Core Viewpoint - The new housing market in July is experiencing a seasonal decline in transactions, with differentiated expectations across various cities [3][34]. Group 1: Market Overview - Since 2025, the overall real estate market has shown signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with a traditional "small spring" in March-April, followed by sustained market activity in May-June [3]. - In the first half of July, the average sales rate for projects in 30 key cities was 30%, reflecting an 11 percentage point decrease from June 2025 and a 5 percentage point increase compared to July 2024 [4][5]. Group 2: City Classification - Cities are categorized into three types based on market performance: 1. Core first and second-tier cities (e.g., Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu) are experiencing a significant decline in sales rates due to the quality of new supply [6]. 2. Weak recovery cities (e.g., Guangzhou, Wuhan, Tianjin) are seeing a notable slowdown in visitor and purchase growth, leading to stable but low customer conversion rates [6]. 3. Cities like Xi'an, Nanjing, and Zhengzhou are facing a decline in customer conversion rates, with a persistent wait-and-see attitude among buyers [6]. Group 3: Performance of Hot Cities - In July, the enthusiasm for new launches in hot cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has decreased, with each city launching fewer than 10 projects [8]. - The sales rate in these cities has dropped by over 20% compared to June, with only Beijing and Hangzhou showing slightly better performance than the previous year [8]. Group 4: Weak Recovery Cities - In cities like Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Wuhan, both visitor and purchase numbers have significantly declined, with Guangzhou experiencing a 17% drop in visitors and a 47% drop in purchases in the first week of July [12][14]. - Despite the decline, Wuhan's sales rate has increased due to the introduction of suitable properties, with a notable decrease in the number of new launches [16]. Group 5: Other Cities - Cities such as Xi'an, Nanjing, and Zhengzhou are witnessing a continuous decline in customer conversion rates, with Xi'an's conversion rate dropping from 6.33% at the end of June to 3.74% [24]. - Nanjing's market heat is also declining, with a significant drop in purchase numbers compared to visitor numbers, leading to a conversion rate of only 4.55% [27]. Group 6: Conclusion - Overall, the new housing market in July is facing a seasonal decline, with insufficient supply and general quality issues contributing to a lack of growth momentum [34]. - Differentiated expectations persist across cities, with hot cities experiencing a significant drop in market enthusiasm, while weak recovery cities show fluctuating trends [34].

Company Insights - CIFI Construction Management has established a presence in over 80 cities [1] - Greentown Management expanded its new entrusted construction projects with a management fee of 5 billion RMB in the first half of the year [1] - Ningxia Zhongfang Construction Management has entered Xining for the first time, signing a high-end residential project on Hailake Road [1] Project Highlights - Happiness Anji has delivered the Shenyang Sujiatun relief project with a total area of 720,000 square meters, where state-owned/government projects account for 51% and re-entrusted projects account for 25% [1] - The company reported a nearly 60% increase in cash collection, a 160% surge in sales, and a simultaneous improvement in profit margins [1] - A project in Suzhou's Wuzhong District aims to transform an old commercial building into a low-density mountain residence, covering an area of approximately 54,000 square meters [2] - A project in Dalian's Jinpu New District will develop high-quality residential products in a prime location, with a total construction area of about 85,000 square meters [2] Financial Performance - Greentown Management's newly expanded entrusted construction projects have a total contracted building area of 19.89 million square meters, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 13.9% [3] - The estimated management fee for these new projects is 5 billion RMB [3] - The total contracted sales area for the non-self-invested properties managed under the "He Sheng" brand is approximately 41,231 square meters, with a contracted sales amount of about 3.736 billion RMB [3] Typical Projects - A project in Taizhou's Luqiao District has a total volume of 184,195 cubic meters, with a winning bid amount of 806 million RMB [6] - A housing project in Qingtian County has a total volume of 295,126 cubic meters, with a winning bid amount of 984 million RMB [6]

Core Viewpoint - Huafa Co., Ltd. has established a systematic framework in the "good housing" sector, supported by ample financial resources, which will enable the company to seize current market opportunities effectively [1][19]. Financing Support - On July 14, Huafa Co., Ltd. announced that its application for issuing convertible bonds has been approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to raise up to 4.8 billion yuan [2]. - Since May, Huafa has launched multiple financing plans, including a 20 billion yuan supply chain asset plan and a 7.82 billion yuan corporate bond, bringing the total planned financing to over 30 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company maintains a strong financial position, with key financial metrics such as a net debt ratio of 86.7%, significantly lower than the industry average of 98.07% [6]. Strategic Focus - Huafa Co., Ltd. focuses on core first- and second-tier cities, with significant sales contributions from cities like Zhuhai, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Chengdu, accounting for over 80% of sales [9]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total sales amount of 50.