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五洲特纸:24Q2盈利略承压,浆纸一体化持续推进
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-18 01:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.47 CNY per share, based on a 13x PE for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.431 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232 million CNY, up 2013.39% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.705 billion CNY, a 7.71% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 99 million CNY, up 457.68% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - Profitability in Q2 2024 faced temporary pressure, with a gross margin of 11.24%, up 4.49 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.72 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 5.84%, up 4.72 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.98 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company anticipates price pressures on terminal food cardboard and the impact of high-priced pulp, but expects to improve profitability in H2 2024 through price increases, production of self-made pulp, and enhanced cost control [1][2]. - The company's core product output and sales showed stable growth, with a production volume of 580,800 tons of mechanical paper in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.57%, and sales of 566,100 tons, up 32.82% year-on-year. The company has diversified its product offerings, supporting future growth [1][2]. - The integration of pulp and paper production continues to advance, with 15 production lines established and a total designed capacity of 2.096 million tons. The company’s self-owned pulp line in Jiangxi has started production, aiding in cost reduction and smoothing out industry cycles [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 540 million CNY, 710 million CNY, and 840 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The expected revenue growth rates are 21.6% for 2024, 26.8% for 2025, and 15.3% for 2026 [2][8]. - The report indicates an EBITDA of 541 million CNY for 2023, with projections of 621 million CNY for 2024, 1.032 billion CNY for 2025, and 1.516 billion CNY for 2026 [2][8].
传媒行业:AI行业周报,谷歌发布智能语音助手Gemini Live,昆仑万维推出AI音乐平台
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-18 01:36
Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业:AI 行业周报 谷歌发布智能语音助手 Gemini Live,昆仑万维推出 AI 音乐平台 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪:根据 SimilarWeb,上周(2024/8/5 - 2024/8/11) 国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为:kimi 504.58 万次,环比 上升 4.02%;文心一言 410.22 万次,环比上升 1.85%;通义千问 178.18 万次,环比下降 7.06%;豆包 232.27 万次,环比上升 17.50%; 智谱清言 73.82 万次,环比下降 9.25%;讯飞星火 54.31 万次,环 比下降 1.13%;天工 AI 48.34 万次,环比下降 0.13%;腾讯元宝 21.75 万次,环比上升 7.98%。App 下载量看,根据七麦数据,kimi 8.30 万 次,环比下降 14.12%;文心一言 10.33 万次,环比下降 1.66%;通 义千问 7.58 万次,环比下降 36.69%;豆包 114.35 万次,环比上升 ...
万兴科技:24H1业绩有所承压,AI商业价值化探索进行时
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-17 12:36
[Table_Title] 万兴科技(300624.SZ) 24H1 业绩有所承压,AI 商业价值化探索进行时 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: 24H1 营收同比略减,AI 商业化探索进行时。24H1,公司营收 7.1 亿 元,同减 1.8%。一方面,23H1 公司营收和利润的高基数是 24H1 营 收和利润同比减少的重要原因。另一方面,公司 AI 加持业务和产品的 商业化变现路径仍在探索,营收端体现尚不明显。我们认为,随着 AI 技术在各场景的深化和细化,公司有望推出更具创意的 AI 应用,差异 化的功能有利于其商业化落地进程。 毛利率有所下降,受 AI 算力相关投入增加影响。24H1,公司毛利率为 93.8%,同减 1.6pct,营业成本 4398 万元,同增 32.6%,主因系公司 加大 AI 投入带动算力相关费用快速增长。2024 年 1 月,公司推出"天 幕"大模型。我们认为,尽管公司对于 AI 业务的投入短期影响毛利率, 但其对 AI 大模型的定位以赋能为主,后续算力资源投入将维持在合理 范围,对于毛利率的影响有限。 AI 技术赋能各项业务和产品,商业化落地持续探索。当前,公司不仅 利 ...
东方电缆:陆缆贡献营收增势,全球布局巩固韧性
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-17 12:36
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 52.83 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 48.48 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance slightly exceeded market expectations, with H1 revenue reaching 4.068 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 644 million CNY, up 4.47% year-on-year. The significant revenue growth was driven by a substantial increase in land cable system revenue [2][3]. - The high gross margin from submarine cables remains stable, with a sustainable growth in backlog orders. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.769 billion CNY from submarine cable systems and marine engineering, a year-on-year decrease of 5.01%, accounting for 43.48% of total revenue. The average gross margin for submarine cable systems is approximately 40%, while for marine engineering, it is about 33% [2]. - The company's strategic layout includes vertical extension and deep cultivation in the industry, with the establishment of a future factory in Ningbo Beilun and a southern industrial base in Guangdong Yangjiang, which can radiate to international markets [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.76 CNY, 2.74 CNY, and 3.23 CNY per share, respectively. Considering the company's industry position, competitive advantages, profitability, and growth potential, a PE valuation of 30 times for 2024 is deemed appropriate [3]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 8.587 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 17.5%. The net profit is expected to reach 1.211 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 21.1% [4][10].
食品饮料行业:对标安井,解析千味渠道力
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-16 02:38
[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|食品饮料 2024 年 8 月 13 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | | | | | | 对标安井,解析千味渠道力 | | [Tabl分析师: | 符蓉 | 分析师: | 吴思颖 | 分析师: | 高鸿 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号:S0260523120002 | | SAC 执证号:S0260523120012 | | SAC 执证号:S0260522010001 | | | | | | | SFC CE.no: BUQ312 | | | 021-38003552 | | 021-38003556 | | 021-38003690 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | wusi ...
