小熊跑的快

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大摩看多中国资产
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-20 08:22
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's AI development model differs from the U.S., focusing on "efficiency-driven, engineering implementation" rather than "compute power supremacy" [1] Group 1: AI Development and Investment Landscape - Major foreign banks are optimistic about Chinese cloud providers and chip foundries, indicating a positive outlook for international investments in these sectors [1] - The AI investment value chain is shifting from foundational hardware to application layers, platform layers, and vertical industry implementations [1] - The DeepSeek incident is identified as a pivotal moment that has prompted a reassessment of the "cost efficiency model" and spurred an open-source movement [1][2] Group 2: Economic Implications of AI - The AI revolution is expected to enhance China's long-term potential GDP growth by addressing structural challenges such as aging population and slowing productivity growth [3] - AI capital expenditure is projected to be a primary driver in the short term, contributing approximately 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to annual GDP growth [3] - By 2024, AI is estimated to create an equivalent labor value of approximately 6.7 trillion RMB, assuming AI penetration aligns with IMF predictions for emerging markets [3][4] Group 3: Return on Investment and Market Dynamics - By 2030, China's AI industry is projected to yield a total return of about 806 billion RMB, achieving a 52% return on invested capital (ROIC) [4] - The e-commerce sector is expected to contribute the largest share to AI growth, estimated at 271 billion RMB, followed by advertising and local services [4] - The data center market in Beijing and surrounding areas is anticipated to experience the highest investment returns, with a supply-demand reversal expected within 6 to 12 months [4] Group 4: AI Hardware and Ecosystem - Despite U.S. chip restrictions, China's AI computing power continues to advance, supported by a combination of existing GPU inventory and domestic GPU development [5] - The self-sufficiency rate of Chinese AI GPUs is projected to reach 34% by 2024 and 82% by 2027 [5] - Huawei and Cambricon are identified as key domestic GPU suppliers, with most chips manufactured by local foundry SMIC [6] Group 5: Global Market Outlook - The global cloud AI market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28% from 2024 to 2027, reaching approximately $239 billion, with China projected to account for 20% of this market [6]
COMPUTEX 2025
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-19 13:03
Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements in AI technology as presented by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang at COMPUTEX 2025, highlighting the evolution of AI from perception to reasoning and physical AI [1] AI Evolution Path - The evolution of AI is categorized into four stages: 1. Perception AI: Understanding patterns like speech and image recognition 2. Generative AI: Transitioning from understanding to generating content across multiple modalities 3. Reasoning AI: Focusing on complex reasoning capabilities, utilizing techniques like "Chain of Thought" and "Tree of Thought" 4. Physical AI: Understanding physical concepts such as inertia and causality, crucial for the next AI era [1] GB300 and Blackwell Architecture - The GB300 system, based on the new Grace Blackwell architecture, has been in production since early this year, with significant upgrades including a 1.5x increase in inference performance and a 2x increase in network capability [2] - The system features 100% liquid cooling and maintains the same physical footprint as previous models, with a single node performance of approximately 40 petaflops [2] NVLink and CoWoS-L Technology - NVIDIA has developed a new collaborative process with TSMC called CoWoS-L to create larger chips, enhancing performance through NV-Link technology, which offers a data transfer speed of 7.2TB/s [3] - The NV-Link architecture connects multiple GPUs within a single rack, achieving a bandwidth of 130 terabytes/s, necessitating liquid cooling due to high power requirements [3] NVLink Fusion - NVLink Fusion is introduced to allow partners to build semi-custom AI infrastructure solutions, enabling integration of custom ASICs into NVIDIA's ecosystem [4] - This technology facilitates the mixing of NVIDIA components with partner-specific chips, enhancing the flexibility of AI infrastructure [5] DGX Spark and Workstations - DGX Spark has entered full production, designed for AI-native developers, offering 1 petaflops of computing power and 128GB of memory for prototyping and early development [6] - NVIDIA also launched desktop-level DGX supercomputers, capable of running AI models with up to 1 trillion parameters, suitable for home use [6] Enterprise AI Solutions - The RTX Pro Enterprise server integrates x86 architecture and supports various AI agents, showing significant performance improvements over previous models [7]
阿里答卷
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-15 23:08
阿里云季度收入加速增长至18%, 达到301.27亿元,创下三年来的最快增速,其中AI相关产品收入连续第七个季度保持三位数的同比增 长。 • 经营利润为人民币1409.05亿元(194.17亿美元),同比增长24%。 • 归属于普通股股东的净利润为人民币1294.70亿元(178.41亿美元)。净利润为人民币1259.76亿元 (173.60亿美元),同比增长77%。 对外商业化收入同比增长17%。上个季度13%。 I DC 最新数据, 阿里云国内市场排名第一,份额连续三个季度回升(阿里和火山都不错)。 IDC分 析,阿里云加大研发投入,在通义系列大模型、AI基础设施等领域全面发力,市场份额和同比增速显 著提升。 截至4月底, 阿里通义已开源200余个模型 ,全球下载量超3 亿次。 此外 基建带来的折旧出现了,海内外一样。 经调整 EBITA 利润率环比下降 1.9 个百分点(上个季度10%), 这是由于我们加大了技术和产品开发 方面的投入以把握快速增长的 AI 需求,同时,随着我们加大基础设施投入以满足需求爬坡,折旧与摊 销费用的上升也对利润率产生了一定影响。 本季度资本开支246亿,环比下降28%。 回溯 ...
