Economic Overview - Inflation remains sticky, providing a basis for loose monetary policy[2] - Current economic state shows natural recovery with slight improvement in net exports[12] - Domestic economy is recovering but requires time, with service sector recovery being sustainable[8] Monetary Policy - Global trend is shifting towards interest rate cuts, potentially starting by the end of Q2[4] - The necessity for rate cuts within the year is decreasing, with the U.S. not likely to return to long-term low rates seen from 2008 to 2022[41] Capital Markets - U.S. stock market shows low short-term recession risk, with no significant risk points identified[21] - A-shares are at a bottom range, with the Shanghai Composite Index's 5-year PB moving average still below 0.9[44] - Recommendations include increasing allocation to U.S. short-term bonds with maturities under 2 years[25] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate sector shows slight improvement compared to 2023, but significant recovery is challenging[8] - Investment is slightly declining due to export and real estate investment drag[142] Consumer and Retail - Consumer spending is expected to support the economy, although growth may be slightly below 2023 levels[58] - Retail sales growth is not keeping pace with service consumption[147]

DONGXING SECURITIES 分析师 康明怡 联系方式：13795374754 执业证书编号：S1480519090001 提纲 国内经济恢复性复苏中后期：信贷、财政政策均出现拐点 风险提示：美国大选落地前后，特朗普的对外政策可能与当前政府有所不同；国内需求不足导致经济放缓。 海外经济主要观点 • 耐受性：家庭部门可承受高利率；企业部门杠杆较高，但基于负债利率结构，需更长时间显现。 • 降息时间点：年内降息窗口很窄，可参考核心CPI环比连续两个月靠近0.2%。 • 美十债隐含降息利率为0。 宏 观 研 究 --2024年半年度大类资产配置 东兴宏观 2024年5月29日 实体经济 ：全球商品库存周期开始部分正常化，美国年内衰退概率不大。 货币政策 ：年内降息必要性下降。 美股 ：短期没有明显风险点；长期处于趋势性泡沫，2023年年底从中性谨慎转为中性。 美债 ：隐含降息幅度为0，上限4.6~4.75%；若再次突破5%，则对美股产生压制作用。 资本市场 A股 ：底部区域 利率 ：国内利率中枢下降 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴宏观 P3 • 商品贸易出现转暖，全球制造业PMI回升至荣枯线以上。 • 家庭负债 ...

宏观经济：2024 年半年度大类资产配置 P5 从 2023 年三季度起，欧美制造业 PMI 有筑底迹象。2024 年一季度商品制造部分进入补库存阶段，欧美制 造业 PMI 大部分达到荣枯线以上。3 月，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 首次进入扩张区间，从库存分项来看，制造 业新订单增多，客户库存下降，补库存逻辑顺畅（图 5）。从历史经验来看，PMI 的周期一般为 2-3 年；从国 际贸易链条看，韩日本出口从底部回升明显，贸易流通转暖（图 6）。另一方面，美国商品消费有所回落，补 库存带来的边际改善的可持续性尚不明朗。 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 2014-092015-032015-092016-032016-092017-032017-092018-032018-092019-032019-092020-032020-092021-032021-092022-032022-092023-032023-092024-03 美国:Markit:服务业PMI:商业活动(初值) 英国:服务业PMI:商业活动(初值) 资料来源：iFinD，东兴证券研究所 资料来源：iFinD，东兴证券研究所 -30 - ...

东 兴 晨 报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|--------------------------------|-------------------| | 分析师推荐 \n【东兴计算机】光大同创（ 301387.SZ ）：深度服务大客户，进军碳纤维加工 | A 股港股市场 \n指数名称 | 2024 | 年 5 月 28 \n收盘价 | 日星期二 \n涨跌 % | | 领域（ 20240527） | 上证指数 | | 3,109.57 | -0.46 | | | 深证成指 | | 9,391.05 | -1.23 | | 光大同创深耕消费电子防护性及功能性产品，形成了相对完善的产能布局， | ...

