资料来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 资料来源: 彭博 买入 2024 年 4 月 10 日 归母净利润同比增长 10.9%，提升派息：2023 年公司营业收入为 6.35 亿元，同比增长 13%；毛利 3.34 亿元，同比增长 6.6%；归母净利 润为 1.71 亿元，同比增长 10.9%。毛利率为 52.5%，同比下降 3.2 个 百分点，主要由于整租模式毛利率下降 7.6 个百分点（受新开业租金 减免及租赁准则影响），而品牌及输出管理模式毛利率提升 2.5 个百 分点，委托管理模式毛利率维持稳定。随着疫情结束，市场消费缓慢 复苏，公司盈利能力持续提升。公司持续加大轻资产项目应收款项催 收，全年实现经营性现金净流入 2.99 亿元，净现比为 1.75。期末在 手现金 14.37 亿元，同比增长 13%，在手现金充足。公司提升派息率 至 70%，每股派息 13 港仙，同比增长 23.8%。 在营项目表现稳健，储备充足：公司作为大湾区领先的商用物业运 营服务供应商，截至 23 年末已开业零售商业项目数量 27 个，面积达 165 万平方，筹备中项目 20 个，未来发展具备确定性。受疫情复苏、 两地通关影响，2 ...

吉利汽车（175） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月10日 毛利率触底反弹，盈利能力将持续改善  毛利率反弹，核心净利润大幅增长：公司实现全年实现营业收入 邹瀚逸 1798.5 亿元，同比+21%；实现毛利 274.2 亿元，同比+31.2%， 毛利率触底反弹 1.2pct.至 15.3%。归母净利润 53.1 亿元，同比 852-33367861 +1%，剔除出 22 年公司收购韩国雷诺带来的一次性收益后，23 Robin.zou@firstshanghai.com.hk 年公司核心净利润同比大幅增长 51%。公司净现金水平达到 284 亿元，同比+46%。 陈晓霞  2023 年销量创历史新高，新能源车占比提升：2023 年公司销量 创历史新高的 168.7 万辆，同比+18%，分品牌来看:吉利品牌 852-25321956 130.96 万辆，同比+16%；领克 22.03 万辆，同比+22%；极氪 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 11.87 万辆，同比+65%。主要得益于三方面：1）在燃油车方 面，依托 CMA 平台优秀表现，中国“星”系列销量销量稳步提 主要数据 高。2） ...

舜宇光学（2382） 更新报告 买入 2023年04月09日 盈利能力继续承压，未来手机业务回暖，车载光学和 VR/AR 新曲线 陈晓霞 稳 中 有进 852-25321956  手机业务受挫，盈利能力继续承压：公司 2023 年全年实现收入 316.8 亿人民币，同比减少 4.6%。毛利率为 14.5%，较去年同期下降约 5.4 个 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 百分点。归母净利润 11.0 亿元，同比减少 54.3%，符合此前公司盈利 预警中净利润减少约 50%-55%的预期，主要是全球智能手机需求继续疲 主要数据 软和光学降规降配趋势延续导致公司手机相关产品 ASP 和毛利同比下 行业 TMT 滑。 股价 38.55港元  未来手机业务回暖，车载光学和 VR/AR 新曲线稳中有进：光学零件业务 目标价 45.00港元 收入同比略微增长 0.9%至 95.6 亿，分部毛利率由 33.4%下滑至 28.4%，其中手机镜头出货量达 11.7 亿件，同比小幅下降 1.8%，高端 （+ 16.73%） 市场依旧低迷，6P 及以上镜头出货量同比下降 20.0%。随着智能手机市 股票代 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 41.3, representing a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HKD 33.9 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady performance in FY23 with a revenue of RMB 38.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The EBIT recorded was RMB 6.96 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 33% due to a low base effect [1][3]. - The beer business is focused on premiumization, with a revenue of RMB 36.87 billion in FY23, up 5% year-on-year. The average selling price increased by 4% to RMB 3,306 per thousand liters, driven by product mix upgrades [1][3]. - The white liquor business has successfully undergone a transformation, achieving a revenue of RMB 2.07 billion in FY23, with an EBIT of RMB 130 million. The company has effectively reduced inventory levels and improved pricing strategies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Beer Business - The beer segment's revenue reached RMB 36.87 billion, with a stable volume of 11.15 million kiloliters sold. The sales of premium and above products grew by 18.9%, accounting for 22.4% of total sales [1][2]. - The gross margin for the beer business improved to 40.2%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with EBIT and net profit contributions of RMB 7.03 billion and RMB 5.25 billion, respectively [1][3]. White Liquor Business - The white liquor segment generated RMB 2.07 billion in revenue, with an EBIT of RMB 130 million. After adjusting for intangible asset amortization from the acquisition of Guizhou Jinsha, the EBIT would be RMB 797 million, reflecting a robust EBIT margin of 38.6% [2][3]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory by approximately RMB 800 million, achieving a significant improvement in pricing for key products [1][2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of RMB 60.7 billion, RMB 70.2 billion, and RMB 80.3 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with a target price based on a 20x PE ratio for FY24 earnings [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.67 HKD, representing a potential upside of 23.2% from the current price of 16.78 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with significant increases in copper and gold production, and rising prices for these metals, indicating substantial future growth potential [1]. - The company achieved total revenue of 293.4 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.12 billion RMB, up 5.38% year-on-year, marking historical highs for both metrics [1]. - The report highlights the expected production plans for 2024, projecting copper production at 1.11 million tons and gold production at 73.5 tons, among other minerals, indicating a sustained growth trajectory [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 293.4 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 9% compared to 2022 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 21.12 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.4% increase from the previous year [5]. - The average selling price for copper concentrate was 49,406 RMB per ton, up 3.95% year-on-year, while the average selling price for gold bars was 