| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 相关活动应当审慎选择具有相当资质的证券经营机构，注意防范非法证券活动。 上海 东海证券研究所 | | | 地址：上海市浦东新区东方路 1928 号 东海证券大厦 | | | 网址： Http://www.longone.com.cn | | | 座机：（ 8621）20333275 | | | 手机： 18221959689 | | | 传真：（ 8621）50585608 | | | 邮编： 200125 | | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/6 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [证Ta券b分le析_A师uthors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn 事件：3月27日，公司发布2023年年度报告，公司2023年全年营业总收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company demonstrated impressive performance in 2023, with significant growth in core products such as quail eggs and spicy konjac, slightly exceeding expectations. The multi-category expansion and continuous channel development are expected to release further performance potential, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [5][8]. - The company’s 2023 total revenue reached 4.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.22%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 506 million yuan, up 67.76% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 is projected to achieve a net profit of 150-170 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.48%-52.41% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a gross margin of 33.54% (down 1.18 percentage points year-on-year) and a net profit margin of 12.47% (up 2.04 percentage points year-on-year). The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a gross margin of 31.06% and a net profit margin of 9.89% [4][5]. - The company’s operating expenses were effectively controlled, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 12.53% (down 3.27 percentage points), 4.44% (down 0.08 percentage points), 1.94% (down 0.63 percentage points), and 0.40% (up 0.09 percentage points) respectively [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from direct supermarkets, distribution channels, and e-commerce channels in 2023 was 334 million yuan, 2.952 billion yuan, and 828 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -10.03%, +40.35%, and +98.04% respectively. The proportions were 8.13%, 71.74%, and 20.13% [4][5]. - The company’s core products, including spicy konjac and quail eggs, showed remarkable growth, with revenue from spicy snacks, baked snacks, deep-sea snacks, potato snacks, egg snacks, dried fruits and nuts, and konjac pudding reaching 1.482 billion yuan, 627 million yuan, 619 million yuan, 360 million yuan, 319 million yuan, 267 million yuan, and 217 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.71%, 12.75%, 10.65%, 29.98%, 594.52%, 37.19%, and 125.67% [9][11]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 706 million yuan, 920 million yuan, and 1.125 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.53%, 30.29%, and 22.30% respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 3.60 yuan, 4.69 yuan, and 5.74 yuan, with P/E ratios of 21.02, 16.13, and 13.19 respectively [5][11].

Group 1: Semiconductor and AI Industry Insights - The rapid development of AI large models is driving significant growth in the semiconductor and optical module sectors, with AI server demand expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 29% over the next three years [10][14]. - The global AI server market is projected to expand from approximately 855,000 units in 2023 to 2,369,000 units by 2026, indicating a robust demand for AI computing chips and supporting optical modules [10][14]. - GPUs are the most common type of AI chips, accounting for about 89% of China's AI computing market, and they represent approximately 70-75% of the cost of AI servers [11][12]. Group 2: Optical Module Market Dynamics - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing need for high-speed interconnections in servers and data centers, with data communication optical modules projected to capture 60% of the market share by 2026 [13]. - China has a strong presence in the optical module market, with