小熊跑的快

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美AI股还是强的可怕
小熊跑的快· 2025-08-04 23:13
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that performance ultimately drives investment decisions, indicating a lack of alternatives for capital allocation [1] Company Summaries Microsoft (MSFT) - Current stock price is $535.640 with a market capitalization of $1,398.15 billion and a P/E ratio of 39.1 [2] - After-hours trading shows a slight increase to $537.400, reflecting a 0.33% rise [2] Broadcom (AVGO) - Current stock price is $297.720 with a market capitalization of $1,140.03 billion and a P/E ratio of 108 [3] - After-hours trading indicates a minor increase to $298.000, a 0.09% rise [3] Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Current stock price is $176.780 with a market capitalization of $286.6 billion and a P/E ratio of 129 [4] - After-hours trading shows an increase to $179.850, reflecting a 1.74% rise [4] NVIDIA (NVDA) - Current stock price is $180.000 with a market capitalization of $439.20 billion and a P/E ratio of 57.2 [5] - After-hours trading indicates a slight increase to $180.770, a 0.43% rise [5]
有没有可能是AI导致 特朗普开人?
小熊跑的快· 2025-08-04 00:25
所以美大厂AI的增速越来越高,就业会不会越来越差? 两者看似矛盾,实则高度相关? 企业用AI,人效提升,减少用工人员,会带来招聘下降,印象新毕业生就业率。它预测明年新毕业就 业人员会大幅下降。 于此相对的,我们看到部分saas公司的 订阅数恶化,也是因为企业裁员导致的。 美国7月非农新增就业人数骤降至7.3万人,创9个月来最低纪录,也大幅不及预期的10.4万人。 5月和6月数据被大幅下修。5月非农从原先的14.4万修正为1.9万;6月从14.7万修正为1.4万。 然后特朗普开除了 劳工统计局局长。 大摩最近出了一篇深度报告,它的意思就是美国7.5%的公司内部用上了AI。 ...
figma 首日50倍ps 亚马逊capex超预期
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-31 23:36
Group 1: Figma Overview - Figma is a cloud-based collaborative design software that allows multiple roles such as designers, developers, and product managers to work together in real-time, disrupting traditional design software models [1] - As of March 2025, Figma has 13 million monthly active users, with two-thirds being non-traditional designers, making it the most popular UI design tool globally [1] - Figma's revenue for FY24 reached $749 million, a 48% increase year-over-year, with Q1 FY25 revenue at $228 million, up 46% [2] Group 2: Figma's Business Model and Growth - 70% of Figma's revenue comes from large customers, with the number of customers generating over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) increasing to 1,031, a 47% growth [2] - Figma is expanding from a single design tool to a comprehensive platform covering the entire process from conception to launch, with 76% of customers using two or more products [2] - The total addressable market (TAM) for Figma is projected to be $33 billion, with strong user growth and AI integration expected to drive future revenue [2] Group 3: Figma's Valuation and Market Comparison - Figma's current revenue growth exceeds 40%, with a free cash flow margin of 28% and a 40% rule metric above 60%, suggesting a higher valuation compared to similar SaaS companies like Crowdstrike [3] - Figma's IPO pricing range was raised to $30-32 per share, valuing the company at $18.8 billion, up from an initial range of $25-28 [2] Group 4: Amazon's Financial Performance - Amazon reported Q2 FY25 revenue of $167.7 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $18.2 billion, up 35% [4] - AWS revenue for Q2 FY25 was $30.87 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year, but growth was slower compared to competitors like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [5][6] Group 5: Amazon's Business Segments - Amazon's online store revenue for Q2 FY25 was $61.49 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [5] - The third-party seller services segment generated $40.35 billion in revenue, up 11% year-over-year, while advertising revenue reached $15.69 billion, a 17% increase [9] Group 6: Amazon's Future Outlook - Amazon's Q3 FY25 revenue guidance is between $174 billion and $179.5 billion, indicating a 10-13% year-over-year growth, but operating profit guidance is below market expectations [5] - AWS faces supply constraints, with a backlog of $195 billion in orders as of June 30, reflecting a 25% year-over-year increase [6]
补一篇微软:液冷+ai应用
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-31 04:37
