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 澳博控股:第二季度业绩符合预期,「上葡京」市场占有率继续提升
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-18 06:12
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.90, representing a potential upside of 24.5% from the current price of HKD 2.33 [2].   Core Insights - The second quarter performance of the company met expectations, with a slight quarter-on-quarter increase in gross gaming revenue of 0.1% to HKD 6.89 billion, recovering to 69.9% of the 2019 level [1]. - The market share of the company increased by 0.2 percentage points to 12.6% in the second quarter, with further improvement noted in July and August, reaching 13.5% [1]. - The performance of "The Venetian" and other self-operated venues showed mixed results, with "The Venetian" experiencing a 5.0% decline in gaming revenue, while other venues saw slight increases [1]. - "The Parisian" recorded a revenue of HKD 1.54 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.3%, and its EBITDA increased by 17.2% to HKD 104 million [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of Macau's gaming market, with long-term growth and competitive advantages anticipated from "The Parisian" [1].   Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported a net income of HKD 6,678.6 million, with a projected increase to HKD 27,911.4 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.1% [3]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 1,727.0 million in 2023 to HKD 3,721.2 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 115.5% [3]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching HKD 288.3 million, compared to a loss of HKD 2,009.8 million in 2023 [3]. - The company’s cash position is approximately HKD 34.3 billion, with net debt around HKD 235.3 billion [1].
 百果园集团:水果零售业务承压,直销业务持续高增
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-18 06:12
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **HKD 2.03**, representing a **34.6% upside** from the current price of HKD 1.51 [2][3]   Core Views - The company's **fruit retail business is under pressure**, with a **11.1% YoY decline** in revenue and a **66.1% YoY drop** in net profit in 1H24 [2] - **Direct sales business continues to grow rapidly**, with domestic and overseas direct sales increasing by **30.2% and 29.4% YoY**, respectively, driven by expanded market coverage and partnerships [2] - The company's **store count remains stable** at 6,025 as of June 30, 2024, with a net increase of 67 stores YoY [2] - The company has implemented a **new strategy** focusing on becoming a **high-quality fruit expert and leader**, which has shown initial success with **42 proprietary fruit brands** and a **16% share** of total retail sales [2] - The report forecasts **net profits of RMB 1.9/2.8/3.6 billion** for 2024-2026, driven by strategic adjustments and growth in direct sales and overseas C-end business [2]   Financial Performance - **Revenue** is expected to decline by **11.4% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 10,095.6 million, followed by a **4.4% increase** in 2025 and a **6.5% increase** in 2026 [1][6] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is projected to drop by **46.3% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 194.1 million, with a recovery of **43.2% YoY** in 2025 and **27.9% YoY** in 2026 [1][6] - **Basic EPS** is forecasted to decrease to **12.33 RMB cents** in 2024, recovering to **17.65 RMB cents** in 2025 and **22.58 RMB cents** in 2026 [1][6] - The **P/E ratio** is expected to rise to **12.2x** in 2024, then decline to **8.6x** in 2025 and **6.7x** in 2026 [1][6]   Business Segments - **Fruit and other food sales** accounted for **RMB 5.44 billion** in 1H24, down **11.1% YoY**, while **other income** grew by **72.1% YoY** to RMB 50 million [2] - **Franchise fees and franchise income** declined by **31.8% YoY** to RMB 70 million, and **membership income** dropped by **19.9% YoY** to RMB 40 million [2] - **Online channel revenue** fell by **61.1% YoY** to RMB 60 million, reflecting challenges in the retail environment [2]   Strategic Initiatives - The company has expanded its **supply chain efficiency** and **2B market share** through the acquisition of **Shenzhen Ban Guo**, targeting small and medium-sized fruit suppliers [2] - The **C-end overseas expansion** is expected to break the **store opening ceiling**, with the company announcing its official entry into overseas markets in September 2024 [2] - The company's **proprietary fruit brands** now account for **16% of total retail sales**, up **2 percentage points YoY**, with **5 new brands** launched in 1H24 [2] - **Gift sales** contributed **13.0%** of total sales in 1H24, up **2.4 percentage points** from 2023, driven by holiday promotions [2]   Industry Comparison - The company's **P/E ratio** of **6.0x** for 2024 is lower than the **simple average of 30.3x** for the retail industry, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The company's **CAGR for 2024-2026** is projected at **8.4%**, lower than the **23.1% average** for the retail industry but higher than some peers like **Tianhong Digital Commerce** (9.6%) [5] - The company's **PEG ratio** of **1.1x** for 2024 is in line with the industry average, suggesting balanced growth and valuation [5]