433 RMB per gram, an increase of 12.28% [1][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 15.81%, slightly improved from the previous year, while the mineral product gross margin was 49.09%, down approximately 5 percentage points [1]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued price increases for copper and gold due to tightening supply and recovering demand, which will support the company's profitability [1]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 328.41 billion RMB, with net profit expected to reach 27.75 billion RMB, indicating a growth rate of 31.4% [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 30.9, indicating a potential upside of 51.8% from the current price of HKD 20.35 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 596.57 billion for 2023, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth. The net profit increased by 4.6% to RMB 15.01 billion, with shareholder equity rising by 6.2% to RMB 9.05 billion [2][3]. - The overall gross margin has declined by 0.5 percentage points to 8.1%, while the company has effectively controlled expenses, leading to a decrease in distribution and administrative expense ratios [2][3]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated RMB 441.05 billion in revenue, up 8.5%, while the medical device segment grew by 7.8% to RMB 130.21 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from RMB 639.73 billion in 2024E to RMB 724.44 billion in 2026E, with annual growth rates ranging from 6.3% to 8.0% [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 9.50 billion in 2024E to RMB 10.79 billion in 2026E, with a consistent growth trajectory [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 3.05 in 2024E to RMB 3.46 in 2026E, reflecting a positive outlook for shareholder returns [5]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment remains the largest contributor, accounting for 71.4% of total revenue, while the medical device and retail segments contribute 21.1% and 5.8%, respectively [2][3]. - The medical device segment is expected to gain traction with new partnerships and product launches, including a joint venture with GE Healthcare [3]. - The retail pharmacy segment has shown improvement, with a 0.73 percentage point increase in operating profit margin to 3.21% and an increase in the number of retail outlets [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 12, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the previous closing price [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 6.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 1.40 billion, up 123% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the civil aviation industry in China, with significant growth in its core aviation information services segment [2][3]. - The report highlights the need for improved dividend payouts, as the company proposed a final cash dividend of HKD 0.16 per share for 2023, resulting in a payout ratio of 33%, up from 25% in the previous year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 6.98 billion, a 34% increase from 2022, and net profit of RMB 1.40 billion, reflecting a 123% growth [2][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was RMB 0.48, with a proposed dividend of HKD 0.16 per share [2][3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 1.37 billion, with cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 7.28 billion, indicating a healthy financial position [2][3]. Business Segments - The aviation information services segment generated RMB 3.85 billion in revenue, a 149% increase year-on-year, with a total processing volume of 620 million passengers, up 148.7% from 2022 [2][3]. - Revenue from settlement and clearing services reached RMB 450 million, a 52.1% increase, while system integration services revenue decreased by 41.4% to RMB 990 million due to fewer projects meeting completion criteria [2][3]. - Data network revenue declined by 5.2% to RMB 390 million, primarily due to reduced demand for distribution information technology services [2][3]. Cost Management - Total operating costs for 2023 were RMB 5.3 billion, a 12.1% increase, driven by rising labor costs and increased commission and promotion expenses [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to stricter cost control measures moving forward to enhance profitability [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the civil aviation industry in China will continue to recover, with the Civil Aviation Administration of China targeting a passenger transport volume of 690 million in 2024, aiming to restore the international passenger market to 80% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024 [2][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from this recovery due to its established presence in the aviation information technology service sector [2][3].