Core Insights - The article highlights Microsoft's advancements in liquid cooling technology and AI applications, emphasizing the company's significant capital expenditure increase and its competitive edge in data center capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Liquid Cooling Technology - Microsoft is fully advancing liquid cooling across all its data centers, which is expected to compel other companies to adopt similar technologies [4]. - All Azure regions are now equipped to support liquid cooling, enhancing the flexibility and efficiency of Microsoft's data center fleet [2]. Group 2: Data Center Capacity - Over the past 12 months, Microsoft has added more than 2 gigawatts of new data center capacity, outpacing competitors in scaling its infrastructure [3]. Group 3: AI Applications - Microsoft's M365 commercial cloud business revenue exceeded expectations, with a fixed exchange rate growth of 18% and 16%, driven by the E5 and M365 Copilot products [5]. - The consumer cloud revenue for M365 grew by 20%, supported by an increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) following a price hike and an 8% user growth [5]. - The Copilot application family has surpassed 100 million monthly active users, indicating strong penetration within the market [5]. - Microsoft’s AI features have over 800 million monthly active users across its products, showcasing the widespread adoption of its AI capabilities [5].
微软 meta 双双大超预期
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-31 00:09
Group 1: Microsoft Performance - Microsoft reported Azure cloud revenue growth of 39%, exceeding previous guidance of 34-35% and market expectations of 37% [1] - Total revenue for FY2532 reached $76.44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 18%, slightly above market expectations of $73.8 billion [1] - Net profit was $27.23 billion, up 24% year-over-year, surpassing the expected $25.2 billion [1] Group 2: Microsoft Business Segments - Intelligent Cloud segment generated $29.88 billion in revenue, a 26% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations of $29.1 billion [1] - Productivity and Business Processes revenue was $33.11 billion, up 16% year-over-year, driven by an 18% increase in Microsoft 365 commercial cloud revenue [1] - Personal Computing revenue reached $13.5 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, higher than the expected $12.6 billion [1] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Future Guidance - Capital expenditure for the quarter was $24.2 billion, with over 50% allocated to long-term assets like data centers [2] - FY26 Q1 guidance includes revenue expectations of $32.2-32.5 billion for Productivity and Business Processes and $30.1-30.4 billion for Intelligent Cloud [2] - FY26 full-year revenue is expected to achieve double-digit growth [2] Group 4: AI Impact on Performance - Cloud business growth is driven by AI, with Azure revenue exceeding $75 billion, a 34% increase [2] - Monthly active users of Copilot applications surpassed 100 million, indicating significant user acceptance [2] - AI infrastructure expansion includes an additional 2 GW of data center capacity to support Azure AI and OpenAI demands [3] Group 5: Meta Performance - Meta reported total revenue of $47.516 billion for Q2, a 22% year-over-year increase, exceeding guidance and market expectations [4] - Net profit reached $18.337 billion, up 36.18% year-over-year, surpassing the expected $15.166 billion [4] - Capital expenditure was $17 billion, primarily for server and data center investments, exceeding expectations [4] Group 6: Meta Advertising and User Engagement - Meta's applications achieved over 3.4 billion daily active users, with total revenue of $47.1 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase [5] - Advertising revenue grew by 21%, with online retail being the fastest-growing sector [5] - Average ad prices increased by 9%, driven by improved ad effectiveness [5] Group 7: Meta's Future Guidance - Meta expects total revenue for Q3 to be between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, with a positive impact from foreign exchange [6] - The company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to between $66 billion and $72 billion to meet AI and business needs [6]
数字智能是否会取代生物智能?
