行 业 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------|--------|--------------|-----------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------| | 资产定价 | | | | 食品饮料行业：从利率角度观察食品饮料 | | 2024 年 \n看好 / 维持 \n食品饮料 行业报告 | | 分析师 | | | | 孟斯硕 电话：010-66554041 邮箱：mengssh@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480520070004 | | | 分析师 王洁婷 | 电话： | 021-25102900 | 邮箱： wangjt@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480520070003 | 投资摘要： 2021 年以来，主导食品饮料板块资产定价的要素更多的来自于需求侧的变化和预期，即在资产定价模 型中， ...

东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴银行】光大银行（601818.SH）：注重结构优化，资产质量平稳——2024 年半年报点评（20240905） 事件：8 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年中报，实现营收、拨备前利润、归母净 利润 698.1、506.2、244.9 亿元，分别同比-8.8%、-10.4%、+1.7%。年化加 权平均 ROE 为 9.51%，同比下降 0.63pct。 点评： 公司 1H24 盈利增速较 1Q24 提升 1.3pct 至 1.7%。拆分来看，上半年业绩正 向贡献主要来自拨备反补、规模增长和非息平稳；季度变化来看，对盈利正 向变化的是拨备反补力度加强、非息降幅收窄和息差负向影响减弱；负向变 化的是规模环比略收缩、成本支出稍提高。 Q2 规模微降，净息差低位趋稳。公司上半年规模仅微增 0.4%，Q1 增 Q2 降， 符合季节性规律，反映出当前有效信贷需求较为不足和公司坚持质效优先的 经营策略。资产端各类资产有不同程度下降，其中贷款环比略降 0.3%；负债 端存款较年初下降 3.8%。从日均余额情况看，1H24 较 23A 贷 ...

行 业 研 究 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 纺织服装行业：奢侈品牌上半年受 到亚洲区域拖累，其他区域具备韧 性 事件：近期国际奢侈品牌陆续发布 2024 年上半年业绩。我们统计了 12 家奢侈品 公司，大部分公司收入端有一定韧性，但 Q2 表现弱于 Q1。表现最好的三家公司 爱马仕、Prada、Brunello Cucinelli(BC)在二季度仍取得双位数增速；三大奢侈 品集团 LVMH、历峰集团、开云集团二季度收入增速分别为+1.00%、+1.00%、 -11.00%，表现一般；其他公司（Swatch、TAPESTRY、CAPRI、Moncler、Burberry、 菲拉格慕）收入端平均下滑 7%，整体表现一般。 重点公司业绩有所分化： LVMH：1H24 集团收入内生同比增长+2%至 417 亿欧元。历峰集团：1QFY25 （2024 年 4-6 月）集团收入固定汇率下同比增长 1%达 52.68 亿欧元。开云 集团：1H24 收入内生同比及财报口径均下滑 11%至 90.18 亿欧元。 爱马仕：1H24 公司收入固定汇率下同比增长 15%，财报披露口径下同比增长 1 ...