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, outperforming the average growth rate of the top 10 real estate companies [8]. Product Innovation - The company actively responds to the national "good housing" initiative, launching a "technology + good housing" product system to enhance living quality and experience [17]. - Huafa's projects have received industry recognition, with three projects listed among the top ten works in the first half of 2025, showcasing the company's commitment to high-quality housing [18]. Market Outlook - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of stability, with expectations for improved supply-demand relationships and positive policy signals in the second half of 2025 [19]. - Companies are encouraged to leverage structural opportunities and focus on building high-quality housing to navigate the current market challenges effectively [19].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is expected to see an increase in the number of properties entering the judicial auction market in the second half of the year, which will enhance transaction channels and accelerate property turnover, thereby improving the utilization rate of existing housing and promoting the recovery of the transaction chain between new and second-hand properties [1][5]. Group 1: Auction Volume - The auction volume reached a new high for the year in June, with 32,000 properties listed for auction, representing a 27% month-on-month increase and a 6% year-on-year decrease [3][8]. - The total starting price for the properties was 30.9 billion yuan, up 33% month-on-month, marking the second-highest total for the year [8]. - Seven cities had over 500 properties listed for auction, with Chongqing leading at 1,210 properties, maintaining its position for seven consecutive months [8][9]. Group 2: Transaction Volume - The transaction volume in June was 3,215 properties, reflecting a 31% month-on-month decrease and a 43% year-on-year decrease [12][13]. - Despite the decrease in transaction volume, 70% of the properties were sold at a premium, indicating sustained market confidence [12][17]. - The highest transaction value was for a villa in Shanghai, which sold for 1.09 billion yuan after nine rounds of bidding, achieving a 5.4% premium over the starting price [13]. Group 3: Transaction Rate - The average transaction rate for judicial auction properties in June was 19%, remaining stable month-on-month, indicating that the decline in transaction volume was more due to technical adjustments rather than a decrease in market interest [17][19]. - Shanghai had the highest transaction rate among major cities at 52%, with several other cities exceeding 40% [19]. Group 4: Discount Rate - The average starting discount rate for auctioned properties was 28.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the average discount rate for sold properties was 31.3%, down 1.2 percentage points [23][27]. - The narrowing gap between starting and sold discount rates suggests that buyers are increasingly focusing on non-price factors such as location and property type [23][27].

Key Points - The government continues to implement the construction agency system, with 14 provinces and cities introducing or revising management measures in the first half of 2025 to enhance project management professionalism and investment efficiency [1][8] - In the first half of 2025, urban investment companies accounted for 45% of land acquisition, a slight increase of 4% year-on-year, but a decrease of 5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2][11] - Several leading construction agency companies have deepened their business layout through strategic partnerships, with a focus on government-enterprise cooperation and cross-industry integration [3][14] - The number of construction agency projects awarded in the first half of 2025 reached 260, an increase of 8% compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate has slowed [4][25] Industry Policy - In the first half of 2025, 14 provinces and cities introduced management measures to encourage the implementation of the construction agency system for government projects [7][8] - The political bureau meeting has defined a new phase of "stabilizing the market," which may accelerate the reshuffling of construction agency companies if the current housing policies are implemented [11] Urban Investment Land Acquisition - Urban investment companies participated in land acquisition of over 22 million square meters in the first half of 2025, with a 41% share in the second quarter, reflecting a decrease from the first quarter [2][12] - The decline in the share of urban investment companies indicates a more diversified market participation, with private enterprises beginning to acquire land [12] Corporate Insights - In the first half of 2025, seven construction agency companies formed strategic partnerships with various clients, indicating a trend towards national expansion and diversified cooperation [3][14] - The partnerships focus on enhancing urban functions, covering areas such as planning, infrastructure, and public services, with government resources being leveraged to secure project opportunities [15][18] Key Projects - The Dragon Lake Longzhi project in Chengdu was delivered 40 days ahead of schedule, showcasing effective project management and cost control [20][21] - The project achieved a sales amount of approximately 504 million yuan, with a residential sales rate exceeding 90% [21][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a transformation in the real estate industry towards a "high-quality, low-risk, and sustainable" development model, supported by coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to stabilize the market in the short term and guide long-term growth [1][14]. Summary by Sections Urbanization and Housing Demand - The urbanization rate in China has increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with 940 million people living in urban areas. This urbanization has led to over 150 million new jobs and a stable influx of agricultural migrants into cities, which continues to support housing demand [2][3]. - The gap between the permanent urban population and registered urban population remains significant, indicating ongoing rigid housing demand driven by the urbanization of agricultural migrants [3]. Urban Development Strategy - The recent Central Urban Work Conference outlines a shift from rapid urban growth to stable development, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them. This includes a more human-centered approach and efficient urban development [3][5]. - The development of urban clusters and metropolitan areas is crucial, with a focus on coordinated growth among cities of different sizes, which will shape the real estate market landscape [5]. County-Level Urbanization - A significant portion of county-level cities (over 50%) has an urbanization rate below 60%, indicating substantial room for growth. These areas house 610 million residents, suggesting a strong potential for housing demand as urbanization progresses [6]. Supply-Side Adjustments - The strategy includes optimizing the supply structure by controlling new real estate development land and enhancing the quality of existing urban areas. This involves revitalizing underutilized land and increasing the supply of high-quality residential properties [8][10]. - The government aims to improve housing quality through new regulations, emphasizing safety, comfort, and sustainability in residential construction [12][13]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The focus on "good housing" is expected to stabilize the new housing market and create a new pricing benchmark, leading to a dynamic balance in supply and demand relationships in the real estate market [13][14]. - The article concludes that the ongoing urbanization will continue to support housing demand, with market share likely concentrating in core urban clusters, while high-quality urban renewal efforts will stimulate demand for improved housing [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a transformation in the real estate industry towards a "high-quality, low-risk, and sustainable" development model, supported by coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to stabilize the market in the short term and guide long-term growth [1][14]. Summary by Sections Urbanization and Housing Demand - The urbanization rate in China has increased from 53.1% in 2012 to 67% in 2024, with 940 million people living in urban areas. This urbanization has led to over 150 million new jobs and a stable influx of agricultural migrants into cities, which continues to support housing demand [2][3]. - The gap between the permanent urban population and registered urban population remains significant, indicating ongoing demand for housing driven by the urbanization of agricultural migrants [3]. Urban Development Strategy - The recent Central Urban Work Conference outlines a shift from rapid urban growth to stable development, focusing on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding them. This includes a more human-centered approach and efficient urban development [3][5]. - The conference emphasizes the importance of regional coordination in urban development, particularly in major urban clusters like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [5]. County-Level Urbanization - A significant portion of county-level cities (over 50%) have urbanization rates below 60%, indicating substantial potential for growth and housing demand in these areas, where 610 million residents live with an average urbanization rate of only 44% [6]. Supply-Side Adjustments - The strategy includes optimizing the supply structure by controlling new land supply and enhancing the quality of existing urban areas. This involves revitalizing underutilized land and increasing the supply of high-quality residential properties [8][10]. - The government aims to improve housing quality through new regulations that enhance safety and comfort standards in residential buildings, marking a shift towards providing "good housing" [12][13]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The focus on urban renewal and the improvement of living conditions in older neighborhoods is expected to stimulate demand for improved housing, contributing to a new equilibrium in the real estate market [9][10]. - The article concludes that the ongoing urbanization will continue to support housing demand, with market share likely concentrating in core urban clusters. The coordinated efforts on both supply and demand will help stabilize the market and promote a sustainable development model in the real estate sector [14].

