First Shanghai Securities

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 石药集团:集采致短期承压增速放缓,新产品陆续获批未来可期
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-10-07 06:19
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 9.76, indicating a potential upside of 56.9% from the current price of HKD 6.22 [2][3].   Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue growth of 1.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching HKD 16.28 billion. The gross profit was HKD 11.65 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 71.6% [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is facing short-term pressure on growth due to centralized procurement, but the approval of new products is expected to drive future growth [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the growth in the neurology segment, particularly with the approval of Mingfule for cerebral infarction, which is anticipated to boost sales significantly [1][2].   Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was HKD 16.28 billion, with a gross profit of HKD 11.65 billion and a gross margin of 71.6% [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 2.02 billion, with a net profit margin of 18.5% [1]. - The oncology segment saw a significant decline in revenue, down 10.2% to HKD 2.68 billion, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [2].   Segment Analysis - The report details revenue contributions from various segments:    - The pharmaceutical segment generated HKD 13.55 billion (+4.8% YoY)   - The vitamin C raw material segment saw a decline of 5.4% to HKD 0.98 billion   - The antibiotic raw material segment decreased by 6.4% to HKD 0.87 billion   - The functional food segment experienced a significant drop of 25.2% to HKD 0.88 billion [1][2]. - The neurology segment achieved a revenue of HKD 5.236 billion (+15.0% YoY), driven by the new product approvals [1][2].   Future Outlook - The report indicates that multiple new products are expected to be launched, which could help the company recover from the current sales decline caused by centralized procurement [2]. - The approval of PD-1 Enlansumab for second-line cervical cancer and other products is anticipated to enhance the company's growth trajectory in the coming years [2].
 卓越教育集团:素质教育带动收入超预期,合约负债同比高增
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-30 07:38
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.60, indicating a potential upside of 94.4% from the current price of HKD 2.88 [1].   Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth driven by quality education services, with total revenue for FY24H1 reaching HKD 3.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68.1% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for FY24H1 was HKD 0.54 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 168.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company's contract liabilities have increased by 183.8% year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for future financial performance [1]. - The quality education segment has become the main growth engine, contributing HKD 1.23 billion in revenue, a growth of 31.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company has doubled its employee count to 1,785, supporting its rapid growth [1].   Financial Performance Overview - For FY24H1, the company reported a gross profit margin of 44.96%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The operating profit margin improved significantly, with net profit margin rising to 23.4% from 17.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects revenue to reach HKD 10.91 billion in FY24, with a year-on-year growth of 123% [1]. - Forecasted net profit for FY24 is projected at HKD 185.2 million, with continued growth expected in subsequent years [2].   Business Strategy and Development - The company is actively optimizing its quality education courses and has successfully obtained non-profit school operation licenses in Guangzhou [1]. - New non-academic products have been launched, including "Fun Little Reporter" and "Literary Aesthetics," aligning with educational policies [1]. - The company is focused on compliance and transformation in response to regulatory changes, aiming to return to normal operational development [1].   Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the education and training industry in South China, with expectations of continued market share growth [1]. - The report anticipates that the company will gradually return to a normal growth trajectory, supported by its strategic initiatives and market demand [1].
 中国生物制药:创新转型进入收获期,肿瘤布局逐步完善深挖产品价值

 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-29 10:37
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 3.79, indicating a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of HKD 3.30 [3][4].   Core Insights - The company is entering a harvest period for its innovative transformation, with a focus on oncology and a gradual improvement in product value [2]. - The risk from centralized procurement has been largely mitigated, and the company continues to see growth in its innovative products, achieving a revenue of HKD 158.7 billion in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [2][3]. - The oncology segment generated revenue of HKD 53.6 billion, up 19.5%, accounting for 33.8% of total revenue [2].   Summary by Sections  Financial Performance - The company reported a gross profit of HKD 130.3 billion, with a gross margin of 82.1%, reflecting an increase of 11.5% [2]. - Research and development expenses amounted to HKD 25.8 billion, a rise of 10.9%, with an expense ratio of 17% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached HKD 30.2 billion, a significant increase of 139.7%, while the adjusted net profit was HKD 15.4 billion, up 14.0% [2].   Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company has accelerated its innovation efforts, focusing on four key areas: oncology, liver disease, respiratory, and surgical analgesia [3]. - In the first half of the year, the company received approval for three innovative drugs and one biosimilar, enhancing its product offerings [3]. - The oncology pipeline is particularly strong, with multiple drugs in clinical research and expected approvals that will drive future revenue growth [3].   Market Position and Valuation - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 620.1 billion and has issued 18.79 billion shares [4]. - The report uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) model for valuation, with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [3].