行 业 研 究 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 美护行业：国际美妆集团业绩表现 偏弱，优质国货品牌迎发展机遇 事件：多家国家美妆集团披露财报，欧莱雅、联合利华、资生堂等公司披露 2024 年 半 年 报 ， 雅 诗 兰 黛 、 宝 洁 等 公 司 披 露 2024 年 财 年 报 告 （2023.6.1-2024.6.30），LG 生活健康、爱茉莉太平洋等公布 24 年 Q2 业绩。 国际美妆集团业绩表现分化，部分公司业绩承压。国际美妆集团近一年业绩表 现整体较为一般，大多数公司业绩仅低个位数增长，增速普遍放缓，部分公司 业绩大幅下滑。分品类来看，大众化妆品占比较高或者兼有日化产业的公司业 绩表现相对较为坚挺，比如欧莱雅、宝洁、联合利华等；高端化妆品受冲击较 大，公司业绩承压，比如雅诗兰黛、资生堂、科蒂等。分地区来看，日韩公司 从销售规模和同比增速来看均处于相对较后位置，欧美公司整体体量更大、增 长韧性更强，但内部分化较大，部分公司业绩受损严重。 高功效品牌优势仍在，高端品牌受冲击较大。根据各大集团财报细分数据来看， 不同业务部门及不同品牌的 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴化工】安道麦 A（000553.SZ）：市场低迷业绩短期承压，差异化战略 驱动长期发展（20240905） 安道麦发布 2024 年中报：公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 149.10 亿元， YoY-13.58%，归母净利润-8.95 亿元。 农药行业景气低迷，公司业绩仍然承压。2024 年上半年，大宗植保产品市场 竞争激烈，同时渠道采购倾向即时模式，导致公司整体销售下滑，其中公司 平均销售价格同比下滑 10%、销量同比减少 4%。分地区来看，2024 年上半年 公司欧洲、非洲与中东地区销售额同比下滑 11.1%至 6.79 亿美元，北美地区 地区销售额同比下滑 5.0%至 4.14 亿美元，拉美地区销售额同比下滑 28.9% 至 4.00 亿美元，亚太地区销售额同比下滑 17.0%至 6.05 亿美元。 面对充满挑战的市场环境，公司启动实施"奋进计划"，旨在通过提高业务质 量来实现逆势突围。公司计划聚焦价值创新细分领域，即通过针对现有有效 成分应用新型专有制剂技术实现产品创新，同时优化公司的产品组合，并改 善生产 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 2.93%, the Nasdaq down by 5.77%, and the S&P 500 falling by 4.25% during the week of September 2-6, 2024[6] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased to 3.72%, down by 35 basis points from the previous week[2] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 210.2 billion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 1.1916 trillion CNY for the week of September 2-6[2] - The average rates for DR001 and DR007 were 1.72% and 1.69%, respectively, showing a decrease of 3 basis points and 9 basis points compared to the previous week[2] Currency and Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index closed at 101.18, depreciating by 1.6% from the previous week[6] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.1273, a depreciation of 0.20% compared to the previous weekend[3] Interbank Market and Certificates of Deposit - The issuance rate for one-year certificates of deposit was 1.97% for state-owned banks and 2.07% for city commercial banks as of September 8, 2024[3] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased to 71,237 billion CNY, up by 10,241 billion CNY from the previous week[2] Risk Factors - There are concerns regarding potential overseas economic recession impacting market stability[6] - The report indicates a shift in the long-term outlook from neutral cautious to neutral, reflecting a warning about potential market bubbles similar to the tech bubble of 1997-2000[6]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 【东兴轻工与纺织服装】金牌家居（603180.SH）：业绩承压，大宗、海外延 续增长（20240906） 事件：公司发布 2024 半年报。2024 上半年营收 15.2 亿元，同比+0.9%；归 母净利润 6947 万元，同比-9.1%。其中 Q2 营收 8.8 亿元，同比-5.6%；归母 净利润为 3306 万元，同比-24.4%。 分渠道看，零售业务承压，大宗业务受益竣工增长。1）零售业务。直营、经 销业务分别实现收入 0.1 亿元、6.8 亿元，同比-72.4%、-12.3%；其中 Q2 分 别同比-76.4%、-16.7%。零售业务受到需求压力影响，其中 Q2 压力加大。公 司近年持续推动直营转经销，因此直营下滑幅度高于经销。公司继续推进家 装、线上等多渠道布局，强化流量获取能力。24H1 家装同比增长 45%。24H1 公司总体门店数量未变，橱柜、衣柜门店有所优化，木门、整装、阳台卫浴、 玛尼欧电器等业务继续拓店。2）大宗业务收入 6.0 亿元，同比+15.1%；其中 Q2 同比+9.7%，逆势增长。公司过往风控优 ...

