[Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行资负跟踪 20240908 存单超季节性融入，关注降准可能性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本期：2024/9/2~9/8，上期：2024/8/26~9/1，下期：2024/9/9~9/15。 ⚫ 央行动态：据 Wind 数据（下同），本期央行公开市场共开展 2,102 亿元 7 天逆回购操作，利率 1.70%，逆回购到期 14,018 亿元，净回笼 11,916 亿元。下期央行公开市场将有 2,102 亿元逆回购到期。本期央行逆回购 余额大幅回落，当前余额处于历史同期中游，DR007 围绕 1.7%波动， 显示银行间流动性相对宽松，逆回购需求不强。下期政府债缴款力度再 起，且节后即面临 9 月缴税截止日和 5910 亿元 MLF 到期置换压力，预 计下期资金面压力加剧，逆回购余额回升。 ⚫ 政府债融资：本期政府债净缴款-1,183.76 亿元，预计下期净缴款约 4,649.27 亿元，较本期回升。9 月财政力度再起，关注对资金面扰动。 ⚫ 资金利率：本期 DR007 窄 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 玻璃玻纤行业 2024 年中报总结 Q2 景气结构性分化，下半年关注供给端调整 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 玻璃：24H1 浮法、光伏玻璃景气回温，下半年关注供给压力去化；药 用玻璃稳健成长。（1）浮法玻璃：上半年景气前高后低，下半年供需仍 存压，重点关注 Q4 减产进度。24H1 板块营收（采用上市公司加总计 算，下同）同比+1.8%，扣非净利润同比+19.0%；Q1 营收同比+6.3%， 扣非净利润同比+154.7%；Q2 营收同比+1.3%，扣非净利润同比 -25.8%。（2）光伏玻璃：24Q2 盈利环比回暖，Q3 减产加速静待需求 恢复。24H1 营收同比+9.1%，扣非净利润同比+43.7%，；Q1 营收同比 +6.4%，扣非净利润同比+43.5%；Q2 营收同比+10.1%，扣非净利润 同比+7.6%。（3）药用玻璃：政策驱动稳健成长，24Q2 盈利环比继续 改善，龙头盈利持续领先。药用玻璃板块 24Q1-24Q2 单季度营收分别 同比+5.6%/ +11.1%，归母净利润同比分别+15.0 ...

[Table_Title] 批零社服行业 2024 年中报总结 板块分化，关注边际改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 美妆：展望 2024 下半年，我们推荐三个主线：（1）品牌势能向上、业 绩确定性较高的美妆品牌，我们推荐珀莱雅、巨子生物、丸美股份； （2）质价比方向，我们推荐润本股份、上美股份；（3）估值底部，等 待拐点品牌，我们建议关注贝泰妮、上海家化、华熙生物。 黄金珠宝：黄金产品避险、保值增值属性得到进一步强化，投资类产品 关注度将伴随金价高升；黄金类饰品年轻化基本完成，"悦己消费"被 广泛接纳和传播；龙头持续发力渠道拓展与店效提升，建议持续关注门 店数量净增与同店销售数据等指标。推荐周大生、老凤祥。 跨境电商：能及时调整定价政策、最大化利用亚马逊政策利好的公司有 望改善盈利能力，积极布局新渠道，抓住渠道红利沉淀品牌势能的跨境 电商有望实现高增长，建议关注品牌力较强的安克创新、积极布局新 渠道的华凯易佰、赛维时代，受益外贸高景气的小商品城、焦点科技。 线下零售：商超和百货业态近年降本增效，精细化运营提振毛利率水 平，随着直播系电商格局基本形成，货架电商增速趋稳，线下零售持续 创新业态、丰 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|家用电器 2024 年 9 月 9 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 家用电器行业 行情复盘专题：新一轮周期演绎中，白电阶段性领跑 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|------------------------------| | | | | | | [Tabl 分析师： | 曾婵 | 分析师： | 陈尧 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260517050002 | | SAC 执证号： S0260524010003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNV293 0755-82771936 021-38003786 | | | | | | | | | | zengchan@gf.com.cn | | shchenyao@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈尧并非香港证券及期货事务监 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 72.28 CNY and a reasonable value of 79.53 CNY per share [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.9 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 0.65 billion CNY, up 15.00% year-on-year, confirming a performance turning point in Q2 2024 [3][11]. - The rapid growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) business is highlighted, with the NEV fuse revenue reaching 3.65 billion CNY, a 45.38% increase year-on-year. However, the wind and solar storage business faced challenges, with revenue of 1.66 billion CNY, down 1.88% year-on-year [11][13]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, having entered the supply chains of major clients like Tesla and Daimler, with overseas revenue of 0.45 billion CNY, a 16.08% increase year-on-year, accounting for 7.63% of total revenue [13][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 38.37% in H1 2024, down 2.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 11.01%, down 0.48 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2024, the gross margin improved to 38.64%, up 0.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - The company expects to maintain high growth for the full year, with projected revenues of 13.8 billion CNY, 18.3 billion CNY, and 23.2 billion CNY for 2024 to 2026, and net profits of 2.1 billion CNY, 3.4 billion CNY, and 4.5 billion CNY respectively [15][21]. Business Segments - The NEV fuse segment is performing strongly, while the wind and solar storage segment is under pressure due to market conditions. The company is also focusing on expanding its product offerings in the energy storage market [11][14]. - The company is actively investing in R&D to enhance its competitive edge, with a R&D expense ratio of 10.69% in H1 2024, down 0.44 percentage points year-on-year [8][9]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the fuse market, benefiting from the increasing penetration of NEVs globally. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on a projected PE of 25 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of 79.53 CNY per share [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.76 CNY per share based on a 40x PE ratio for 2024 [3][15]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with significant revenue growth attributed to the consolidation of Jiangnan Keyou. For H1 2024, revenue reached 169 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 63.48%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 14 million CNY, up 35.21% year-on-year [6][11]. - The rapid increase in operating expenses during the business expansion phase has impacted short-term profits. Sales, management, and R&D expenses grew by 80.26%, 38.02%, and 43.98% respectively in H1 2024 [6][12]. - The company continues to lead in innovative applications of cryptographic technology in emerging fields, having fully implemented mainstream post-quantum cryptographic algorithms [6][11]. - The establishment of the Hong Kong subsidiary has led to breakthroughs in overseas business, contributing to new revenue streams [6][11]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 169 million CNY, with a net profit of 14 million CNY. In Q2 2024, revenue was 120 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 78.06% [6][11]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2024 was 76.83%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points compared to H1 2023 [8]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 509 million CNY, 671 million CNY, and 827 million CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.91%, 31.86%, and 23.17% [12][11]. Business Segment Performance - Revenue from the cryptographic machine segment reached 70.29 million CNY, up 69.45% year-on-year, while the cryptographic system segment generated 38.99 million CNY, a 20.94% increase [7]. - The cryptographic services and other segment saw a remarkable growth of 442.35%, reaching 32.92 million CNY, driven by increasing demand for cryptographic services [11][12]. - The cryptographic chip segment experienced a decline, with revenue dropping 73.48% to 0.15 million CNY [7]. Expense Analysis - The company’s sales expenses for H1 2024 were 55.55 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80.26%, primarily due to increased sales management capabilities and the consolidation of Jiangnan Keyou [8][12]. - Management expenses rose to 21.84 million CNY, up 38.02% year-on-year, while R&D expenses reached 52.95 million CNY, a 43.98% increase [8][12]. Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The net cash flow from operating activities for H1 2024 was -22.04 million CNY, reflecting a 22.22% year-on-year improvement [8][9]. - The company’s projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.72 CNY, 1.25 CNY, and 1.75 CNY respectively [11][12]. Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable value of 28.76 CNY per share based on a 40x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting the company's strong growth potential and recent international market expansion [15][11].

[Table_Title] 新坐标（603040.SH） 24 年中报点评：固本拓新 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司 24Q2 收入和业绩创单季度历史新高，海外营收增速亮眼。公司 2024 年上半年实现营业收入 3.28 亿元，同比+20.37%；扣非前/后归 母净利润分别为 1.11/1.01 亿元，同比分别+18.76%/+13.75%。其中 24Q2 实现营业收入 1.86 亿元，同环比分别+32.33%/+31.30%，扣非 前/后归母净利润为分别 0.63/0.58 亿元，同比分别+37.15%/+27.99%。 24Q2 公司收入和归母净利润均创 17 年上市以来单季度新高，主要系 公司海外子公司产能爬坡顺利和冷锻精制线材加工业务加速放量。 ⚫ 子公司产能爬坡顺利带动公司 Q2 毛利率环比上升。公司 24H1 毛利 率为 52.51%，同比-4.31pct；净利率为 34.93%，同比+0.43pct。其中 24Q2 毛利率为 53.28%，同环比分别为-1.03/+1.77pct，净利率为 34.98%，同环比分别为+1.96/+0.12pct。 ⚫ 公司积极拓展新产品，新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of BYD, with a target price of RMB 327 for A-shares and HKD 306.76 for H-shares [1][2] Core Views - BYD's revenue for H1 2024 reached RMB 301.127 billion, a YoY increase of 15.76%, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 24.44% to RMB 13.631 billion [1] - In Q2 2024, BYD's revenue was RMB 176.182 billion, up 25.89% YoY and 41.01% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged 32.8% YoY and 98.36% QoQ to RMB 9.062 billion [1] - BYD's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in H1 2024 reached 1.613 million units, a YoY increase of 28.46%, driven by the launch of the Honor Edition models and the dual-drive strategy of Dynasty and Ocean series [1] - The company's global expansion is accelerating, with NEVs entering 77 countries and regions, including Brazil, Germany, Japan, and Thailand [1] - BYD's overseas retail sales are expected to exceed 650,000 units by 2026, supported by local production facilities in Thailand, Brazil, and Uzbekistan [1] Business Performance and Strategy - BYD's gross profit margin in H1 2024 was 20.01%, up 1.69 percentage points YoY, while the net profit margin increased by 0.29 percentage points to 4.69% [8] - The company's Q2 2024 gross profit margin was 18.69%, down 3.19 percentage points QoQ, but the net profit margin rose to 5.3%, up 1.48 percentage points QoQ [8] - BYD's NEV sales in Q2 2024 reached 988,000 units, a YoY increase of 40.44%, with export sales accounting for 105,500 units [11] - The company's average revenue per vehicle in Q2 2024 was RMB 136,000, down RMB 20,000 YoY and RMB 5,000 QoQ, primarily due to the launch of lower-priced Honor Edition models [11] - BYD's DM 5.0 technology, with a thermal efficiency of 46.06% and a fuel consumption of 2.6L per 100km, is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the European market [13][14] Global Expansion and Market Outlook - BYD is prioritizing emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East, with local production facilities expected to contribute to overseas growth [1][15] - The company's overseas production capacity is projected to reach 950,000 units by 2027, with factories in Thailand, Brazil, and Uzbekistan leading the expansion [15] - BYD's high pricing strategy in overseas markets, such as Germany, Thailand, and Japan, is expected to offset tariffs and shipping costs, contributing to higher profit margins [16][17] - The company's overseas retail sales are forecasted to account for 11% of total sales by 2026, reaching over 650,000 units [15] Financial Projections - BYD's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 38.1 billion, RMB 49.2 billion, and RMB 54.8 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The company's automotive sales are projected to grow to 3.73 million, 4.97 million, and 6.12 million units in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [18] - BYD's automotive business revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 582.9 billion, RMB 783.1 billion, and RMB 943.6 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [18] - The company's secondary rechargeable battery business is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins stabilizing at 14-15% [19]

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 通信行业 光博会开幕在即，持续关注光通信产业链 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：第 25 届中国国际光电博览会（CIOE 中国光博会）将于 9 月 11—13 日在深圳国际会展中心（宝安）开幕。 1.6T 产品即将亮相光博会，产业链准备成熟。在本次展会上，多家厂 商将展示 1.6T 光模块相关产品。中际旭创将进行 1.6T OSFP 2XDR4 的 live demo 演示，华工正源也将推出全新 1.6T OSFP DR8 光模块 （DSP 和 LPO），新产品搭载自研单波 200G 硅光芯片；其中 DSP 模 块产品基于业界今年推出最先进的电口 200Gbps PAM-4 DSP，设计 兼容薄膜铌酸锂调制器和量子点激光器方案。光迅科技也将发布全新 一代 1.6T 高端模块产品--1.6T OSFP224 DR8，电接口速率全面提升， 以满足下一代 200G SerDes 应用场景。根据我们今年在 2024 OFC 上 的微观层面观察，1.6T 光模块对应的单通道 200G EML 以及 DSP 都 已经基本达到量产状态，1.6T ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The military industry performance has been temporarily under pressure due to various factors, but demand is expected to improve [1] - In H1 2024, the military industry reported a revenue of 295.72 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.54 billion CNY, down 21.77% year-on-year [6][10] - The gross profit margin for H1 2024 was 19.58%, a slight decrease of 1.27 percentage points compared to the previous year, while the expense ratio increased by 0.81 percentage points to 12.71% [11][45] - The inventory turnover days and accounts receivable turnover days have slightly decreased compared to H1 2023, indicating a potential improvement in operational efficiency [19][33] Summary by Sections 1. H1 2024: Short-term Performance Under Pressure, Expected Improvement with Order Release - The military industry has experienced a temporary decline in performance, with revenue and net profit growth rates decreasing [6][45] - The gross profit margin has slightly decreased, and the expense ratio has increased, indicating a need for improvement in efficiency [11][12] - The operational capacity has shown signs of pressure, but cash quality has improved [19][33] 2. Sector Analysis: Shipbuilding Sector Leads Performance - The shipbuilding sector has shown outstanding revenue and net profit growth, with a revenue increase of 22.27% in H1 2024 [22][25] - The aerospace sector achieved a gross profit margin that reached a five-year high, while other sectors experienced declines in net profit [28][29] 3. Holdings Analysis: Defense Sector Heavyweight Holdings - As of Q2 2024, the defense sector's heavy holdings accounted for 3.44% of active funds, with a market value of 58.864 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase from Q1 2024 [37][38] - The top five heavy holdings included China Shipbuilding, AVIC Optical, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Aero Engine Corporation of China, and Aerospace Electric [38][46] 4. Key Stocks and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on undervalued strategies and emphasizes the recovery of military beta, with specific stocks highlighted for potential investment [46]