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煤电盈利持续修复,新能源装机加速
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-19 05:32
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a continuous recovery in coal power profitability while accelerating the installation of renewable energy [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 44.262 billion RMB in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.660 billion RMB, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - The coal power segment has significantly improved profitability, with a net profit of 928 million RMB, while hydropower faced a loss of 530 million RMB due to reduced water inflow [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.132 RMB per share, maintaining a high payout ratio [1]. - The company’s renewable energy capacity reached 13 GW in 2023, with a significant increase in wind and solar power sales [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for new installations decreased by 1.5% for wind and 6.3% for solar [1]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 4.64 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 44% from the current price [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 44.262 billion RMB in 2023 to 49.893 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 2.660 billion RMB in 2023 to 4.523 billion RMB in 2024, representing a growth of 70.0% [2]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 41.5% in 2023 to 47.7% in 2024 [2]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 305.807 billion RMB in 2023 to 329.186 billion RMB in 2024 [2]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain stable around 68.9% in 2023 and 70.7% in 2024 [2].
宏观经济评论
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-18 06:30
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业绩增长再超预期,24年目标稳步前行
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
业绩增长再超预期,24 年目标稳步前行 i 茅台数字平台表现亮眼,直营占比持续提升:分渠道看,23FY 公司批发代理/ 直销分别收入 800/672 亿元,同比+7.5%/+36.2%,直销占比 45.7%,同比 +5.8pct,其中 i 茅台实现收入 224 亿元,同比+88.3%。公司通过 i 茅台实现营 销数字化改革成效显著,此外,预计期内公司企业团购渠道及商超直营渠道等亦 获得较为亮眼发展,助力公司维持高直销比重。单季度看,23Q4 批发代理/直销 收入分别为 233/210 亿元,同比+20.7%/+20.2%,直销占比为 47.4%,同比/环比 分别-0.1/+3.3pct。其中 Q4 单季 i 茅台单实现收入 75 亿元,同比大幅+119.3%。 盈利摘要 股价表现 买入 2024 年 4 月 11 日 贵州茅台(600519) 更新报告 量价齐升增长显著,茅台 1935 完成百亿冲刺:23FY 茅台酒/系列酒收入分别为 1,266/206 亿元,同比+17.4%/+29.4%,其中 23Q4 分别为 393/50 亿元,同比 +17.6%/+48.2%。分量价看,茅台酒/系列酒全年分别实现销量 ...
业绩由盈转亏,铜金价格持续走高,甲玛矿区全面复产在即
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
中国黄金国际(2099) 更新报告 买入 2024年4月12日 业绩由盈转亏,铜金价格持续走高,甲玛矿区全面复产在即 业绩由盈转亏:2023 年全年,公司实现总收入 4.59 亿美元,同 许尚青 比减少 58%;净亏损为 2300 万美元,同比由盈转亏。公司收入和 +852-25321539 利润的下滑主要由于甲玛矿山果朗沟尾矿库尾砂外溢,甲玛矿山已 tim.xu@firstshanghai.com.hk 于2023年3月27日起暂停生产影响了整体的产量和业绩。公司综 陈晓霞 合矿山经营利润率为 17.49%,与去年同期相比下滑 18.31 个百分 (852)25321956 点。公司 2023 年全年矿产铜产量为 2 万吨,同比下滑 76%,全年 矿产铜销售均价为 6989 美元/吨,同比下滑 4.23%;公司 2023 年 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 全年矿产金产量为 14.79 万盎司,同比下滑 38%,矿产金平均价格 主要资料 为1962美元/盎司,同比提升8.64%。 铜金价格持续走高:随着美联储降息预期的发酵,有色金属价格 行业 原材料 有了大幅度的提升。截至目 ...
宏观经济评论:美股宏观策略周报
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
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一体化运营彰显盈利稳定性,煤价波动中的定海神针
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 37.49, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current price of HKD 31.85 [2][4]. Core Views - The company's integrated operations demonstrate stable profitability, acting as a stabilizing force amid coal price fluctuations. The high proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales helps smooth out price volatility, contributing to stable profit levels [1][2]. - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 69.5% [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenues of CNY 343.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 64.6 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend is CNY 2.26 per share, totaling CNY 44.9 billion [1][5]. - The coal production reached 321 million tons, up 3.5% year-on-year, while coal sales volume increased by 7.7% to 450 million tons. The revenue from coal business was CNY 273.3 billion, a decline of 1.5% [1][5]. Operational Insights - The company’s coal production cost per ton decreased by 2.3% to CNY 162 due to significant reductions in labor costs in the fourth quarter [1]. - The proportion of long-term contracts in coal sales increased by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, with the average price of long-term contracts only declining by 2.9%, which is less volatile compared to spot market prices [1][2]. Power Generation - The company’s total installed power generation capacity reached 45 GW, with 43 GW from coal-fired power. The power generation volume increased by 11% year-on-year, benefiting from new installations and a 5% reduction in unit electricity costs due to falling coal prices [1]. - The integrated coal and power operations significantly alleviate profitability pressures during periods of coal price volatility, with approximately 7 GW of coal power capacity still under construction [1][2]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to CNY 63.3 billion, CNY 63.5 billion, and CNY 63.7 billion respectively, reflecting stable growth expectations [2][5].
