[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电子 2024 年 07 月 11 日 AI 耳机加速落地,看好交互能 力提升下硬件的投资机遇 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 电子 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号:S0120522060001 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号:S0120524010003 邮箱:chenyx5@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 电子 沪深300 -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦证券研究所 事件:2024 年 7 月 10 日,三星发布两款耳机新品——Galaxy Buds3 Pro 与 Galaxy Buds3。其中 Samsung Galaxy Buds 3 Pro 耳机主打 AI,具备自适应降噪、环境 分析等功能,并能够配合 Galaxy 手机完成即时口译,解放更多 AI 功能。 AI 耳机加速落地,人机交互交互能力提升。Galaxy Buds3 Pro 具有三个亮点: 1)可以通过 AI 算法对每个人的耳朵 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 铜 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|--------------------------|-------| | | 2024 年 07 月 11 | 日 | | | | | | 铜行业跟踪： 铜 | 铜价创新 | 24Q2 | | | | | | 高， Q3TC 优于大市（维持） | 骤降，供需持续紧张 | | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 张崇欣 资格编号：S0120522100003 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谷瑜 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 37% 49% 61% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 铜 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《紫金矿业（601899.SH）：24H1 业绩预告同比大增，量价齐升》， 2024.7.9 2.《金诚信（603979.S ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 晶晨股份(688099.SH) 2024 年 07 月 11 日 买入(维持) 所属行业:电子/半导体 当前价格(元):66.77 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号:S0120524010003 邮箱:chenyx5@tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号:S0120522060001 投资要点 市场表现 晶晨股份 沪深300 -57% -46% -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) 22.07 13.21 48.41 相对涨幅(%) 25.03 18.61 49.45 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《晶晨股份(688099.SH):业绩高速 增长,逆周期加大研发,扩张产品矩 阵》,2024.4.16 2.《晶晨股份(688099.SH):Q2 业绩 环比大幅提升,多产品线助力公司重 回上行通道》,2023.8.16 Q2 收入创季度新高,前期投入收获期或至 晶晨股份 2024H1 业绩预告点 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The company continues to solidify its leading position in traditional e-commerce agency services and e-commerce live streaming services, driving strong performance growth [4] - AI empowerment and brand management are expected to bring vast growth opportunities [4] - The company has achieved significant growth in its brand incubation business, with a 30%+ increase in business scale for the CUMLAUDE brand [18] - The company has officially changed its name to "Qingmu Technology" and is leveraging AI to enhance efficiency across various operational aspects, including customer service, design, store operations, and live streaming [24] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 1,173 million yuan in 2024E to 2,078 million yuan in 2026E, with a YOY growth rate of 21.3%, 32.4%, and 33.8% respectively [25] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 153 million yuan in 2024E to 318 million yuan in 2026E, with a YOY growth rate of 193.7%, 52.4%, and 36.3% respectively [25] - Gross margin is projected to rise from 46.0% in 2024E to 47.4% in 2026E [20] - ROE is expected to improve from 9.9% in 2024E to 15.1% in 2026E [20] Business Highlights - In the traditional e-commerce agency services sector, the company has maintained its strong position in the apparel industry, particularly in the sports and outdoor apparel category, achieving rapid growth [4] - The company has won multiple awards from Alimama, including the "Omni-Channel Business Ecosystem Partner Award" and "Live Streaming Breakthrough Award" [4] - In the e-commerce live streaming sector, the company has expanded its high-quality customer base and improved service levels, leading to significant growth in this segment [4] - During the 618 shopping festival, the company ranked 3rd in the sports and outdoor category for store live streaming, with a 125% YoY increase in GMV and a 106% YoY increase in penetration rate [4] AI and Technology Integration - The company has upgraded its data platform with AI technology, developing "Qingmu Qingling" to enhance efficiency in customer service, design, store operations, and live streaming [24] - AI applications include generating product highlights, automatic customer service responses, intelligent image and video editing, and virtual digital live streaming [24] Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of 16.24-37.78 yuan [5] - The current stock price is 29.35 yuan [16] Industry and Sector - The company operates in the e-commerce sector, specifically within the internet retail and brand management space [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Views - The company, now renamed "Qingmu Technology," is leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with significant growth expected in its business segments [14]. - The brand incubation business is showing growth, with a notable increase in sales for the joint brand CUMLAUDE, achieving over 30% growth in internal business scale [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading internet e-commerce service provider, with a strong foothold in the apparel sector and a promising second growth curve through brand incubation and cross-border expansion [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, projecting a range of 60 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.27% to 69.48% [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 1.173 billion, 1.553 billion, and 2.078 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.3%, 32.4%, and 33.8% [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 153 million, 233 million, and 318 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 193.7%, 52.4%, and 36.3% [5]. Market Performance - The company has shown a relative performance improvement compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 7.23% over one month and 18.40% over three months [1]. - The stock price is currently at 29.35 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 2.73 billion yuan [1][17]. Business Segments - The traditional e-commerce operation service continues to strengthen its market position, particularly in the outdoor apparel sector, with significant awards received for its service capabilities [15]. - The e-commerce live streaming service has also seen substantial growth, with a 125% increase in GMV during the 618 shopping festival, solidifying its industry ranking [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of approximately 1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 35.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 110 million and 130 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 69.2% to 73.9% [6][7]. - Revenue decline is narrowing, with a 12.3% year-on-year decrease expected in Q2 2024, attributed to improved market conditions and customer payment cycles. However, profit margins are under pressure due to a higher proportion of lower-priced products and increased sales expenses [6][7]. - The company is focusing on long-term development through marketing reforms, emphasizing deepening market penetration in Hunan province and establishing model markets in other regions [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to be 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, down 5.3% year-on-year, with net profits expected to be 407 million yuan, a decrease of 25.8% [8][9]. - The gross profit margin is expected to decline to 73.9% in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [8][9]. - Key financial metrics for 2024 include an EPS of 1.25 yuan and a net asset return rate of 9.2% [8][9].

