关注政策发力下龙头和优秀公司的 估值修复 2024 年 8 月 20 日 看好/维持 非金属材料 行业报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 周观点：关注政策发力下龙头和优秀公司的估值修复 房地产无收敛的负向循环影响大，政策不断发力推动回归。我们在 2023 年 11 月 28 日发布的年度报告《2024 年建筑建材行业展望：内需之重下的新平衡》 中提到地产行业存在着无收敛的负向循环：1、房产的财富效应下降会抑制购 房需求导致地产价格下降形成无收敛的负向循环；2、购地意愿下降导致地方 政府基建受到影响，地产配套设施受到影响也会影响购房需求，地产企业自循 环经营难以改善，也会进一步影响购地和地方政府收入。地产行业产业链较长， 对经济的影响大，不但是地产相关链条的实业行业，还有对地产相关的资产和 金融链条形成影响。对总需求的影响较大，对于内需形成较大的抑制作用，容 易继续加强经济量强价弱的状况，也影响到经济的良性循环。所以，地产在成 为经济风险因素的情况下，政策会不断地发力，地产风险不得到控制，政策不 会停止，保证地产回归长期健康发展轨道。 地产回归长期健康发展和公司自身成长提升带来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper industry, indicating a strong growth phase for global copper consumption from 2024 to 2027, with an expected increase of 11.3% to 11.345 million tons [2][11]. Core Insights - Global copper consumption is entering a cyclical strong growth phase, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.88% expected during 2024-2027 [11]. - China's copper consumption is projected to grow significantly, with the four major copper-consuming industries (appliances, transportation, construction, and electricity) expected to increase their copper usage by 325,000 tons, reaching 1.4546 million tons by 2027, representing a CAGR of 6.3% [2][29]. - The report highlights the resilience and elasticity of copper consumption in China, driven by the transition to low-carbon energy and new production capabilities [10][29]. Summary by Sections Global Copper Consumption - Global copper consumption is expected to rise by 11.3% to 11.345 million tons from 2024 to 2027, with a historical average growth rate of 2.85% over the past 30 years [11]. - The concentration of global copper consumption is high, with China accounting for 58.2% of total consumption in 2023 [16][17]. Chinese Copper Consumption - In 2023, the four major industries accounted for 79% of China's total copper consumption, with a total of 1.1397 million tons [2]. - The appliance industry is projected to have a CAGR of 4.4% from 2023 to 2027, with total copper consumption reaching 301,000 tons [31]. - The transportation sector is expected to see a CAGR of 16.3%, with total copper consumption reaching 235,000 tons by 2027 [33][34]. - The construction industry is projected to have a modest CAGR of 1.6%, with copper consumption reaching 120.4 thousand tons by 2027 [2]. - The electricity investment sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.5%, with total copper consumption reaching 3.69 million tons during the same period [2]. Industry Outlook - The copper market is anticipated to remain in a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints likely to persist due to rigid upstream supply and strong downstream demand [4]. - The report notes an increase in the allocation of public funds to the copper industry, indicating a growing interest from institutional investors [4]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned in the report include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jinchuan Group, and Jiangxi Copper [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 3.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -16 million yuan compared to 202 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to insufficient demand in the domestic network communication market, with both volume and price falling [1]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base in the data communication and automotive electronics sectors, with significant growth in automotive electronics sales, which increased by over 360% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects a slight decline in overall revenue for the year, but anticipates a turnaround in profitability through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company's operating costs were 3.539 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 11.3%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts operating revenues of 8.332 billion yuan, 8.864 billion yuan, and 9.328 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 216.77 million yuan, 273.67 million yuan, and 315.23 million yuan for the same years [2][3]. - The company’s revenue from its PON series products increased by 0.56% year-on-year, while revenue from AP series products and DSL products decreased by 15.05% and 7.88% respectively [1]. Customer Expansion and Market Outlook - The data communication segment has begun delivering 800G data center switches, and the automotive electronics segment has added three new mass production customers [1]. - The company has made significant progress in expanding its overseas customer base, with nearly ten overseas clients for its switches [1]. - The report suggests that the data communication market may improve in the second half of the year due to the delivery of 400G and 800G switches [1].

