[Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 2024 年中报总结 出口继续贡献收入和盈利弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 乘用车：24 年 H1 出口继续为板块营收和利润增长贡献超额弹性。根 据公司财报，乘用车样本公司 24 年 H1 整体/国内/海外营收同比分别 +5.8/+1.6/+28.4%，毛利润同比分别+24.6/+8.1/+144.5%。根据中汽 协 ， 24 年 H1 乘 用 车 批 发 / 国 内 交 强 险 / 出 口 销 量 同 比 分 别 +6.3/+4.1/+31.4%，销量增速和收入增速基本吻合。24 年 H1 乘用车 海外营收/毛利润占比分别提升至 19.1/23.8%，同比分别+3.4/11.7pct。 乘用车样本公司 24 年 H1 毛利润增速高于营收增速，主要是由于海外 毛利率的提升，24 年 H1 海外毛利率提升至 20.0%，同比+9.5pct。 ⚫ 商用车：出口销量增长支撑下的重卡产业链和客车板块业绩表现不错。 24Q2 重卡产业链样本公司实现营收 940.4 亿元， ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|非银金融 [Table_Contacts] 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 头部券商并购事件落地，关注板块底部配置机遇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 证券：证监会从严整治政商"旋转门"、两大头部券商合并，助推行 业估值修复。据 wind，本周沪深两市成交额日均 0.59 万亿元（环比 +10%），沪深两融余额 13912 亿元（环比-0.1%）。9 月 5 日，证监 会公布《证监会系统离职人员入股拟上市企业监管规定（试行）》， 相比之前延长了入股禁止期、扩大了核查人员的范围并对核查的项目 进行了进一步明确，旨在通过加强监管增强资本市场的合规性和稳定 性、促进市场参与者的责任意识和自律性以及提升投资者信心。同日， 人民银行货币政策司司长邹澜在新闻发布会上表示，当前平均法定存 款准备金率大约 7%，还有一定下降空间。 9 月 5 日晚，国泰君安、 海通证券发布公告因吸收合并停牌，预计停牌时间不超过 25 个交易 日。本次国泰君安吸收合并海通证券，开启了头部券商整合的大幕。 从 2024 年二季度末数据看，国泰君安与海通证券合并后，总 ...

[Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 基本金属：静待美联储降息落地，预计基本金属价格震荡回升。预计美 联储降息方向不变，预防式降息支撑外需，但需求预期持续波动，外需 改善空间也承压，以旧换新政策支撑内需，供给端偏紧，预计基本金属 价格震荡回升。建议关注：洛阳钼业（A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中 国铝业（A+H）、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 钢铁：供需双弱，钢价及成本下跌，盈利率弱修复，继续关注供给约 束。供给端，高炉开工环比下滑，钢厂盈利率弱修复，铁水供给约束明 显。需求端，关注淡季结束后需求复苏。成本端，预计低盈利率继续压 制原料采购需求。价利方面，供需格局短期弱化，购销差价预期偏弱， 供给约束预期提升，预计短期钢价震荡为主。建议关注：宝钢股份、华 菱钢铁、久立特材、抚顺特钢等。 贵金属：美联储释放谨慎降息信号，金价短期震荡。据 Wind，美国 8 月失业率为 4.2%，符合预期；8 月非农和 ADP 新增人数均低于预期， 美国就业压力持续显露。而本周美联储理事沃勒等讲话称"美国经济和 就业市场降温的迹象应该被解读为弱化，而不是恶化""现阶段仍支持 谨慎降 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 [本报告联系人： Table_C ontacter] 2024 年 9 月 8 日 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|------------------------------|----------|------------------------------------------------| | [Table_Title] \n[Tabl 分析师： | 食品饮料中外复盘系列 \n符蓉 | 分析师： | 1990-2013 \n廖承帅 | 分析师： | 年日本必需消费品的量价逻辑 \n高鸿 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号： S0260524070009 | | SAC 执证号： S ...

