统计局 70 城房价数据点评:6 月各 线城市住宅价格继续下滑,一线城 市环比跌幅相对更小 2024 年 6 月份,70 个大中城市中,各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比继续下降, 但降幅略微收窄;同比降幅略有扩大。 环比:6 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比继续下降,但降幅略微收窄。 新房:6 月份,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.5%,前值为 -0.7%。其中,北京、上海、深圳、广州当月环比增速分别为-0.6%、0.4%、 -0.7%、-1.2%。 二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.7%,前值为-0.7%;三线城市新 建商品住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.6%,前值为-0.8%。 二手房:6 月份,一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.4%,前值为-1.2%。 其中,北京、上海、深圳、广州当月环比增速分别为 0.2%、0.5%、-1%、-1.5%。 二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比增速为-0.9%,前值为-1%;三线城市二手住 宅销售价格环比增速为-0.9%,前值为-0.9%。 同比:6 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅略有扩大 新房:6 月份,一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比增速为-3.7%, ...

银行行业:社融新增符合预期,信 贷弱需求和存款定期化延续 ——6 月社融金融数据点评 事件:7 月 12 日,人民银行发布 2024 年上半年社融金融数据。6 月社融新增 3.30 万亿,同比少增 0.9 万亿;存量社融增速 8.1%,环比降 0.3pct;6 月人 民币贷款新增 2.13 万亿,同比少增 0.92 万亿;M1 增速-5%,环比下降 0.8pct; M2 增速 6.2%,环比下降 0.8pct。 点评: 社融新增符合预期,高基数影响同比少增。6 月社融增量符合预期,主要源自 贷款新增和政府债发行。同比少增近万亿,主要是去年同期对规模增量诉求较 强导致基数偏高。存量社融增速 8.1%,环比继续下行 0.3pct。展望下半年, 考虑到政府债放量发行以及去年下半年基数不高,社融增速有望平稳于 8%。 信贷需求持续偏弱,企业短贷新增较好。人民币贷款新增 2.13 万亿,环比大 幅提升,体现了季末月份的波动特征。结合 4、5 月份和上年同期数据来看, 对公和居民信贷延续弱需求特征。分部门来看,(1)零售信贷需求持续较弱。 6 月住户贷款新增 5709 亿,同比少增 0.39 万亿。在 5 月地产政策优化 ...

行 业 研 究 银行业跟踪：社融信贷降速符合预期， 货币政策框架改革加速推进 | --- | |-----------------------| | | | 年 7 月 15 日 | | | | 银行 行业报告 | 周观点 6 月社融新增符合预期，信贷弱需求和存款定期化延续。7 月 12 日， 央行公布上半年社融金融数据。（1）6 月社融增量符合预期，主要源 自贷款新增和政府债发行。同比少增近万亿，主要是去年同期对规模 增量诉求较强导致基数偏高。（2）6 月人民币贷款新增 2.13 万亿，同 比少增 0.92 万亿，延续弱需求特征。其中，住户贷款新增 5709 亿， 同比少增 0.39 万亿。在 5 月地产政策优化、住房按揭利率大幅下调的 背景下，叠加考虑 6 月按揭偿还安排或延后等因素，信贷增量仍然有 限。6 月企业短贷新增 6700 亿，继 4、5 月净减少之后有所恢复。若 综合表内外票据融资来看，企业短期资金需求并未明显改善。企业中 长贷新增 9700 亿，同比大幅少增 0.62 万亿。后续政府债发行是否带 动企业中长期贷款投放有待持续观察。（3）M1 同比下降 5%，增速较 5 月份继续下行，一定程度 ...