展望下半年预计 PPI 中枢可能较前期有所抬升，我们提示重点关注以下两个方 面： 宏观点评 风险提示：国际原油价格波动；猪肉等食品价格波动；宏观政策力度及节奏超预 期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------|-------|--------|-------------------------------|-------| | | | | | 2024 年 07 月 10 日 | | | | | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | | 四季度 | PPI 增速有望转正？ | | | | | —— | 2024 | 年 6 月通胀数据点评 | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | 宏观点评 高频数据走势反映北旱南涝对农作物价格影响有限。6 月前北方干旱对玉米影响 较大，豫中补灌区（如平顶山等）、豫南雨养区（如南阳、驻马店、信阳）受影 响较大1，价格方面，河南郑州玉米饲料原料价格自 5 月的 2296 元/吨上涨至 6 月 的 2412元/吨，6月环比+5.1%（前值为-0.4%），其余地区玉米价格暂未受天气影 响产生剧 ...

| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 明泰铝业（ 买入（维持） | 601677.SH ）：发布 6 | | 月经营快报， 所属行业：有色金属 / 工业金属 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 12.59 | 24H1 预告业绩大 | | 证券分析师 | 增 | 事件一：公司发布 2024 年半年报业绩预增公告，超预期。公司预计 2024 年 H1 实现归母净利 10-11 亿元，同比增加 1.97-2.97 亿元，增幅 25%-37%；预计实现 扣非归母净利 8.5-9.5 亿元，同比增加 2.10-3.10 亿元，增幅 33%-48%。2024Q2 预计实现归母净利 6.38-7.38 亿元，环比 2024Q1 增长 76%-104%。业绩预增主 要系①产销规模稳步提升，2024H1 销量增长约 19%；②再生铝保级应用优势不 断突显，使用比例不断扩大，提升单吨盈利空间；③出海战略成效初显。 长期规划产销规模达 200 万吨，再生 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xingrui Technology (002937.SZ) with a positive outlook on its growth potential in the automotive electronics sector [19]. Core Insights - Xingrui Technology has shown significant revenue growth, particularly in automotive electronics, which has become a major revenue driver, while the share of mold products and consumer electronics in total revenue has gradually decreased [2][6]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, including international and domestic leading clients, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, which is expected to continue driving revenue growth [6][9]. - The report highlights the continuous improvement in gross margin, attributed to the increasing revenue from high-margin automotive electronics and smart terminal businesses [9][12]. Financial Overview - The company's total operating revenue from 2019 to Q1 2024 is projected to grow from 1.023 billion to 2.006 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 41.16% in 2022 [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 138 million yuan in 2019 to 267 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [6]. - The gross margin from 2019 to 2023 has improved from 28.57% to 26.91%, with a notable recovery post-2021 due to increased sales in high-margin products [9][12]. Product Revenue Composition - Automotive electronics have become the primary revenue source, with a significant increase in its revenue share over the past three years, while the contributions from mold products and consumer electronics have decreased [2][6]. - The report indicates that the automotive electronics segment is expected to continue contributing significantly to the company's revenue growth, despite a slight decline in smart terminal revenue in 2023 [6]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the growing demand for embedded plastic components in the automotive sector, particularly in the context of the three-electric system (battery, motor, and electronic control) of new energy vehicles [37][48]. - The market for automotive electronic embedded plastic components is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27.6% from 2021 to 2025, indicating a robust growth outlook for the sector [64][70]. Competitive Advantages - Xingrui Technology's management team possesses extensive experience in precision manufacturing, which enhances its ability to capture market opportunities and drive growth [26]. - The company has established a strong R&D capability, enabling it to develop customized solutions in collaboration with key clients, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the market [80].

日本消费税课税范围广泛，税目设置多。日本消费税课税税目数量多，国税 涉及 15 种，地方税涉及 10 种，征税范围较大。此外，日本消费税涉及多个征税 环节，针对境内产品销售及服务提供，几乎涵盖所有行业，从制造到批发和零售。 消费税征收涉及各个消费领域，具有普遍性和连续性的特征。日本为减轻纳税人 在税务程序及税额上的负担等，制定了相应的免税条例：年度的应征税销售额在 1,000 万日元以下的经营者（上一会计年度前 6 个月的销售额超过 1,000 万日元 的以及已选为征税经营者的除外），在满足一定条件的情况下可免除其在此征税期 间内的纳税义务。 宏观深度报告 图 13：2023 年日本消费税占总税收的比例为 32.5%，过往消费税税率调整对税收收入的拉动作用不明显 2.1.3. 兼具扩税收和调理念作用 2.2. 中国台湾消费税：财税功能减弱，调节功能增强 23 / 49 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|------------------------------------------------- ...