行 业 研 究 纺织服装：纺织制造板块持续复苏，服装 2024年5月28日 看好/维持 家纺关注股息率 纺织服装 行业报告 东 兴 证 分析师 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 券 分析师 常子杰 电话：010-66554040 邮箱：changzj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480521080005 股 分析师 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 份 有 投资摘要： 限 公 回顾纺织服装行业表现： 司 2023年服装板块业绩修复，纺织板块表现平淡。服装家纺板块2023年调整（剔除ST）后收入1,533亿元，同比+3.9%，归母 证 净利润123亿元，同比+97%，其中Q4单季度板块收入497亿元，同比+23%；归母净利润30.5亿元，同比+264%，四季度在低 券 基数效应下板块业绩改善明显。纺织制造板块2023年收入约1189亿元，同比微降0.29%，利润84亿元，同比增6.3%，表现 研 较为平稳。其中Q4 ...

公 司 研 究 浪潮信息（000977.SZ）专题二：软 2024年5月28日 推荐/维持 硬一体化销售体系成型，元脑生态 东 浪潮信息 公司报告 兴 为长期发展筑建护城河 证 券 股 份 本篇专题从浪潮信息 AI 服务器销售渠道角度，解析浪潮信息在服务器渠道端 公司简介： 有 的建设进展。我们认为，浪潮信息持续扩展销售渠道，升级销售模式。公司当 浪潮信息是全球领先的 IT 基础架构产品、 限 前软硬件一体化渠道生态为 AI 服务器相关业务保驾护航，是公司商业模式最 方案及服务提供商，业务覆盖计算、存储、 网络三大关键领域，提供云计算、大数据、 公 大的护城河。 人工智能、边缘计算等在内的全方位数字化 司 作为国内头部服务器品牌厂商，公司产品销售渠道成熟稳定。浪潮信息的销售 解决方案。 证 资料来源：公司公告 体系遵循2B硬件产品渠道惯例，建立价值销售渠道，销售模式分为直销、分 券 销两种。其中直销模式主要针对行业NA客户；分销渠道主要是公司在各省区 未来3-6个月重大事项提示： 研 的分销商和代理商，负责其所在省区内的销售业务。 究 报 建设增值渠道，构建软硬一体化 2B 销售体系。公司传统的直销+代理分销 ...

Summary of Conference Call for Zhejiang Rongtai Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Rongtai - **Industry**: Mica products, primarily for applications in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, small appliances, and electrical cables Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Dynamics - **Mica Product Innovation**: The company has developed a three-dimensional (3D) mica product through a unique adhesive pressing integrated molding process, allowing for broader applications in the EV sector, particularly in battery modules and thermal protection components [1] - **Market Growth**: The global mica market was valued at 18 billion in 2022, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2023 to 2027, potentially reaching 41.8 billion by 2027 [8] - **Application Segmentation**: The mica market can be divided into three main categories: fire-resistant insulation materials, pearlescent materials, and others, with fire-resistant materials accounting for approximately 80% of the market share [9] Financial Performance - **Revenue Contribution**: From 2021 to 2023, the revenue contribution from the EV sector increased from 50% to 72%, while small appliances saw a decline from 23% to 14% [4] - **Revenue Growth**: The company achieved revenues of 5.37 billion, 8 billion, and a CAGR of 15% from 2021 to 2023 [5] - **Profit Margins**: The gross profit from the EV business accounted for 88% of total gross profit, with net profit margins improving from 9% in 2020 to 21% in 2023 [6] Competitive Advantages - **Patent Portfolio**: The company holds 33 invention patents and 93 utility model patents, indicating a strong focus on innovation [2] - **Market Position**: In 2022, the company held a 27% market share in the EV mica segment, the highest in the industry, and a 20% share in traditional applications [22] - **Customer Base**: The company collaborates closely with major clients like Tesla, Volvo, and CATL, ensuring timely payments and enhancing production standards [22] Future Outlook - **Revenue Projections**: Expected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.264 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.235 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 257 million, 340 million, and 430 million [26] - **Risks**: Potential risks include lower-than-expected downstream demand, increased competition, and currency fluctuations [26] Industry Trends - **Technological Advancements**: The promotion of modular-free technology is expected to increase the demand for thermal insulation materials, as it leads to higher heat generation in batteries [11] - **Safety Standards**: The gradual improvement of safety standards in the EV sector is likely to increase the adoption of mica insulation products across more vehicle models [15] Product Development - **3D Mica Products**: The company is one of the few capable of mass-producing 3D mica structures, which enhance mechanical strength and thermal insulation performance compared to traditional 2D products [24] - **Cost Efficiency**: The unit cost of mica products is decreasing due to large-scale production, making them more competitive in the market [20] Conclusion - **Investment Potential**: The combination of a growing market, strong financial performance, competitive advantages, and innovative product development positions the company favorably for continued growth in the EV sector and beyond [26]