BKNG 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 瑞银最近也开始上调了标普 500 指数的目标价至 5400 点，年内还有低个位数的上 涨空间。华尔街资深分析师 Yardeni 的评论最近也开始转牛，认为标普 500 指数有 可能在两年内突破 6500 点，还有 30%的涨幅，但是也提醒避免股市过热导致的崩 溃，尤其是围绕 AI 的炒作。总之现在华尔街都开始撕报告了，改变年初对美股的 保守预测，都开始大幅多次上调。 但也有不好的消息，美国商业地产法拍数量有所增加，有可能影响中小银行的股价 从而间接导致市场情绪连带下跌。 季报大超预期，对整个科技股乃至整个指数都有很强有力的支撑作用，现在英伟达 的市值也接近 2 万亿美元。但市场有少数声音还是对英伟达表现出了一些忧虑，主 要是担心四大云客户在 2025 年之后，在下游应用创收没有达到预期的情况下，可 能会缩减支出，这样会影响英伟达的增速。德意志银行和瑞银都表达了对英伟达未 来收入增速放缓的担忧。 用户640989118于2024-02-28日下载，仅供本人内部使用，不可传播与转载 最近有个好消息，要取代 Walgreens 进入道琼斯指数成分股 ...

瑞声科技（2018） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 23年业绩略有下跌，声学有望升规升配，结构件业务增势强劲 陈晓霞  23 年业绩略有下跌：公司 2023 年全年实现收入 204.2 亿元（人民币，下 852-25321956 同），同比下降 1.0%。毛利率为 16.9%，同比下滑 1.4 个百分点。净利 润 7.4 亿，同比下降 9.9%，基本符合预期，主要是因为全球智能手机恢 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 复不及预期，消费需求疲软。展望 24 年，智能手机市场微复苏，公司 主要数据 IoT、AR/VR 及车载领域均获成果，尤其车载领域取得定点项目和收购 PSS公司，将助力公司全球汽车行业渗透。 行业 TMT  光学业务稳健增长，声学有望升规升配：光学业务实现收入 36.3 亿，同 股价 26.25港元 比增长12.7%，得益于塑胶镜头和光学模组业务产品升级进展顺利以及在 目标价 29.04港元 中高端机型份额的提升，公司全年塑胶镜头和 WLG 镜头出货量同比分别 （+10.6%） 提升 20%和 22%。毛利率为-13%，同比持平。公司去库存进展良好，预计 今年一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CRRC Times Electric (3898) with a target price of HKD 38.1, indicating a potential upside of 53.6% from the current price [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in rail transit and rapid growth in new equipment, with a net profit growth of 21.5% in 2023, driven by a revenue increase of 20.9% to RMB 21.8 billion [2]. - The rail transit business is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in national railway passenger volume, which rose by 128.8% year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2]. - The emerging equipment business is experiencing high growth rates, particularly in power semiconductor devices and new energy vehicle components, with some segments growing over 69% [2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 21.8 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.19 [2][7]. - The revenue breakdown shows rail transit business revenue at RMB 12.9 billion (up 2%) and emerging equipment business revenue at RMB 8.7 billion (up 69.6%) [2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 projects revenues of RMB 24.5 billion, RMB 27.8 billion, and RMB 30.6 billion, with respective growth rates of 12.4%, 13.6%, and 10.0% [2][7]. Business Segments - The rail transit business is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for locomotive and train replacements, with a total of 22,400 locomotives and 4,427 standard train sets in operation by the end of 2023 [2]. - The emerging equipment segment focuses on two main areas: transportation and energy, with significant investments in research and development, amounting to RMB 2.02 billion in 2023, representing 9.3% of total revenue [2]. - The company has secured new orders for photovoltaic inverters totaling 18.6 GW, ranking among the top three in the industry [2].