银行行业:社融新增符合预期,信 贷弱需求和存款定期化延续 ——6 月社融金融数据点评 事件:7 月 12 日,人民银行发布 2024 年上半年社融金融数据。6 月社融新增 3.30 万亿,同比少增 0.9 万亿;存量社融增速 8.1%,环比降 0.3pct;6 月人 民币贷款新增 2.13 万亿,同比少增 0.92 万亿;M1 增速-5%,环比下降 0.8pct; M2 增速 6.2%,环比下降 0.8pct。 点评: 社融新增符合预期,高基数影响同比少增。6 月社融增量符合预期,主要源自 贷款新增和政府债发行。同比少增近万亿,主要是去年同期对规模增量诉求较 强导致基数偏高。存量社融增速 8.1%,环比继续下行 0.3pct。展望下半年, 考虑到政府债放量发行以及去年下半年基数不高,社融增速有望平稳于 8%。 信贷需求持续偏弱,企业短贷新增较好。人民币贷款新增 2.13 万亿,环比大 幅提升,体现了季末月份的波动特征。结合 4、5 月份和上年同期数据来看, 对公和居民信贷延续弱需求特征。分部门来看,(1)零售信贷需求持续较弱。 6 月住户贷款新增 5709 亿,同比少增 0.39 万亿。在 5 月地产政策优化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 0.9 to 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 132.27% to 139.44%, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [2]. - The total number of pigs sold in the first half of 2024 is projected to be 32.388 million, a 7% increase year-on-year, with a continued decline in production costs due to lower feed prices [2]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 3.079 to 3.279 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2024, benefiting from rising pig prices and decreasing costs [2]. - The company aims to enhance its meat processing segment's profitability by expanding market channels and optimizing product structure [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.08 billion, 27.20 billion, and 21.95 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 4.97, and 4.01 yuan [3][4]. - The PE ratios for the same years are expected to be 17, 9, and 11 times [3]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 130.04 billion yuan in 2024 to 149.35 billion yuan in 2025, before slightly declining to 144.45 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated agricultural enterprise in China, specializing in feed processing, pig breeding, and meat processing, and is recognized as one of the largest pig breeding companies in the country [5]. Trading Data - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 241.08 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 168.09 billion yuan [6]. - The stock has traded within a range of 49.35 to 31.64 yuan over the past 52 weeks [6].

东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 点评：自 2023 年 8 月各类严监管政策推出以来，截至 2024 年 6 月底，融券、 转融券规模累计下降 64%、75%。融券规模占 A 股流通市值约 0.05%，每日融 券卖出额占 A 股成交额的比例由 0.7%下降至 0.2%，对市场的影响明显减弱。 相较之下，证监会加强对程序化交易的管理，特别体现了对中小投资者的呵 护。根据证监会数据，年初以来证券市场程序化交易总体稳中有降，交易行 为出现一些积极变化。下一步，证监会主要从五个方面加强对程序化交易的 监管。 2024 年 7 月 2 日，恒天然乳制品拍卖价格指数下跌 6.9%，国际奶价偏弱。全 球乳制品供应幅度微增 0.2%，整体平稳，但需求主要受我国拖累。考虑到供 应充足，需求乏力，预计国际奶价仍将持续震荡。 风险提示：宏观经济下行，消费复苏不及预期等。 (分析师：孟斯硕 执业编码：S1480520070004 电话：010-66554041 分 析师：王洁婷 执业编码：S1480520070003 电话：021-25102900 ) 东兴证券行业：多措并举降低市场波动，监管新政提振投资者信 ...

能源供需格局存在严重不匹配情况。 伴随能源供需缺口持续增大，我国油气对外依存度持续增加。2023 年 6 月，我国原油对外依 存度为 74.77%，天然气对外依存度为 42.55%。较高的油气对外依存度显示了国家目前能源 安全形势严峻，需加大勘探开发力度以保障国家能源安全。 负责本研究报告全部或部分内容的每一位证券分析师，在此申明，本报告的观点、逻辑和论据均为分析师本 人研究成果，引用的相关信息和文字均已注明出处。本报告依据公开的信息来源，力求清晰、准确地反映分 析师本人的研究观点。本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与、现在不与，未来也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐或 观点直接或间接相关。 首席周观点：2024年第28周 P10 公司投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指数）： 以报告日后的 6 个月内，公司股价相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 5％～15％之间； 中性：相对于市场基准指数收益率介于-5％～+5％之间； 回避：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 行 ...