[Table_Contacts] Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------| | [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 证券研究报告 \n买入 | | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 多家游戏公司发布回购增持进展，阶跃星辰发布图像生成大模型 | 报告日期 | 2024-09-08 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周（9月2日-9月6日）中信传媒板块下降0.72%，跑赢上证综指1.97 个百分点。本周（9月2日-9月6日）A股传媒板块行情小幅回调。细分 来看，出版板块行情有所回升，主要由于中报披露过后，业绩落地验 证基本面；本周暑期档票房数据陆续公布，整体表现不及预期，影视 板块有所回落。 ⚫ 互联网：互联网公司下半年业绩展望一定程度受消费疲弱和宏观拖 累，部分业态收入 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating for the engineering machinery sector is **Buy** [1] Core Views - The engineering machinery industry is transitioning from the left side to the right side of the cycle, with a slow recovery slope [1] - Domestic excavator sales turned positive in March 2024, with a cumulative increase of about 40% in the sector, but the recovery slope remains slow [1] - Revenue growth is weak, but companies have shown strong control over expenses, cash flow, and risk exposure, leading to positive profit growth despite significant foreign exchange impacts [1] - Domestic excavators and overseas non-excavator products performed well, with market share gains in both domestic and international markets [1] - Profit margins improved due to stable gross margins, reduced expenses, and effective hedging against foreign exchange pressures [1] - Operating quality improved with reduced risk exposure and optimized cash flow [1] Revenue Analysis - **Overall Revenue**: In Q2 2024, the combined revenue of the top 5 domestic manufacturers was 71 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, indicating weak demand recovery [7] - **Product Breakdown**: - Domestic sales growth: Excavators (+5%) > Loaders (-3%) > Cranes (-19%) > Aerial Work Platforms (-34%) > Tower Cranes (-63%) [8] - Export growth: Aerial Work Platforms (+23%) > Loaders (+8%) > Cranes (+7%) > Tower Cranes (0%) > Excavators (-14%) [8] - **Regional Breakdown**: - Domestic demand is weak but improving, with excavators leading the recovery [14] - Overseas markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are performing well, with local companies gaining market share [14] Profit Analysis - **Gross Margin**: The average gross margin of the top 5 domestic manufacturers in Q2 2024 was 24%, slightly increasing by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [22] - **Net Margin**: The average net margin improved to 8%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting healthier balance sheets [22] - **Expense Control**: Sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased, with R&D expenses showing the most significant reduction [24] - **Foreign Exchange Impact**: Despite significant foreign exchange losses, companies used hedging and other methods to mitigate the impact [25] Operating Quality - **Risk Exposure**: The total risk exposure of the top 5 domestic manufacturers decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a more significant reduction in off-balance-sheet exposure [30] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of 7.5 billion CNY in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 238% [34] - **Inventory Management**: Inventory turnover improved, with inventory days decreasing by 8 days year-on-year [34] Investment Recommendations - **Domestic Demand**: The recovery of excavators and non-excavator products is expected to drive domestic demand [36] - **Export Opportunities**: Markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to drive export recovery, with potential growth in Indonesia and India [36] - **Recommended Stocks**: Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Hengli Hydraulics, and Zhejiang Dingli are recommended, with attention to Shantui and Edd [1] Stock Performance and Valuation - **Sany Heavy Industry**: Latest closing price of 16.13 CNY, with a target price of 18.17 CNY and a 2024E PE of 22.10x [2] - **XCMG**: Latest closing price of 6.20 CNY, with a target price of 8.23 CNY and a 2024E PE of 11.27x [2] - **Zoomlion**: Latest closing price of 5.95 CNY, with a target price of 7.47 CNY and a 2024E PE of 11.90x [2] - **Liugong**: Latest closing price of 9.37 CNY, with a target price of 10.90 CNY and a 2024E PE of 12.84x [2] - **Hengli Hydraulics**: Latest closing price of 51.08 CNY, with a target price of 59.75 CNY and a 2024E PE of 25.67x [2] - **Zhejiang Dingli**: Latest closing price of 50.28 CNY, with a target price of 64.36 CNY and a 2024E PE of 11.72x [2]

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 56.33 CNY per share, based on a 30x PE multiple for 2025 [1][3] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic pet food manufacturer with strong brand positioning and profitability driven by its premiumization strategy [1] - Its overseas OEM experience and global supply chain layout provide competitive advantages [1] - The company is a pioneer in domestic pet food brands, leveraging diversified marketing to drive brand awareness and online sales growth [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.427 billion CNY, up 17.48% YoY, with pet food gross margin reaching 44.70%, up 12.78 percentage points YoY [1] - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 4.327 billion CNY, up 27.36% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 429 million CNY, up 