Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on the European Oils sector despite raising the Brent oil price assumption due to higher geopolitical risk premium [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights differentiated growth stories, resilient cash returns, and asset monetization optionality as key themes for the sector [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of strong balance sheets and value crystallization through disposals, with specific companies like Saudi Aramco, Equinor, Shell, and Galp noted for their financial strength [3][6]. - The report identifies potential divestment opportunities among EU Big Oils, particularly for Repsol, BP, and ENI, which could significantly impact their equity value [69][70]. Summary by Sections Commodity Price Outlook - Brent oil prices dipped to the low $60s/bbl but recovered to approximately $75/bbl, while EU gas prices saw a significant drop quarter-over-quarter [2][30]. - The report adjusts the Brent price assumption for 2H25 to $65/bbl and maintains a negative outlook on oil despite a higher long-term price forecast [31][39]. Financial Performance and Cash Returns - The sector is expected to see a 20% quarter-over-quarter decrease in operating cash flow (OCF) due to higher seasonal tax payments, with average gearing projected to increase modestly [3][64]. - EU Big Oils are projected to offer a total cash return to shareholders of 11.7% in 2025, combining a 5.4% dividend yield and 6.3% from buybacks [6][26]. Growth and Capital Expenditure - Companies like Galp and Shell are highlighted for their differentiated cash flow growth and capital expenditure flexibility, with Galp expected to see over 20% production growth from the Bacalhau start-up in 2025 [7][48]. - TotalEnergies is forecasted to have the strongest production growth among the Big Oils, exceeding 3% in 2025, while Repsol and Shell also show promising growth profiles [49][55]. Divestment Strategies - Major EU Big Oils are adopting diverse divestment strategies to streamline portfolios, focusing on high-return projects [69]. - BP is noted for its significant divestment pipeline, targeting $20 billion in disposals by 2027, while Repsol has already announced substantial asset rotations in renewables [73][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) and raises the 12-month price target to US$21.00 from a previous US$15.50, indicating an upside potential of 15.4% [1][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a constructive outlook on TME's faster Super VIP (SVIP) penetration and the long-term potential of its non-subscription business, particularly in live events and artist sponsorships [1][15]. - TME's stock has shown significant growth, rallying 69% year-to-date compared to HSTech's 18% [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth visibility and pricing power, particularly in the context of ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth driven by SVIP membership [1][15]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth Projections - TME's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 28,401 million in 2024 to RMB 38,385 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.4% [3][13]. - Non-subscription revenue is expected to outpace subscription revenue in the long run, currently accounting for 30% of total music revenue, with significant growth anticipated in live events and artist agency business [24][30]. ARPU and SVIP Penetration - The report raises ARPU estimates due to faster SVIP penetration, which is expected to increase from low-teen percentages to 19% by 2027, driven by enhanced SVIP privileges [16][18]. - Monthly ARPU for SVIP is forecasted to reach RMB 19.5 by 2025, reflecting a strong upward trend [20][21]. M&A and Strategic Initiatives - TME's recent strategic investments, including a 10% stake in SM Entertainment and a full acquisition of Ximalaya, are aimed at enhancing content offerings and expanding its footprint across the music industry value chain [7][30]. - The report notes that TME's strategy includes diversifying revenue streams through artist merchandising and live events, which aligns with its long-term vision [30][29]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts TME's valuation methodology to a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, reflecting the value of its minority stakes in companies like Spotify and Universal Music [15][33]. - The new price target implies a 22X P/E for 2026, justified by TME's strong growth visibility compared to peers in the Chinese internet sector [15][33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industrial automation sector, particularly in the context of strong demand from the battery terminal market and equipment upgrades in various industries [1][3]. Core Insights - The production of industrial robots in China saw a year-on-year increase of 36% in May, although there was a month-on-month decline of 3% [3]. - The total demand for process automation in the next two years is projected to reach between RMB 10 billion to 20 billion, driven by equipment upgrades in coal chemical, power, nuclear power, and metallurgy sectors [1]. - The