 舜宇光学科技:产品组合持续优化,盈利能力显著改善
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-18 06:12
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 57.3, indicating a potential upside of 31.65% from the current price of HKD 43.5 [1][3].   Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a revenue increase of 32.1% year-on-year to HKD 188.6 billion for the first half of 2024, and a net profit increase of 147.1% to HKD 10.8 billion [2][3]. - The mobile phone industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, and the company's product mix is continuously optimizing, leading to a forecasted increase in mobile lens shipments by 5-10% year-on-year [2][3]. - The automotive and AR/VR sectors are also expanding, with automotive revenue growing by 16.4% to HKD 28.8 billion and AR/VR revenue skyrocketing by 111.4% to HKD 9.9 billion [2][3].   Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 383.9 billion, HKD 437.8 billion, and HKD 478.8 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 22.7 billion, HKD 28.7 billion, and HKD 33.4 billion [3][5]. - The company maintains a gross margin of 17.2%, which is an increase of approximately 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous year, with operational expenses kept below 12% [2][5]. - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 476.24 billion and a share capital of 1.095 billion shares [4].
 中国海外发展:销售及利润规模双领先,商业收入稳步增长

 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-11 06:55
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 18.2 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 11.46 HKD [2][4].   Core Insights - The company achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 148.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, ranking first in equity sales [1]. - The company maintains a leading profit margin in the industry, with an overall gross margin of 22.1% and a core net profit of 10.64 billion RMB, despite a year-on-year decline of 23.0% [1]. - The company has a strong land reserve, with a total land bank of approximately 49.05 million square meters, ensuring future performance stability [1].   Summary by Sections  Sales and Profitability - The company reported a contract sales area of approximately 5.44 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%, while the contract average price increased by 21.7% to 27,279 RMB per square meter [1]. - The overall market share increased by 0.49 percentage points to 3.15%, with a focus on mainstream cities and prime locations [1].   Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, with a payout ratio increasing by 4 percentage points to 28.3% [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at approximately 56.1%, with a net debt ratio of about 38.7% and an average financing cost of around 3.5% [1].   Commercial Operations - The commercial operations revenue grew by 20.0% year-on-year to 3.54 billion RMB, with first-tier cities contributing 42% of this revenue [1]. - The shopping center business showed significant growth, with a rental rate of 96.6% and a year-on-year revenue increase of 57.6% to 1.11 billion RMB [1].   Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve core net profits of 22.3 billion RMB, 22.9 billion RMB, and 23.6 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [1].


 星盛商业:上半年业绩承压,维持高派息
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-11 06:54
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1.75, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 1.12 [1][2].   Core Insights - The company experienced an 8.1% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2024, despite an 8.8% increase in revenue to HKD 314 million. The gross profit decreased by 1.6% to HKD 162 million, with a gross margin of 51.6%, down 5.5 percentage points due to a higher proportion of lower-margin rental projects [1][3]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 50%, declaring an interim dividend of HKD 0.048 per share [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with cash on hand of HKD 1.466 billion, a 3.9% increase from the end of 2023, and generated cash income of HKD 17.55 million during the period [1][3].   Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported:   - Revenue: HKD 314 million, up 8.8% year-on-year   - Gross Profit: HKD 162 million, down 1.6% year-on-year   - Net Profit: HKD 89 million, down 8.1% year-on-year   - Gross Margin: 51.6%, down 5.5 percentage points [1][3]. - The company’s same-store sales increased by 8% and customer traffic rose by 16% during the same period, with an overall occupancy rate of 92.5% [1][3].   Project and Operational Insights - The company has opened two new rental projects in Guangzhou and Shanghai, bringing the total number of operational retail projects to 29, covering an area of 1.77 million square meters [1][3]. - The company has a project reserve of approximately 2.77 million square meters across 17 projects, with 44.2% of the area managed by third parties, indicating a solid growth trajectory [1][3].   Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of approximately HKD 157 million, HKD 198 million, and HKD 236 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2].