 康哲药业:24年上半年环比重回增长
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-29 10:37
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 11.3, indicating a potential upside of 50.4% from the current price [2][3].   Core Insights - The company experienced a 6.1% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in the first half of 2024, although year-on-year revenue decreased by 21.7% to RMB 3.61 billion [2]. - The sales of three national procurement products saw a significant decline of 49.2% year-on-year, while revenue from exclusive and innovative products reached RMB 2.41 billion, accounting for 56% of total revenue [2]. - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in performance starting from the second half of 2024, driven by the commercialization of innovative products [2].   Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 9.15 billion, with a projected decline to RMB 8.01 billion in 2023 and further to RMB 7.60 billion in 2024, before recovering to RMB 8.75 billion in 2025 and RMB 9.83 billion in 2026 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from RMB 3.26 billion in 2022 to RMB 2.40 billion in 2023, and further to RMB 1.75 billion in 2024, before increasing again in subsequent years [4]. - The company plans to launch 10-12 new drugs between 2025 and 2027, with a focus on innovative products that are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [2].
 高途:收入增长超预期,投入加大利润承压
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-26 07:38
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of $5.00, indicating an upside potential of 81.6% from the last closing price of $3.05 [2][4].   Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 38.7% year-on-year for FY24Q2, reaching 1.009 billion RMB, exceeding previous guidance [2]. - Non-GAAP operating loss was 453 million RMB, compared to a profit of 50 million RMB in the same period last year, indicating pressure on profitability due to increased investments [2]. - Cash reserves stood at 4.1 billion RMB with no interest-bearing debt, and comparable cash collections grew over 87% year-on-year to 1.65 billion RMB [2]. - The K9 business segment showed significant growth, accounting for over 20% of total revenue, with cash collections from new students increasing by over 200% [2]. - The company expects FY24Q3 revenue growth of 50.5%-53%, projecting revenue between 1.188 billion and 1.208 billion RMB [2].   Financial Performance Summary - FY24Q2 revenue was 1.009 billion RMB, up 38.7% year-on-year, surpassing the guidance of 908-928 million RMB [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY24Q2 was -453 million RMB, compared to a profit of 50 million RMB in the previous year [2]. - The company anticipates a deferred revenue growth of 71% year-on-year to 1.582 billion RMB for FY24Q3, which is expected to convert into revenue in the second half of FY24 [2]. - The gross margin for FY24Q1 was 69.0%, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from business expansion [2]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 82.7%, up 36.6 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting higher customer acquisition costs for the summer enrollment season [2].   Valuation and Future Outlook - The report adjusts the FY24 net profit forecast to -790 million RMB, indicating expected losses in the next 1-2 years due to significant upfront investments for expansion [2]. - The valuation is based on a discount rate of 12% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [2]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic online education sector, actively expanding its offline teaching network with nearly 100 teaching locations nationwide [2].
