high costs associated with the demolition of high-rise buildings, especially in lower-tier cities, may lead to a decline in their value over time [5] Group 2: Government Actions - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Development and Reform Commission have issued guidelines to limit the construction of super-tall buildings, with a focus on restricting new buildings over 250 meters and requiring thorough justification for buildings over 100 meters [5][6] - A joint opinion from multiple government departments emphasizes that new residential buildings in county towns should primarily be six stories or lower, with a minimum of 70% of new residential area being six stories or below [8] - New regulations require that any new super-tall buildings in cities with populations under 3 million must undergo strict approval processes, indicating a significant reduction in the number of new high-rise constructions [10] Group 3: Future Housing Trends - The demand for newly constructed multi-story residences is expected to rise due to their advantages, including lower shared areas, better cost-effectiveness, improved green space, and enhanced safety [11] - Renovated older neighborhoods are also gaining popularity, as these properties often have prime locations and upgraded amenities, making them attractive to homebuyers [11]

为了提振低迷的市场，各地纷纷出台政策试图松绑。据不完全统计，已有23座城市发布了"限跌令"，更 有城市取消了"限购令"，并下调房贷利率。一些城市甚至直接对购房者进行现金补贴。然而，这些举措 并未能有效扭转房地产市场的颓势。 城郊偏远楼房： 曾经，城市周边地区的房产因其相对低廉的价格而备受青睐。然而，这些区域往往配 套设施不完善，交通不便。在房价下跌时，城郊偏远地区的房产往往比市中心房产跌幅更大，甚至难以 找到买家。因此，城市周边偏远地区的房产未来或将成为无人问津的"烫手山芋"。 楼市的寒意也同样传递到了开发商的销售业绩上。今年上半年，全国商品房销售额仅为6.6万亿元，与 去年全年18.1万亿元的销售额相比，差距悬殊。时间过半，销售额却不足去年全年的40%。2022年1-7 月，中国房地产企业销售业绩排行榜显示，TOP100房企的销售额同比大幅下降47.3%。 高层住宅： 过去备受追捧的高层住宅，如今却暴露出诸多弊端。首先，高层住宅的公摊面积远大于多 层住宅，通常在25?0%之间，而多层住宅仅为10?5%。这意味着购房者需要承担更多公摊面积上的物业 费和供暖费。其次，高层住宅在发生火灾或地震等灾害时，住户逃生难 ...

Core Insights - The domestic real estate market is facing significant challenges, with a notable increase in the number of cities experiencing declines in both new and second-hand residential property prices [1][3] Market Trends - In August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that out of 70 major cities, 50 saw a month-on-month decline in new residential prices, while 56 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, marking an increase of 10 and 5 cities respectively compared to the previous month [1] - Year-on-year, 49 cities reported a decrease in new residential prices, and 61 cities in second-hand prices, indicating a persistent downward trend in the housing market [1] Buyer Behavior - The era of speculative real estate investment is over, with increasing risks for investors. However, first-time homebuyers with genuine needs, such as marriage and education, still view purchasing property as essential [3] - The continuous reduction in mortgage rates has significantly lowered the cost of homeownership for these first-time buyers [3] Expert Recommendations - Industry experts advise first-time buyers to follow the principle of "buy now, buy low, and avoid distant properties" [4][6] - "Buy now" emphasizes purchasing ready-to-move-in homes rather than off-plan properties, allowing buyers to assess quality and avoid potential risks associated with unfinished projects [4] - "Buy low" suggests opting for low-rise buildings over high-rise ones, as they typically have lower shared areas, better safety features, and greater convenience [6] - "Avoid distant properties" highlights the risks associated with purchasing in remote areas, where infrastructure may be lacking and property values could decline more sharply in a downturn [6]