顾家家居（603816.SH）：外销稳步 增长，毛利率保持提升 2024 年 8 月 23 日 推荐/维持 顾家家居 公司报告 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：公司发布 2024 半年报。2024 上半年营收 89.1 亿元，同比+0.3%；归 母净利润 9.0 亿元，同比-3.0%。其中 Q2 营收 45.6 亿元，同比-7.4%；归母 净利润为 4.8 亿元，同比-9.1%。 分市场看，内销静待回暖，外销稳健增长。2024H1 内销收入 47.2 亿元，同比 -9.8%，行业需求恢复较缓。面对行业变化，公司积极提高产品性价比，推出 "惠民工程"系列产品，在定制家具商推出 698 套餐进攻市场。整家模式继续 推进中，融合大店快速拓展，整家套餐销售占比超 35%。内销毛利率 37.8%， 同比提升 1.3pct，性价比趋势下逆势提升，运营提效措施效果明显。针对存量 市场，公司探索"局装/微改换新丢旧"模式，有望在未来成为业绩增长点。 2024H1 外销收入 38.9 亿元，同比+12.6%，有所回暖。推测海运费涨价导致 订单延后，对 Q2 收入造成扰动。商超客户的拓展有望 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4][9][15] Core Views - ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 15.62 billion pieces in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%. The second quarter saw a business volume of 8.45 billion pieces, up 10.1% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's market share decreased from 21.6% to 19.6% year-on-year in Q2, as ZTO prioritized revenue quality over volume, leading to slower growth compared to the industry average [2][3] - Despite a decline in market share, ZTO's revenue quality improved, with Q2 single-ticket revenue slightly increasing to 1.24 CNY from 1.23 CNY year-on-year, indicating a focus on quality service [2][3] - The report anticipates a business volume growth rate of at least 18% in the second half of the year to meet the annual guidance of 15-18% growth [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, ZTO reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.04 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 5.03 billion CNY, up 13.0% year-on-year, primarily due to a 673 million CNY impairment charge on equity investments [2][3] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 9.38 billion CNY, 11.72 billion CNY, and 13.37 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9X, 10.3X, and 9.0X [3][7] - The company maintains a balanced strategy of enhancing service quality, business scale, and profitability, which has led to a strong brand recognition and customer satisfaction [3][7] Cost and Profitability Analysis - In Q2, ZTO's single-ticket cost was 0.82 CNY, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, with transportation costs decreasing by 6.8% to 0.39 CNY, while sorting costs rose by 4.6% to 0.26 CNY [2][3] - The report indicates that while single-ticket costs have stabilized, there is potential for further cost reduction as new equipment utilization increases with growing business volume [3][8]

公 司 研 究 中宠股份（002891.SZ）：主粮表现 亮眼，员工持股计划彰显发展信心 2024 年 8 月 22 日 强烈推荐/维持 中宠股份 公司报告 事件：公司公布 2024 年半年报，公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 19.56 亿 元，yoy14.08%，实现归母净利润 1.42 亿元，yoy48.11%。公司同时公告 2024 年员工计划（草案）。 境内外收入稳健增长，毛利率提升带动业绩高增。分区域来看，公司境外主营 业务收入 13.39 亿元，同比增长 10.22%；境内主营业务收入 6.17 亿元，同比 增长 23.45%，境外境内业务共同带动公司营业收入稳健增长。24H1 公司整体 毛利率 28.98%，相比去年同期提升 3.33 个百分点，带动了业绩高速增长。分 区域来看，境外、境内业务毛利率分别为 25.10%和 37.03%，相比去年同期分 别提升 2.80%和 3.61%。 主粮业务表现亮眼，自主品牌梳理调整有序推进。公司宠物主粮销售高速增长， 24H1 实现营收 4.22 亿元，同比增长 83.96%；主粮产品毛利率提升幅度最大， 24H1 毛利率 35.84%，相比去年同期 ...