Inflation Trends - The U.S. June CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below the expected 3.1%[1] - Core CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.4%[1] Inflation Dynamics - Inflationary stickiness has notably weakened, showing both trends and seasonal patterns[2] - The current policy interest rate is close to the neutral rate, limiting the frequency of preventive rate cuts[3] Price Movements - Oil and housing prices have both seen a decline in month-on-month growth rates; gasoline prices fell by 3.8%[4] - Core inflation components showed mixed results, with housing prices increasing by 0.2% while airfare dropped by 5%[4] Economic Outlook - Preventive rate cuts are deemed reasonable, with the CPI remaining stable within the historical range of 3% to 3.8% for 13 consecutive months[5] - The U.S. economy is expected to perform well in Q3 and Q4 if no recession occurs in the first half of the year[6] Market Implications - Short-term recession risks in the U.S. stock market are low, supported by stable economic investments and AI breakthroughs[9] - Long-term market bubbles may re-emerge, reminiscent of the 1997-2000 tech bubble, due to tightening monetary policies[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth driven by the expansion of traditional small parts and the development of new energy medium and large parts. Revenue growth rates for 2021-2023 were 23.75%, 33.05%, and 39.67%, respectively, with a 30.69% year-on-year growth in Q1 2024 [1][2]. - The automotive segment has also seen significant sales growth, with product sales increasing by 69.6% in 2022 and 65.2% in 2023. The average selling prices for automotive products were 13.4 yuan/piece and 11.8 yuan/piece, respectively [1]. - The company is enhancing its market share in various small and medium-sized components, which are considered "invisible champions" in the automotive sector, providing a competitive edge in efficiency and cost [1]. - The new energy vehicle (NEV) segment is steadily advancing, with NEV-related products accounting for approximately 30% of sales in 2023. The company expects that 90% of the projected sales revenue from its aluminum die-casting segment will come from NEV projects [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 4,265.24 million yuan, with a growth rate of 33.05%. For 2023, revenue reached 5,957.28 million yuan, growing by 39.67%. Projections for 2024-2026 indicate revenues of 7,587.93 million yuan, 9,593.37 million yuan, and 11,868.22 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 27.37%, 26.43%, and 23.71% [3][10]. - The net profit for 2022 was 648.54 million yuan, increasing to 913.40 million yuan in 2023. Forecasts for net profit in 2024-2026 are 1,146.23 million yuan, 1,417.47 million yuan, and 1,789.54 million yuan, respectively [3][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.17 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.83 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully established a production base in Mexico, which began operations in July 2023, and is currently constructing a second phase for NEV structural components, expected to be operational by 2025 [1]. - The company’s inventory turnover days improved to 80 days in 2023, down from 97 days in 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [1].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,970.39, up 1.06% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,870.36, up 1.99% [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 1,685.12, up 2.06% [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,832.33, up 2.06% [1] Capital Market and Brokerage Industry - Capital market reforms and macroeconomic recovery trends are key drivers for the brokerage industry's value recovery [3] - Business model innovation is expected to open up new profit growth opportunities for brokerages [3] - M&A remains a major theme in the industry, with head institutions benefiting from innovative development models and external M&A trends [3] - Securities ETFs provide more investment options for the sector [3] Company Highlights - Beijing KERUI Electric won a bid for the 2024 Southern Power Grid distribution network equipment project, with an estimated contract value of 279 million yuan, accounting for 14.29% of its 2023 audited revenue [4] - Yiling Pharmaceutical received acceptance notice from NMPA for its new drug application of "Anilofos Injection" [45] - Ankai Bus expects to turn a profit in H1 2024, with net profit forecasted between 6.5-8.5 million yuan, compared to a loss of 66.1685 million yuan in the same period last year [46] - Yongshuntai expects H1 2024 net profit to grow 131.80%-200.07% YoY to 146-189 million yuan [103] Dairy Industry - Global milk prices are expected to remain volatile due to sufficient supply and weak demand [9] - China's dairy imports in Jan-May 2024 totaled 1.0946 million tons, down 15% YoY, with import value down 24.6% YoY [8] - Domestic milk prices continue to decline, with June 2024 average price at 3.30 yuan/kg, down 0.53% MoM and 13.55% YoY [77] - Capacity reduction efforts are showing initial results, with daily raw milk production reduced by 4,500 tons since March 2024 [53] Banking Sector - The banking sector PB ratio was 0.59x as of July 5, at the 40th percentile over the past five years [16] - Short-term interest rates declined, with DR001 and DR007 weekly averages down 22BP and 30BP respectively [17] - The sector is expected to benefit from deposit cost improvements and marginal asset quality enhancements [14] - High-dividend banking stocks are seen as attractive in the current low interest rate environment [14] Real Estate Market - 11 cities saw a 66.6% YoY increase in secondary housing sales area in early July [21] - Beijing and Shenzhen secondary housing sales grew 56.5% and 137.7% YoY respectively in early July [21] - 24 cities' cumulative new home sales area in 2024 (Jan 1-Jul 6) decreased 27.5% YoY [24] - A-share real estate index gained 0.81% in the past five trading days, outperforming the broader market [94] Energy Sector - IEA forecasts 2024 oil demand growth at 970,000 barrels/day, up from previous estimate of 960,000 barrels/day [6] - 2025 oil demand growth is projected at 980,000 barrels/day, slightly lower than previous estimate of 1 million barrels/day [6] Technology and Innovation - China successfully established the world's first 6G test network integrating communication and intelligence [41] - The 6G network demonstrates significant improvements in capacity, coverage, and efficiency [41] Machinery Industry - Hanbell Precise Machinery's vacuum pump revenue share increased from 5.07% in 2016 to 42.63% in 2023 [33] - The company is expected to benefit from refrigeration equipment updates, with potential market demand exceeding 35 million units [34] - Hanbell's gross margin improved from 32.63% in 2018 to 40.32% in 2023 [33] Regulatory Updates - CSRC suspended securities lending business and raised margin requirements for short selling [41] - The number of high-frequency trading accounts decreased by over 20% in 2024 [73]