集采影响充分消化,明星产品保持潜力,创新转型将步入密集收获期
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 8.61, representing a potential upside of 38.4% from the current price of HKD 6.22 [2]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slowdown in sales growth in 2023, with revenue reaching CNY 31.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. The gross profit was CNY 22.18 billion, with a gross margin of 70.5%, down 1.4 percentage points [1][4]. - The company is focusing on innovation and transformation, with R&D expenses increasing by 21.2% to CNY 4.83 billion, accounting for 18.8% of the revenue from the pharmaceutical segment. Over the next five years, more than 50 new products or indications are expected to be approved [2][5]. - The company is expanding its product portfolio, particularly in the neurology sector, where revenue grew by 12.1% to CNY 9.09 billion, now accounting for 35.4% of the pharmaceutical revenue [1][2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the pharmaceutical segment generated revenue of CNY 25.64 billion, up 4.6%, while the vitamin C raw materials segment saw a significant decline in revenue to CNY 1.93 billion, down 23.7% [1]. - The company reported a net profit of CNY 5.87 billion, a decrease of 3.6%, while the adjusted net profit increased by 2.8% to CNY 6.28 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20.0% [1][4]. - The company’s market capitalization is HKD 732 billion, with a total issued share capital of 11.903 billion shares [2].
周报
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨, Teslascope 分享称,FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送, 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大,本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放,此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格,价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...
火电盈利持续改善,新能源装机加速兑现
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 24, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current price of HKD 18.62 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with revenue of HKD 1,033 million, remaining stable year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 110 million, representing a 56.2% increase. The renewable energy segment contributed HKD 97 million in profit, up 12.5%, while the thermal power segment turned a profit of HKD 36 million, recovering from a loss of HKD 619 million [2][3]. - The report highlights significant improvements in thermal power profitability due to increased coal imports and a substantial drop in coal prices, leading to a 12.6% decrease in fuel costs year-on-year. The introduction of capacity pricing policies in 2024 is expected to further stabilize thermal power profitability [2][3]. - The renewable energy segment is projected to be the main profit contributor, with 5.3 GW of new renewable energy capacity added in 2023 and a target of 10 GW for 2024. The report notes a 12.4% increase in wind power generation and a 111.8% increase in solar power generation, despite a slight decrease in solar utilization hours [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 1,033 million, with a net profit of HKD 110 million, marking a 56.2% increase from the previous year. The renewable energy segment's profit was HKD 97 million, while thermal power generated a profit of HKD 36 million [2][4]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 144 million, HKD 162 million, and HKD 182 million, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 31%, 13%, and 13% [3][4]. Operational Highlights - The company added 5.3 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2023 and has a construction pipeline of 7.3 GW for wind and 6 GW for solar. The capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at HKD 59.9 billion, primarily for renewable energy projects [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong governance and operational efficiency, which have contributed to its improved financial performance and market position [3][4].
23年公司经调整股东应占溢利同比下降4.6%
First Shanghai Securities· 2024-04-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.5, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 14.34 [3][4]. Core Insights - The company's adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year in 2023, with total revenue increasing by 11.6% to RMB 17.034 billion. Non-COVID revenue rose by 37.7% to RMB 16.51 billion, while COVID-related revenue decreased by 83.9% to RMB 0.53 billion [2][3]. - The gross profit margin declined by 3.9 percentage points to 40.1% due to the ramp-up of new overseas production facilities. Other income fell significantly from RMB 7.7 billion in 2022 to RMB 0.4 billion in 2023 due to reduced foreign exchange gains and losses in fair value of equity investments [2][3]. - The company reported a total of 698 projects in 2023, an increase of 132 projects, with a notable rise in monoclonal antibody projects and ADC projects [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 17,034 million, with a growth rate of 11.6%. The adjusted net profit was RMB 34.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23.1% [2][4]. - The company’s net cash position at the end of 2023 was RMB 9.1 billion, with free cash flow reported at RMB 0.6 billion [2][3]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 17,895 million, with expected growth rates of 5.1% [4]. Capacity and Production - The company's production capacity reached 276,000 liters in 2023, with expectations to increase to 610,000 liters. Approximately 40% of the capacity is located overseas to mitigate geopolitical risks [3][4]. - The Irish facility is expected to achieve significant commercial production and break-even by 2024, with full capacity anticipated by 2025 [3][4]. Market Position and Risks - The company has a total order volume of USD 20.6 billion, with a slight decrease in unfulfilled service orders by 1% year-on-year [2][3]. - Concerns regarding the company's future CMO business due to potential policy uncertainties in the U.S. market are noted, particularly with the Senate's proposed Biosecurity Act [3][4].