东兴晨报 P1 2024 年 8 月 20 日星期二 分析师推荐 【东兴交运】京东物流（02618.HK）：成本管控卓有成效，Q2 业绩超预期 （20240819） 事件：上半年京东物流实现营收 863.45 亿元，同比增长 11.0%，实现归母净 利润 22.6 亿；实现调整后净利润 31.2 亿元，较去年同期的 1.14 亿元大幅增长。 公司二季度单季实现调整后净利润 24.6 亿元，较 23Q2 的 8.3 亿元提升 197%。 外部客户收入稳步提升，其他客户收入增长较快：公司上半年营收同比增长 11.0%，其中来自京东集团收入 264 亿元，同比增长 10.7%，来自外部客户的 收入 599 亿元，同比增长 11.2%。 外部客户中，一体化供应链客户收入为 154 亿元，同比增长 2.7%，其中客户 数量由去年同期的 6.08 万名提升 5.9%至报告期的 6.44 万名，而单客户平均 收入略降，由 24.7 万元降至 23.9 万元；外部客户中其他客户的收入为 445 亿 元，同比增长 14.5%，其中控股的德邦物流上半年营收 184 亿元，增长 17.5%。 成本管控卓有成效，二季度业绩超预期：公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for JD Logistics (02618 HK) [17][22] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved revenue of 863 45 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11 0%, with adjusted net profit reaching 31 2 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 1 14 billion yuan in the same period last year [17] - The company's Q2 adjusted net profit was 24 6 billion yuan, a 197% increase compared to 8 3 billion yuan in Q2 2023 [17] - External customer revenue grew by 11 2%, with revenue from integrated supply chain customers increasing by 2 7% and other external customer revenue rising by 14 5% [17] - Cost control measures were effective, with Q2 costs increasing by only 3 5%, leading to a gross profit increase from 3 4 billion yuan to 5 3 billion yuan and a gross margin improvement from 8 3% to 11 9% [17] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from JD Group was 264 billion yuan, up 10 7%, while external customer revenue was 599 billion yuan, up 11 2% [17] - Integrated supply chain customer revenue was 154 billion yuan, with the number of customers increasing by 5 9% to 64,400, although average revenue per customer decreased slightly from 247,000 yuan to 239,000 yuan [17] - Revenue from other external customers was 445 billion yuan, with Deppon Logistics, a subsidiary, contributing 184 billion yuan, up 17 5% [17] Cost Control and Efficiency - Q2 cost growth was limited to 3 5%, primarily due to a reduction in outsourcing costs from 14 5 billion yuan to 14 0 billion yuan [17] - Employee compensation increased by 13 1% to 15 1 billion yuan, while other costs such as rent and depreciation remained stable [17] - Efficiency improvements were driven by optimized warehouse network layout, enhanced automation, and better vehicle scheduling through algorithmic optimization [17] Financial Projections - The report forecasts JD Logistics' net profit under international financial reporting standards to be 3 59 billion yuan in 2024, 4 39 billion yuan in 2025, and 5 19 billion yuan in 2026 [17] - Revenue growth is expected to be 12 24% in 2024, 9 36% in 2025, and 8 38% in 2026 [19] - Net profit growth is projected at 483 41% in 2024, 22 20% in 2025, and 18 25% in 2026 [19] Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 88 14 in 2023 to 16 23 in 2024, 13 28 in 2025, and 11 23 in 2026 [19] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 1 21 in 2023 to 1 13 in 2024, 1 05 in 2025, and 0 97 in 2026 [19] Industry Context - The logistics and transportation industry is expected to see marginal improvements, with high-dividend stocks likely to remain strong [24] - The report highlights the importance of price and service differentiation in the competitive logistics market [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiangsu Bank [2][10]. Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's H1 2024 results show steady profit growth, with revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit reaching 41.62 billion, 31.85 billion, and 18.73 billion respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 7.2%, 5.1%, and 10.1% [2][3]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) stands at 16.42%, a decrease of 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth has slowed down compared to the previous quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.6 percentage points [3]. - Net interest income increased by 1.8% year-on-year, supported by strong loan growth, while fee and commission income rose by 11.3% year-on-year, driven by a 30.7% increase in agency fee income [3]. - The cost-to-income ratio is at 22.4%, which is relatively low compared to peers, and credit impairment losses decreased by 6.3% year-on-year [3]. Loan Growth and Asset Quality - Total assets grew by 14.5% year-on-year, with loans and financial investments increasing by 8.5% and 12.8% respectively [4]. - Corporate loans saw a significant increase of 197.5 billion, while retail loans decreased by 18 billion, primarily due to declines in consumer and operational loans [4]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains stable at 0.89%, with a slight increase in the proportion of loans under scrutiny [6][10]. Interest Margin and Cost of Liabilities - The net interest margin (NIM) is reported at 1.9%, reflecting a decrease of 8 basis points from the previous quarter [5]. - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities has improved, with a decrease in the interest rates on deposits and bonds [5]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain a leading position in terms of scale and profit growth within the industry, with projected net profit growth rates of 10.7%, 10.0%, and 12.5% for 2024-2026 [10][11]. - The closing price on August 19, 2024, was 7.67 CNY per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.58 times [10].