 中国神华:一体化运营布局熨平周期波动,盈利稳定彰显龙头本色


 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-25 08:22
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (1088) with a target price of HKD 40.45, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HKD 34.10 [1].   Core Views - The integrated operational layout of the company smooths out cyclical fluctuations, showcasing its stability as a leading player in the industry [1]. - The company's performance in the first half of the year met expectations, with revenue of CNY 168.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 32.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [1]. - The coal business demonstrated profitability stability under price pressure, with production reaching 163 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1].   Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was CNY 168.1 billion, down 0.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 32.8 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1]. - The coal segment's tax-adjusted profit decreased by 17.2% due to rising labor costs, with unit production costs at CNY 172 per ton, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company achieved a sales volume of 134.3 million tons in the coal business, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while the average price for long-term contracts remained stable, with a 2% year-on-year decline [1].   Operational Insights - The company's power generation segment generated revenue of CNY 44.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, although pre-tax profit decreased by 8.9% due to lower utilization hours and selling prices [1]. - The integrated coal and power operation model significantly alleviated profit pressure during coal price fluctuations, with expectations for stable profit levels in the long term [1]. - The company plans to release additional production capacity from new projects starting in 2028, contributing an estimated annual capacity of 30 million tons once fully operational [1].   Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's integrated operational model will continue to reflect strong profitability, with stable profit levels supported by long-term coal sales contracts and recovery in power generation [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to CNY 60.9 billion, CNY 61.4 billion, and CNY 61.9 billion respectively [1].



 招金矿业:业绩大幅增长,海外项目稳步推进,增产空间巨大
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-25 08:22
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Zhaojin Mining (1818) with a target price of **HKD 17.39**, representing a **26.2% upside** from the current price [1][3]   Core Views - Zhaojin Mining's performance has significantly improved, driven by **higher gold prices** and **increased production volume** [1] - The company's **overseas projects** are progressing steadily, with substantial potential for future production growth [1] - The **gold price** is expected to remain high, supported by **Fed rate cut expectations** and **central bank gold purchases**, providing a stable foundation for the company's performance [1]   Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Zhaojin Mining achieved **RMB 4.627 billion** in revenue, a **34.24% YoY increase**, and **RMB 553 million** in net profit attributable to shareholders, a **118.62% YoY surge** [1] - The company's **gold production** reached **13.18 tons**, up **12% YoY**, with self-produced gold at **9 tons** (+6.9% YoY) and smelted gold at **4.18 tons** (+24.8% YoY) [1] - The **cost per gram of gold** decreased by **RMB 4.7**, leading to a **3.72 percentage point increase** in gross margin [1]   Gold Price Trends - The **London gold spot price** reached **USD 2,322.7/oz** by the end of June 2024, up **over 13%** from the beginning of the year, breaking the **USD 2,300/oz** threshold [1] - The **Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 price** rose to **RMB 549.88/g**, a **14.4% increase** from the start of the year [1]   Production Expansion - Zhaojin Mining completed the **full acquisition of Tietuo Mining**, which has a **gold resource reserve of over 40 tons** and is expected to produce **4-5 tons annually** [1] - The company acquired a **70% stake in Ruihai Mining**, which owns the **largest single gold mine in China** (Haijing Gold Mine) with a **total gold resource of 562.37 tons** and **mineable reserves of 212.21 tons** [1] - The **Haijing Gold Mine** is expected to reach **15 tons of annual production** by 2027 [1]   Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts **net profit attributable to shareholders** of **RMB 1.25 billion** in 2024, **RMB 1.98 billion** in 2025, and **RMB 2.7 billion** in 2026 [1] - Revenue is projected to grow to **RMB 12.85 billion** in 2024, **RMB 15.85 billion** in 2025, and **RMB 19.41 billion** in 2026, with **YoY growth rates of 53%, 23%, and 23%**, respectively [2] - **EPS** is expected to increase to **RMB 0.37** in 2024, **RMB 0.58** in 2025, and **RMB 0.79** in 2026 [2]   Valuation Metrics - The target price of **HKD 17.39** is based on a **30x PE multiple** for 2025 [1] - The current **PE ratio** is **33.8x** for 2024, **21.4x** for 2025, and **15.6x** for 2026 [2]   Industry and Market Position - Zhaojin Mining operates in the **non-ferrous metals industry** and is positioned as a leading gold producer with significant **resource reserves** and **production capacity** [3] - The company's **major shareholders** include **Zhaojin Group (37.15%)** and **Zijin Mining (20%)** [3]
