甲骨文这个季度（9/10/11月）营收 160.6亿美元，预期为162.1亿美元，略低一点点。 第二季度剩余履约义务为5230亿美元，同比增长438%（以美元计）。 超过了分析师平均预期的5018亿美元（主要meta有新增）。 第二季度GAAP每股收益增长91%至2.10美元，非GAAP每股收益增长54%至2.26美元。 第二季度总营收为161亿美元，按美元计算增长14%，按固定汇率计算增长13%。 第二季度云业务收入（IaaS 加 SaaS）达 79.8亿美元，按美元计算增长 34%，按固定汇率计算增长 33%。 高于StreetAccount调查的分析师普遍预期 的79.2亿美元。云基础设施收入总计41亿美元，增长68%。 NetSuite云ERP（SaaS）第二季度营收达10亿美元，按美元和固定汇率计算均增长13%。 甲骨文公司预计全年资本支出约为500亿美元，高于9月份的350亿美元。 以上数据其实还比较正常。不足以支持盘后大跌。 解读：关键还是现金流和毛利率！这两项被看的特别重要！最近一个季度！ 越来越紧张的财务数据：Q3 自由现金流-100亿美元，普遍预期为-52亿美元。经营性现金流20亿，上个季 ...

群里某人伤心了。 说某行业某交流会来了四个不错公司董秘，硬是凑不出一个客户来交流。 现在这市场真是现实呀。 流动性看似很好，可都给了 头部那几个顶流公司了。典型的 1/99 行情！ 某人默默流泪！这什么世道呀？憋屈！从来没遭受过此等耻辱。 ...

Core Insights - The company is expected to report revenue of $16.15 billion for the current quarter, with a growth rate of 14.88%, and $16.81 billion for the next quarter, with a growth rate of 18.97% [2][4] - Gross margin is anticipated to be 70.36% for the current quarter and 69.55% for the next quarter [3] Financial Performance - Deferred revenue is projected to be $8.464 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 5.01% [2] - Hardware revenue is expected to be $728 million, with a year-over-year decline of 3.70% [2] - Cloud services revenue is forecasted to reach $6.736 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26.83% [2] Regional Breakdown - Revenue from the Americas is expected to be $9.731 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 10.54% [2] - Asia Pacific revenue is projected at $1.800 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 3.35% [2] - EMEA revenue is anticipated to be $3.655 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 6.85% [2] Cost and Expenses - Cost of revenue is expected to be $1.104 billion, with a year-over-year growth of -1.07% [2] - Operating expenses are projected to be $5.403 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase [2] Market Sentiment - Overall expectations for the company have been lowered multiple times, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4]

Group 1 - Nvidia has received approval from Trump to export H200 chips to China, with a 25% additional fee imposed; the chips will only be supplied to "approved customers" [1] - The H200 chip, set to be mass-produced in the first half of 2024, utilizes advanced 4nm technology and offers significant performance improvements over its predecessor, H20, with a compute power ratio of 13:1 [1] - The H200 features HBM3E memory (141GB), surpassing the HBM3 (96GB) used in H20, although it is still inferior to the upcoming B200 series [1] Group 2 - The market reaction has been lackluster, with only optical modules showing interest; other sectors are experiencing a significant downturn [2] - There is a general sentiment in the market that is overly cautious, leading to minimal attention on stocks outside of optical modules [2]

