Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 13 was 240,000, exceeding expectations of 229,000 and the previous value of 222,000[16] - The number of continuing jobless claims reached 1.867 million, marking the highest level since November 2021, indicating economic cooling[16] - The unemployment rate surged to 4.1%, prompting market expectations for an 88.5% probability of a rate cut in September[16] Semiconductor Industry - ASML's disappointing Q3 guidance has raised concerns, but TSMC's performance is not necessarily correlated, as TSMC continues to optimize existing equipment to reduce costs and improve margins[5] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant adjustments due to ASML's poor guidance and potential U.S. trade restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology to China[18] Market Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a summer decline in the U.S. stock market due to seasonal weakness and tight positioning, suggesting a potential self-fulfilling prophecy[19] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in high-performing sectors like semiconductors and explore opportunities in consumer, financial, industrial, and real estate sectors[19] Bitcoin and AI - Long-term optimism for Bitcoin remains, viewed as an effective hedge against fiat currency depreciation despite uncertainties regarding Trump's potential policies on cryptocurrency[6] - Nvidia's market cap could reach $49 trillion in 10 years if demand grows at 60% annually, though a 35%-40% price correction is also anticipated[8]

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 第一上海 公司评论 免责声明 第一上海或其一家或多家关联公司可能或已经，就本报告所载信息、评论或投资策略，发布不一 致或得出不同结论的其他报告或观点。 信息、意见和估计均按"现况"提供，不提供任何形式的 保证，并可随时更改，恕不另行通知。 在若干国家或司法管辖区，分发、发行或使用本报告可能会抵触当地法律、规定或其他注册/发牌 的规例。本报告不是旨在向该等国家或司法管辖区的任何人或单位分发或由其使用。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------|--------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 第一上海证券有限公司 | | | | | | 香港中环德辅道中 71 号 | | | | | 永安集团大厦 | 19 楼 | | | | 电话 | | : (852) 2522-2101 | | | | 传真 | | : (852) 2810-6789 | | | | 网址： | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Tesla [2] Core Insights - Tesla is expected to hold its Q2 2024 earnings call on July 23, 2024, at 4:30 PM Central Time [1] - Elon Musk confirmed the delay of the Robotaxi launch due to significant design changes requested for the vehicle [1] - Tesla aims to achieve mass production of the dry electrode 4680 battery by the end of this year, following improvements in process efficiency [1] - Tesla plans to complete the construction of its energy storage factory in Shanghai by 2025, with an expected annual production capacity of 10,000 Megapacks, totaling nearly 40 GWh [3] - Tesla has raised the prices of Model S and Model X in North America by $2,000, with new prices set at $74,990 and $89,990 for Model S, and $79,990 and $94,990 for Model X [4] - In the second week of July 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance registrations reached approximately 11,400 vehicles, marking a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 78% and a year-over-year increase of about 14% [5] Summary by Sections Earnings Call - Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings call is scheduled for July 23, 2024, at 4:30 PM Central Time [1] Product Launch and Development - The Robotaxi launch has been postponed due to design changes requested by Elon Musk [1] - The company is on track to achieve mass production of the dry electrode 4680 battery by the end of 2024 [1] Expansion Plans - Tesla's energy storage factory in Shanghai is set to be completed by 2025, with a production capacity of 10,000 Megapacks annually [3] Pricing Adjustments - Price increases for Model S and Model X in North America have been implemented, with specific new prices detailed [4] Sales Performance - Domestic insurance registrations for Tesla vehicles showed significant growth in July 2024 [5]