order trends for industrial automation companies showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing order growth while others faced deterioration [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Robot Production - In May, industrial robot production increased by 36% year-on-year, but the month-on-month growth was down by 3%, contrasting with a historical average seasonal growth of 11% [3][33]. Equipment Exports - The export growth rate for major equipment has slowed, with injection molding machine exports growing by 25% in value and 28% in volume year-on-year in April, down from 45% in both metrics in March [3][26]. Order Trends - Among the 32 companies covered, 3 reported improved order trends in May, while 5 experienced a decline. Notably, Yiheda's orders grew due to strong demand from the lithium battery sector, despite a decline in consumer electronics [3][7]. Process Automation Market - The demand for process automation is expected to be supported by equipment upgrades starting in May, with a total projected demand of RMB 10 billion to 20 billion over the next two years [1][3]. Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for China was reported at 49.5 in May, indicating a slight improvement from 49.0 in April, while the PPI was down by 3.3% year-on-year [38][40].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to CFME, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's performance in the near term [1][9][16]. Core Insights - CFME is expected to see a revenue growth of 22% year-over-year and 27% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reaching Rmb308 million, driven by an upgrade in product mix towards mid-to-high-end PCB equipment [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding into global markets, including plans for a new subsidiary and plant in Thailand, which aims to capitalize on the growing PCB demand influenced by AI trends and geopolitical uncertainties [2][4]. - The earnings revision reflects an upward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of Rmb1,761 million in 2025, Rmb2,242 million in 2026, and Rmb2,754 million in 2027, representing increases of 9%, 12%, and 21% respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - The report projects gross profit margins to remain strong, with gross margins of 40.0% in 2025, 39.6% in 2026, and 38.7% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3][4]. - Net income is expected to rise to Rmb328 million in 2025, Rmb400 million in 2026, and Rmb460 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10%, 16%, and 23% respectively [3][4]. - The operating income is forecasted to increase to Rmb381 million in 2025, Rmb469 million in 2026, and Rmb527 million in 2027, with corresponding operating margins of 21.7%, 20.9%, and 19.1% [3][4]. Valuation - The target price for CFME is set at Rmb66.7, based on a discounted P/E methodology using a 21x P/E on the 2027E EPS, discounted back to 2026E at a 10% cost of equity [9][14][16]. - The report indicates a downside potential of 8% from the current price of Rmb72.50, reinforcing the "Sell" rating [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Chagee Holdings Ltd, with an industry view of "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - Chagee's unit GMV in China showed sequential improvement in May compared to April, driven by healthy new SKU sales and increasing delivery orders, although food aggregator subsidies have temporarily disrupted product pricing [2] - Management emphasized two strategic focuses: sustainable growth in China to enhance the longevity of the 'Chagee' brand and overseas expansion [7] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing while closely monitoring the impact of food aggregator subsidies on effective prices [7] Summary by Sections Store Units - Initial trial results indicate that approximately 60-70% of the cup mix at Chagee Modern Tea consists of pure tea products [3] Growth Targets - Chagee targets around 10,000 stores in China over the long run, with approximately 1,000 net unit additions per year over the next 2-3 years, focusing on high-tier cities and prime locations [8] Financial Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the projected revenue is RMB 15,115 million, with an EBITDA of RMB 3,415 million and an EPS of RMB 15.17 [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for XDLK (688582.SS) as it is categorized as "Not Covered" [1]. Core Insights - XDLK has experienced significant revenue growth of 292% year-over-year in Q1 2025, attributed to new MEMS gyroscope orders, with management expressing optimism about future visibility due to increasing client adoption [1][8]. - The company is expanding its MEMS accelerometer product from single chip single axis to dual/triple axis configurations to enhance product integrity and meet client demands [1][8]. - XDLK is targeting new markets such as autonomous driving, eVTOL, and robotics, in addition to its existing industrial and energy sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Company Profile - XDLK is a local supplier of MEMS IMU, offering products that include a MEMS chipset and an ASIC chipset for