晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月16日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241016 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人： 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.特宝生物（688278）：乙肝临床治愈市场空间广阔，派格宾持续放量可期 ➢ 2.政策预期向好，关注内需改善——食品饮料行业周报（2024/10/7-2024/10/13） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.《国家空间科学中长期发展规划（2024—2050年）》正式发布 ➢ 2.三部门：12月1日起全面实施水资源费改税试点 水资源税收入全部归属地方 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 5. A 股市场评述 正文目录 1. 重点推荐 1.1. 特宝生物 ( 688278 ): 乙肝临床治愈市场空间广阔，派格宾持续放量可期.. 3 2.1. 政策预期向好，关注内需改善——食品饮料 ...

Key Recommendations - Limited incremental information from September financial data, with government bond financing remaining the main support. Key changes may be reflected in the deposit side, influenced by a strong stock market and fiscal efforts, leading to a recovery in M2 growth compared to previous values. However, the demand for real economy financing remains relatively weak, with a slight positive note on short-term loans for residents showing improvement compared to August. Future policies may alleviate local financial constraints and restore market confidence, potentially leading to a recovery in real financing demand [6][7]. - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase of CNY 910 billion in September, a year-on-year increase of CNY 1.58 billion, attributed to the strong performance of the equity market. This was partly due to a decrease in resident deposits (down CNY 331.6 billion year-on-year) and also influenced by the redemption of wealth management products, which contributed to the recovery of M2 growth [6]. - Government bond financing increased by CNY 1.5353 trillion in September, a year-on-year increase of CNY 543.3 billion, indicating continued support for social financing [7]. Economic Data Observations - September export growth declined due to elevated base effects and short-term factors such as weather. Exports to the US, EU, and Japan all saw varying degrees of decline, although sectors like shipbuilding, automotive, and steel exports remained relatively strong. The export scale in September was over USD 300 billion, maintaining a high level for five consecutive months [9][10]. - Import growth also saw a slight decline, with September imports amounting to USD 222 billion, marking the highest level since January. The year-on-year decline improved from -7.2% to -6.3%, but the data did not yet reflect significant improvements in domestic demand [10]. Financial News - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced four key measures to enhance the vitality of business entities, including guiding platform enterprises to support merchants, promoting quality reputation as a basis for financing, providing targeted assistance to individual businesses, and accelerating the revision of standards for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement [12][13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the development of new fields such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G technology, aiming to foster new economic growth engines [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - The company shows strong revenue growth and high confidence in its development, highlighted by an ambitious equity incentive plan [9]. - The antiviral treatment population is expanding, and the core product, Pegbivac, is expected to continue its sales growth [9]. - The innovative pipeline is gradually entering a harvest period, with several products expected to launch soon [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, is a leader in the development of long-acting recombinant protein drugs, focusing on viral hepatitis, malignant tumors, and immunotherapy [16]. - It has launched five products, all included in the national medical insurance, with Pegbivac showing exceptional performance in the clinical cure of hepatitis B [17]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 448 million to 2.1 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.19%, and net profit increased from 16 million to 555 million yuan, with a CAGR of 103.28% [23]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.68%, and a net profit of 304 million yuan, up 50.53% year-on-year [23]. Market Potential - The chronic hepatitis B patient population in China is substantial, with 79.74 million HBV infected individuals, including 20 to 30 million chronic hepatitis B patients [9][39]. - Pegbivac is the only long-acting interferon product on the market in China, with significant potential for sales growth as the treatment population expands [12]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with several products expected to launch soon, including long-acting G-CSF and long-acting growth hormone, which are anticipated to capture significant market share [10][30]. - The company is actively exploring new treatment options for hepatitis B, including collaborations for new drug development [27]. Equity Incentive Plan - In August 2024, the company announced an equity incentive plan with ambitious performance targets for net profit growth over the next three years, reflecting strong confidence in its long-term development [31].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the machinery equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing growth driven by improved demand in downstream markets, particularly in the tool sector, with companies like Juxing Technology and Jack Co. showing significant revenue increases [6][19]. - The report highlights the importance of companies' internal growth capabilities alongside macroeconomic factors, emphasizing that firms with strong fundamentals can outperform during industry fluctuations [6][19]. - The trend towards digitalization and smart manufacturing in the textile and apparel sector is driving demand for updated machinery and production lines [19][20]. Summary by Sections Juxing Technology - Juxing Technology is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2024, with Q1 and Q2 revenues increasing by 29.4% and 26.2% year-on-year, respectively [12]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of over 30% in Q3 2024, driven by improved consumer demand in North America [12][15]. - The proportion of self-owned brands has increased from 30.7% in 2020 to 44.1% in H1 2024, contributing to a 15.1% year-on-year growth in self-owned brand revenue [15][16]. Jack Co. - Jack Co. forecasts a net profit growth of 45.5% to 52.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, supported by a recovery in textile machinery demand [19][21]. - The company has successfully implemented a "fast response" strategy, leading to strong sales of key products like the "Quick Response King" sewing machine [19][21]. LiuGong - LiuGong expects a net profit growth of 50% to 70% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, benefiting from internal reforms and improved operational efficiency [22][23]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas sales, with a reported 18.8% year-on-year growth in foreign revenue for H1 2024 [23]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a shift in the textile and apparel industry towards smaller batch production and rapid response to market changes, necessitating updates in machinery and production processes [19][20]. - The introduction of new technologies, such as the industrial humanoid robot Walker S1, is expected to enhance operational efficiency in manufacturing [25].

