[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 美国开启降息周期，或打开房贷利率下行空间 报告日期 2024-09-20 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 美联储超预期降息 50bp，开启新一轮降息周期。24 年 9 月 18 日，美 联储宣布将基准利率目标范围下调 50bp，降至 4.75%-5.00%，50bp 的降息较为超预期。本次降息代表 22 年 3 月开启的加息周期的结束， 22 年 3 月至 23 年 7 月美联储 11 次加息，累计加息幅度达 525bp，截 至 24 年 8 月有效联邦基金利率 5.33%，处于 02 年以来的历史高位。 ⚫ 美联储降息部分缓解中美息差压力，或打开我国房贷利率下行空间。 我国经历过三轮幅度较大的降息周期，分别为 08 年 9 月-08 年 12 月、 14 年 7 月-15 年 12 月、21 年 10 月至今。 ⚫ 08 年周期对应美国降息周期，07 年 9 月美国率先开始降息，拉开中美 息差，打开我国降息空间，在美国 08 年 10 月两次降息、12 月一次降 息的推动下，我国首套房贷利率 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas market share of domestic forklifts has significantly increased from 14.73% in 2019 to 29.61% in 2023, driven by the advantages of lithium battery technology and shorter delivery times [8][9] - The report emphasizes that the domestic lithium battery forklifts are expected to achieve a competitive edge globally, with a projected export scale of 229 billion, 259 billion, and 292 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026 [2][8] - The report identifies that the market share of electric forklifts in Europe and the Americas is expected to rise, with the domestic market share for 1+2 class forklifts in Europe reaching 16.58% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential [21][30] Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas Market Share and Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive landscape across different regions, noting that the market share of domestic forklifts in Asia reached 86.67% in 2023, with a shift in growth momentum towards 1+2 class forklifts [17][19] - In Europe, the market share of domestic forklifts has increased from 16.18% in 2020 to 25.27% in 2023, benefiting from the higher electric forklift adoption rate [21][22] - The Americas show a lower market share for domestic forklifts at 25.68% in 2023, with a competitive landscape characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic [27][28] Section 2: Lithium Battery Forklift Competitiveness - The report outlines that domestic lithium battery forklifts benefit from a mature supply chain, leading to a cost advantage of over 1,000 USD compared to overseas products [2][9] - It highlights that the cost of lithium batteries constitutes about 24% of the total cost of lithium forklifts, and the decline in lithium prices is expected to further enhance cost competitiveness [2][9] - The report notes that the maintenance requirements for lithium battery forklifts are lower, mitigating previous disadvantages in after-sales service for domestic brands [2][9] Section 3: Future Market Potential - The report forecasts that the export scale of domestic forklifts is expected to reach 229 billion CNY in 2024, with leading companies like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group positioned to benefit from international market expansion [2][8] - It emphasizes that the growth in market share for 1+2 class forklifts will be driven by the ongoing lithium battery adoption, particularly in regions with high electric forklift penetration [21][30] - The report concludes that the competitive landscape will continue to evolve, with domestic brands expected to gain further market share through enhanced product performance and cost advantages [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 25.00 CNY per share, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - The company is a leading luggage manufacturer with a strong position in the B2B segment and is expanding into the apparel OEM business, which is expected to drive future growth [1] - The B2B business, including luggage and apparel fabric manufacturing, is expected to maintain steady growth, with the apparel segment offering significant growth potential [1] - The B2C business, particularly the self-owned brand "90 Points," is expanding overseas, and the partnership with Xiaomi is expected to open new growth opportunities, especially with the launch of Xiaomi's car in 2024 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 4.298 billion CNY in 2024 to 6.698 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 35.3% from 2024 to 2025 [2] - Net profit is expected to increase from 372 million CNY in 2024 to 514 million CNY in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 221.7% in 2024 [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.55 CNY in 2024 to 2.14 CNY in 2026 [2] Business Segments B2B Business - The luggage segment is expected to grow steadily, with the company increasing its market share among existing clients such as Dell, HP, and Asus [1] - The apparel and fabric segment, bolstered by the acquisition of Shanghai Jiale, is expected to become a second growth curve, with new clients like Adidas, Puma, and MUJI [1][20] - The company's global production base, particularly in Indonesia, provides cost advantages and flexibility in meeting client demands [77][80] B2C Business - The self-owned brand "90 Points" is expanding overseas and innovating in materials and functionality, while the partnership with Xiaomi is expected to drive growth, especially with the launch of Xiaomi's car in 2024 [1][10] - The domestic luggage market is highly fragmented, offering significant growth potential for the company to increase its market share [13][97] Industry Analysis - The global luggage market is expected to grow, with China's market projected to reach 25.28 billion USD by 2028, driven by increasing travel demand [97] - The apparel and fabric manufacturing industry is significantly larger than the luggage industry, providing substantial growth opportunities for the company [92] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong client base, including leading brands like Nike, Dell, and Xiaomi, and a global production network that enhances its supply chain efficiency [76][77] - The acquisition of Shanghai Jiale has expanded the company's capabilities into the apparel and fabric manufacturing sector, offering vertical integration and cost advantages [20][92] - The company's focus on innovation and design has resulted in multiple awards, enhancing its brand recognition and product appeal [101][102]

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 洽洽食品（002557.SZ） 新推股权激励，激发组织活力 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：公司推出 2024 年股票期权激励计划草案。公司拟向 29 名核心 高管及骨干授予 478 万份股票期权，其中首次授予 418 万份股票期权， 预留 60 万份股票期权。行权价格（含预留）为 19.97 元/份。 ⚫ 激励目标：收入利润双考核，打造员工企业利益共同体。（1）公司层 面：参考激励计划增速目标，触发值 Am-2024/2025/2026 年公司主营 收入目标为 75.4/85.7/97.5 亿元，同比+10.8%/+13.6%/+13.8%；扣非 归母净利润目标 8.6/10.2/12.1 亿元，同比+21.6%/+18.5%/+18.6%； 扣非净利率 11.4%/11.9%/12.4%。目标值 An-2024/2025/2026 年公司 主营收入目标为 76.2/87.7/100.8 亿元，同比+12.0%/+15.0%/+15.0%; 扣非归母净利润 8.8/10.6/12.7 亿元，同比+24.0%/+20.2%/+ ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|食品饮料 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 26.73 per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of RMB 15.20 [4][8]. Core Views - The company plans to repurchase shares to enhance employee stock ownership and equity incentives, reflecting confidence in its development and future prospects. The total repurchase amount is set between RMB 9 billion and RMB 18 billion, with a maximum price of RMB 27.01 per share, representing 0.5%-1.0% of the total share capital [2][3]. - In the pig farming segment, the company has demonstrated a significant cost advantage, with a year-on-year sales increase of 18.62% in live pigs, totaling 19.05 million heads sold from January to August 2024. The comprehensive breeding cost has decreased from RMB 14.6 per kg to RMB 13.8 per kg, with a breeding and delivery rate of 87% [2][3]. - The poultry segment remains stable, with a slight decrease in chicken sales by 0.2% year-on-year, totaling 754 million chickens sold. The comprehensive cost of raising chickens has decreased to RMB 11.8-12 per kg, maintaining a leading position in the industry [2][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 1.57, RMB 1.91, and RMB 2.55, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was RMB 83.725 billion, with a projected growth rate of 28.9%. For 2023, revenue is expected to reach RMB 89.921 billion, with a growth rate of 7.4%. The forecast for 2024 is RMB 109.512 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 21.8% [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was RMB 5.289 billion, with a significant increase projected for 2024 at RMB 10.439 billion, representing a growth rate of 263.4% [3][8]. - The company's EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be RMB 15.761 billion, with a substantial increase in profitability anticipated in the following years [3][8].