high-accuracy navigation, monitoring, and stabilization at relatively low costs [3]. Client Penetration and Product Upgrade - The company has secured new MEMS gyroscope orders valued at RMB 270 million, indicating a growing adoption of its products by clients [5]. - XDLK's Q1 2025 revenue reached RMB 87 million, with net income turning positive, driven by new orders and a positive outlook on order visibility [8]. Technology Advantages - XDLK's MEMS IMU products face high barriers to entry, with a client partnership development cycle of 6-12 months, emphasizing the importance of high accuracy, integrity, small size, adaptability, and low cost in client decision-making [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but discusses various price scenarios and geopolitical risks that could impact investment decisions [4]. Core Insights - The Brent oil price closed at $66.9 per barrel on June 10, with expectations of a decline to around $60 per barrel in Q4 if no supply disruptions occur [2][4]. - A geopolitical risk premium of approximately $10 per barrel is estimated, with potential spikes in Brent prices above $90 under lower supply scenarios from Iran [4]. - Oil exports from Iran remain uninterrupted, while a significant decline of 45% (or 3.3 million barrels per day) in oil flows through the Bab-El-Mandeb Strait is projected by 2025 compared to 2023 [4][16]. - The probability of US military action against Iran is estimated at 65% by July, while the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025 stands at 50% [21][22]. - Global spare capacity is estimated to be around 4-5% of global demand, which could serve as a buffer against disruptions from Iran [4][32]. Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights a close link between oil prices and the probability of US military action against Iran, indicating that market sentiment is currently leaning towards higher prices in the short term [6][19]. - The futures curve and implied volatility suggest that oil markets anticipate much higher prices in the coming months, while long-term outlooks remain stable [4][26][29]. Oil Flows and Shipping Costs - Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain uninterrupted, but the report notes vulnerabilities in shipping routes due to potential attacks from Iran-controlled Houthis [4][13]. - Increased risks have led to a rise in oil shipping costs, particularly for Middle Eastern routes [4][44]. Refined Product Prices - Diesel margins in Europe have increased due to downside risks to exports from the Middle East, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions on refined product pricing [4][43].

18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...

15 June 2025 | 1:53PM HKT Potential opportunities on other technology platforms: Referring to technology platform-based collaborations between China pharma / biotech and MNCs (see summary in Exhibit 1), the upfront payment of US$110mn for the announced AZ/CSPC collaboration is consistent with the historical range of US$10mn to below US$200mn, while the total deal size of US$5.3bn was the highest since 2023. With the current collaboration announced to date, we see growing recognition from MNCs for CSPC's tec ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The current market has approximately $15 billion of gamma, with a high concentration on strikes slightly below the current market level, indicating a potential shift post month-end due to rolling of large quarterly positions and re-striking of overwriting products [1][2] - The upcoming options expiration on June 20 is projected to be the largest June expiration on record, with over $5.9 trillion of notional options exposure, including $4.0 trillion of SPX options and $925 billion of single stock options [4][10] - The liquidity in the S&P E-mini market is moderate, with a top-of-book depth of $7.1 million, slightly below the year-to-date average [7] - Pension funds are expected to sell approximately $20 billion of US equities at quarter-end, but this may be offset by an estimated $10 billion of buying if the SPX trades above 5905 on the last day of the month [9][10] - A significant number of companies (approximately 40%) are currently in a blackout period for buybacks, which is expected to end around July 25 [12] - Systematic strategies currently hold $126 billion in US equities, with a projected small sell-off of $310 million in a flat market scenario, but potential buying demand of $790 million over the next week [14][15] - Historically, the second half of June has shown positive returns for the S&P, averaging 45 basis points from June 17 to July 1 [17] - The AI-led rally has resulted in a divergence in stock performance, with AI winners reaching new highs while companies perceived to be at risk from AI have declined [19] - There is increased demand for tail options, particularly in the QQQ market, indicating a preference for hedging strategies amid market volatility [21][22] - The vega of the VIX ETN has increased significantly, with the UVIX ETF's assets under management growing more than fivefold in recent months, highlighting the product's role in the VIX futures market [27][28]