 华润电力:火电盈利逐步释放,新能源装机加速投产
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-10 06:40
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 24.5, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current price of HKD 20.6 [3][5].   Core Insights - The company's profitability is gradually improving, with a significant increase in profits from thermal power generation, while renewable energy profits are under pressure due to adverse weather conditions and declining electricity prices [2][3]. - The company plans to accelerate the commissioning of new renewable energy installations, with a target of adding 10 GW of new capacity by the end of the year [2][3].   Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 51.1 billion, with a net profit of HKD 9.363 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.9% [2]. - The thermal power business achieved a profit of HKD 2.7 billion, a substantial increase of 232% year-on-year, driven by a 10.7% decrease in fuel costs [2]. - Renewable energy core business profit decreased by 6.7% to HKD 5.556 billion, impacted by lower wind speeds and electricity prices [2]. - The company’s thermal power sales volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the gross margin for thermal power business improved by 9.6 percentage points [2].   Future Projections - The company expects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be HKD 14.782 billion, HKD 16.803 billion, and HKD 18.837 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 14%, and 12% [3][6]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is HKD 106.66 billion, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [6][7].   Market Position - The company is positioned in a strong market, with most of its power plants located in regions with high electricity demand, which is expected to sustain its profitability [3]. - The company’s governance capabilities are highlighted as a strength, particularly in maintaining leading profitability in the renewable energy sector despite current challenges [3].
 中国海洋石油:桶油成本持续下降,增储上产成效明显

 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-10 05:09
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 26.43, indicating a potential upside of 38.5% from the current price of HKD 19.08 [2].   Core Insights - The company achieved a record net profit of HKD 797 billion in the first half of the year, representing a 25% year-on-year increase. Revenue for the same period was HKD 2268 billion, up 18% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas production reached 362.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, with oil prices averaging USD 80.32 per barrel, up 9.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company continues to focus on increasing reserves and production, aiming for a reserve replacement ratio of no less than 130% and a production target of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2024 [1].   Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue from oil liquid products, which reached HKD 1613 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, while natural gas product revenue was HKD 239 billion, up 9.7% year-on-year [1]. - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent decreased to USD 27.75, a 1.5% decline year-on-year, with operational costs down by 4.8% due to increased production and currency fluctuations [1]. - The interim dividend for 2024 was set at HKD 0.74 per share, a historical high for the same period, with a payout ratio of 40.3%, reflecting a 25.4% increase year-on-year [1].   Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at HKD 451.4 billion, HKD 471.0 billion, and HKD 481.7 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 145.2 billion, HKD 151.2 billion, and HKD 155.4 billion [2][4]. - The report anticipates an 8x PE valuation for 2024, supporting the target price of HKD 26.43 [2].