安井食品（603345.SH）：小龙虾及 水产短期承压，主业依旧稳健 2024 年 8 月 22 日 强烈推荐/维持 安井食品 公司报告 事件： 公司 2024H1 实现营业收入 75.44 亿元，同比+9.42%；实现归母净利 8.03 亿 元，同比+9.17%，扣非归母净利润 7.72 亿元，同比+11.11%。其中，24Q2 营收 37.89 亿元，同比+2.31%；归母净利润 3.64 亿元，同比-2.51%；扣非归 母净利润 3.52 亿元，同比+0.79%。公司披露半年度利润分配方案，拟每股派 发现金红利 1.38 元（含税），24H1 现金分红和回购金额合计 4.6 亿元（含税）， 约占公司 2024 年半年度归母净利润 57.50%，现金分红重视股东回报，彰显 企业长期信心。 速冻调制食品稳健增长，短时间受餐饮及小龙虾拖累。分产品来看，公司上半 年速冻调制食品/菜肴制品/速冻面米制品/农副产品/休闲食品收入分别为 38.33/22.08/12.91/1.90/0.0015 亿 元 ， 分 别 同 比 +21.86%/+0.40%/+1.37%/-27.08%/-94.48%。其中，Q2 公司将 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.09% [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company reached 721 million yuan, up 20.38% year-on-year [1][2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 688 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.35% [1][2] - In the second quarter, the company reported operating revenue of 1.188 billion yuan, a 5.98% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 354 million yuan, up 6.74% [1][2] Group 2: Business Segmentation - Revenue from domestic personal office service subscriptions was 1.53 billion yuan, growing 22.17% year-on-year [2][7] - Revenue from domestic institutional subscription and service business was 443 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.95% [2][7] - Revenue from domestic institutional authorization business decreased by 10.14% to 325 million yuan, while international and other business revenue fell by 18.12% to 115 million yuan [2][7] Group 3: Customer Metrics - The number of monthly active devices for the company's main products reached 602 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.08% [2][8] - The cumulative number of annual paying individual users reached 38.15 million, reflecting a growth of 14.79% [2][8] - The company served over 18,000 major government and enterprise clients with its WPS365 product by the end of the reporting period [2][8] Group 4: Financial Health - The company's gross margin was 84.92%, a slight decrease of 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, but still at a high level [2][7] - Contract liabilities totaled 2.685 billion yuan, indicating a strong potential for long-term revenue growth [2][7] Group 5: AI and Product Development - The company launched WPSAI 2.0 and introduced the WPS365 productivity platform, enhancing its AI capabilities [4][8] - The integration of AIHub, AIDocs, and CopilotPro into the WPSAI Enterprise Edition aims to improve customer experience and retention [4][8] - The company collaborated with Huawei to develop a WPS version compatible with HarmonyOS, addressing cross-platform compatibility issues [4][8] Group 6: Industry Insights - In July, the national express service industry completed a business volume of 14.26 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 22.2% [5][9] - The average single ticket price in the express industry fell to 7.77 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [5][9] - The ongoing price war in the express industry is pushing companies to enhance service quality and reduce homogenization [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [7][12][26] Core Views - Changshu Bank demonstrates outstanding growth characteristics with a leading profit growth rate in the industry [2][3] - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 increased by 12.0% and 19.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [2][3] - The bank's annualized weighted average ROE improved to 13.28%, up 0.88 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Revenue Summary - Core revenue, which includes net interest income and net fee income, grew by 6.6% year-on-year, with net interest income increasing by 6.1% [4] - Fee income surged by 71.4%, driven by significant growth in agency services, particularly in wealth management and insurance [4] - Other non-interest income rose by 52.9%, accounting for 16.1% of total revenue, with investment income increasing by 96% due to favorable bond market conditions [4] Cost Summary - Management expenses decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, leading to a cost-to-income ratio of 35.2% [5] - Pre-provision profit grew by 23.2% year-on-year, reflecting effective cost control measures [5] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 538.8%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [5][13] Loan and Asset Quality Summary - Total assets increased by 15.6% year-on-year, with loans growing by 11.3% [6] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in the ratio of loans under scrutiny [13] - The bank's loan growth was primarily driven by corporate lending, while retail lending saw a decline [6][13] Interest Margin Summary - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first half of 2024 was 2.79%, slightly down by 4 basis points from the previous quarter [7] - The bank's ability to maintain a competitive NIM is attributed to effective pricing strategies and a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises [12][13] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 108.7 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 10.2% [14] - Net profit is expected to grow to 38.9 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18.6% increase [14] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve to 14.6% by 2024 [14]