行 业 研 究 传媒互联网&通信行业：分众传媒营 2024年5月27日 看好/维持 销垂类大模型部署完成，美团全国 东 传媒 行业报告 兴 已建 22 条无人机航线 证 券 股 份 周观点： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 有 浪潮信息库存处于高点。采购是公司生产服务器的实质性开始。2013-2015年， 限 受益于国产替代、云计算以及自研高端服务器，公司服务器制造生产业务进入 公 行业基本资料 占比% 一轮高速增长期，收入迎来快速增长。因此公司采购金额与roe均处于高位水 司 平，两者走势较为吻合；2020-2021年，公司roe再次回归10%以上水平，同 股票家数 191 4.15% 证 样公司采购金额均保持20%以上增长，两者走势较为吻合。2023年，公司采 行业市值(亿元) 14996.21 1.76% 券 购金额增速达到17%，可以看到公司加大原材料采购，预计2024年公司经营 流通市值(亿元) 12942.48 1.89% 研 效益有望向上。美元应付账款显示当前公司处于原材料库存高点。采购CPU & 究 GPU 等组件主要来自海外公司，因此公司以美元计的应付账款占比整体应付 行业平均市盈率 42.83 ...

行 业 研 究 传媒互联网&通信行业：分众传媒营 2024年5月27日 看好/维持 销垂类大模型部署完成，美团全国 东 传媒 行业报告 兴 已建 22 条无人机航线 证 券 股 份 周观点： 未来3-6个月行业大事： 有 浪潮信息库存处于高点。采购是公司生产服务器的实质性开始。2013-2015年， 限 受益于国产替代、云计算以及自研高端服务器，公司服务器制造生产业务进入 公 行业基本资料 占比% 一轮高速增长期，收入迎来快速增长。因此公司采购金额与roe均处于高位水 司 平，两者走势较为吻合；2020-2021年，公司roe再次回归10%以上水平，同 股票家数 191 4.15% 证 样公司采购金额均保持20%以上增长，两者走势较为吻合。2023年，公司采 行业市值(亿元) 14996.21 1.76% 券 购金额增速达到17%，可以看到公司加大原材料采购，预计2024年公司经营 流通市值(亿元) 12942.48 1.89% 研 效益有望向上。美元应付账款显示当前公司处于原材料库存高点。采购CPU & 究 GPU 等组件主要来自海外公司，因此公司以美元计的应付账款占比整体应付 行业平均市盈率 42.83 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that companies that enhance their services tend to have more stable profits and better resilience against profit fluctuations during price wars, indicating a shift from a low-price focus to a dual emphasis on price and service in the industry [3][19] - The rapid growth of low-priced e-commerce parcels has created a critical decision window for companies, leading to significant differentiation in strategies among major players, with some opting for aggressive pricing while others focus on maintaining profitability [6][7] - The report notes that the intensity of the current price war is high, with companies like Yunda and Shentong seeing their per-package revenue drop to around 2 yuan, similar to levels during the most intense price wars in 2020-2021 [8][27] Group 2 - The report indicates that the first quarter saw a significant increase in package volume, driven by the growth of new e-commerce platforms, although this also led to a decline in per-package revenue [7][19] - It is suggested that the price war's intensity may ease in the second half of the year due to capacity constraints and the need to support franchisees, which could lead to a more stable revenue environment for companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong [27][19] - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders Zhongtong and Yuantong, as they have shown more stable revenue streams compared to competitors heavily engaged in price wars [27][19]