市场低迷造成三方困局，项目体量巨大难寻白衣骑士。 ◎ 文 / 易天宇 日前，一张关于中信信托·深圳龙岗融资集合资金信托计划2025年第一次受益人大会的表决文件在网络上流 传，内容涉及龙岗区政府拟以68亿的价格收回世茂曾计划在深圳打造的"中国第一高楼"项目，而世茂集团当初 是以239亿竞得，因差距悬殊而引起热议。围绕收储价格，政府、世茂、债权人三方态度均有不同，68亿补偿 款价格是否合理？又是否能真的能盘活该超级地标项目？ 深港综合体项目无人接盘，龙岗政府四折收储 01 然而2022年初，世茂集团陷入流动性危机，深港国际中心也因此停工。2022年2月深圳龙岗信托计划出现兑付 异常，中信信托随即启动风险处置程序。由于14幅地块中的10号及11号地块（公寓项目世茂之都一期二期）已 对外出售，故剩余12宗地块（包括西安信托抵债地块）于2023年分别 以130.44亿元、104.35亿元的起拍价进行 了两次司法拍卖，但均因无人竞买流拍。 根据彼时土地估价报告，12宗地块的登记价合计176亿，地块估价 150亿，在建工程估价13亿，合计估价163亿。 2024年7月，市场流传《中信信托深圳龙岗融资集合资金信托计划受益人大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends and dynamics in the luxury real estate market, particularly focusing on the high-end residential properties in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, highlighting the sales performance and market expectations for the first half of 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Luxury Real Estate Trends - The luxury market is experiencing a strong demand, with high-priced properties in Shanghai leading the sales, indicating that "the more luxurious, the better it sells" [2]. - The supply-demand expectations for high-end luxury homes remain stable, while competition among products in cities like Chengdu and Wuhan is intensifying [2]. Group 2: Market Performance Analysis - In July, new home transactions in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw a seasonal decline, while cities like Guangzhou and Wuhan maintained low conversion rates [4]. - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has seen a slight increase in listing volumes, but demand continues to shrink in these cities [5]. Group 3: Price and Inventory Dynamics - Price indicators are rebounding, with average negotiation space hitting a record low for three consecutive months, indicating a recovery in the second-hand housing market [6]. - Overall inventory in 50 cities has decreased by 7%, but there are still significant de-stocking pressures in peripheral areas [7]. Group 4: Land Transaction Insights - The land transaction scale remains low, with a significant increase in land supply in the 29th week, while transaction volumes continue to be at low levels [9]. - Shenzhen has set a new record for land prices, with a high total price and premium for a residential land sale, reflecting the competitive nature of the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently in a de-inventory cycle due to restricted new housing supply, with a notable decline in inventory levels across 50 key cities, down 7% year-on-year as of June 2025 [2][4][17]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - As of June 2025, the narrow inventory of new residential properties in 50 cities stands at 30,927 million square meters, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decrease [4][17]. - The de-inventory cycle has resulted in an average de-inventory period of 21.82 months, which is a 5% decrease year-on-year [4][17]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, and Wuhan have de-inventory periods exceeding 18 months, indicating ongoing pressure to reduce inventory [4][17]. Group 2: Inventory Structure by Area - The primary inventory in Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Nanjing consists of medium-sized units (100-120 square meters), accounting for over 20% of total inventory [6][17]. - There is an increase in inventory for larger units (over 160 square meters) due to a steady supply of high-end residential properties, while sales growth has not kept pace, leading to short-term inventory accumulation [6][17]. - In Guangzhou, the inventory for units sized 120-140 square meters and 160-180 square meters has seen significant increases, while smaller units (70-100 square meters) have experienced notable declines [6][17]. Group 3: Regional Inventory Characteristics - In Guangzhou, the inventory is heavily concentrated in lower-value peripheral areas, with the inventory ratio in the增城区 reaching 22.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.06 percentage points [10][11]. - In Wuhan, the inventory in the东西湖区 is 13.51%, while in Nanjing's江宁区, it stands at 20.57%, indicating a similar trend of high inventory in lower-value areas [10][11]. - Core urban areas in these cities have seen a slight increase in inventory ratios, suggesting a shift in demand towards more central locations [10][11]. Group 4: De-inventory Cycle Analysis - The de-inventory cycle is characterized by high periods for smaller units (below 80 square meters) and larger units (above 180 square meters), with significant pressure on these segments due to limited transaction volumes [13][17]. - For instance, in Guangzhou, units below 70 square meters and above 160 square meters have de-inventory periods exceeding 30 months [13][17]. - Peripheral areas in cities like Guangzhou's增城区 and武汉's长江新区 are facing substantial de-inventory pressures, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in key cities is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in transactions for properties priced over 10 million yuan, particularly in Shanghai, which leads the market [3][4][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the transaction volume of luxury homes (priced over 10 million yuan) in 20 key cities increased by 21% year-on-year, while the overall new home market only saw a 5% increase [4][59]. - The total number of luxury homes sold in first-tier cities reached 16,000 units, a 15% increase year-on-year, while second and third-tier cities saw a 37% increase with 5,871 units sold [4][59]. - Shanghai's luxury market is particularly strong, with properties priced over 50 million yuan accounting for 78% of total transactions in this segment [18][59]. Group 2: Characteristics of Luxury Homes - The proportion of luxury homes sold in the 1,000-3,000 