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-27 00:26
Core Viewpoint - The ultimate consideration in the AI industry is whether digital intelligence (silicon-based) can irreversibly surpass biological intelligence (carbon-based) when energy becomes sufficiently cheap [1] Summary by Sections Two Paradigms for Intelligence - Digital intelligence can instantaneously propagate knowledge across groups by directly copying brain knowledge, a capability that biological intelligence cannot match [1] Development Over Thirty Years - The evolution of AI over the past three decades has led to significant advancements, including the acceptance of "feature vectors" by computational linguists and the introduction of the Transformer model by Google, showcasing the powerful capabilities of large language models [4][8] Large Language Models - Large language models understand language in a manner similar to humans, transforming words into feature vectors that can effectively combine with other words, akin to building structures with Lego blocks [2][8] Knowledge Transfer and Efficiency - The best method for transferring knowledge is through distillation from a "teacher" to a "student," allowing for efficient sharing of learned knowledge among digital agents [8] Current Situation and Future Implications - If energy is cheap, digital computation will generally have advantages over biological computation, particularly in knowledge sharing among agents [8] - The potential for superintelligence to manipulate humans for power raises significant concerns about the future of AI and its implications for human safety [12]
天天都在上演极限轮动
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-25 07:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rotation in the investment focus towards domestic computing power, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1 - Investors previously expressed concerns about the lack of movement in the semiconductor sector and AI applications in software and media [1]. - The current market behavior reflects an extreme rotation, suggesting rapid changes in investment strategies and sector focus [2].
capex上调100亿 google 财报季
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-23 23:10
Core Viewpoint - Google's Q2 2025 financial results exceeded market expectations, with significant growth in cloud services and advertising revenue, indicating strong operational performance and a positive outlook for future capital expenditures [2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Google achieved revenue of $96.428 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.79% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.86%, surpassing market expectations of $94.02 billion [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2025 was $2.31, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.22% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.79%, exceeding the market expectation of $2.20 [2]. Cloud Business - Google's cloud business generated revenue of $13.624 billion in Q2 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.67% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.13%, the highest growth rate since 2022, and surpassing market expectations of $13.1 billion [2]. - The backlog of orders in Q2 2025 increased by 18% quarter-on-quarter and 38% year-on-year, reaching $106 billion, indicating strong demand driven by AI adoption [2]. Advertising Revenue - Google's advertising revenue in Q2 2025 was $71.340 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 10.41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.66%, exceeding Wall Street expectations [2]. - Search advertising revenue was $54.190 billion, up 11.71% year-on-year, while YouTube advertising revenue reached $9.796 billion, up 13.08% year-on-year [2]. Subscription and Device Revenue - Subscription, platform, and device revenue amounted to $11.203 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.94% [3]. AI and Token Usage - The usage of AI tokens has doubled, with monthly token consumption exceeding 980 trillion, up from 480 trillion announced in May 2025 [4]. - The Gemini application has reached 450 million monthly active users, contributing to a 35-fold increase in usage [4]. Capital Expenditure - Google's capital expenditure for Q2 2025 was $22.446 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.52%, exceeding market expectations [5]. - The company has raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $85 billion from the previous $75 billion, with a commitment to continued increases in 2026 [5]. Shareholder Returns - Google returned $13.6 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks and paid $2.5 billion in dividends [6]. Depreciation Impact - Depreciation expenses increased by $1.3 billion year-on-year to $5 billion in Q2 2025, with a growth rate of 35%, expected to accelerate further in Q3 due to increased capital expenditures [7].
美众议院 通过稳定币法案
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-18 01:05
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to the U.S. dollar, marking a significant milestone for the digital asset industry [1][2] Group 1 - The bill, named the GENIUS Act, sets preliminary safeguards and consumer protection measures for stablecoins, which are designed to reduce volatility by being linked to stable assets like the dollar [2] - French Hill, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, stated that the bill will ensure U.S. competitiveness and provide strong protections for consumers, highlighting a revolution in payment systems globally [2]
circle又开始了
小熊跑的快· 2025-07-17 00:07
Core Viewpoint - The Senate is expected to discuss recent matters, with pressure from Bessent and Trump [1] Group 1 - The discussion in the Senate is anticipated to address significant issues that have been raised recently [1]