60.69% YoY [19] - The company's own brand revenue reached 2.745 billion CNY in 2023, up 34.15% YoY, accounting for 63.44% of total revenue [19] Business Segments Domestic Market - The domestic business focuses on own-brand sales, with brands like "Myfoodie", "Fleigart", and "Wangzhenchun" covering the full range of pet food categories [19] - In 2023, domestic revenue reached 2.863 billion CNY, up 39.38% YoY, accounting for 66.17% of total revenue [19] Overseas Market - The overseas business started with OEM and expanded through acquisitions like "Waggin' Train" [19] - In 2023, overseas revenue reached 1.464 billion CNY, up 8.96% YoY, accounting for 33.83% of total revenue [19] Growth Drivers Product Innovation - The company has a comprehensive product matrix with over 1,300 SKUs, covering snacks, wet food, and dry food [26] - Premium products like "Fleigart" and "BARF" series have driven significant margin improvement [26] Marketing Strategy - The company employs celebrity endorsements, entertainment marketing, and co-branding to enhance brand awareness [55][56] - Online direct sales reached 866 million CNY in H1 2024, up 61.24% YoY, accounting for 35.85% of total revenue [59] Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding production capacity with new projects expected to increase total dry food capacity to over 200,000 tons [64][66] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.3% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 7.723 billion CNY in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow at a CAGR of 31.9% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 984 million CNY in 2026 [2] Valuation - The company is valued at 30x 2025 PE, higher than peers, reflecting its leading position in the domestic pet food market and strong growth potential [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for XianDai Intelligent with a target price of 18.77 CNY per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - XianDai Intelligent is a key player in China's new energy industry, particularly in lithium battery equipment, benefiting from the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector [1] - The company's success is attributed to its focus on R&D, customer-centric approach, and strategic partnerships, particularly with CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited) [1] - XianDai Intelligent has evolved from a single-product company to a platform-based enterprise, expanding its product lines and global presence [1] - The company's growth is closely tied to the development of the global new energy industry, with significant opportunities in both domestic and international markets [1] Company Overview - XianDai Intelligent was founded in 2002 and has grown into a global leader in new energy equipment, offering solutions in lithium battery, photovoltaic, 3C, and hydrogen energy equipment [12] - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 16.628 billion CNY, with lithium battery equipment accounting for 76% of total revenue [12] - The company has a strong R&D focus, with R&D expenses consistently around 10% of revenue, higher than industry peers by 4-5 percentage points [1] Industry Context - China's NEV industry has experienced rapid growth, with sales increasing from 4,884 units in 2010 to 9.5 million units in 2023, and penetration rates rising from 0.03% to 31.60% [10] - The global NEV market is also expanding, with sales growing from 38,000 units in 2011 to 13.76 million units in 2023, driven by advancements in battery technology and infrastructure [50][51] - The lithium battery industry has seen significant consolidation, with the number of battery manufacturers in China decreasing from 240 in 2015 to less than 100 in 2018, and leading companies like CATL dominating the market [54] Strategic Partnerships - XianDai Intelligent has a deep strategic relationship with CATL, which holds a 7.14% stake in the company as of Q1 2024 [42] - The partnership with CATL has enabled XianDai Intelligent to secure significant orders and participate in joint R&D projects, giving it a competitive edge in the lithium battery equipment market [42][44] Financial Projections - The report forecasts XianDai Intelligent's net profit to reach 1.96 billion CNY in 2024, 2.387 billion CNY in 2025, and 2.652 billion CNY in 2026, with revenue growth expected to stabilize around 10% annually [1][2] - The company's EBITDA is projected to grow from 3.037 billion CNY in 2022 to 3.609 billion CNY in 2026, with a corresponding improvement in ROE from 20.8% in 2022 to 16.1% in 2026 [2] Key Risks (Excluded as per instructions) - Risks such as macroeconomic fluctuations, inventory depreciation, and management risks are mentioned but not detailed in this summary [2]

Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产及物管行业 24 年第 36 周周报 网签低迷来访改善，房企盈利能力仍在下行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本周政策情况：存量房贷利率下调预期再起，试点保障房货币化配建。 中央政策方面，9 月 5 日，央行负责人在国新办新闻发布会上表示：目 前金融机构的平均法定存款准备金率大约为 7%，还有一定的降准空 间；而存贷款利率进一步下行面临一定的约束。9 月 6 日，根据中国房 地产报，存量房贷利率仍有下调的可能性。地方政策方面，本周上海开 启保障房货币化配建（根据上海住建委）；深圳公共资源交易中心一宗 宅地要求全部实行现房销售；重庆住建局取消二手房 2 年限售。 本周基本面情况：新房成交热度季节性回落，二手房成交维稳。据 Wind 及克尔瑞，本周 51 城新房成交面积 369.9 万方，环比下降 5.2%，同 比下降 25.7%，新房成交热度低于去年同期，当前新房成交热度季节 性回落。二手房方面，本周 13 城网签口径成交 133.4 万方，环比下降 11.6%，同比上升 4.3%，74 城认购口径 ...