Export Data - In September 2024, exports decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in the previous month[3] - The trade surplus was $81.711 billion, a narrowing from previous values[3] - Exports to the US, EU, and Japan saw declines of 2.8%, 12.1%, and 7.6% respectively, with Japan's exports turning negative[4] Import Data - Imports in September 2024 amounted to $222 billion, the highest level in a month but only slightly above the average of $214.3 billion for the year[4] - The year-on-year change in imports improved from -7.2% to -6.3%[4] - The domestic manufacturing PMI new orders index rose to 49.9, indicating potential improvement in domestic demand[4] Market Trends - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8, indicating a contraction in external demand[3] - The export volume for ships and steel remained strong, while automotive exports showed a significant decline in growth rate[4] - The overall external demand is weakening, influenced by both base effects and short-term weather factors[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [7][36]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector demonstrated strong resilience despite a 7.47% decline last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report highlights the importance of policy support in boosting consumer confidence and improving domestic demand [7]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor segment, as well as premium beer brands and resilient companies in the snack and dairy sectors [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 7.47%, with only soft drinks showing a slight increase of 0.17%. The top five gainers included Western Pastoral, Shede Liquor, Dongpeng Beverage, Tianwei Food, and Lianhua Health, with respective increases of 10.28%, 9.42%, 6.83%, 3.36%, and 2.31%. Conversely, the largest declines were seen in *ST Huangtai, Qinghai Spring, Yili, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Xiangpiaopiao, with decreases of 23.02%, 14.47%, 13.88%, 13.75%, and 13.58% [7][12]. 2. Liquor Segment - The report notes that the sales during the dual festivals met expectations, with fluctuations in prices post-festival. The high-end liquor segment continues to face pressure, while the mid-range products (priced between 100-300 yuan) are performing relatively better. The report emphasizes the need for liquor companies to focus on brand building, quality improvement, and strategic reforms [7][8]. 3. Beer Segment - The beer sector is expected to see improved sales in Q3 due to seasonal demand and lower base effects. The report indicates that raw material costs, particularly for barley, have decreased, enhancing profitability for beer companies. The long-term trend towards premiumization in the beer market remains intact, with a recommendation to focus on key players like Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Snack and Dairy Segments - In the snack sector, some companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the report anticipates sustained growth for leading firms. The dairy segment is experiencing a shift towards health-oriented products, with an increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products. Companies that are upgrading their product structures and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels are recommended for investment [8][22]. 5. Raw Material Prices - The report provides insights into the prices of key raw materials, noting that milk prices are at 12.16 yuan/liter, with a slight weekly increase, while pork prices are at 29.70 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.53% [22][23]. 6. Industry Dynamics - The report mentions the ongoing promotion of Chinese liquor culture internationally, highlighting the importance of global outreach for the industry [32]. Additionally, it notes a slight increase in the national liquor price index in September, indicating a potential recovery in the market [33].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2024, M2 increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 6.3% in the previous month[2] - M1 decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 7.3%[2] - New RMB loans totaled 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan[2] - New social financing (社融) reached 3.76 trillion yuan, down by 372.2 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.0%, compared to 8.1% previously[2] Group 2: Key Insights and Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly by 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.58 trillion yuan, linked to a strong equity market[3] - Corporate deposits rose sharply by 569 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating fiscal efforts are materializing[3] - Corporate bond financing saw a net decrease of 191.1 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing debt resolution efforts[3] - New government bond financing amounted to 1.5353 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 543.3 billion yuan[3] - The M2-M1 gap widened, indicating a need for improved economic