台積電(TSM) 更新報告 營收毛利率均超預期,先進封裝供不應求將持續至 2026 年 季度業績摘要:公司 24Q2 總收入 6735.1 億新臺幣,同比增長 40.1%,折合 208.2 億美元,高於公司上季度指引中值的 200.0 億美元,也高於彭博一致預期的 201.1 億美元。其中晶圓收入 6165.2 億新臺幣,7 納米以下的先進制程貢獻 50%的營收。本季 度公司總成本 3153.8 億新臺幣,毛利率 53.2%,同比下滑 0.9 個 百分點。經營利潤 2865.6 億新臺幣,同比增長 41.9%。淨利潤 2478.5 億新臺幣,同比增長 36.3%,折合 76.6 億美元,高於一 致預期的 72.1 億美元。攤薄後每 ADR 收益 1.48 美元,高於一致 預期的 1.39 美元。 先進制程產能供不應求,ASP 漲價在即:Q2 公司 7nm 及小於 7nm 的先進制程貢獻收入 67%,同比/環比分別增長 14/2 個百分點, 其中 3nm 制程貢獻收入 15%,環比增加 6 個百分點,主要因中國 大陸企業礦機訂單激增。公司 N2、N2P、A16 制程研發進展順 利,海外工廠建設將稀釋 2-3pc ...

哔哩哔哩(BILI.US/9626.HK) 更新报告 买入 2024 年 7 月 18 日 《三谋》驱动下半年游戏业务回暖,Q3 Non-GAAP 运营利润转正 曹凌霁 +852-25321539 Rita.cao@firstshanghai.com.hk 韩啸宇 +852-25222101 Peter.han@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 行业 TMT 业绩摘要:Q1 收入 56.6 亿元,同比上升 11.7%,略高于市场一致预 期。毛利率 28.3%,同比提升6.5pcts,主要得益于高毛利广告业务占 比提升以及成本端的优化;经营利润率-14.5%,同比收窄 12.6%。 GAAP 净亏损 7.6 亿元;non-GAAP 净亏损 4.4 亿元,同比收窄 55.8%, 略高于市场一致预期的亏损 5.0 亿元。下季度营收有望实现双位数增 长,毛利率环比略有提升,预计将在 Q3 实现 Non-GAAP 运营利润的盈 亏平衡。 广告及直播业务增长强劲,积极开拓更多广告场景:Q1 广告收入同比 增长 31.2%达 16.7 亿元,其中效果广告收入同比增长 50%,当前包括 搜索、内容、商业广告 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $33.08, representing a potential upside of 15.38% from the last closing price [34][70]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, achieving $2.225 billion in 2023, a 16.75% increase year-over-year, driven by both commercial and government sectors [34][54]. - The introduction of the AIP platform and Bootcamp training has effectively expanded the customer base, particularly in the commercial sector, which saw a 20.23% increase in revenue [36][63]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a government-centric revenue model to a more balanced approach, with commercial clients now contributing a larger share of total revenue [36][34]. Revenue Analysis - The revenue composition has shifted, with U.S. government revenue contributing 57-65% of total income, while commercial revenue is steadily increasing [34][36]. - The top 20 clients' revenue contribution has increased, averaging $49 million per client, but their share of total revenue has decreased to 51.4% by the end of 2022, indicating a diversification in the customer base [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 80.62% in 2023, up from 78.56% in 2022, attributed to cost optimization and increased customer volume [6][34]. - The company turned a profit in 2023, achieving a net income of $210 million after several years of losses, marking a significant turnaround [10][11]. Customer Acquisition Strategy - The customer acquisition model is structured in three phases: acquisition, expansion, and scaling, with a focus on demonstrating platform value through low-cost trials [12][13]. - The Bootcamp training program has been pivotal in onboarding over 900 clients, enhancing awareness of the platform's capabilities [8][73]. Market Position and Competition - The company operates in a competitive landscape with key rivals including C3.AI and Snowflake, but maintains a strong position due to its established government relationships and high gross margins [27][34]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for the company is estimated at $119 billion, with $56 billion in the commercial sector and $63 billion in government [27][34]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in both government and commercial sectors, with projected revenues of $2.713 billion in 2024, $3.254 billion in 2025, and $3.888 billion in 2026 [66][66]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to increase demand for the company's services in defense and intelligence [34][27].