five of the top ten global optical module companies located in the region, and the domestic packaging capabilities are leading globally [13]. - The domestic production rate for high-end optical chips (25G and above) is currently low, presenting substantial opportunities for domestic companies to increase their market share through localization efforts [13]. Group 3: Deposit Growth and Structure Rebalancing - Recent months have seen a noticeable decline in deposit growth rates, with a significant shift in the structure of deposits, influenced by macroeconomic policies and the return of asset management products to banks [17][18]. - The growth of deposits is expected to slow down further due to high base effects and a rebalancing of credit structures, with a notable decrease in corporate demand for deposits [18][19]. - Positive macroeconomic policies are anticipated to enhance the deposit structure, with improvements in consumer credit and corporate deposits expected as a result of government initiatives [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the home appliance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the near term [6]. Core Insights - The overall production data for white goods is better than last year's performance, with a short-term optimistic outlook. As of the end of March, the production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines from April to June is expected to grow by 16.6% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The air conditioning segment shows the most significant growth, with domestic production increasing by 20.9%, 16.3%, and 13.5% respectively from April to June. Export production growth rates are 28.3%, 16.7%, and 3.1% [6]. - The refrigerator segment also shows a high short-term production growth rate, with domestic and export production increasing by 10.9% and 19.9% respectively in April [7]. - The washing machine segment has stable production growth rates, with domestic production increasing by 1.5%, 6.4%, and 5.7% from April to June [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and consumer experience in driving growth, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments [7]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning - Domestic production growth rates for air conditioners are strong, with significant sales increases observed in early 2023. The report notes that the demand for air conditioning is supported by favorable weather expectations and consumer interest in energy-efficient products [6]. - The report highlights the technological advancements in air conditioning, including smart features and improved energy efficiency, which enhance user experience [6]. Refrigerators - The refrigerator market is experiencing a trend towards embedded designs, with significant growth in the embedded refrigerator segment. Online and offline sales of embedded refrigerators have seen year-on-year increases of 11.9% and 17.6% respectively [7]. - Innovations in refrigerator features, such as specialized storage for different food types and smart functionalities, are noted as key drivers for consumer interest [7]. Washing Machines - The washing machine market shows steady growth, with a focus on product upgrades and new categories catering to specific fabric types. The report notes the gradual promotion of embedded designs in washing machines [7]. - The introduction of new washing modes for delicate fabrics and mini washing machines is highlighted as a growth area [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, which have established global operations and strong cash flows [7].