vitality[3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal industry Core Insights - LME copper prices are expected to fluctuate between $9,000 and $10,000 per ton in 2024, supported by ongoing demand from major consumers like China and potential easing of U.S. monetary policy [3] - Global copper supply is projected to improve in 2024, with increased production from Peru and recovery in Congo and Chile, leading to a preliminary oversupply in the market [3] - The report highlights a significant decline in global copper inventories, which fell by 31.6% year-on-year in 2023, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Section Summaries Metal Price Review and Outlook - The report discusses the historical price trends of copper, aluminum, and lead, noting fluctuations due to global events and economic cycles [4][5] - It anticipates a recovery in metal prices post-2024 as global economic activity improves and supply constraints ease [4] Commodity Supply, Demand, and Production - In 2023, China's copper imports decreased by 2% compared to 2022, but a slight recovery is expected in the first half of 2024 [3] - The report indicates that global copper production is expected to exceed consumption for the first time in years, with 2023 production at approximately 27.01 million tons and consumption at about 26.97 million tons [22] Metal Industry Chain - The report outlines the dynamics of the copper supply chain, including mining, refining, and downstream demand, emphasizing the importance of electric equipment and construction sectors in China [92][102] Conclusion and Investment Suggestions - The report suggests that investors should monitor the recovery of copper production and the potential for price increases as global economic conditions improve [4][3] - It also highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic indicators, such as U.S. interest rates and inflation, in influencing metal prices [5][9]

行 业 研 究 电 子 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年10月14日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 1. 8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新品— —电子行业周报（20240923- 20240929） 2. 半导体高能氢离子注入技术突 破，存储模组价格承压——电子行 业周报（20240916-20240922） 3. 国产DUV光刻机重大突破，消费 电子新品密集发布有望拉动行业景 气度——电子行业周报 （20240909-20240915） 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 （20240923-20240929） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] AMD推出新一代GPU MI325X，预计第 四季度存储合约价涨幅收敛 ...

Key Recommendations - The report highlights that a turning point has been reached, favoring equities due to a series of policy measures that significantly boost market confidence. The recent announcements from the State Council and the Politburo indicate a strong commitment to counter-cyclical adjustments, suggesting sustained policy support in the future [6][7]. - Global liquidity has reached a turning point, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle. This is expected to alleviate exchange rate constraints and support economic recovery [7]. - The report anticipates a potential rebound in profit growth in the fourth quarter, driven by improved fiscal policies and a recovery in demand, despite a weak profit growth outlook for the third quarter [7]. Industry Insights Refrigerant Industry - The report notes an upward trend in refrigerant prices, with R32, R125, and R134a prices increasing by 7.04%, 10.17%, and 1.52% respectively as of September 30, 2024. The price of R22 remained stable, while its price has increased by 53.85% since the beginning of 2024 [9][10]. - The 2025 refrigerant quota draft indicates an increase in R32 supply, which is expected to maintain upward price momentum in the long term. The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas is likely to drive prices higher [10]. - The demand for refrigerants is supported by rising household air conditioning production, with production volumes expected to grow significantly in the last quarter of 2024 [10]. Oil and Gas Industry - The report emphasizes that oil and gas companies' market values are significantly influenced by their resource reserves and production levels. The correlation between oil reserves and market capitalization is highlighted as a critical factor [11][12]. - Global oil and gas upstream merger and acquisition activity has surged, with 201 transactions in 2023 valued at $233.5 billion, marking a historical high. This trend is expected to continue into 2024 [12][13]. - Short-term oil prices are projected to remain supported at $65 per barrel, with expectations of Brent crude oil prices fluctuating between $60 and $90 per barrel throughout the year [12][13]. Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with comprehensive supply chains, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd., as well as raw material suppliers like Jinshi Resources [10]. - For the oil and gas sector, it suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises with strong resource reserves and refining capacities, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are positioned competitively on an international scale [13].