房地产周报20240819: 新房销售降 幅收窄，二手房成交维持增长 2024 年 8 月 19 日 看好/维持 房地产 行业报告 近 5 个交易日 A 股地产板块表现弱于大盘、H 股地产板块表现弱于大盘。 A 股房地产指数(801180.SL)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为-3.91%，中证 A 股指数 (930903.CSI)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为-0.07%。A 股房地产板块近 5 个交易日 累计涨幅最高的 5 家公司为津投城开(18.8%)、*ST 金科(7.7%)、栖霞建设 (3.7%)、空港股份(1.6%)、外高桥(0.1%)。 H 股恒生地产及物业管理指数(HSPDM.HK)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为-2.10%， H 股恒生指数(HSI.HK)近 5 个交易日累计涨幅为 1.99%。H 股房地产板块近 5 个交易日累计涨幅最高的 5 家公司为卡森国际(13.7%)、中国奥园(10.4%)、贝 壳-W(8.8%)、正荣地产(8.6%)、阳光 100 中国(7.4%)。 8/1~8/17，新房销售降幅收窄，二手房成交维持增长。 26 城商品房年内累计销售面积(1/1~8/17)同比增速为-24.7 ...

东兴晨报 P1 A 股港股市场 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证指数 2,879.43 0.07 深证成指 8,349.87 -0.24 创业板 1,591.46 -0.08 中小板 5,352.24 -0.3 沪深 300 3,345.63 0.11 香港恒生 17,419.64 1.88 国企指数 6,157.46 2.06 名称 价格 行业 发行日 佳力奇 18.09 国防军工 20240819 益诺思 - 医药生物 20240823 A 股新股日历（日内上市新股） 名称 价格 行业 上市日 分析师推荐 【东兴金属】铜行业深度报告(I)：矿端供给增速或仍显现阶段性偏刚性特征 （20240819） 投资摘要： 全球铜矿供应增速仍显现刚性特征。铜矿供给经历了 2017-2022 全球铜矿供 给增速的持续下行叠加2023年至今供给端的扰动共振令矿端供应增速依然处 于较低水平，至 2023 年全球铜矿供给年增长率仅 1.18%，较 2022 年下滑 2.14pct，显示供给的偏刚性。通过观察矿企的产量指引及分析前期资本开支 计划，以及对可能扰动事件的预估，我们预计 2023-2026 年的铜矿年均增速 或降至 1 ...

公 司 研 究 2024 年 8 月 19 日 推荐/维持 上海机场 公司报告 52 周股价区间（元） 46.1-30.89 总市值（亿元） 846.58 流通市值（亿元） 655.55 总股本/流通A股（万股） 248,848/248,848 流通 B 股/H 股（万股） -/- 52 周日均换手率 1.07 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 分析师：曹奕丰 营业收入（百万元） 5,480.45 11,047.02 13,347.95 14,838.79 15,692.51 021-25102904 caoyf_yjs@dxzq.net.cn 增长率（%） 47.02% 101.57% 20.83% 11.17% 5.75% 执业证书编号： S1480519050005 归母净利润（百万元） -2,994.95 934.05 1,938.92 2,989.79 3,421.25 增长率（%） 75.05% -131.19% 107.58% 54.20% 14.43% 净资产收益率（%） -7.56% 2.30% 4.63% 6.80% 7.38% 每股收益（元） -1.26 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.992 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, but turned profitable in the second quarter with a net profit of 97 million yuan [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to reduced demand from operators for network construction and a slowdown in 5G investment [2] - The company is expected to achieve slight revenue growth for the full year due to an increase in bid amounts and entering the order fulfillment period in the second half of the year [2] - Cost control measures have led to a decrease in expenses, with operating costs at 2.237 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.3%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company continues to invest in satellite internet research and development, with a total investment of 680 million yuan in the first half of the year, indicating strong innovation capabilities [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to generate revenues of 8.433 billion yuan, 9.577 billion yuan, and 11 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.29 million yuan, 131.13 million yuan, and 227.53 million yuan [3][7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 2680X, 129X, and 74X for the same years [3][7]