行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月05日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -49% -39% -29% -19% -9% 2% 12% 23-08 23-11 24-02 24-05 申万行业指数:美容护理(0777) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.上美股份发布业绩预告，LVMH上 半年香水化妆品同比增长6%——美 容护理行业周报 (2024/7/22- 2024/7/26) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 欧莱雅发布] 半年报，江苏吴中、华熙生 物新进展 ——美容护理行业周报(2024/7/29-2024/8/2) [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现：（1）美容护理板块：本周沪深300指数下跌0.73%，申万美容护理指数上涨 1.94%，行业跑赢大盘2.67pcts，涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排第10位。（2）个股方面： 本周板块内涨幅前五的个股分别为倍加 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月05日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.兆易创新（603986.SH）： 利基存储价格有望继续回暖， 增资长鑫产能或有保障——公 司简评报告 1. Q2中国智能手机出货量同比增长 8.9%，3000亿特别国债助力消费品 以旧换新——电子行业周报 （20240722-20240728） 2. 国产汽车芯片迎催化良机， 2024Q2全球智能手机出货同比增长 6.5%——电子行业周报 （20240715-20240721） 3. IoT出海高景气度持续，台积电 Q2业绩超预期市值首破万亿美元— —电子行业周报（20240708- 20240714） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 周期回暖、AI驱动海外各科技大厂2024 第二季度业绩复苏 ——电子行业周报2024/7/29-2024/8/4 [table_main] 投 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月04日 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年8月5日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240805 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.供需数据显示产业仍处于底部弱平衡，AI继续成为市场关注焦点——半导体行业7月份 月报 ➢ 2.坚定实现年度目标，货币外部约束减轻——宏观周观点（20240729-20240802） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国务院印发《关于促进服务消费高质量发展的意见》 ➢ 2.国务院国资委党委：把进一步深化改革摆在更加突出位置 ➢ 3.美国7月非农就业数据弱于预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月03日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月02日 行 业 月 报 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 供需数据]显示产业仍处于底部弱平衡， AI继续成为市场关注焦点 ——半导体行业月报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -39% -31% -23% -15% -7% 1% 10% 23-08 23-11 24-02 24-05 申万行业指数:电子(0727) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.2024Q2公募持仓半导体比例高达 8.39%，TOP20持仓个股占据90%份 额——电子行业简评 2.Q2中国智能手机出货量同比增长 8.9%，3000亿特别国债助力消费品 以旧换新 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 2024/7/22-2024/7/28 3. 国 产 汽 车 芯 片 迎 催 化 良 机 ， 2024Q2全球智能手机出货同比增长 6.5%——电子行业周报（20240715- 20240721） ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to approximately 0.25% and plans to gradually reduce its monthly government bond purchases from 6 trillion yen to about 3 trillion yen by early 2026, exceeding market expectations [6][7]. - The core inflation rate in Japan was 2.6% year-on-year in June 2024, above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with optimistic projections for core inflation to remain around 2.5% in FY2024 [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates one to two more times in the second half of 2024, but may not sustain this trend into 2025 due to weak economic growth and potential inflation declines [6][7]. Group 2: Company Analysis - CATL (宁德时代) - In H1 2024, CATL reported revenue of 166.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37% [9][10]. - The company's energy storage revenue grew by 3% year-on-year in H1 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 28.87% [9][10]. - CATL's battery shipments exceeded 205 GWh in H1 2024, maintaining a global market share of approximately 37.5% in the power battery segment, with expectations to ship over 480 GWh in 2024 [9][10]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5%, indicating a neutral to dovish stance in the July FOMC meeting, which may pave the way for a potential rate cut in September [11][12]. - The Fed's language regarding employment and inflation has softened, suggesting a balance of risks, but it has not ruled out the possibility of not cutting rates [11][12]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September may be overly optimistic, as the stock market has priced in these expectations without adequately considering the potential for economic downturns [11][12].

Key Recommendations - Manufacturing PMI slightly declined in July, indicating a need for stronger economic recovery efforts. The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and below the 10-year average of 50.4% [6][7] - Domestic tire companies are making progress in catching up with global leaders, with a focus on scale, profitability, brand influence, and globalization strategies. The top three global tire companies hold a combined market share of 39%, while China's leading companies have a market share of 1-2% [8][9] - CME predicts that excavator export growth is expected to turn positive, with domestic sales also showing improvement. July excavator sales are estimated at around 14,000 units, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 11% [10][11] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a slight downturn, with both production and new order indices declining. The production index fell to 50.1%, and the new order index dropped to 49.3% [7] - New export orders showed a slight recovery, indicating stabilization in external demand, while domestic demand remains a significant constraint [7][8] - The cost pressures on enterprises have eased due to a decline in raw material prices, with the raw material price index dropping to 49.9% [7] Tire Industry Insights - Domestic tire companies are in a rapid expansion phase, with significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) for companies like Guizhou Tire and Sailun Tire, indicating high-quality capital investment returns [8][9] - The revenue growth rate for China's leading tire companies in 2023 is projected between 12% and 23%, significantly outperforming overseas competitors [8] - The market share of domestic top three tire companies has increased from 1.14% in 1998 to 5.32% in 2022, showcasing substantial progress [9] Excavator Market Outlook - The domestic excavator market is expected to improve due to policy effects and increased demand from infrastructure investments. The average inventory of domestic dealers has decreased, indicating a positive market sentiment [10][11] - The production of metal cutting machine tools in China has shown positive growth, with a cumulative production of 333,000 units in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase [10][11] Policy and Economic Context - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [13] - The recent meeting led by Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence through tangible policy actions [13]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月01日 [如何看待美联储 Table_NewTitle] 9月降息概率？ ——海外观察：2024年7月美国FOMC会议 [table_main] 投资要点 Ø 事件：美联储维持联邦基金利率的目标区间在 5.25% 至 5.5% 不变，符合预期。 Ø 核心观点：7月FOMC会议整体态度中性偏鸽，措辞较上次会议更温和，暗示就业和通胀 的双重风险趋于平衡，为9月降息做了铺垫，但也没有排除不降息的可能性，为未来变化 留下了充足空间。市场解读本次会议基调偏鸽，美元资产继续交易降息预期，可能过于 乐观。当前美股市场对于美联储降息的计价已经较为充分，而对降息背后经济下行的计 价有所不足。一旦经济增速不及预期，美联储9月降息靴子落地，美股可能反而会下跌， 开始计价衰退。如果未来经济偏强，降息预期回落，可能反而更有利于美股大盘走势。 Ø 7月FOMC会议释放的信号整体中性偏鸽。美联储对于就业和通胀情况描述采用的措辞较 上次会议都变得更加温和，认为双重风险更趋平衡。会议声明中对于就业增长的描述从上 次会议的"强劲"变为"温和"，认为失业率虽然有所上升但仍处于低 ...

公 司 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月01日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张帆远 S0630524070002 zfy@longone.com.cn 电 力 设 备 与 新 能 源 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2024/08/01 | | 收盘价 | 180.30 | | 总股本(万股) | 439,881 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 389,485/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.26% | | 市净率(倍) | 4.04 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 11.39 | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 245.32/137.04 | [Table_QuotePic] -49% -40% -31% -22% -13% -4% 5% 1 ...