宏 观 研 究 2024 年 9 月 9 日 宏观经济 事件点评 美国就业市场进入中后期 ——8 月美国非农数据点评 分析师 康明怡 电话：021-25102911 邮箱：kangmy@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 事件： 美国 8 月季调后非农就业增 14.2 万，预期 16 万，前值从 11.4 万下修至 8.9 万；失业率 4.2%，预期 4.2%，前值 4.3%。 主要观点： 1、 就业紧绷程度跌落疫情前高位平台，短期非农总量无忧，就业负面因素开始值得关注。 2、 非农贡献最大的建筑和餐饮业岗位空缺数均有下降，并低于疫情前。 3、 收入增速和失业率具有中后期周期性特征。 4、 当前政策利率离中性利率并不太远，预防性降息次数 2~3 次。 5、 维持美国十年期国债利率下限 3.3~3.55%，上限 4.6 ~4.85%；美股维持短期没有明显风险点，长期中性，短线仓位建议 11 月。 就业紧绷程度回落至疫情高位平台以下，非农总量短期尚可，就业负面因素开始值得关注。以岗位空缺数与非农就业总和作 为衡量劳动力市场的需求方，以劳动力人数作为供给方，7 月需求占供给百分比进一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [2][24]. Core Insights - New home sales remain low, while second-hand home transactions continue to grow, driven by suppressed demand in core cities [3][19]. - In the past five trading days, the A-share real estate sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative decline of -2.38% compared to -2.52% for the CSI A-share index [2][7]. - The report highlights that the cumulative sales area of new homes in 24 cities has decreased by 20.7% year-on-year, while second-hand homes have seen a 3.6% increase [3][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - A-share real estate index (801180.SL) has a cumulative decline of -2.38% over the last five trading days, while the H-share real estate index (HSPDM.HK) has a slight increase of 0.06% [2][8]. - The top five A-share companies by cumulative increase in the last five days include Hefei Urban Construction (12.5%) and Quzhou Development (6.5%) [2][9]. Sales Data - The cumulative sales area of new homes from January 1 to September 7 in 24 cities is 9,092.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 20.7% [3][12]. - The cumulative sales area of second-hand homes in 10 cities is 5,231.8 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recovery in core cities will benefit quality real estate companies such as China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China [3][19]. - Increased supply and price advantages of second-hand homes are expected to sustain transaction volumes [3][19]. Upcoming Events - The report notes that the August real estate data will be released in mid-September 2024 [4].

Investment Rating - Strong Buy/Maintain [2] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 612 million yuan, a yoy decrease of 10.66%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million yuan, a yoy decrease of 8.56% [2] - Despite the challenging environment in the pig farming industry, the company's ruminant vaccines showed strong growth, with multiple new products such as high-end brucellosis vaccines and sheep vaccines being launched [2] - The company's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 57.92%, up 0.31 percentage points yoy, and the net profit margin was 20.21%, up 0.89 percentage points yoy [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in pig vaccines in H2 2024 as farming profitability improves [2] - The company is actively advancing R&D, with 75 million yuan invested in H1 2024, accounting for 12.26% of revenue, and several new vaccines in the registration stage [2] - The company is building the world's first animal mRNA vaccine production facility, expected to be operational by 2025, and has established an AI + synthetic biology innovation platform [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 328 million yuan, 418 million yuan, and 524 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.29 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.47 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The PE ratio is expected to be 20x, 16x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Industry and Market Data - The company is a leading player in the animal health industry, with a product portfolio covering over 100 vaccines for pigs, poultry, pets, and ruminants [4] - The company has production qualifications for foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza vaccines, with leading domestic technology and product quality [4] - The company's 52-week stock price range is 10.87 yuan to 5.96 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.677 billion yuan [4] Financial Metrics - Revenue is expected to grow from 1.732 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.490 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.54% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 328 million yuan in 2024 to 524 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 25.46% [5] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 5.88% in 2024 to 8.46% in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 60% from 2024 to 2026 [5]