million yuan range increased significantly, with Shanghai showing a notable rise from 18.72% in 2024 to 23.72% in 2025 [9][59]. - Large luxury homes (over 180 square meters) accounted for 46% of transactions, although the concentration in this segment is decreasing, indicating a shift towards more diverse property sizes [19][23]. - The most popular size for luxury homes in first-tier cities has shifted to 120-140 square meters, reflecting changing buyer preferences [24][59]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The increase in high-premium land supply has led to a surge in luxury home projects, particularly in cities like Ningbo and Xiamen, where the supply of luxury homes increased by 113% year-on-year [29][31]. - The "Good House" national strategy has prompted developers to enhance the quality of new luxury homes, making them more appealing compared to second-hand properties [37][39]. - Economic conditions have allowed for the appreciation of second-hand luxury homes, making them attractive for both self-use and investment [42][43]. Group 4: Future Outlook - An estimated 775,000 square meters of luxury homes are expected to be supplied in the second half of 2025, with the third quarter anticipated to be a peak period for new listings [48][49]. - Cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are facing significant supply constraints, while others like Hangzhou and Chengdu may experience oversupply [53][54]. - The demand for high-quality luxury homes remains strong among high-net-worth individuals, suggesting continued growth potential in the luxury market [58].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable contraction in operating cash flow and a need for companies to enhance competitiveness and transition for future development [1][3]. Group 1: Operating Cash Flow - Excluding state-owned enterprises, the net operating cash flow has contracted by 16.8%, with private and mixed-ownership companies under severe pressure [4][10]. - Sales have sharply declined, with total cash received from sales for 50 sample companies in 2024 amounting to 25,599 billion, a 55% decrease from 2021, reflecting a three-year compound annual growth rate of -23.4% [5][6]. - The inventory structure of real estate companies is deteriorating, with completed inventory accounting for 25% of total inventory in 2024, up 4.5 percentage points from the beginning of the year, leading to extended sales recovery periods [6][11]. Group 2: Investment Activities - Investment activities have maintained a net outflow for four consecutive years, with a net outflow of 443 billion in 2024 [13][15]. - Cash inflows from investment activities for 50 typical listed real estate companies in 2024 were 3,113 billion, a 60% decrease from 2021, while cash outflows were 3,556 billion, a 74% decrease from 2021 [14][15]. Group 3: Financing Cash Flow - Financing cash flow has shown a long-term net outflow, with a net outflow of 3,434 billion in 2024, although the scale of outflow has contracted [17][18]. - The financing cash inflow for 50 key real estate companies dropped from approximately 37,796 billion in 2021 to 24,387 billion in 2022, a decrease of 35.5% [18][23]. Group 4: Cash Holdings - Cash holdings among real estate companies have continued to decrease, with a 9.9% reduction in 2024, leading to increased short-term repayment pressure [27][28]. - The adjusted non-restricted cash for 50 key companies was 9,653 billion at the end of 2024, an 8% decrease from the beginning of the year, indicating significant liquidity risks [28][31]. Group 5: Policy Impacts - Multiple favorable policies are emerging to address the current liquidity crisis in the industry, including easing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios [32][33]. - The government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, which may help alleviate cash flow pressures in the near future [32][33].

Core Viewpoint - The land supply in key cities has significantly increased, while transaction volumes remain low, leading to a rise in premium rates to their highest levels of the year [1][2]. Supply - The supply of land this week reached 5.27 million square meters, a 65% increase compared to the previous week [2]. - A total of 55 plots of residential land were supplied, with an average plot ratio of 1.99. Notably, cities like Nantong, Taicang, and Chengdu had average plot ratios not exceeding 1.6 [2]. - In Shenzhen, a residential plot in Bao'an District was auctioned with a base price of 6.409 billion yuan and a total building area of 145,000 square meters, with a starting floor price of 44,200 yuan per square meter. This plot had previously been withdrawn from auction in April due to a high starting price [2]. Transaction - The transaction volume for the week was 2.51 million square meters, a 12% increase from the previous week, with a transaction value of 13.8 billion yuan, down 5% [2]. - Shenzhen successfully auctioned a high-premium residential plot, contributing to an average premium rate increase to 12.2%, marking a return to the year's high [2][3]. - In the Nanshan District of Shenzhen, a residential plot was sold for 2.155 billion yuan with a premium rate of 86.1%, setting a new record for floor prices in Shenzhen [3]. - In Hangzhou, a residential plot was sold for 1.15 billion yuan with a premium rate of 12.75%, indicating strong demand in the area [3]. Notable Transactions - The top transactions included: - Shenzhen: Plot sold to China Merchants Shekou for 2.215 billion yuan, floor price 84,180 yuan/sqm, premium rate 86% [5]. - Hangzhou: Plot sold to Greentown China for 1.15 billion yuan, floor price 17,513 yuan/sqm, premium rate 12.75% [5]. - Harbin: A plot sold for 496 million yuan with a premium rate of 15.63% [4].