 中国石油股份:天然气业务增长迅猛,业绩分红创同期新高

 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-10 05:09
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 8.07, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of HKD 5.93 [1].   Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in interim dividends, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 45% [1]. - The natural gas business is experiencing rapid growth, contributing to revenue and profit increases [1]. - The oil and gas segment reported revenue of RMB 4,497 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, while the chemical segment turned a profit of RMB 3.126 billion, recovering from a loss in the previous year [1]. - The company is focusing on green transformation through acquisitions, such as the 100% stake in CNOOC Power [1].   Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,553.9 billion, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 88.6 billion, an increase of 3.9% [1]. - The average oil price increased, and domestic natural gas business volume and prices rose, leading to revenue and profit growth [1]. - The company processed 693 million barrels of crude oil, a 3% increase year-on-year, while total oil equivalent production reached 906 million barrels, up 1.3% [1]. - Natural gas sales reached 147.2 billion cubic meters, a 5.8% increase, with revenue from this segment growing by 7.9% [1].   Business Segment Analysis - The refining business faced challenges, with operating profit declining by 43% to RMB 10.5 billion, while the chemical segment saw a turnaround with a profit of RMB 3.126 billion [1]. - The sales of refined oil products decreased by 2% to 79.05 million tons due to the growth of domestic electric vehicles and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The company is actively reducing international procurement costs in the natural gas sector, anticipating continued growth in the second half of the year [1].


 哔哩哔哩-W:广告及游戏业务驱动毛利率稳健增长,Q3 Non-GAAP运营利润盈利
 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-10 04:06
 Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Bilibili with a target price of $21.00 USD / 163.77 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 36.61% / 35.01% from the current stock price [2][6][3].   Core Insights - Bilibili's Q2 revenue reached 6.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, slightly above market expectations. The gross margin improved to 29.9%, up 6.8 percentage points, primarily driven by the growth in high-margin advertising and gaming businesses [2][4]. - The company expects to achieve Non-GAAP operating profit in Q3, with revenue projected to grow by 22.4% year-on-year to 7.1 billion RMB, and gross margin expected to increase to 35% [2][4]. - The advertising business is benefiting from increased demand in gaming and e-commerce, with annual advertising revenue expected to grow by 24% [2][4]. - User metrics show steady growth, with DAU increasing by 5.2% to 100 million and MAU growing by 3.7% to 340 million [2][4]. - The gaming segment is projected to generate significant revenue, with expectations of 2.5 billion RMB in 2024 and 5 billion RMB in 2025 from the game "Three Kingdoms" [2][4].   Financial Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31 is forecasted to grow from 22.53 billion RMB in 2023 to 31.25 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% [4][5]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of 1.3 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 1.58 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit margins turning positive by 2025 [4][5]. - The gross margin is projected to increase significantly from 24.2% in 2023 to 34.6% by 2026, indicating improved operational efficiency [4][5].   Market Position - Bilibili's market capitalization stands at $6.365 billion USD, with major shareholders including Chen Rui at 12% [3][4]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $18.19 and a low of $8.80, indicating volatility in its market performance [3][4].
 华润置地:大资管平台转型步伐加快,带动业绩平稳实现

 First Shanghai Securities· 2024-09-10 04:06
 Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 34, representing a potential upside of 65.8% from the current price of HKD 21.0 [1][2].   Core Insights - The company experienced a 4.7% year-on-year decline in core net profit for H1 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 79.1 billion, an 8.4% increase compared to the previous year. The development business revenue was RMB 59.1 billion, up 8.3%, while recurring business revenue grew by 9.0% to RMB 20 billion, accounting for 25.3% of total revenue [1][2]. - The company’s sales performance showed resilience despite a 26.7% decline in sales revenue to RMB 124.7 billion, with a 69% equity ratio. The average selling price decreased by 1.4% to RMB 23,930 per square meter, but the company maintained a strong market position, ranking among the top four in the industry [1][2]. - The recurring business's profit contribution increased to 51.4%, becoming a significant growth driver for the company. The shopping center segment saw a 21.9% increase in retail sales, with a 30% rise in rental income [1][2].   Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 25.2%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year, primarily due to a 4.6 percentage point decline in the development business gross margin to 12.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 25% to RMB 10.2 billion [1][2]. - The company’s financial structure remains robust, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.54 and a total interest-bearing debt ratio of 38.9%. The average financing cost decreased by 32 basis points to 3.24%, positioning the company among the lowest in the industry [1][2]. - The company’s asset management scale increased by 5.1% to RMB 449.1 billion, supporting its value release and business transformation in the evolving industry landscape [1][2].