Revenue and Profitability - In January-February 2024, industrial enterprises' revenue increased by 4.5% year-on-year, 3.4 percentage points higher than the full year of 2023[2] - The profit margin for combined revenue in January-February was 4.7%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year[2] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 84.97 yuan, an increase of 0.11 yuan year-on-year, while expenses decreased to 8.62 yuan per 100 yuan of revenue[2] Market Trends - The industrial added value grew by 7.0% year-on-year in January-February, indicating strong industrial production performance at the start of the year[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 2.7% year-on-year in February, with a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to January, impacting profitability[2] Inventory and Supply Chain - By the end of February, the cumulative year-on-year growth of finished goods inventory was 2.4%, up from 2.1% previously, indicating a potential shift towards proactive restocking[19] - Actual inventory increased by 5.1% year-on-year, suggesting that revenue growth may lead to a gradual recovery in inventory levels[19] Sector Performance - The mining sector saw profits decline by 21.1% year-on-year, while manufacturing profits improved significantly from a decline of 2% to a growth of 17.4%[34] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector continued to see profit growth, rising from 54.7% to 63.1% year-on-year[34] Risks and Outlook - The report highlights that policy implementation has not met expectations, leading to a slower recovery in market demand and corporate revenue growth[14] - Future market volatility is anticipated, with projections indicating that the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index could fluctuate between -20% and 20% over the next six months[15]

晨 会 纪 要 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 联系人： 张晶磊 zjlei@longone.com.cn 财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 4. 市场数据 2/8 全球 AI 大模型高速发展，算力需求高增驱动 AI 服务器三年 CAGR 约为 29%的增长， 带动算力芯片与光模块产业链受益。2023 年以来，以 ChatGPT、Sora 为代表的多模态 AI 大模型横空出世，标志着人工智能技术已经进入一个新的纪元。未来，通用人工智能（AGI） 有望集多模态感知、大数据分析、机器学习、自动化决策于一体，重塑人类工作和生产生活 的方式，引领人类步入第四次工业革命。算力的高速增长需要更多的 AI 服务器支撑，2023 年全球 AI 服务器约 85.5 万台，到 2026 年预计将达到 236.9 万台，CAGR 为 29.02%，从 而驱动 AI 算力芯片与配套的光模块产业高增长。 光模块受益算力需求高增长，我国模块封装能力成熟，或将受益高速 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------| | | | | | | 2024 年 03 月 26 日 星期二 | | 【摘要】 | | | | | | | 【今日要闻】 | | | | | | | | 联合国副秘书长马丁·格里菲思因健康原因将在6月离任(财联社) | | | | | | 快讯(第一财经) | | | | | | | | 俄总统普京就莫斯科州音乐厅恐袭事件召开俄联邦安全会议(财联社) | | | | | | | 德国火车司机工会与铁路公司达成协议 未来不再举行罢工(第一财经) | | | | | | | 马斯克的社交媒体平台"X"在与监督机构的诉讼中败诉(第一财经) | | | | | | 美股收跌(第一财经) ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年03月25日 [table_invest] [电Tabl力e_N现ewT货itle] 市场不断完善，独立储能盈利 标配 行 空间拓宽 业 周 ——电池及储能行业周报（2024/03/18-2024/03/24） 报 [table_main] [证Ta券b分le析_A师u thors] 投资要点： 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 电 ➢ 市场表现：本周（3/18-3/24）申万电池板块整体上涨0.36%，跑赢沪深300指数1.06个百 联系人 力 张帆远 分点。主力净流入前五为科华数据、国电南瑞、容百科技、华宝新能、铜冠铜箔；净流出 设 zfy@longone.com.cn 前五为宁德时代、锦浪科技、格林美、天赐材料、德业股份。 备 联系人 ➢ 电池板块 与 赵敏敏 新 zmmin@longone.com.cn （1）动力电池需求恢复态势强，行业需求向好。乘联会：2024年3月狭义新能源乘用车零 能 售约75.0万辆，同/环比+37.1/+93.2%。节后终端车型价格持续下滑，新能源汽车渗透率 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年3月25日 [table_invest] [南Tabl山e_N智ewT尚itle]2023年盈利提升，新材料高壁 标配 行 垒、快成长 业 周 ——纺织服饰行业周报（2024/3/18-2024/3/24） 报 [table_main] [证Ta券b分le析_A师uthors] 投资要点： 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 纺 联系人  本周观点：南山智尚2023年盈利提升，新材料高壁垒、快成长。3月19日，公司公布2023 织 龚理 年度业绩，实现收入16.00亿元，归母净利润2.03亿元，同比分别-2.05%/+8.53%，其中 服 gongli@longone.com.cn 2023Q4实现收入4.77亿元，归母净利润0.83亿元，同比分别+6.28%/+2.56%。超高纤维 饰 类产品快速增长，实现收入0.90亿元，同比+363.22%。毛利率整体稳中有升，同比提高 [table_stockTrend] 1.12pct至34.65%，其中服装类同比提高3.71pct至35.79%，超高纤维类同比 ...

2024年03月25日 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|--------|-------------| | | | | | | | | | 数据日期 | | 2024/03/25 | | 收盘价 | | 17.30 | | 总股本 | ( 万股 | 42,808 | | 流通 A | 股 | 42,808/0 | | 资产负债率 | | 22.89% | | 市净率 | ( 倍 | 4.12 | | 净资产收益率 | | 20.42 | | 12 个月内最高 | | 30.57/14.00 | 相关研究 普门科技（688389）：产品结构持续优 化，盈利能力显著提升 ——公司简评报告 利润持续高增长。 2023年，公司实现营业收入11.46亿元（+16.55%）、归母净利润3.29亿 元（+30.66%）、扣非归母净利润3.13亿元（+34.39%）。其中Q4单季实现营业收入3.37亿 元（+8.71%）、归母净利润1.24亿元（+25.66%）、扣非归母净利润1.25亿元（+39.68%）。 公司业绩符合预期。 治疗与康复产品管线丰 ...