Xml [Table_Title] 新能源汽车行业 以旧换新政策催化，优质车型周期开启 9 月销售旺季 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 新能源汽车批售口径渗透率突破 44.8%，彰显国内电动车市场韧性需 求。据中汽协，8 月新能源汽车产销量分别为 109.2 万辆和 110.0 万 辆，环比均+11.0%，同比分别+29.6%和+30.0%。批售口径下新能源汽 车渗透率 44.84%，环比+1.03pct，同比+12.08pct。伴随 2024 年 7 月 25 日中央"以旧换新"电动车补贴政策加码，中央-地方点面结合激活 换购新车需求，叠加国内优质车型放量，有望开启 9 月销售旺季。 ⚫ 比亚迪高端化+出海巩固全球格局，零跑、小鹏新车型驱动交付拐点 显现。据比亚迪官微，8 月比亚迪电动乘用车销量 37.09 万辆，同比 +35.30%，环比+8.82%，24Q2 后新车上市提速，2025 款汉家族（第 五代 DM 技术）、夏（中大型 MPV）、海豹 06GT、腾势 Z9/Z9GT （首次搭载"易三方"）、豹 8（华为首次智能化合作）、仰望 U9 等 新车型陆续上市打开销量空间。据各车企官微， ...

[Table_Contacts] | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|----------------------------|---------------------| | [Table_Title] 石基信息（ 002153.SZ ） | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 证券研究报告 \n买入 | | | 当前价格 | 5.56 元 | | ARR 继续快速增长，基本面拐点逐步验证 | 合理价值 | 8.84 元 | | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 报告日期 | 2024-09-19 | ⚫ 公司业绩持续保持较快增长。24 年上半年公司实现收入 13.8 亿元，同 比增加 15.1%；归母净利润 2472 万元，同比增加 10.8%；扣非归母净 利润 2038 万元，同比增加 16.4%。24H1 毛利率小幅下滑，主因系低 毛利率的硬件营收占比增长较快（24H1 第三方硬件配套业务、自有智 能商用设备营收同比增长 33%、28%），未来随着云化业务增 ...

[公司评级 Table_Invest] 买入 当前价格 16.03 元 合理价值 23.18 元 报告日期 2024-09-18 [Table_Finance] 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 6370 7411 7813 8930 10212 增长率（%） 16.1% 16.3% 5.4% 14.3% 14.3% EBITDA（百万元） 612 678 903 1001 1152 归母净利润（百万元） 579 744 793 890 1034 增长率（%） 7.5% 28.4% 6.7% 12.2% 16.2% EPS（元/股） 1.47 1.90 1.55 1.73 2.01 市盈率（P/E） 21.29 14.59 10.37 9.25 7.96 ROE（%） 17.0% 18.8% 17.8% 17.7% 18.2% EV/EBITDA 18.46 12.94 6.26 5.16 3.98 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 川仪股份（603100.SH） 国产工业自动化仪器仪表领先 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|化学制药 [Table_Title] 百利天恒-U（688506.SH） B01D1 闪耀 ESMO，全球注册临床可期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公 司 在 2024ESMO 首 次 公 布 核 心 产 品 BL-B01D1 在尿路上皮癌、食管鳞癌及胆道癌中的数据，其中 UC 数据尤为亮眼。 2.2mg/kg 组 27 例疗效可评估，大多数患者均经受抗 PD-(L)1 和含铂 化疗，14 例经受 ADC 治疗，实现 ORR 40.7%，confirmed 33.3%。 在 12 例化疗经治线数仅为 1 的患者中实现 ORR 75%，6 个月 PFS 率 100%。在 EGFR 和 HER3 各表达水平下均观察到抗肿瘤活性。安全 性方面，≥G3 TRAE 发生率 52.9%，治疗相关 SAE 35.3%，大部分血 液学毒性为 1-2 级，未观察到治疗相关死亡及 ILD（来源：公司官网）。 ⚫ BMS 表达对开展 B01D1 全球注册临床的信心。BMS 召开 ESMO2024 投资者交流会议，BMS 认为 B01D1 在胃肠道和生殖泌尿系统癌症中 表现出可 ...