Group 1 - The company Google recently mentioned a potential shift back to optical interaction technology, indicating ongoing developments in this area [1] - There are concerns regarding power supply, with feedback from North America suggesting that current computing power is already allocated for the year 2027, highlighting a significant electricity shortage [1] - Apart from the 2GW power source, Google currently lacks visibility on new large power supply sources [1] Group 2 - The industry continues to maintain a positive outlook on the robotaxi sector, suggesting confidence in its growth potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing acceptance and improvement of AI applications in the entertainment industry, particularly in the production of animated dramas, suggesting a positive outlook for the future of AI in this sector [2]. Group 1: Consumer Experience - The narrative quality remains paramount, with successful plots being the primary driver for consumer engagement and willingness to pay for content [1]. - Recent advancements in visual quality and the alignment of visuals with the storyline have significantly enhanced the viewing experience, reducing the sense of dissonance [1]. Group 2: AI Application Metrics - There has been a notable increase in token consumption, with text growth estimated at around 40-50%, while multimodal growth is reported to be 2-3 times higher [1]. - The proportion of multimodal consumption has reportedly exceeded 35%, indicating a shift towards more integrated content formats [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements and financial performance of Pony.ai's Robotaxi business, highlighting its transition to profitability and expansion plans in various global markets. Financial Performance - Pony.ai reported a third-quarter revenue of $25.4 million, a 72% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin improvement to 18.4% [3] - The Robotaxi segment generated $6.7 million in revenue during the same period, marking an 89.5% year-over-year growth, with passenger fare revenue increasing over 200% [3] Operational Milestones - The seventh-generation Robotaxi has achieved operational cost breakeven across major cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing, with a fleet size of 961 vehicles as of November 2025 [3] - The company aims to exceed 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025 and expand the fleet to over 3,000 by the end of 2026 [3] Global Expansion - Pony.ai has expanded its operations to eight countries, including a partnership with Qatar's largest transportation provider, Mowasalat, and collaborations with local partners in Singapore, Luxembourg, and South Korea [4] Future Projections - Projections indicate that with a fleet of over 3,000 vehicles, the Robotaxi business will start to become profitable [6][7] - The average annual revenue per vehicle is expected to increase from 152,880 yuan in 2026 to 196,560 yuan by 2029, while operational costs are projected to decrease over time [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the new AI phone developed by Doubao and Nubia, focusing on its ability to access applications quickly through a screen-reading mechanism, raising concerns about permissions and the potential for ecosystem conflicts [1][2][4]. Group 1: Technology and Functionality - The AI phone utilizes a screen-reading feature that simulates human interaction with applications, allowing it to access services like 12306 and Meituan, despite these not being listed in Doubao's partner MCPs [1][2]. - The phone's performance is noted to be impressive, especially considering it uses an earlier model of ByteDance's AI, with potential for significant improvements in future iterations [4]. Group 2: Ecosystem Conflicts - Major smartphone manufacturers, particularly Apple, are resistant to allowing AI assistants access to their operating systems, as this could undermine their revenue models [4][6]. - App developers, especially those reliant on user engagement for revenue, such as Meituan and Taobao, are likely to oppose the integration of AI assistants that could reduce user interaction with their platforms [4][5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article outlines a competitive landscape where companies like Google, Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance are positioning themselves in the AI assistant market, each with unique strengths and ecosystems [6][7]. - Google is highlighted as a leader due to its comprehensive ecosystem, while Tencent is expected to leverage its extensive WeChat mini-programs to develop its own AI assistant [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that while the application landscape is fragmented, companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi are potential candidates for investment, particularly through ETFs that track technology and internet sectors [9][11]. - The recent market downturn, with declines around 15%, presents a potential opportunity for long-term investment in AI-related companies, with ByteDance being a notable player [11].

Core Insights - The industry is transitioning from an era focused on "scaling" to one driven by "fundamental research" in AI development [1][2] - Ilya categorizes AI development into three phases: the Age of Research (2012-2020), the Age of Scaling (2020-2025), and a return to the Age of Research post-2025 [2] - Current AI models are facing limitations in scaling, necessitating a renewed focus on research methodologies similar to those used before 2020 [2][4] Group 1: Phases of AI Development - The Age of Research (2012-2020) was characterized by experimentation with new ideas and architectures, resulting in models like AlexNet, ResNet, and Transformer [2] - The Age of Scaling (2020-2025) introduced a straightforward yet effective approach of using more computational power, data, and larger models for pre-training, leading to significant advancements [2] - The anticipated return to the Age of Research suggests that the effectiveness of scaling is diminishing, prompting a need for innovative breakthroughs [2] Group 2: Critique of Current Approaches - Ilya questions the effectiveness of reinforcement learning and scoring methods, arguing they produce machines with limited generalization capabilities [3] - He emphasizes the importance of value functions in decision-making, likening human emotions to a simple yet effective value function that current large models struggle to replicate [3] - The concept of a new intelligent system capable of self-learning and growth is proposed, envisioning an AI akin to a 15-year-old capable of various tasks [3] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Directions - Ilya's recent statements align with the industry's recognition of stagnation in large language models, attributed to data limitations [4] - Despite the diminishing returns of scaling, the focus should shift towards inference, with significant revenue projections for pure inference APIs and AI hardware rentals [4] - SSI, the company Ilya is associated with, prioritizes research and alignment, aiming to develop safe superintelligent systems without immediate commercial considerations [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in AI edge technology and its potential impact on various consumer electronics, highlighting the trend towards integrating AI capabilities into devices like smartphones, glasses, and wearables [2][3][4]. Group 1: AI Edge Technology Developments - The overseas operation of robotaxi has achieved positive unit economics, indicating that the single vehicle is no longer operating at a loss [2]. - The upcoming event on December 18 will showcase several AI edge products, including AI smartphones, glasses, ear studs, wristbands, and rings [3]. - There is an internal belief that these products are just a demonstration of potential, with uncertainty regarding their sales performance, but a strong conviction that this represents a significant trend [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Expectations - The expectation is that major smartphone manufacturers like Oppo and Xiaomi will follow suit in adopting AI edge technology [6]. - The integration of various applications with AI agents is anticipated to enhance user experience, similar to the search functionality of ChatGPT, which requires authorization for cross-app solutions [6][7]. - The focus on maximizing port value through various terminals and applications is seen as a strategy to embed AI agents more deeply into consumer technology [7].