证券Ⅱ行业行业专题研究:私募股权专题研究:优化募投管退,壮大耐心资本
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-16 02:38
[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|证券Ⅱ 2024 年 8 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 私募股权专题研究:优化募投管退,壮大耐心资本 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师: 陈福 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: | --- | |------------------------| | 执证号:S0260517050001 | | SFC CE.no: BOB667 | | 0755-82535901 | | chenfu@gf.com.cn | ⚫ 我国私募股权行业经过迅速发展,进入规范发展阶段。(1)20 世纪 90 年代,私募股权进入早期萌芽阶段。 随着我国第一个风投机构成立以及外资进入,资本市场制度不断建设,私募股权市场萌芽。(2)随着政策不断 完善,私募股权市场迎来快速发展。2008 年,全国社保基金获准自主投资经国家发改委批准的产业基金和在国 家发改委备案的市场化股权投资基金。2014 年,互联网技术广泛应用,互联网创新成为风口,助力我国私募股 权市场快速发展。(3)现今,我国私募股权已进入规范发展阶段。2017 年,证监会、中基协等相关部 ...
重庆啤酒:费用扰动短期业绩,表现符合预期
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-16 02:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Brewery (600132 SH) with a target price of 71 69 yuan per share [4] Core Views - Chongqing Brewery reported H1 2024 revenue of 8 86 billion yuan (+4 2% YoY) and net profit of 900 million yuan (+4 2% YoY) Q2 2024 revenue was 4 57 billion yuan (+1 5% YoY) with net profit of 450 million yuan (-6 0% YoY) [2] - Beer sales volume in Q2 2024 increased by 1 5% YoY to 917 thousand kiloliters while revenue per ton remained flat at 4981 6 yuan/kiloliter [2] - Premium product revenue declined by 1 9% YoY in Q2 2024 due to weak demand in the catering and high-end beer segments while mainstream and economy products grew by 5 1% and 10 7% respectively [2] - Cost per ton increased by 2 1% YoY in Q2 2024 to 2468 2 yuan/kiloliter driven by higher depreciation and aluminum costs Gross margin declined by 1 0 pct YoY to 50 5% [2] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 100% over the past two years and is expected to continue with mid-term dividends [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 15 37 billion yuan in 2024E to 16 34 billion yuan in 2026E representing a CAGR of 3 1% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024E to 1 55 billion yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 5 6% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2 87 yuan in 2024E to 3 20 yuan in 2026E [3] - The company's PE ratio is estimated at 21x for 2024E declining to 19x by 2026E [3] Valuation - The report values Chongqing Brewery at 25x 2024E PE implying a target price of 71 69 yuan per share [2] - Current share price stands at 60 65 yuan representing a potential upside of 18 2% [4]
农林牧渔行业:行业景气继续上行,7月上市公司生猪出栏量保持平稳
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-16 02:08
[Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 行业景气继续上行,7 月上市公司生猪出栏量保持平稳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点: ⚫ 猪价再创年内新高,母猪产能恢复或较为缓慢。随着前期产能去化效 应显现,8 月上旬以来猪价持续上行,猪价再创年内新高,根据搜猪网, 当前价格水平突破 21 元/公斤。根据 wind 数据,8 月 9 日自繁自养群 体头均盈利为 587 元/头。产能方面,当前行业资产负债率整体处于高 位,近期后备母猪价格上涨较缓慢,亦侧面说明当前行业补栏积极性相 对一般,根据涌益咨询数据,7 月份能繁母猪存栏量环比增长 1.79%。 ⚫ 上市公司跟踪:根据各公司月度经营数据公告,2024 年 7 月各上市公 司生猪整体出栏量保持稳定。出栏结构方面,受仔猪市场需求回落影 响,7 月上市公司整体仔猪销售占比继续下滑。(1)出栏量:7 月各上 市公司商品猪出栏量合计 1251 万头,环比增长 10.4%,同比增长 3.64%;剔除牧原后的各上市公司商品猪出栏量合计 635.1 万头,环比 增长 1.41%,同比减少 0.3%。24 年 1-7 月,各上市公司商品猪出栏 量同比增长 4.6%;剔除 ...
银行行业:人民币套利交易能否终结
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-16 02:08
[Table_Title] 银行行业 [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|银行 2024 年 8 月 14 日 证券研究报告 人民币套利交易能否终结 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师: [Tabl | 倪军 | 分析师: | 王先爽 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号:S0260518020004 | | SAC 执证号:S0260520040002 | | | | | SFC CE.no: BQV910 | | | 021-38003646 | | 021-38003645 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | wangxianshuang@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意,倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人,不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | ...
英维克:业绩持续增长,液冷持续导入引领未来增长
GF SECURITIES· 2024-08-16 01:37
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 21.43 CNY and a reasonable value of 28.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in performance, with a significant increase in liquid cooling technology leading future growth [1]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.83 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.24% [1]. - The temperature control room business has experienced substantial growth, supported by large customer orders, with revenue of 856 million CNY in the first half of 2024, up 85.91% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s energy storage business revenue was approximately 1.6 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [1]. - The introduction of liquid cooling technology is accelerating, with expected significant growth in revenue from data centers and computing equipment [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.91 billion CNY, 6.47 billion CNY, and 8.34 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 531 million CNY, 693 million CNY, and 907 million CNY [1][2]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow from 684 million CNY in 2024 to 1.13 billion CNY in 2026 [2]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.71 CNY, 0.93 CNY, and 1.22 CNY, respectively [3]. - The company’s ROE is expected to increase from 18.3% in 2024 to 22.9% in 2026 [3].