 万国黄金集团:公司评论:引进战略投资者紫金矿业子公司加速业务转型
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-24 05:38
 Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1].   Core Insights - The company is transitioning towards gold mining and processing as its main business focus, highlighted by its name change to "万国黄金集团有限公司" [1]. - The strategic partnership with Zijin Mining's subsidiary is expected to accelerate the development of the company's gold mining projects in the Solomon Islands [1]. - The company has significant mineral resources, including a designed annual processing capacity of over 3 million tons at the Jinling gold mine, which is projected to become a world-class gold mine [1][4].   Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a gold concentrate production of 22,256 tons, with gold ingots and concentrates accounting for over 50% of its revenue and gross profit [1]. - The company’s total revenue for the period ending June 30, 2024, was approximately RMB 927.86 million, with a pre-tax profit of RMB 355.54 million [3]. - The Jinling gold mine contributed RMB 260 million in pre-tax profit with a gross margin of 60.8% [4].   Project Development - The Jinling gold mine has a current ore reserve of 28.7 million tons with a gold grade of 1.32%, and it is still in the open-pit mining phase [4]. - Future plans include increasing the mining and processing volume to 2.5 million tons in 2024 and 3.8 million tons in 2025 [4]. - The company aims to reduce its gold production cost, currently at RMB 263 per gram, as production capacity increases and recovery rates improve [4].   Market Position - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 8.032 billion, with a share price of HKD 9.70 [1]. - The company’s stock has seen a 52-week high of HKD 10.02 and a low of HKD 2.73 [1].
 华润燃气:毛差显著改善,大幅提升中期派息

 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-19 07:10
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Gas (1193) with a target price of HKD 32.60, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HKD 28.15 [1].   Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its gross margin, leading to a substantial increase in interim dividends. The gross margin rose to HKD 0.54 per cubic meter, up from HKD 0.50 per cubic meter in the same period last year [1]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a year-on-year increase of 21.2% in core net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to HKD 34.6 billion, despite a 2.5% decline when excluding one-time gains from the previous year [1]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 52.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [1].   Summary by Sections  Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of HKD 52.08 billion in the first half of 2024, with contributions from gas sales, connection fees, and comprehensive services [1]. - The overall gross margin improved to 18.6%, marking the first increase since 2020 [1]. - The natural gas sales volume reached 209 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1].   Business Segments - The comprehensive services segment saw a revenue increase of 20.0% to HKD 17.6 billion, with segment profit rising by 22.1% to HKD 7.6 billion [1]. - The comprehensive energy business generated revenue of HKD 8.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 38.0% [1].   Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable capital expenditure, which will support ongoing shareholder returns. Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at HKD 105.9 billion, HKD 111.8 billion, and HKD 119.0 billion, respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be approximately HKD 57 billion, HKD 62 billion, and HKD 71 billion for the years 2024 to 2026 [1].
 澳博控股:第二季度业绩符合预期,「上葡京」市场占有率继续提升
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-18 06:12
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.90, representing a potential upside of 24.5% from the current price of HKD 2.33 [2].   Core Insights - The second quarter performance of the company met expectations, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in gross gaming revenue of 0.1% to HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 69.9% of the 2019 level [1]. - The market share of the company increased by 0.2 percentage points to 12.6% in the second quarter, with further improvement noted in July and August, reaching 13.5% [1]. - The performance of "The Venetian" and other self-operated venues showed mixed results, with "The Venetian" experiencing a 5.0% decline in gaming revenue, while other venues saw slight increases [1]. - "The Parisian" recorded a revenue of HKD 1.54 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.3%, and its EBITDA increased by 17.2% to HKD 104 million [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of Macau's gaming market, with long-term growth and competitive advantages anticipated from "The Parisian" [1].   Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported a net income of HKD 6,678.6 million, with a projected increase to HKD 27,911.4 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [3]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 1,727.0 million in 2023 to HKD 3,721.2 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 115.5% [3]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching HKD 288.3 million, compared to a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 [3]. - The company’s cash position is approximately HKD 34.3 billion, with net debt around HKD 235.3 billion [1].