李京霖 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk + 852 25321962 行业 市值 总股本 52 周高/低 每股账面值 股价表现 2024 年 7 月 16 日 星期二 腾讯《地下城与勇士：起源》登顶 6 月全球手游畅销榜 根据 Sensor Tower 商店情报平台显示，《地下城与勇士：起源》位居 6 月全球手游 畅销榜第一，《王者荣耀》、《和平精英》、《金铲铲之战》位居二三四名。 由腾讯发行的《地下城与勇士：起源》自 5 月 21 日正式公测后，连续 38 天位居国 内 iPhone 总榜和手游畅销榜的双榜首。截至 7 月 10 日，其在中国 iOS 市场的收入 已超 4 亿美元，同时登顶 6 月全球手游畅销榜，终结了过去 7 个月《MONOPOLY GO!》 对该榜单的垄断。 2024 年 6 月共 37 个中国厂商入围全球手游发行商收入榜 TOP100，合计收入 19.2 亿美元，占本期全球 TOP100 手游发行商收入 37%，腾讯蝉联第一。 腾讯首款开放世界赛车手游《极品飞车：集结》7 月 11 日公测 2024 年微信小游戏开发者大会将于 7 月 16 日在北京举办 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 16 日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 特斯拉 Robotaxi 发布时间可能推迟至 10 月 此前埃隆·马斯克在 X 上宣布 Robotaxi 将于 8 月 8 日亮相。然而,据彭博社 报道,知情人士透露发布会已推迟到 10 月,延期已经在内部进行了通知,此次 延迟是由于 Robotaxi 项目团队需要更多时间来重新设计车辆的部分元素。 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 特斯拉欧洲上调 Model 3 售价,特斯拉以色列 Model 3/Y 降价 受中国生产的汽车的低价压力,欧盟正在利用关税策略阻止中国制造的电动汽车 涌入欧盟国家,欧盟的关税将直接影响在中国生产并运往欧盟国家的所有电动汽 车。特斯拉受影响将涨价 1,500 欧元,即 1,622 美元。目前 Model 3 各配置价 格如下: Model 3 后驱版:现价 42,490 欧元。 Model 3 长续航版:现价 51,490 欧元。 Model 3 高性能版:现价 58,490 欧元。 此外 ...

波司登(3998.HK) 更新报告 买入 2024 年 07 月 11 日 23/24 财年业绩增长亮丽,配售事项不会对集团构成重大影响 王柏俊 + 852 2532 1915 Patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 2023/2024 财年业绩概览:截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的全年业绩,公司实现营业收入 232 亿元 (人民币,下同)、同比增加 38.4%(主要受益于品牌羽绒服的快速增长),毛利率比去年 同期提升 0.1PCT 到 59.6%,经营利润率同比提升 2.1PCT 至 18.9%(受益于营运效率的提 升,良好的费用控制及女装业务的经营亏损和商誉减值大幅减少),归母净利润 30.7 亿 元、同比增加 43.7%,归母净利率同比提升 0.5PCT 至 13.2%,拟派末期股息每股 20.0 港 仙,全年派息比率为 81.1%。存货周转天数有效降低,回到 115 天的正常水平;受益于一体 化的营运及快速补货的能力。持有净现金为120.5亿,资产负债水平健康。总体业绩亮丽。 羽绒服业务表现依然出色,贴牌加工及女装录得双位数的增长:分业务:1)品牌羽绒服业 务收入 1 ...

行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 12 日 星期五 邹瀚逸 +852-25321539 Robin.zou@firstshanghai.com.hk 李羚玮 +852-25321539 david.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 +852 25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 煤炭行业 【行业评论】 煤炭板块点评 中国神华中期业绩预告归母利润下降: 公司中期业绩预告归母利润下降 8.3-13.8%,归母净利润 318-338 亿(H 股)。降 幅相较 24 年 Q1(-14%)有所缩窄,主要由于 23 年 Q1 是煤价高位,今年煤价降幅 较大。按照 24 年按照 23 年下半年的煤价预测,下半年的利润大致在 270 亿的水平, 全年预计利润在 590-600 亿水平(H 股),低于预期的 620 亿。主要原因预计是煤 价下降、煤化工 5 月停工导致上半年产量下降 25%左右以及火电增速由于水电出力 导致放缓。整体公司半年业绩报降幅在 10%左右,低于同业 30-60%的 ...