Core Viewpoint - The land supply and demand scale experienced a seasonal decline in the first half of the year, with transaction volume dropping significantly, while the premium rate saw a notable increase, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [1][2]. Supply - The supply of land this week was 3.19 million square meters, a 48% decrease from the previous week, marking a seasonal adjustment in the early half of the year [2]. - Key cities offered 32 plots of residential land with an average plot ratio of 2.04, while cities like Wuxi, Nantong, and Nanjing had average plot ratios not exceeding 1.5 [2]. - A notable plot in Shenzhen's Longhua District was listed with a base price of 1.554 billion yuan and a plot ratio of 3.1, indicating strong demand due to its proximity to transportation and established amenities [2]. Transaction - The transaction area was 2.25 million square meters, down 59% week-on-week, with a total transaction value of 14.5 billion yuan, a 63% decrease [2]. - Shenzhen recorded a high-premium residential land transaction, contributing to an average premium rate increase to 9.2%, returning to the annual average level [2]. High-Premium Transactions - In Shenzhen, a plot in Longhua District was sold for 2.37 billion yuan with a premium rate of 40.74%, reflecting strong competition among developers [3]. - A high-premium residential plot in Qingdao's Laoshan District was sold for 989 million yuan, with a premium rate of 17.78%, indicating robust demand in prime locations [3]. - Dongguan also saw a high-premium land transaction with a 22.1% premium rate, highlighting developers' pursuit of profitable opportunities amid market fluctuations [4]. Key Data - The top five land transactions by total price included Shenzhen's plot at 2.4 billion yuan and Qingdao's at 1 billion yuan, showcasing significant investment interest in these regions [7][9]. - The average floor price for the top transactions ranged from 13,637 yuan to 38,795 yuan per square meter, indicating varying levels of demand and competition across different cities [9].

成交规模波动中改善，价格降幅整体收窄，去库存取得积极成效 ◎ 文 / 马千里 7月15日上午，国家统计局如期发布2025年上半年宏观经济和房地产数据。经济层面，国民经济顶住压 力、迎难而上，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就业形势总体稳定，社会大局保持稳 定。 地产行业方面，各地因城施策出台相关措施推动房地产止跌回稳。从统计数据来看，相关政策措施成效明 显， 上半年房地产虽然有所波动，但总体上还朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 市场交易量同比降幅较2024年 全年有所改善，市场价格降幅整体收窄。对于上半年的房地产行业运行情况，统计局发言人的解读为： "房地产筑底需要一个过程，在筑底和转型阶段相关指标有所起伏波动是正常的，这也需要我们下更大力 度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。" 上半年宏观经济稳中向好 宽松货币政策服务实体经济高质量发展 01 2025年上半年，各地区、部门贯彻中央决策部署，有效实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，国民经济顶住压 力、迎难而上，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就业形势总体稳定，社会大局保持稳 定。具体来看： 第一，GDP增长与预期持平。 初步核算，上半年国内生产总值6605 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable contraction in cash flow management, particularly among private and mixed-ownership enterprises, necessitating a transformation to enhance competitiveness [1][3]. Group 1: Operating Cash Flow - Excluding state-owned enterprises, the net operating cash flow has contracted by 16.8%, with private and mixed-ownership firms under severe pressure [4]. - Sales have sharply declined, with total cash received from sales by 50 sample firms dropping to 25,599 billion yuan in 2024, a 55% decrease from 2021, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of -23.4% [5][6]. - The inventory structure of real estate firms is deteriorating, with completed inventory accounting for 25% of total inventory in 2024, leading to extended sales recovery periods and further liquidity constraints [6][11]. Group 2: Investment Activities - Investment activities have maintained a net outflow for four consecutive years, with a net outflow of 44.3 billion yuan in 2024 [13]. - Cash inflows from investment activities have decreased by 60% to 3,113 billion yuan in 2024 compared to 2021, while cash outflows have decreased by 74% to 3,556 billion yuan [14]. - In 2024, 54% of the firms experienced net outflows in investment activities, indicating a significant divide among firms [15]. Group 3: Financing Cash Flow - Financing cash flow has consistently shown a net outflow, with a net outflow of 3,434 billion yuan in 2024, although the scale of outflow has contracted [17]. - The financing cash inflow decreased by 35.5% to 24,387 billion yuan in 2022, with subsequent years maintaining a decline of around 20% [18]. - Only 8 firms have borrowing capabilities that cover their debt obligations, indicating ongoing repayment pressures for most firms [24]. Group 4: Cash Holdings - Cash holdings among key firms have decreased by 9.9% year-on-year in 2024, with total cash holdings at 13,122 billion yuan [27]. - The adjusted non-restricted cash, after deducting pre-sale regulatory funds, has also decreased by 8%, leading to a decline in the short-term debt coverage ratio [28]. - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the lack of disclosure regarding pre-sale regulatory funds, which could further diminish the actual liquidity position of firms [31]. Group 5: Policy Implications - Multiple favorable policies are emerging to address the current liquidity crisis in the real estate sector, with a focus on stabilizing the market [32]. - Recent policy measures include the relaxation of purchase and sale restrictions, as well as adjustments to down payment ratios and loan interest rates [33]. - The ongoing urban renewal initiatives are expected to attract more capital into the real estate sector, contributing to market stabilization [33].