腾讯ai说了啥
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-14 23:44
昨天腾讯收入微超市场预期.capex 比彭博预测高,但环比下降了一些。 市场最关心对AI的表述。 对ai的定位: A:通用型智能体AI可以通过调用工具和多步骤操作完成复杂任务,腾讯正在"元宝"、"艾玛"等原生AI产 品中培育这种能力。随时间推移,AI将从简单问答逐步进化到具备长链条思考、推理和跨应用操作能 力。在微信生态中,腾讯还可以构建另一种代理AI,通过整合社交关系链、公众号、视频号、小程序 等组件,形成与其他通用型智能体AI差异化的产品。比如用户可以通过AI直接调用微信生态内数百万 小程序的商业服务能力,这在其他平台难以复制,未来可能成为腾讯的差异化产品。 关于商业模式,广告业务已通过AI提升精准投放获得增长,AI能够增强广告精准投放能力,直接转化 为更多的广告收入。交易场景与广告的联动效应也日益显著。广告直接促成交易,进而体现广告价值。 而GPU租赁目前优先级较低,属于新兴领域,更像是转售业务,当GPU供应紧张时,租赁业务并非腾讯 的首选。 订阅制并非中国AI业务的主要模式,目前所有人都在免费提供AI服务,因此国外的订阅模式 并不适用于国内电商领域的主流AI商业模式。 对GPU的采购: Q:管理层如何 ...
cutting同时 推理价格涨了
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-13 23:30
Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is projected to be a significant year for layoffs due to AI, with companies implementing single-digit percentage layoffs while simultaneously experiencing an increase in rental prices for inference chips [1] Group 1 - Companies are expected to implement layoffs in the single-digit percentage range in 2025 due to the impact of AI [1] - The rental prices for inference chips, specifically A10 and T4, have been rising recently, indicating a shift in demand despite layoffs [1] - A10 and T4 chips are limited to inference tasks and cannot be used for training, highlighting a specific market niche for these products [1]
cutting workforce 裁员
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-13 23:12
学长前辈调侃 还好,都是低个位数裁员。 虽然但是,目前就业确实挺难。 前几年进个微软 挺轻松的,现在学校不错,offer难度挺大。 最近的新闻是 微软宣布裁员3%。年初meta宣布计划裁员5%。 Google一直在裁,24年一口气裁1.2w,裁了6%。 23-24年是为了降本增效裁员,25年里面的前辈说,开始因为AI裁员了。Ai能替代较多岗位。其实赔偿 也不算多。好在创投还比较活跃,出来后很多去了创新公司。 上午刚跟 业内大厂的人咨询 就业的问题。 谈到了2023年以来的西海岸裁员的事儿。 ...
关于agent的2个事
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-13 10:17
2025 业内普遍认为 agent元年,大小厂商都在卷,垂类和通用都在卷。算力卷了,也该来点应用了 国产 AI 智能体 Manus 开放注册:Manus 宣布向所有人开放注册,所有注册用户每日均可免费执行一 项任务,并获得 300 积分的奖励,新用户还将一次性获得 1000 积分的额外馈赠。 是的,之前被骂骗子的那个公司正式回来了(仅限海外版),之前本号发文力挺他。目前依然没有找到 超越他的,同时和注册用过的一些用户交流了一下,依然是基本正面反馈。 月费分别为19美元、39美 元、199美元,对应基础功能扩展、算力优先调度、企业级API权限等服务。对应国内来说c端用户来说 有点小贵 OpenAI 宣布重磅更新:Sam Altman 发推称将发布重大更新,可能与 GPT - 4.5 模型、个性化助手系统 或多模态能力升级有关。此外,OpenAI 于 5 月 13 日推出医疗开源测试基准 HealthBench,由 262 位全 球医生合作打造,包含 5000 段真实健康对话及 48562 个评分标准,覆盖多种医疗场景,推动医疗 AI 标准化评估 。 大厂自建健康团队搞垂类基准,一定是看到其中的空间了 。 Hea ...
联合声明发了
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-12 07:31
谈判第一天结束后,特朗普在其社交网络 Truth Social 上发帖称,谈判"非常好",并称 这是"以友好但建设性的方式进行的全面重启 谈判"。 15:27 ·II 5G C √ 何立峰还对中美贸易谈判取得的"重要进展" 表示赞赏。 他在日内瓦对记者说,与贝森特和格里尔的 会谈气氛坦诚、深入、实质性,与美国代表 团的讲话类似。 两国表示将于周一就此次会谈发表联合声 明。 外媒还是厉害!说周一发联合声明。就发了。 发完就恐怖了 想想明天!是不是AiI该回来了? 被锤了 1个多月了!55.... ...
实质性进展
小熊跑的快· 2025-05-11 22:28
北京和华盛顿都对周末在瑞士举行的闭门会谈取得的进展表示欢迎,此次会谈旨在缓和美国 总统唐纳德·特朗普 3 月份在全球大力征收关税以及中国采取报复措施所引发的贸易紧张局 势。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日在瑞士驻联合国日内瓦大使别墅举行会谈后告诉记者:"我 很高兴地报告,美国和中国在非常重要的贸易谈判中取得了实质性进展。" 两国表示将于周一就此次会谈发表联合声明。 谈判第一天结束后,特朗普在其社交网络 Truth Social 上发帖称,谈判"非常好",并称这 是"以友好但建设性的方式进行的全面重启谈判"。 中国国家通讯社新华社周六称此次会谈是"推动解决该问题的重要一步"。 何立峰还对中美贸易谈判取得的"重要进展"表示赞赏。 他在日内瓦对记者说,与贝森特和格里尔的会谈气氛坦诚、深入、实质性,与美国代表团的 讲话类似。 他补充道:"会谈富有成果。" 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔也参加了与中国国务院副总理何立峰为期两天的 闭门会谈 。格 里尔表示,双方的分歧"可能没有想象的那么大"。 ...