快递 7 月数据点评：淡季业务量维持高 增，价格降至底部区域，期待后续边际 改善 2024 年 8 月 22 日 看好/维持 交通运输 行业报告 事件：7 月全国快递服务企业业务完成量 142.6 亿件，同比增长 22.2%， 增速较 6 月的 17.7%环比提升。分类型看，同城件业务量增长 15.1%， 异地件业务量增长 22.8%。 点评： 淡季行业件量依旧维持高增长：7 月行业逐步进入淡季，快递业务量环 比 6 月小幅下降，但业务量增速重新回升至较高水平。 通达系三家上市公司增速皆超过 25%，申通市场份额较去年同期提升 约 1.3pct，韵达份额同比提升约 0.6pct。圆通份额同比增长 0.5pct。环 比来看，申通、韵达与圆通环比 6 月份额分别增长 0.2pct、0.2pct 和 下降 0.1pct。7 月圆通、韵达和申通的市场份额分别为 15.0%、14.1% 和 13.7%，三家上市公司份额还在逐渐拉近。 顺丰业务量增速提升至 16.6%。由于丰网于 23 年 6 月完成了交割，自 7 月起公司业务量数据不需要再考虑丰网影响。 单价降至底部区域，继续降价的空间较为有限： 价格方面，7 月行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated substantial growth in both revenue and profit, with a 42.27% year-on-year increase in revenue to CNY 6.505 billion and a 46.35% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to CNY 1.075 billion in the first half of 2024 [2][3]. - The company's gold production capacity is expected to continue growing, with projected production reaching 8.6 tons in 2024 and a high probability of achieving the long-term target of 15 tons by 2026 [3][8]. - The company has a strong operational efficiency, reflected in the increase of its gold gross margin to 71.89%, up from 60.76% in the previous year [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024 H1, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 6.505 billion, a 42.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1.075 billion, marking a 46.35% growth [2][3]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) rose to CNY 0.387, up 46.33% from the previous year [2][3]. - The gross margin for gold production improved significantly, reaching 71.89%, an increase of 11.37 percentage points [3][8]. Mining Resources and Exploration - The company holds 15 exploration rights covering 175.42 square kilometers, with significant mineral reserves including 156.78 tons of gold and 7856.9 tons of silver [2][3]. - The exploration potential in regions like Daqing and Qinghai is substantial, with ongoing projects expected to enhance the value of mining rights [2][3]. Production and Cost Efficiency - The company's gold production increased to 4.16 tons in 2024 H1, with a production-to-sales ratio of 106% [3][8]. - The cost of gold production has been optimized, with the cost per gram decreasing to CNY 146.53, making it one of the best in the industry [8]. - The company has also seen improvements in the production of silver, lead, and zinc, with respective gross margins of 44.6%, 40.15%, and 40.28% [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 10.729 billion, CNY 12.512 billion, and CNY 15.420 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected to reach CNY 2.177 billion, CNY 2.679 billion, and CNY 3.505 billion [8][9]. - The anticipated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is CNY 0.78, CNY 0.96, and CNY 1.26 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [8][9].

金山办公（688111.SH）：业绩符合 预期，AI 产品拓展顺利 2024 年 8 月 22 日 强烈推荐/维持 金山办公 公司报告 ——2024 半年报点评 事件：8 月 20 日，公司发布 2024 半年度报告。报告期内公司实现营业收入 24.13 亿元，同比增长 11.09%；归属于母公司所有者净利润 7.21 亿元，同比 增长 20.38%；归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益净利润 6.88 亿元，同比 增长 19.35%。单二季度来看，公司实现营业收入 11.88 亿元，同比增长 5.98%； 实现归母净利润 3.54 亿元，同比增长 6.74%。 点评： 业绩符合预期，订阅业务双轮驱动。1）整体来看，报告期内公司实现营业收 入 24.13 亿元，同比增长 11.09%；归属于母公司所有者净利润 7.21 亿元，同 比增长 20.38%；归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益净利润 6.88 亿元，同 比增长 19.35%。单二季度来看，公司实现营业收入 11.88 亿元，同比增长 5.98%；实现归母净利润 3.54 亿元，同比增长 6.74%。公司业绩在外部压力 下仍保持稳健增长，彰显经营实力；2 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Global copper consumption is expected to enter a cyclical strong growth phase, with a projected increase of 11.3% to 113.45 million tons from 2024 to 2027, translating to an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.88% [1][8] - China's copper consumption outlook remains positive, with the four major copper-consuming industries (appliances, transportation, construction, and electricity) projected to increase their copper usage by 3.25 million tons to 14.546 million tons by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% [1][8] - The appliance industry is expected to see an average CAGR of 4.4% in copper consumption from 2023 to 2027, with total copper consumption reaching 3.01 million tons by 2027 [1][8] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The transportation sector is projected to experience a CAGR of 16.3% in copper consumption from 2023 to 2027, with total consumption reaching 2.35 million tons by 2027, driven by traditional and new energy vehicles as well as charging infrastructure [2][8] - The construction industry is expected to have a modest CAGR of 1.6%, with copper consumption estimated at 1.204 million tons by 2027, influenced by urbanization trends and construction activity [9][8] - The electricity sector remains a core driver of copper consumption growth, with a projected CAGR of 5.5% from 2023 to 2027, leading to a total copper consumption of 36.9 million tons during this period [9][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The copper market is likely to continue experiencing a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and strong demand elasticity contributing to a tight market environment [10][8] - The supply side of the copper market is characterized by rigid growth due to macroeconomic and policy cycles, while demand is influenced by various external factors, leading to a scenario where copper prices are expected to remain resilient [10][8] - The increasing allocation of public funds to the copper industry, rising from 0.39% in Q2 2022 to 2.58% in Q2 2024, indicates growing confidence in the sector's prospects [10][8]