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Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market shows signs of stabilization in June, with an increase in the proportion of price-increasing communities, particularly in core cities, indicating a potential recovery trend in the market [2][20]. Group 1: Price Trends - In June, 48.3% of second-hand housing communities experienced a month-on-month price increase, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous month, while the number of high-frequency trading communities slightly decreased to 4,412, remaining above the average level since 2025 [2][20]. - The average listing price continues to decline, with 71.6% of communities seeing a drop in listing prices, an increase of 5.7 percentage points from May, indicating a persistent willingness among sellers to lower prices [3][20]. Group 2: City Performance - Nanjing and Suzhou lead with 56% of communities experiencing price increases, primarily due to recovery in previously underpriced areas, although transaction volumes in Nanjing still fell over 20% year-on-year [5][20]. - In contrast, Hangzhou saw only 47% of communities with price increases, failing to maintain a streak of over 50% for five consecutive months, largely due to price corrections in higher-end properties [5][20]. Group 3: Bargaining Space - The average bargaining space for second-hand homes in typical cities decreased to 15.1%, down 0.3 percentage points, marking a three-month low, suggesting that buyer and seller price expectations are converging [11][20]. - High-end communities have the lowest average bargaining space at 11%, indicating a more significant adjustment in prices for high-value properties compared to other segments [14][20]. Group 4: Product Type Differentiation - Among different community types, 49% of first-time buyer communities saw price increases, the highest among all categories, while improvement and high-end communities lagged behind due to increased competition from the new housing market [17][20]. - The overall transaction volume for second-hand homes remained flat year-on-year, with a noticeable slowdown in growth momentum compared to the average 12% increase in the first half of the year [17][20]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to stabilize gradually in the second half of the year, supported by various policy measures aimed at increasing urban housing demand and improving the livability of existing residential areas [23][20].

Core Viewpoint - The high-end real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to stabilize but may decline slightly, driven by increased supply and changing buyer preferences [21][22]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 2025, the second-hand housing market in 30 key cities remains stable, with transaction volumes unchanged month-on-month but showing a slight year-on-year decline of 3% [3]. - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou shows a mixed trend, with Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou experiencing slight increases, while Shanghai saw a significant drop of 18% month-on-month [3][4]. Group 2: Listing Structure Analysis - In Beijing, the proportion of listings priced over 600 million yuan is increasing, particularly in the 600-800 million yuan segment, which rose from 10.40% to 11.27% [4]. - In Shanghai and Shenzhen, there is a notable decline in the mid-price segment (300-1000 million yuan), with the most significant drop in the 300-500 million yuan range, which decreased by 0.73 percentage points [9][10]. Group 3: Price and Area Segmentation - In Hangzhou, low-priced and small-sized properties remain the primary listings, with the 100-300 million yuan segment increasing by 0.75 percentage points [15][16]. - The listing volume for properties under 90 square meters is increasing, while larger properties (over 180 square meters) are seeing a significant decline [18][19]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the second-hand housing market is characterized by a "stable overall, differentiated internal" pattern, with Beijing showing positive signals and increased listings in the high-end segment [21]. - The future market dynamics will depend on the willingness of sellers to reduce prices, as the large base of listings may lead to extended transaction cycles if no significant price advantages are offered [22].

Group 1 - The central urban work conference emphasizes a collaborative approach on both supply and demand sides to stabilize the market in the short term and guide the real estate industry towards a new model of "high quality, low risk, and sustainable" development in the medium to long term [2] - The real estate sector is experiencing fluctuations but is gradually stabilizing, with improved transaction scales and a narrowing decline in prices, indicating positive results in inventory reduction [3] - Financing optimization and stable performance have allowed Huafa Group to establish a path of certain growth, supported by a systematic approach in the "good housing" sector and ample financial resources [3] Group 2 - The government’s construction agency policy continues to be implemented, with strategic cooperation between enterprises and entrusted parties, as evidenced by a slight increase in land acquisition by city investment and platform companies [5] - The auction volume of foreclosed properties reached a new high in June, with 278 properties starting at 1 yuan, indicating an increase in second-hand housing options and potentially accelerating the turnover of housing stock [6] - The land supply and demand scale has seen a cyclical decline, with a significant drop in transaction volume but a notable increase in premium rates, suggesting a return to the annual average premium rate [7] Group 3 - In the first half of 2025, the market transaction structure has improved, with an increase in the proportion of transactions for properties larger than 120 square meters, particularly a 1.3 percentage point increase for the 140-160 square meter segment [10] - The national list of outstanding projects has been released, evaluated on innovation, influence, and product design highlights [11]